Wednesday October 31st

Today's Best Bet

Lingfield 4.00


ALWAYS BEST 15/8

Today's Best Bet is ALWAYS BEST and unlike many recent offerings he is a very confident selection. I think I have more than made the case for him. He is easily the Best Bet I have seen for a few weeks. He is Account Bet Strength but I feel I have no option but to Downgrade him to a Best Bet of the day. Its not really the fact He runs at Lingfield. I have always said I would only bet at Lingfield when I was very confident the horse should win and I have that confidence today. Its His price that
really bothers me. He is 5/1 in the Racing Post yet just 2/1 with just one Bookmaker(Betfred) and 15/8 (Ladbrokes -Tote) with some other firms. There is a right price and a wrong price for every horse. I cant ignore the fact his odds are far shorter than expected. At 5/1 and even at 7/2 He would have been an account bet for sure. At no
better than 2/1 I have to consider what we are getting for a shorter price and have to downgrade him as a Best Bet of the day. By far todays Best Bet even at his price.

Dont overstake. Normal Best Bet Stakes. Know I am confident but you want bigger bets on bigger prices and smaller stakes on lower prices and we shouldnt be having more on a horse just because the price is lower. No Flat Racing on Grass tomorrow. That will mean a shorter message.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G

Tell you where I am at the Moment as some of you will be getting a bit frustrated that we haven't had many strong bets and October was pretty much a Blank month. This is basically where I am coming from. We've Had a great season with excellent results. Thats taken a little bit of toll. Bit of fatigue. Bit of mental Tiredness and as we are in the Menopause of the season as we take the change from Flat to Jumps - I am just taking it steady and not doing damage when the Racing's Tough. Went through some turbulence 2 weeks ago but we quickly recovered and actually showed a decent profit over the time I was out of form which was pleasant. Now the Ships been steadied the Waters have not as its pretty tough to be imaginative given the racing on offer and I just want to try and get to a stage where the right race or races come along and I have done the right preparation. We're pretty much bound to snap out of this quiet spell soon. At the moment the E Mails are pretty much holding their own. There may not be many classics coming out but there are no horror ones and I just have to wait for the right time. Yesterdays Message was typical of recent ones. Good start. Good finish. Weak in the Middle. Bit like going out to bat in a one day international. Scoring 20 knowing that you've done enough not to lose your place in the side and others have done far worse - but also knowing you averages
have slipped and you need a good score soon.

We have a Juggernaut coming people. The National Hunt and Lingfield and the Sand will be far different from the Flat. Whilst we can bide our time on the flat and cherry pick at Leisure and Make significant progress this is a different code. It requires me to be at my best . There is no place to hide in the winter. I need to be sharper than Joan Rivers Tongue. Need to be at my best and Most confident. During this Menopausal time I am planing my jumps strategy. Building up my confidence. I don't want to go into War this winter on the back of a silly losing run that should have been avoided by wasting bets on the lottery of the last few weeks of the Flat. Its a big Juggernaut and we need to be ready and the fact we won 25pts this Flat season wont make a blind bit of difference when it Starts and I want to be ready. Very soon I will be telling you all to Saddle Up and Load the Guns.


BRIEF HUNTINGDON THOUGHTS


Need to keep this Brief as there isn't too much I can say at Today's Meeting. After a Quick run down at Huntington we shall concentrate on Nottingham.


Huntingdon 1.40 - Juvenile Hurdle with little to go on
Huntingdon 1.40 - PEREDUR is from a stable you would expect to have unraced winners
Huntingdon 1.40 - JEU DE ROSEAU is trained by B Curley - He has never had a juvenile hurdle winner (0-11)
Huntingdon 1.40 - I think there is a doubt that MIX N MATCH will stay
Huntingdon 1.40 - MIX N MATCH may not have got home at Uttoxeter and his half brother was useless
Huntingdon 1.40 - MOTARJM is from a stable that are 0-25 at this track and who haven't had a 3yo winner Huntingdon 1.40 - I would offer PEREDUR and SAM LORD as the most sensible profiles

Huntingdon 2.10 - Handicap Chase over an extended 2m 4f and troublesome
Huntingdon 2.10 - I don't really want short odds about HIGHLAND CHIEF but equally don't want to oppose him
Huntingdon 2.10 - Cant see where the dangers may or may not like
Huntingdon 2.10 - Wouldn’t rule out JOHN DIAMOND - His stable score very well in races like this
Huntingdon 2.10 - Hen Knight has a 5-11 record in races with horses lightly raced and racing after a break
Huntingdon 2.10 - The favourites pretty hard to oppose in my view but I cant bet him at short prices

