No Account Bet

I just do not like anything much today. Brighton is teeming down with Rain. Horrible Unimaginative card. Yarmouth much the same. Neither tracks seem to offer anything interesting. Some thoughts at Beverley and Southwell tonight later in the message. I think I got carried away yesterday with over excitement about having a good message today. I feel its a dangerous and poor quality day. I thought about a call back and update message tonight but I think its best if we draw a line under a bad days racing and I can start tomorrows message.

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TODAY'S RACING


YARMOUTH 2.10 - 7/4 Rubirosa, 9/4 Spitfire, 7/2 Jebel Tara, 8/1 Mr Fantozzi, Wooden King, 33/1 Insomnitas,

My Gut feeling - And my interpretation of 127 similar races is that Something may well beat favourite Rubirosa. I have looked at 127 similar 6f Novice races and looked at all horses with 1 win from just 1 run and looked at runners that carried 9st 5lbs and all 7 that tried Lost. I think these trends are very weak and vulnerable but his maiden form has taken a knock and he gives weight to all 5 opponents and I couldn’t be excited about him at 7/4

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YARMOUTH 2.45 - 4/5 Mama Leo, 7/2 Pearo, 6/1 Bettys Touch, 10/1 Fahed, Redbackcappuchino,

I would be worried about FAHED as the youngest horse in the race and a horse younger than any of the past 16 winners of this race. I would also be concerned about the 32 day absence the favourite MAMA LEO has as well. None of the 16 Yarmouth selling winners defied that absence. The race really is about just how much advantage - if any - the likes of BETTYS TOUCH - PEARO - REDBACKCAPPUCHINO have with a recent run. I can make a case for all 4 of the runners in this race that have experience and I don't see how they can be split with confidence. I just think the race depends on how fit Mama Leo can be and how that recent run helps or hinders the others.

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YARMOUTH 3.20 - EXPRESS CAFES MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m3y

Evs We´ll Come, 3/1 Gongidas, 4/1 Fondled, 8/1 Sign Of The Cross, 14/1 Alpes Maritimes, 16/1 Norman The Great, 50/1 Anatolian Prince, Nothingtodeclaire, 66/1 Magdalene, 100/1 Cosmic Apollo, Formidable Guest, Littlemissdynamite, Reigning Monarch, Tavares, 200/1 Adore Moi.

Thought this was interesting and I just give the vote to WELL COME who has strong handicap form and takes on a debutant in GONGIDAS from Godolphins stable. There have been 138 all aged Maidens in May and June at this trip. Its worrying that the record of "Unraced " horses like GONGIDAS is just 5 winners from 281 runners. Thats a very poor strike rate. Although one of the 5 winners was a Godolphin horse- and you have to respect them greatly I think I have to prefer WE'LL COME who has after all just come from a 0-101 handicap where he was unlucky not to win. That 0-101 form must surely "Trump" an unraced horse and thats why WE'LL COME is the selection. I respect FONDLED from James Fanshawe and her powerful owners. I have to take the view that coming 4th in a Nottingham maiden is some way behind the 0-101 handicap the favourite should have won. I think the favourite will win. I bear in mind that the decent handicap that he should have won did come when "Bottomweight" and that rated 84 may not be good enough and that he wouldn’t want heavy rain but overall he has by far the strongest profile and I would give him the verdict over an unraced horse and horses that were beaten in Maidens.

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YARMOUTH 3.55 - 3/1 Networker, 5/1 Al Rayanah, 6/1 Postmaster, 8/1 Convallaria, Desert Island Miss, The Bonus King, 16/1 Bowl Of Cherries, Emily´s Place, Major League, 20/1 Grand Rebecca, Wodhill Schnaps, 33/1 Dream Master, Haneen, Lough Neagh.

Of the fancied runners I would look to be against both Desert Island Miss and Convallaria. I don't fancy either. This is because they have ran just 3 and 4 times before and come from Maiden races. There have been 300 similar low grade handicaps run at this time of year. Its interesting that from 300 races Only 2 of the 300 winners ran just 3 times before like CONVALLARIA. If you look at horses in these 300 races that had a) Under 4 runs and b) came from a maiden then just 1 winner emerged from 110 that tried. No Filly with 3 runs won any of the 300 races like her. DESERT ISLAND MISS failes her own trends as well. No horse as inexperienced as her won one of these races on their seasonal debuts. I am against this pair and Grand Rebecca who fails similar trends. I don't fancy Lough Neagh. My Gut feeling is that I should take out the fillies with 1 race this season. They certainly don't score well and they underperform. This includes EMILYS PLACE - AL RAYANAH and HANEEN. I think for the winner you are looking for something well raced and Horses like NETWORKER and POSTMASTER offer that. This pair have to have the strongest profiles alongside possible outsiders like Major League.

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YARMOUTH 5.05 - 7/2 Bronze Star, Broughtons Revival, 5/1 Amwell Brave, Shaika, 8/1 Pochard, Turner´s Touch, 12/1 Peas ´n Beans, 20/1 English Archer, 25/1 Coffin Dodger.

Of the market leaders I would rather bet BRONZE STAR than Broughtons Revival but I wonder whether this is TURNERS TOUCH's day. He has been hammered in the market. Clearly well handicapped. His chance depends on translating sand form to grass. AMWELL BRAVE's respected but I don't take his last run literally. That Makes him look a certainty for this but that is missleading but AMWELL BRAVE's . I think POCHARD and SHAIKA may need another run to get them spot on. I think I would have to shortlist both BRONZE STAR (who I felt had an impossible task last time) and TURNERS TOUCH. Stable power and potential improvement make me just prefer BRONZE STAR. My negatives would be Broughtons Revival - Shaika - Pochard and my shortlist only Bronze Star and Turners Touch.

