Thursday November 27th

No Selections

We have some Sand back tomorrow. Yesterday and today was always likely to be pretty hard to deal with. I think we competed quite well yesterday. I am Quite happy with Most of todays Message. Dominated by Taunton and Uttoxeter. Feel I have prised open a few races. It is a day where there could be a lot of sense in having some each way doubles in the Uncompetetive races. I love the Selling race at 1.10 where there is an unraced horse that has caught my eye in a race where the favourite may be vulnerable. I think its also a day to consider a few small bets and savers as well. I have done 9 previews. Selections in most of these. I shall not reccomend one outstanding bet on either account as I dont really know that one stands out. Any Best Bet today would have to have been an each way double or involve Savers and I dont really want to do that. I will let the message stand on its own - I quite like it - and stay with stronger bets when we get the sand back tomorrow. There is no hurry and its just a time of year I get a bit over cautious in and you will have to bear with me. I know you would really appreciate a strong best bet of the day but you wouldnt want me inventing that and pretending it was just to satisfy the need for one.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


Quick look back at Yesterday. I had No advised bets. Plenty of excitement from the mentions. The Lingfield analysis only picked out two short priced favourites and one won . The day started in a very frustrating way Totally Scottish looked like he had won and the race looked in the bag before he was just caught late. I still cant believe he didnt win that. It got no better a few minutes later as Forest Pennant was second. Then morehard luck as Life A Lord broke down when in the lead in a 2 horse race. Far too early to say how he would have finished but breaking down is not great luck. What A Friend then came second to increase the frustration especially as he was another than looked to have the race in the bag. I shouldnt count him really as I didnt really steer you on or away from that horse. At that stage we had a 2 2 2 PU record in 4 races and 2 of these looked to have won their races. Sninfia did win after that at 9/2 which must have been very welcome to those betting in all races in the Mail. I didnt fancy much at all strongly yesterday but most selections ran very well and whilst it was not a classic it didnt turn out to be a bad one either .

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


UTTOXETER 12:30 -JENKINSONS CATERERS 1ST CHOICE FOR WEDDINGS NOVICES' HURDLE (DIV I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m

2/1 Spud, 7/2 Desert Star, 5/1 First Blue, 7/1 Sonic Anthem, 12/1 Bedizen, 14/1 Kyles Prince, 16/1 Dante´s Diamond, Our Jim, Penny Island, 33/1 Makfly, Tapimix, Weet For Ever, 50/1 Rambling Socks, 100/1 Pasqualina Mia.

* This is a 2 mile Novice Hurdle that Looks uncompetetive
* I dont want DESERT STAR as he is unraced aged 7 and these types struggle at shorter trips
* Since 1993 there has been 1480 Novice Hurdles at 2 Miles - at any time of year
* Unraced horses aged 7 or more had a poor 4-419 record in these 1480 races
* Thats any 2 Mile novice hurdle at any time and age 7 is the Point you should not bet them
* DESERT STAR was a very good flat horse - and has been supported on his first run in 957 days
* Henrietta Knight will want to win for the Queen as well
* I will oppose him but I would be nervous about laying him
* FIRST BLUE is a 4 year old that comes from a Bumper - Would not make him a negative
* Statistically 4 year old Bumper runners are weak in November but improve a lot in December
* I would say overall they slightly underperform but not enough to make him a negative
* SPUD comes from Bumpers as well
* Both SPUD and FIRST BLUE were trained last year by Paul Webber
* SPUD was subsequently bought by Harry Findlay and Moved to Phillip Hobbs
* Both now face each other and have theire first runs over hurdles
* Neither are negatives and neither stand out as horses I can suggest with great confidence
* SONIC ANTHEM comes from handicap hurdles
* I am fine with handicappers as long as they meet tight conditions
* They must have won before - and SONIC ANTHEM has at least done that
* SONIC ANTHEM may be worth considering as the natural each way bet
* Types like SONIC ANTHEM win when there is no one horse that has outstanding potential
* SONIC ANTHEM will have a great chance if SPUD or FIRST BLUE fail to shine first time over hurdles
* I think SPUD might just have more class than SONIC ANTHEM though in the long term
* Whether he can deal with him today or not is another matter
* I expect SONIC ANTHEM to get placed - He could win - But he also may just get done for class
* SPUD is the most likely winner-I feel if you bet him youd be better to consider an each way double
* I think the Selection should be a split stake bet as follows

SELECTION - SONIC ANTHEM Win Bet 5/1
SELECTION - SPUD (Saver ) 7/4

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TAUNTON 12:40 - BEAUTY OF BATH MAIDEN HURDLE (DIV I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

4/7 Shore Thing, 6/1 Le Chiffre, 15/2 Red Birr, 10/1 Genari, 16/1 Captain Becket, 33/1 Popcorn Rosie, Rhetoric, Rock Star Appeal, Shava, 40/1 Golden Sprite, 50/1 Listen Son, 66/1 Forest Lodge, Grand Sefton.

