Mathematician 80007-07-2007





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Saturday's Cards have been savaged today with just 2 meetings surviving. Sandown isnt easy. I like the opening race quite a bit. Quite surprised that despite Beverley racing on Heavy ground it is not an impossible card at all. The Draw bias may continue to fool people and its not easy there on this ground but I have found a bit more than I thought I would have done. Going to have a Blank day.

My best bet is SMUGGLERS BAY at 4/1 in the 3.55 handicap at Beverley. I think he has every chance of giving his trainer his 5th win in 7 years in this contest. Without tempting fate I think ive talked a bit of sense in todays message and its turned out a lot better than I would have predicted yesterday afternoon. Like quite a few at Beverley but my best bet has to be SMUGGLERS BAY .

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TODAYS RACING


We have had the Heart ripped out of todays Racing with Abandonments all over the place. We are left with just Sandown which is not easy and Beverely on heavy ground. Current form hasnt been great. My last 3 bets have Lost. Very annoyingly two of these were short prices and the other was a 20/1 chance which came out and won next time out.

Always frustrated and annoyed with myself when losers at short prices go on the account but I did fancy RUB OF THE GREEN yesterday and in a virtual 3 horse race I felt he did have a serious chance. He probably was not good enough yesterday. Didnt think he handled the track well and he may have been the victim of a slowly run race but I wont hide my dissapointment in his defeat. Not all all concerned by 3 losers on the Trot. Its the wettest period since records began and it can change on a sixpence and the important thing is not to be overstaking and having
too many bets when the eye isnt in and the grounds that bad. I Had a few options yesterday. I was never seriously considering Out After Dark as a bet but he was desperately unlucky. Wont do much good to put him in your notebook. He went into everyones after yesterdays run. He must win soon.
HALLAND was the sole winner from my 5 options yesterday. Pleased he won just to prevent a blank day. The Dragon Stakes was not won by a filly. Totally prepared to blame the ground for that. I will have the winner next year and it will be a filly. Pleased I didnt get tempted by fillies on bad ground. The negative for beaten maiden runner Alma Mater who ran unplaced at 1/2 was inspired , imaginative
and an example of what we can do through statistics. However it was always a negative in a race we had to guess in and I guessed wrong with Kwazulu.I suspect the Layers did better in that race than the rest of us. He was hard to make a bet as he handnt been on the surface and you never know if horses like him are even trying. Just a shame the best negative in weeks came in the wrong race for us. In the end a dissapointing day. Lessons must be to keep things safe and low key today as the weather is so bad but with so many abandonments we have little choice anyway. Only looking at a small selection of races today and putting a line through the hideous ones.

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SANDOWN 2.05 - Laurent-Perrier Champagne Sprint Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) 5f6y

13/8 Reverence, 4/1 Sierra Vista, 11/2 Hoh Mike, 8/1 Wi Dud, 10/1 Bond City, The Tatling, 14/1 The Trader,
16/1 Dazed And Amazed, 50/1 Dhaular Dhar, 66/1 Sand Cat.

* This is a 5f Group 3 race
* Sandown has had 21 renewals of this race
* We have a hot favourite in REVERENCE
* He was beaten 2 lengths in this race last year
* He had 9st 3lbs last year - Now he has 9st 11lbs
* He had 5 races last year before running in this - Now he has None
* He carries more weight as he has a Group 1 penalty
* He went from this race last year to win two Group 1 races
* Thats why he is a short price today and the horse to beat
* The question for me is how much will his weight - and absence count against him
* Seasonal debutants are 0-14 in this race. Hardly a positive sign.
* Is Eric Alston really the man to train a horse back after a long absence ?
* Alstons record with horses absent 7 months or more is just 2-118 and none outside handicaps
* Thats a career record - The man has a bad record with seasonal debutants
* REVERENCE isnt a horse thats shown he can win fresh either
* I would personally be worried about his long absence
* I am also worried about his weight.
* Horses that carried penalties in this race struggled. None won with a Group 1 penalty
* Statistically the winner of this race should carry between 8st 12lbs and 9st 3lbs
* 14 of the last 15 winners carried this weight
* These are horses that avoided penalties
* Clearly these penalties cause real problems for horses to overcome
* Several were beaten favourites in this race carrying penalties
* Only Ya Malak carried a penalty in this race since 1991 and he was a Group 1 winner
* So too is REVERENCE but Ya Malak had 5 prep races when he won
* Statistics show the weight is a big problem so is the absence
* So at a short price I am opposing REVERENCE
* His trainer hardly smacks of the type to overcome such obstacles
* There has been 107 Group races for all aged horses at 5f since 1986
* None of the 107 winners carried 9st 11lbs
* None of the 107 winners were aged 9 or more
* This takes out THE TRADER and THE TATLING
* Surely both are vulnerable nowadays in this class
* Dazed And Amazed, Dhaular Dhar, Sand Cat look outclassed.
* I have to oppose BOND CITY as he comes from a handicap
* Since 1992 horses that came from handicaps had a 1-48 record in this race
* In the 107 Group Class handicaps over 5f - exposed handicappers like him did badly
* They won just 2 races in a 2-90 record and both had a very quick run