Huntingdon 2.40 - MEXICAN BOB is favourite for this Novice Hurdle at 10/11
Huntingdon 2.40 - I thought he was far from unbeatable having won a maiden hurdle
Huntingdon 2.40 - Some of these may be better types and I wouldnt want to bet him at odds on
Huntingdon 2.40 - SHORE THING was a better flat horse and comes from a stable with a 3-7 record here in 2m Nov Hdles
Huntingdon 2.40 - LETALUS could go close but there is a chance he is being handicapped
Huntingdon 2.40 - SWORDSMAN is from another stable that are dangerous
Huntingdon 2.40 - SWORDSMAN has received praise in reports -his trainer marked him down as his "One to follow"
Huntingdon 2.40 - I will take a guess and a stab on SWORDSMAN at 6/1 to beat the odds on favourite

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NOTTINGHAM 12:50 - TURFTV A MATTER OF COURSE SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo) 1m54y

4/1 Lord Deevert, 9/2 Heavenly Saint, 6/1 Alfredtheordinary, 7/1 Pay Pay Pay, 8/1 Giggling Monkey, Ten On Line, 10/1 Magnol, Ochenvay, 12/1 Racey Rachel, 16/1 Pembo, 33/1 Korcula, 50/1 Dome Blonde, Miss Willoughby.

* This is a selling race over a Mile for 2 year olds
* I did not like LORD DEEVERT much but it isn't really for statistical reasons
* Didn’t thing he was the most likely stayer anyway and his Sire is just 1-42 with 2 year olds at 8f trips or longer
* Wasn't keen he was ridden by a 7lbs claimer (all 45 of those lost in this race)
* LORD DEEVERT also has to step up from 6f to 8f - That has been done - But it isn't easy
* However he is similar to the sort that have done it
* I give him a chance if he copes with the trip but thats too much of an unknown and he may not stay anyway
* I don't like juveniles with absences in these races
* Fillies absent a month or more have a 0-78 record
* RACEY RACHEL -GIGGLING MONKEY fail that as does Miss Willoughby
* ALFREDTHEORDINARY has a 51 day break and that puts me off a litt;e
* I felt KORCULA - PEMBO will fail for stamina
* Not keen on MAGNOL who is a filly coming from a claimer and all 25 of those lost
* Cant see why I should select PAY PAY PAY and I am not convinced he stays
* I thought HEAVENLY SAINT and OCHENVAY had pretty solid profiles
* HEAVENLY SAINT (Selection) and OCHENVAY (Saver) would be my idea of the best option

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LINGFIELD 1:00 - LINGFIELD PARK FOR EXHIBITIONS NURSERY (CLASS 5) (2yo,0-70) 7f

9/2 Polar Annie, 5/1 It´s My Day, 11/2 Maddy, 8/1 Especially, 10/1 Addikt, Bazguy, Llab Nala, Private Code, 12/1 Maybe I Wont, 14/1 Points Of View, 16/1 Jelly Mo, 20/1 Victory Shout, 33/1 Never Sold Out.

* This is a 7f Nursery
* Lingfield have had 34 of these 7f Nurseries between August and December
* I felt that was possibly a better idea that look at similar turf races at this time of year
* You can never take trends at Lingfield completely at face value as the pace can be slow
* However in 34 Nurseries at this complex track some stats do stand out to me
* Fillies that have not raced within a Month had a 0-37 record in the 34 Nurseries
* POLAR ANNIE - PRIVATE CODE both fail that
* Fillies with just 3 runs are 0-18 and PRIVATE CODE and ESPECIALLY fail that
* Horses absent over a Month that had under 5 career starts had a 1-50 record
* POLAR ANNIE - ITS MY DAY - PRIVATE CODE - VICTORY SHOUT all fail that
* MADDY is a filly coming from a 6f race and alll 55 Fillies that tried that Lost
* Horses that had 3 previous wins that didnt win last time out were 0-59
* POINTS OF VIEW - ADDICT - ESPECIALLY - PRIVATE CODE - VICTORY SHOUT all fail that
* Applying these trends takes out most fancied runners and leaves the shortlist a little exposed
* I will follow the trends where they lead me in this race and suggest the following shortlist
* BAZGUY 14/1 - MAYBE I WONT 12/1

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NOTTINGHAM 1:20 - OATH MAIDEN STAKES (COLTS & GELDINGS) (DIV I) (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m54y

11/8 Doctor Fremantle, 11/4 Etruscan, 6/1 Manalito, 7/1 Stow, 16/1 Tajweed, 20/1 Leitmotif, 25/1 St Jean Cap Ferrat, Wells Lyrical, 33/1 Promised Gold, Rockjumper, 100/1 Casual Garcia.