* This is a 17f Maiden Hurdle
*I dont see SHORE THING being beaten
* Heavy rain turning the ground soft would be the only danger I could see
* He already holds RED BIRR comfortably and he may not stay
* I didnt like RHETORIC (Coming from chases) or CAPTAIN BECKETT (Trip)
* SHORE THING has been backed into 4/9 but I see no strong alternative

SELECTION - No Bet

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UTTOXETER 1:00 - JENKINSONS CATERERS 1ST CHOICE FOR WEDDINGS NOVICES' HURDLE (DIV II) (CLASS ) (4yo+) 2m

9/4 Pebrock, 11/4 Colisay, 11/2 Can´t Buy Time, 7/1 Whistle Dixie, 12/1 Exit To Luck, 14/1 Double Intruder, Stravara, 16/1 Hiddensee, 20/1 Penfull, 25/1 Snake Skin, 33/1 Go On Jack, 50/1 Mystik Megan, Sun Bian.

* This is a 2 Mile Novice Hurdle - Division 2 of the 12.30 race
* In that 12.30 race I oppose an unraced 7 year old
* In this race COLISAY is an unraced 8 year old and I am against him
* He was a class act on the flat - albeit a bit quirky
* He may bolt up here but he will be the first unraced 8 year old to win in recent times at this trip
* Since 1993 there has been 1480 Novice Hurdles at 2 Miles - at any time of year
* Look at the record of Unraced 8 year olds and they have a 0-164 record
* Perhaps its just a matter of time before one wins but until they have I am against them
* PEBROCK is owned by Harry Findlay just as the favourite in the 12.30 race - Division 1
* PEBROCK is a 4 year old and a once raced Bumper horse
* In 382 similar races in November and December horses with identical profiles had a 2-23 record
* This just illustrates to me that PEDROCK has no strong reasons why he cant win
* He is described as "Not Overbig" which would worry me a bit given the current ground issues
* Dont see why should risk unraced STRAVARA from a yard that last had a Novice Hurdle winner in 1993
* I dont see HIDDENSEE or EXIT TO LUCK as horses I could bet
* CAN'T BUY TIME has had 2 runs and drops back from 2m 4f
* On the Positive side several winners of similar races had similar profiles
* You have to bear in mind the fact he has ran twice and this sudden drop in trip may not suit him
* Plenty of winners in his pedigree at longer trips and his future probably lies over much further
* Thats certainly how I feel about WHISTLE DIXIE who I think wont be winning this
* DOUBLE INTRUDER has to be watched in the Market
* This race is about How well PEBROCK copes with conditions
* I couldnt bet COLISAY against him and I wont see CANT BUY TIME as a serious danger
* CANT BUY TIME does come with some concerns though
* Given the choice of CANT BUY TIME or PEBROCK It is tight
* I would choose CANT BUY TIME with more experience and feel he is the best selection

SELECTION - CANT BUY TIME

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TAUNTON 1:10 - SOUTHWEST-RACING.COM JUVENILE NOVICES' SELLING HURDLE (CLASS 5) (3yo) 2m1f

10/11 Ardesia, 5/1 Ful Of Grace, Mujamead, 6/1 Dr Dream, 8/1 Watch Out, 33/1 Acosta, Straight Face, 50/1 Fashion Accessory.

* This is a Juvenile Novice's Selling Hurdle over 17f
* The issue is whether ARDESIA can defy his penalty
* ARDESIA has to give weight away and he sex allowance to some
* The best way of determining whether he can do that is to look at how others have faired
* In the last 15 years November and December has seen just 27 of these races at 16f and 17f
* In these 27 races there were 11 horses that had won a race and that had a penalty
* All 11 of these lost and thats a worry for me
* Before I could bet ARDESIA Id want to see evidence of horses that showed penaltys were overcome
* I looked at All of these races all year round
* There has been just 41 of these races - They are all run between June and December
* I looked at penalty carriers like ARDESIA in these races
* All 20 Lost and this factor worries me about ARDESIA
* 6 of the 20 started favourite and 2 were odds on
* I have to Oppose ARDESIA in light of this especially as he is a short price
* MUJAMEAD also has a penalty - and as we know all 20 that had failed at any time of year
* I suppose you can argue he is experienced but hes modest - won despite a howler at the last 10 days ago
* He has also been claimed and runs for a new stable and thats an added worry
* The stats say oppose penalty carriers so I will oppose him as welll
* ACOSTA -FASHION ACCESSORY are "unraced" and "unfancied" at 33/1 or more

* This suggests there are 4 possible bets here
* FULL OF GRACE - STRAIGHT FACE - DR DREAM - WATCH OUT