SHORTLIST

* WI DID is statistically perfect and the drying ground will help
* SIERRA VISTA is a Mare with 9st 6lbs - just above the ideal weight range
* Plenty of Mares have won this race (6) and few have had the chance to carry her weight
* She is very fit and had a hard statistical chance last time out
* SIERRA VISTA will go very close in this race
* HOH MIKE is her biggest danger in my view
* They come from the same 6f race last time - which provided the 1998 winner of this
* They both had big problems last time out statistically up in trip
* SIERRA VISTA beat HOH MIKE but thats irrelevant in my view
* HOH MIKE would want it drying out a bit more but he has a 1-1 record at the track

* I have this between WI DUD - HOH MIKE - SIERRA VISTA

* I am siding with WI DUD as he comes from the best part of the weights
* I also feel he is about to peak unlike Hh Mike

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I am pretty much done with Sandown now

The Handicap at 2.35 looks pretty vile. I will be quite interested in how the Racing Post selection MUTANASEB gets on. This is a Class 2 handicap over a Mile. MUTANASEB is a 3 year old with just 4 previous runs and comes from a 7f race. Out of interest I looked at the 283 identical races that have been run before in this grade at this trip. NONE of these went to such a lightly raced 3 year old stepping up in trip. Not enough failed to make him a negative (0-22) and his trainer is high class but it struck me that MUTANASEB was trying to do something no horse has succeeded in doing yet.

The Eclipse Stakes is Mouth Watering. It has never been a race where my angles managed to penatrate or offer anything worthwhile to shout about. AUTHORISED won the Derby in impressive fashion. Many say the drop in trip is not a good thing. Thats unproven statistically. Surely the biggest negative about AUTHORISED has to be his price. I would love to see GEORGE WASHINGTON win . Will he stay in the conditions ? I dont know. Flawed but has star quality. I am babbling like Claud Duval talking Cliches that you already know. Surely with the betting as it is NOTNOWCATO who was second in last years race is the each way value. He may not have the class of the younger horses but they are not that far ahead and he will like the ground and he cant be a bad each way bet at 7/1. NOTNOWCATO each way is my Rather obvious pick.

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B E V E R L E Y


Beverley 2.15 - 7f Claiming race over 7f 100 yards for 2 year olds

11/10 Alpen Adventure, 3/1 Indecision, 20/1 Friction, 25/1 Pequeno Dinero, 33/1 Arabian Fern, La Belle Joannie, 100/1 Welcome Inn.

Beverley 2.15 - 4 rank outsiders does help in this race
Beverley 2.15 - ALPEN ADVENTURE can be criticised on breeding stats
Beverley 2.15 - His sires juveniles are just 1-45 on this ground and he isnt certain to handle it
Beverley 2.15 - I also felt FRICTION has poor breeding stats -The post disagree with that
Beverley 2.15 - Given the choice I would rather bet INDECISION at 2/1 than the favourite

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Beverley 2.45 - BATTY JOINERY MANUFACTURERS MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (2yo) 5f

9/4 Know No Fear, 5/2 Pay Parade, Soopacal, 5/1 Rich James, 33/1 Lekin Sedona, Penny Arcade, 50/1 Dawn Whisper, Doubtless, Pussycat Bow.

Beverley 2.45 - This is a 5f maiden race
Beverley 2.45 - 4 Rank outsiders do make it easier
Beverley 2.45 - This leaves 3 experienced horses V 2 Unraced ones
Beverley 2.45 - I have problems with all 3 unraced horses
Beverley 2.45 - With KNOW NO FEAR its the ground. He isnt bred for mud
Beverley 2.45 - His sire has a 0-27 record with his runners on soft and heavy
Beverley 2.45 - He may get away with it but he is bred to want faster ground
Beverley 2.45 - With RICH JAMES its his stable and the ground
Beverley 2.45 - He isnt proven on soft and James Bethells record in 5f maidens is 0-53
Beverley 2.45 - PAY PARADE is the other horse with experience
Beverley 2.45 - I dont like the fact she is a female on bad ground and a May foal
Beverley 2.45 -I dont like the fact she is a filly with 1 run and has a 63 day absence
Beverley 2.45 - I looked at 405 maidens like this run on bad ground
Beverley 2.45 - I could only find one filly winning after a 7 week break
Beverley 2.45 - Certainly Tim Easterby hasnt won one of these races with such an absence
Beverley 2.45 - I just feel on heavy ground why bet a filly with such an absence
Beverley 2.45 - This may well go to an unraced horse
Beverley 2.45 - Watch the market with LEKIN SEDONA but he looks unfancied Now
Beverley 2.45 - If he is backed later LEKIN SEDONA could be very interesting
Beverley 2.45 - Perhaps this is best left to SOOPACAL an unraced Bryan Smart colt
Beverley 2.45 - Smart can and does have unraced 2 year old winners in these races
Beverley 2.45 - He looks bred to want this ground and his stables 2 year olds are flying
Beverley 2.45 - You can only guess but I would rather guess SOOPACAL 7/2 than anything else