* Division 1 of the Oath Maiden Stakes - a 2 year old race over a Mile
* Not strong angles in this race
* I didnt feel MANALITO or STOW had done enough to fancy against the 2 market leaders
* Marginally I preferred DOCTOR FREMANTLE mainly for Stoute's strong record in these races
* Stoutes record with 2 year olds at a 8f is best when his runners have ran twice (5-10 at this time of year)
* Wouldn’t want to take DOCTOR FREMANTLE at odds on but wouldnt want to oppose him

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LINGFIELD 1:30 - ARENALEISUREPLC.COM MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) 1m2f

11/4 All The Aces, 7/2 Judgethemoment, 4/1 Howdigo, 6/1 Higgy´s Boy, 7/1 Havanavich, 12/1 Rutba, Sendefaa, 14/1 Crimsonwing, 66/1 Bosamcliff, Bruki, 100/1 Jermajesty, Lord´s Bidding, Millennium Storm.

* This is a very race 10f race for juveniles
* There has only been 48 of these races run anywhere in the last 20 years
* Didn’t like the look of HOWDIGO who looks exposed coming from handicaps
* No horses as exposed as HOWDIGO or HIGGYS BOY won any of the 48 races coming from handicaps
* HIGGYS BOY looks a non stayer unless the pace is slow - as it probably will be
* None of the 48 similar races went to an unraced filly like RUTBA
* In the end I felt ALL THE ACES was the clear cut option
* Only JUDGETHEMOMENT would worry me - I fancy nothing else
* ALL THE ACES trained by Michael Jarvis is the selection
* Just see him stronger and having a bit more scope and class than these
* M Jarvis has a 3-4 record when running juveniles over this marathon distance

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NOTTINGHAM 1:50 - OATH MAIDEN STAKES (COLTS & GELDINGS) (DIV II) (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m54y

7/2 Turn Left, 4/1 Fearless Warrior, Just Rob, 7/1 Moyenne Corniche, 10/1 Asian Classic, Smetana, 12/1 Eton Fable, 16/1 Elliwan, Hawk Flight, Traitor´s Gate, 66/1 No Nukes.

This is division 2 of the Oath Maiden Stakes and its interesting. I will oppose FEARLESS WARRIOR. His dam (Princess Genista) is possibly the most influential Dam I have ever seen and a wonderful Mare who produces very similar types. Princess Genista's family all radically improved in the second half of their 3 year old campaign and when stepped up to 2 miles. The family are late developers and really quite predictable. Her brothers and sisters all excelled over 2 mile trips. FEARLESS WARRIOR is related to fabulous stayers like Give Notice , Heir To Be, Race The Ace, Sovenista and Stoop to Conquer who all improved markedly late in their 3 year old campaigns. The Dams record with her classy offspring have lost all 24 times that they raced at 12f or less yet they have racked up 15 wins at longer distances. She hasn’t yet bred a 2 year old winner. I just feel is a horse you need to bet next year when John Dunlop steps him up to marathon trips. The Problem is then what alternatives can you realistically bet. I cant go with Roger Charltons ASIAN CLASSIC as Charlton very rarely wins with unraced 2 year olds at a Mile. He hasn’t won with one since 1995 and he has never done it at this time of year. Its the same with SMETANA who is trained by H Morrison. I don't feel he is a trainer to bet an unraced 2 year old at a Mile. He is 0-51 with all unraced 2 year olds at 7f or more. TRAITORS GATE isn't for me up from a 6f race. There has been 49 maidens at Nottingham at this time of year at a Mile and None were won by horses up from 6f trips (0-48). Geoff Wragg who trains the unraced MOYENNE CORNICHE has never trained an unraced 2 year old winner at this trip before. His record at this time of year is also weak. So to is the trainer of HAWK FLIGHT who is another who has a poor record with unraced 2 year olds at a Mile. I would be surprised if a 65 rated horse like ETON FABLE was good enough from a small stable . I hate the fact that ELLIWAN was beaten over 10 lengths on his debut and races just 7 days later. There has been 424 maidens at this time of year over a Mile and Horses like ELLIWAN that return so quickly after being so well beaten on their debuts were 0-54. This leaves just 2 horses that I felt had the best profiles . These are TURN LEFT - JUST ROB