* There are serious factors both for FULL OR GRACE and against her
* The big Positive for FULL OF GRACE is that he is a David Pipe horse
* In this Taunton race David Pipe has a 1-1 record and his father Martin Pipe had a remakable 6-9 record
* They have won this race between them 7 times before
* Between them they have sent 6 Fillies into this race and 5 won
* However None of these were "Once raced " fillies and I am Just unsure about that
* There has been 41 of these races at all times of year and at any trip
* Once raced fillies had a unimpressive 2-55 record
* All 14 that tried it at Taunton Lost - All 21 that tried it at this distance also lost
* The only 2 that managed it were all placed last time out
* On trainer stats FULL OF GRACE should be automatic selection
* The fact she has ran just once - and was well beaten in that does worry me
* Statistically I ought to look elsewhere
* DR DREAM and WATCH OUT were 2nd and 3rd in the same race at Towcester 4 days ago
* That could be a big advantage - After all 4 of the last 5 winners had ran within the previous fortnight
* They both improved a lot from their first runs and there wont be much between them
* Watched the race on video - Liked them both - but there is nothing between them
* The advantage DR DREAM has (half a length) could be taken away by WATCH OUT's pilot
* WATCH OUT has a professional rider today as opposed to a claimer
* I feel that this will be one by one of these or the Unraced STRAIGHT FACE
* STRAIGHT FACE is an unraced Michael Wigham horse who has been backed from 25/1 to 10/1
* Obvioulsy the market move is fascinating from a clever stable
* The Market support alone is tempting me to make STRAIGHT FACE the selection
* Especially as unraced horses are fine in this race
* The other thing I like is that M Wigham has had only 1 winner aged 3 over hurdles
* That was ALSO in a Novice Selling Hurdle and was a debutant at this time of year (Parsley´s Return)
* Therefore I willmake STRAIGHT FACE the selection

SELECTION - STRAIGHT FACE 8/1

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UTTOXETER 1:30 - JENKINSONS CATERERS 1ST CHOICE FOR CONFERENCE NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 3m

6/4 Nevada Red, 5/2 Mortimers Cross, 9/2 Mr Tim, 10/1 Ragador, 14/1 Lil´Rascal, 20/1 Ellies Horse, Tigu, 33/1 Byways Boy, 50/1 Dryureyesmate.

* This is a very weak Novice Hurdle
* Last year was the same and a 50/1 winner popped up and that may happen again
* Clearly the weakest profile of the favourites is MORTIMERS CROSS
* He has no hurdling experience and comes from Bumpers
* There has been 71 of these novice hurdles at this time of year
* 6 came from Ungraded Bumpers as he did but None had 3 or more prevous runs and only 2 failed to win
* With MORTIMERS CROSS I am a bit concerned about how well soft ground will suit as well
* I have to prefer NEVADA RED from this pair not least because he will appreciate conditions
* Neither have convincing profiles and it depends on what strength in depth there is in the race
* MR TIM doesnt look obvious but he is now with the same trainer that won this with a 50/1 chance last year
* Conditions are fine for him and he is rated Higher than NEVADA RED by the handicapper
* RAGADOR will be a chaser long term - You can assume he might want to show more than he did last time
* Then again this is an awful race and his last run bettered all his opponents latest run on Racing Post Ratings
* RAGADOR has also been quite well backed and you have to have him on any shortlist in such a bad race
* I dont see ELLIES HORSE as being good enough
* NEVADA RED is one option in an each way double
* I think NEVADA RED has a stronger profile than Mortimers Cross
* Frustration lies in the fact I Cant rule out something un-obvious beating both
* That may well be RAGADOR

SELECTION - Small win bet on RAGADOR but thats partly a guess

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TAUNTON 2:15 - AUDREY CHUDLEIGH MEMORIAL MAIDEN HURDLE (DIV II) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

2/1 Simondiun, 4/1 Australia Day, Garrulous, 11/2 Dovedale, 10/1 Raise Again, 14/1 Award Winning, High Tech Made, 16/1 Sagunt, 20/1 Chilbury Hill, 100/1 Imperial Amber, Lady Duxyana, Mr Joe Platinum, Secret Cavern.