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YARMOUTH 5.35 - 7/4 Gigs Magic, 6/1 Elopement, Kingscape, Magic Amigo, 10/1 Danzare, Debord, 12/1 Art Investor, 16/1 Gala Jackpot, Grand Court, 33/1 Always A Story.

I respect Gigs Magic but at the prices I would much rather bet KINGSCAPE and give him the benefit of the doubt down in class.

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BEVERLEY 6.20 - 13/8 Dee Cee Elle, 4/1 Bachnagairn, 11/2 Chip N Pin, Sonara, Traditionalist, 33/1 Galingale.

Without boring you - this race is very complicated on so many levels. Force me to pick and it is TRADITIONALIST. Mainly down to the stableform - the record of Butler in long distance 3 year old handicaps - especially when lightly raced and when from Wolverhampton maidens - The Money has come for him - Nice pedigree - Well entered up. All sorts of reasons to fancy him superficially in a right race.

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BEVERLEY 7.20 - 7:20 HILARY NEEDLER TROPHY (FILLIES) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

11/4 Coachhouse Lady, 3/1 Cristal Clear, 6/1 Charlotti Carlotti, 8/1 Sudden Impact, 10/1 Tan Bonita, 12/1 Rose Siog, 16/1 Hucking Harmony, Loch Jipp, Primo Heights, 20/1 Feeling Proud, 25/1 Deal Flipper, Eastern Romance, 50/1 Zahwah.

* Hilary Needler Listed race for 2 year old Fillies
* A Raw statistical purge suggests the winner will be one of 3 horses
* These are COACHHOUSE LADY - TAN BONITA - ROSE SIOG
* Tim Easterby who trains CRISTAL CLEAR has won this 4 times since 1998
* None of his 4 winners were beaten on their last starts and None had ran in Listed Class before
* CRISTAL CLEAR has ran in Listed class before. That hasn’t been a good sign
* No previous winners had been overfaced with Listed class before and they were all unexposed in pattern class
* All 7 horses to come from Listed Class lost as did all 32 runners that had ran in Class 3 or higher
* You tend to want a horse "about to deliver" her best not one trained hard to win in Listed class before
* This is also a problem for LOCH JIPP - PRIMO HEIGHTS - FEELING PROUD
* LOCH JIPP was beaten 4 lengths last time. Only 1 past winner was beaten further before winning this
* PRIMO HEIGHTS comes from Chester. No past winner did that
* FEELING PROUD is the youngest horse in the race and younger than any past winner bar one
* EASTERN ROMANCE and HUCKING HARMONY have been absent over a Month
* Only 1 of the past 20 winners managed that and both have run without winning which isn’t a good sign
* 17 of the 18 past winners that had ran before won last time out
* Horses that had ran before without recording a win had a 0-37 record in this race
* Also failing that trend is DEAL FLIPPER - EASTERN ROMANCE -AWAY
* SUDDEN IMPACT and CHARLOTTI CARLOTTI also come here as maidens which hasn’t been the norm
* COACHOUSE LADY - TAN BONITA - ROSE SIOG look strong statistically

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BEVERLEY 8.20 - WEATHERBYS BLOODSTOCK INSURANCE HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m1f207y

9/4 Fortunate Isle, 7/2 Dash To The Front, 9/2 Mount Usher, 6/1 Along The Nile, 7/1 Blacktoft, 10/1 Sir Arthur, 14/1 Sunisa, 20/1 Magic Sting, 33/1 Thumpers Dream.

I think the interesting 3 horses are MOUNT USHER - FORTUNATE ISLE - SIR ARTHUR. There are some negatives in this race based on a massive sample size of 638 handicaps like this at 9f and 10f at this time of year. In these 638 races if you look at Fillies like DASH TO THE FRONT that arehaving their seasonal debuts only 8 managed to win from 229 that tried. That 8-229 record is poor and when you consider that None of these came up in trip from an 8f race as she does I feel she is worth overlooking. I don't want ALONG THE NILE. I don't want a horse like him thats been absent over 5 weeks when his trainer says he is a "big stuffy horse who takes some getting ready" and he also states he is not that well handicapped. I have to be against MAGIC STING as no exposed horses managed to come from a claimer to win this race. I don't want SUNISA as in 638 races there was no winners that were Female - Aged 6 or more that had an absence of over a month off the track. Much depends on just how much SIR ARTHUR's last run showed a return to form. He is well handicapped but last time out was his first form in ages. If he wasn't flattered then he is a big player. Now the ground has dried up I feel MOUNT USHER has a strong chance on the book and his 4 day absence could be a nice advantage. FORTUNATE ISLE has a solid chance as well. At the prices I would tend to just prefer MOUNT USHER each way at about 6/1.

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SOUTHWELL 8.35 - JOURNEY SOUTH PLAY AFTER RACING HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-65) 7f

9/2 Modern Verse, 6/1 Cleveland, Doctor´s Cave, 7/1 Penel, Scuba, Shaftesbury Avenue, Wainwright, 10/1 Lii Najma, 14/1 Alsadaa, Top Dirham, 33/1 Lytham, 50/1 Sea Frolic.

All I can say here is that I would be opposing MODERN VERSE and SHAFTESBURY AVENUE. There have been 340 all aged handicaps in May and June at this 7f trip. Only 5 of the 340 winners had under 5 career starts as this pair have got. I just see them as vulnerable to experienced horses. The race looks a bit of a Mess to sort out but at the prices I think its worth opposing this pair and trying to find an alternative.

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