* TURN LEFT probably has the best trainer stats but I am slightly put off by his trainer saying he is "weak"
* JUST ROB is the other shortlisted horse but I would have preferred better stable records with his yard
* This pair are shortlisted but hard to split them and it may be that an unraced winner takes this despite poor trainer stats
* I would consider therefore a place bet at evens or better on the biggest price of TURN LEFT and JUST ROB

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LINGFIELD 2:00 - LINGFIELD PARK FOR CONFERENCES CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) 6f

15/8 Redsensor, 7/2 Ramblin Bob, 6/1 I Don't Do Walkin, 9/1 Countrywide Comet, 12/1 Kintyre Lass, 14/1 Ely Une, 20/1 Enchanted Lady, Mama Leo, 50/1 Mairead´s Boy, 66/1 Vixens Daughter.

* This is a claiming race over 6 furlongs
* These races are very rare at this time of year
* Lingfield has had just 22 of these races and None in the last 7 years !
* That illustrates how dangerous following stats from these races can be
* The 22 races do show a serious advantage to Male horses much as thats a long time ago
* Fillies in these races that had under 9 runs had a 1-91 record
* I DON'T DO WALKIN - KINTYRE LASS - ELY UNE all fail that
* VIXENS DAUGHTER - MAMA LEO and ENCHANTED LADY all fail that
* Fillies coming from 5f races hardly impressed with a 1-38 record
* ELY UNE - ENCHANTED LADY - MAMA LEO - VIXENS DAUGHTER Fail that
* Fillies absent a Month or more had a 0-48 record in these 22 races
* KINTYRE LASS -ENCHANTED LADY - MAMA LEO - VIXENS DAUGHTER Fail that
* These stats are a long way from Recent and I would treat them with a little scepticism
* I have no problems with REDSENSOR - RAMBLIN BOB - COUNTRYWIDE COMET
* The issue in this race is surely about REDSENSOR who has the best form on offer
* REDSENSOR may be regressive after 2 disappointing runs hence the drop in class and headgear
* This is why REDSENSOR is weak in the market around 5/2
* For me thats too big a price now for a horse that has by far the best form.
* There is half a chance he didnt stay 7f last time - His sire hasn’t yet shown much stamina with his juveniles
* At the current prices I felt REDSENSOR had got to the point where he is the value
* Wouldn’t appeal as an account bet type with unknown issues like why he has ran poorly twice
* That said I still feel REDSENSOR is the sensible selection.
* After all his last Racing Post rating beat every other horses last rating

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NOTTINGHAM 2:20 - STUART JACKSON "LIFETIME IN RACING" HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 5f13y

5/1 Rainbow Bay, 7/1 Blessed Place, Brandywell Boy, El Potro, 8/1 Niteowl Lad, 12/1 Dancing Mystery, Joyeaux, Silver Prelude, 14/1 Isobel Rose, Make My Dream, 16/1 Jadan, Never Without Me, 20/1 Azygous, 33/1 Double Carpet, Lake Chini, Registrar

* This is a 5f handicap and I didnt see much I liked or disliked in the race
* The biggest issue surely has to be whether high drawn horses will dominate again
* I Had very few obvious negatives to narrow this down but these were some
* DANCING MYSTERY shouldn’t be winning this as a 13 year old
* BLESSED PLACE didnt appeal as his jockey's never ridden a winner before
* ISOBEL ROSE is a 3 year old filly thats too underraced
* NEVER WITHOUT ME doesnt appeal as an older horse with an absence
* I have problems with the Draw for several low drawn horses that include the following
* AZYGOUS - MAKE MY DREAM - NITEOWL LAD - REGISTRAR - LAKE CHINI - SILVER PRELUDE -JADAN
* My shortlist - based admittedly on uncertain draw bias assumptions are these 3
* BRANDYWELL BOY - RAINBOW BAY - JOYEAUX

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NOTTINGHAM 2.50 - 13/8 Lindelaan, 11/4 Incomparable, 7/1 Filligree, 10/1 Heron, 12/1 Caprio, Gain Share, 16/1 Chartist, 20/1 Curio, Quaroma, 33/1 Carmine Rock, Midnight Oasis, Noche De Reyes, 100/1 Eastbourne, Rocketry.