* Maiden Hurdle over 17f
* Hard to call as there are issues about all of these
* SIMONDIUN is an unraced 4 year old but he was decent on the Flat
* His trainer Paul Nicholls has a 2-4 record with unraced horses in this race
* SIMONDIUN is a little unsteady in the market but there is no reason why he cant win if good enough
* The problem with AUSTRALIA DAY is whether he will pull hard and get home
* He didnt settle well last time - he does have some stamina worries and he was a 7f horse on the flat
* I also dont like the fact he was 66/1 last time out - He has to have some doubts about his chance
* GARRULOUS comes from Handicaps - Hard to judge- None of the 29 winners came via handicaps though
* However only 9 tried and I dont see that as a great stat
* DOVEDALE also has question marks as a 7 year old Mare coming back in trip
* Females aged 7 or more have a pretty miserable record - They are 1-79 at this time of year
* AWARD WINNING and CHILBURY HILL come from Bumpers - they have 0-30 record in these races
* I couldnt see any reason why 1 horse had to be picked over the other
* Perhaps GARRULOUS each way at 7/2 makes most sense
* His Trainer G L Moore is interesting when sending handicappers into Maiden Hurdles
* He has an interesting 4-6 record and 3 were debutants and in November
* May be worth siding with GARRULOUS each way

SELECTION - GARRULOUS Each Way

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TAUNTON 2:45 -LEATH JEWELLERS "NATIONAL HUNT" MARES ONLY NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m3f110y

7/4 Owlesbury Dream, 7/2 Takotna, 9/2 Taralina, 11/2 Aimigayle, 8/1 Miss Midnight, 14/1 Pia Jane, 16/1 Thebelloftheball, 40/1 Mandalay Lady.

* Mares Novice Hurdle
* I would have to prefer OWLESBURY DREAM over TAKOTNA as "Most likely winner"
* I do feel TAKOTNA has to be considered as the better value each way bet though
* There dont look many other runners and there is a form line that gives her a chane
* OWLESBURY DREAM has Listed class form in Bumpers. Horses that had that had a 4-9 record in similar races
* She was quite impressive over hurdles last time and I dont see many I would want to take her on with
* TARALINA has ran in Bumpers this season and thats a weak sign statistically
* Bumper runners are far better when unraced this year
* Inexperienced 4 year olds like AIMIGAYLE dont score that well
* MISS MIDNIGHT is looking rather exposed
* I dont think PIA JANE will be good enouugh
* TAKOTNA must have a good chance - She needed her last race
* On a line through the 4th (Petrovka ) - TAKOTNA has every chance
* Both TAKOTNA and OWLESBURY DREAM Beat Petrovska a similar distance last time
* Considering the betting I will go with TAKOTNA each way at about 3/1

SELECTION - TAKOTNA Each Way (Small stakes)

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TAUNTON 3:20 - GOLDEN KNOB HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-100) 2m7f110y

9/2 Coeur D´Alene, 11/2 Tradingup, 7/1 September Moon, 8/1 Charlie´s Double, Outside Investor, 12/1 Radbrook Hall, 14/1 He´s The Biz, Pitton Prince, 16/1 Croc An Oir, Ironside, Karoo, Lambrini Mist, 20/1 Oakfield Legend, Peveril Pride, 25/1 Saby, 33/1 Oxybau.

* This is a handicap chase just short of 3 miles
* Pretty nasty race - Taunton has had 34 of these races at this time of year
* I will attempt to do a shortlist based on these 34 races
* 31 of the 34 winners all had the following in common
* They were all 20/1 or shorter
* There were all either 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out or didnt finish the race
* They all had under 7 weeks absence
* They all ran at 2m 5f or more last time out (others 1-50)
* They had all registered a 1-2-3 finish in their last 6 runs
* This still leaves an uncomfortably big shortlist of 7 horses - as follows
* Coeur d'Alene -Tradingup - He's The Biz - Outside Investor - Radbrook Hall - Lambrini Mist - September Moon

SELECTION - None

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TAUNTON 3:50 - SOPS IN WINE HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-120) 2m3f110y

5/4 Mickmacmagoole, 13/2 Sovietica, 7/1 Meet The Legend, 8/1 Earth Man, 14/1 Grave Doubts, Roby De Cimbre, 16/1 Critical Stage, Silverhay, 20/1 Ready Response, Welsh Main, 25/1 Bay Hawk, Nayodabayo, 66/1 Wun Chai.

* This is a 0-120 handiap hurdle
* SOVIETICA and MICKMACMAGOOGLE have recent runs and are in form
* I would prefer a horse like that then the debutant EARTH MAN
* I looked at 199 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with 1 run like MEET THE LEGEND had a 0-17 record so I will take him on
* I dont see GRAVE DOUBTS winning as a 11 year old coming from a selling race
* Much depends on how SOVIETICA gets on as the only Female horse in this race
* She also has to overcome the possibility she may not be able to reproduce her form after a recent run
* I looked at penalty carriers like SOVIETCA that won their first run this year
* Its inconclusive but all that that tried Lost
* MICKMACMAGOOGLE has been very busy and you would expect him to go close
* WIth so many unanswered issues I feel the way to go is down the each way double route
* MICKMACMAGOOGLE in an each way double isnt a bad option
* I think MICKMACMAGOOGLE or SOVIETICA ought to win

SELECTION - None

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