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I wasnt really interested in the 3.20 Handicap

4/1 Bond Boy, 7/1 Efistorm, 8/1 Bo McGinty, Desert Opal, Namir, Prince Namid, 10/1 Pawan, Wanchai Lad, 12/1 Glasshoughton, Kay Two, 16/1 Danum Dancer, 20/1 Artie, Steel Blue, 25/1 Monashee Brave.

17 renewals of this race
All had 13 runs and ran within 31 days
Horses with under 5 runs each season had a weak 1-61 record
Obvious negatives include Wanchai Lad - Artie - Desert Opal -Monashee Brace
Thats about as far as you can go without artificially forcing angles
It may or may not be significant that high weights in these 17 Beverley races dissapoint
Only 1 of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st 6lbs
In 17 renewals of this race horses with 9st 6lbs or more had a weak 2-58 record
Ideal shortlist based on these trends would be the following
Bond Boy -Bo McGinty - Namir -Pawan - Glasshoughton

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BEVERLEY 3.55 - HALL BUILDING SERVICES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-80)1m100y

3/1 The Grey Berry, 7/2 Jewelled Dagger, 11/2 Smugglers Bay, 7/1 Handsome Falcon, Lemon Silk, 10/1 Laish Ya Hajar, 14/1 Rabbit Fighter, 16/1 Leonard Charles

* 8F Handicap for 3 year olds
* Beverley has 25 renewals but nothing statistically on offer
* The main negative from the stats is a non runner (He´s Mine Too)
* I felt SMUGGLERS BAY was very interesting here
* Wished I could have had a few more negatives against him
* Horses with 1 or 2 runs that season had a 0-31 record in this race
* Not hard to oppose RABBIT FIGHTER with 2 runs and a 79 day break
* THE GREY BERRY has ran just twice. That wouldnt really worry me to be honest
* He looks fine and should go quite close
* LEMON SILK may just be underraced this year
* I thought JEWELLED DAGGER Might struggle on heavy ground
* He has never ran on it before and his sires oddspring are fast ground biased
* I think you can suggest a few of these have questions to answer
* HANDSOME CROSS has to step up from 7f to 8f
* He is from a sire (Kyllachy) that hasnt yet bred a winner beyond 7f
* I do like SMUGGLERS BAY though
* His Trainer Tim Easterby has won this race in 2000 2001 2003 2004 in a 4-9 record
* SMUGGLERS BAY has just hacked up in a 0-64 by 2.5 lengths
* This is a step up in class but he looks progressive
* The 5th that day (Mandalay Prince) has come out and won 4 lengths
* He comes from a Dam whose already produced a Listed class winner from 2 runners
* Being by Celtic Swing you would expect him to relish this ground
* He may well improve again now he has won and he looks progressive to me
* With his trainers record in this race I like him a lot
* SMUGGLETS BAY is my best bet on the card

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BEVERLEY 4:25 - HALL CIVIL ENGINEERING HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 2m35y

11/4 Squiffy, 4/1 Princess Kiotto, 9/2 Rocknest Island, 5/1 Crimson Monarch, 8/1 Patavium, 9/1 Figaro´s Quest, 11/1 Michaels Dream, 12/1 Gallileo Figaro.

* 2 Mile handicap for horses rated 0-68
* Dont like my trends for 2 mile races but a few observations
* GALLILEO FIGARO as a filly with 10st wouldnt appeal
* I have problems with ROCKNEST ISLAND on bad ground being by Bahare
* I felt FIGAROS QUEST was vulnerable with 1 run this season
* He is also unproven on the ground
* The Mare PRINCESS KIOTTI has ran just once in 2 years and not for 58 days
* She is also described as not well handicapped
* I was quite interested in CRIMSON MONARCH but will he stay ?
* I opposedm him in May over 14f for this reason
* His sire Red Ranson has a 0-32 record at distances of 13f or more
* He has a couple of 14f winners abroad but it doesnt augur well for this horse
* There must be a strong doubt he wont stay 16f on heavy ground
* PATAVIAM isnt sure to stay either
* His sire (Titus Livius) hasnt Sired a winner yet over 2 miles
* This leaves SQUIFFY 3/1 and MICHAELS DREAM 12/1
* Dont see why MICHAELS DREAM Cant win much as SQUIFFY is easier to predict
* I made SQUIFFY one of my best bets when he won the other day
* He landed a big priced gamble - He comes high on my list in this race as well

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