* The selection is a small win bet on CHARTIST 16/1 for those daft enough to get involved
* I am at the stage in my life where I am almost on the verge of giving up saying the words "Michael Pescod"
* Regular readers will know the stress this man has put me under with his once raced maidens
* Last chance Saloon Michael. CHARTIST is your latest effort
* I write this only as I don't want to miss a 16/1 winner
* I write this only as a last ditch attempt to show all previous attempts to catch this owner at the right time wasnt madness

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LINGFIELD 3:00 - LINGFIELD PARK FOR WEDDINGS NURSERY (CLASS 4) (2yo,0-85) 6f

3/1 Blue Jack, Monaazalah, 9/2 The Game, 13/2 Castles In The Air, 7/1 Choisky, 8/1 Fabuleux Cherie, 14/1 Cocabana.

* This is a 6f Nursery and I don't want to get held up here
* I am uncomfortable with MONAAZALAH being absent 88 days
* I am uncomfortable with BLUE JACK having ran just once
* There has been 181 Nursery races at 6f between October and November
* There were 13 horses that ran in these 181 races with just 1 career race
* All 13 won last time as BLUE JACK does and all 13 lost
* This included 5 beaten favourites
* Unlike many he also has to step up from 5f and I couldnt bet him at all
* I could just about live with every other profile in the race
* I would choose an alternative to BLUE JACK and MONAAZALAH

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NOTTINGHAM 3:20 - ROBIN HOOD HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-85) 1m54y

3/1 Central Force, Red Somerset, 7/2 Boundless Prospect, 5/1 Bustan, 6/1 Apex, 20/1 Knapton Hill, Namid Reprobate, 33/1 Street Warrior.

* This is a Mile handicap or horses rated 0-84
* There has been 179 similar races run at this time of year
* I think I would have to oppose CENTRAL FORCE a 3 year old filly absent 62 days
* In 179 races Fillies aged 3 with under 9 runs had a 0-66 record
* Fillies that were absent 7 weeks or more had a weak 1-117 record and all 65 aged 3 lost
* KNAPTON HILL also fails that
* STREET WARRIOR is pretty hard to fancy
* BUSTAN is respected but none of the 179 winners ran in Group 1 or Group 2 class before as he's done
* No reason why BOUNDLESS PROSPECT cant win but I feel "last time out" was his day
* This is a much harder race and he couldnt help win at the weights last time
* NAMID REPROBATE would be an "Unsafe" horse but couldnt be ruled out
* I prefer RED SOMERSET and APEX in this race
* APEX may be a better option if the ground is as fast as advertised
* If this were soft I would be with RED SOMERSET but APEX may have this on fast ground


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LINGFIELD 4:00 - PLAY GOLF @ LINGFIELD PARK HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-58) 1m2f

7/2 Everyman, 5/1 Always Best, 6/1 Emily´s Rainbow, 13/2 Christalini, Formidable Guest, 7/1 Woodins Way, 8/1 Bold Saxon, 12/1 My Monna, 16/1 Lordswood,

* This is a 10f handicap for year olds and these races are pretty rare at this time of year
* Lingfield has had 14 of these races and there were only another 4 races at all other Tracks
* Horses like FORMIDABLE GUEST and EMILYS RAINBOW that had just 3 runs were 0-17
* Horses with under 5 runs that season had a weak 1-58 record
* Both FORMIDABLE GUEST and EMILYS RAINBOW also fail that
* None of the winners came from a 6f race as WODDINS WAY does and surely 6f to 10f beats him
* CHRISTALINI and BOLD SAXON at 16/1 and 16/1 are statisticaly perfect and either might shock
* Don't rule either of these horses out
* ALWAYS BEST stands out to me as a horse that ought to win this
* I think ALWAYS BEST is thrown in and looks a handicap snip
* Hugely dissapointing that his chance has been well seen and he is just 2/1 but I cant do anything about that
* This is a 3 year old trained by Mark Johnston whose lost his last 23 races
* Why has Johnston not yet sold a 46 rated horse thats lost his last 13 races ?
* I think the reason this horse has failed in his last 13 races is mainly down to the Trip
* He started this Flat season from a Mark off 66 and he won First time out at Catterick in April
* He won off a 20lbs higher Mark back in April at 12 furlongs and Therein may like the problem
* I think that Fooled connections into thinking he was a middle distance horse but I don't think he stays 12f
* The 12f race he won at Catterick was only a 3 runner race - and it was actually only an extended 11f race
* It was a sharp track - He beat just 2 poor opponents that have lost all their subsequent races since
* That race neither tested his stamina or his class and I feel that win misled connections into seeing a stayer
* Lets Assume that he does not stay 12 furlongs properly
* Watch his last race at Brighton over an extended 11f
* He came there on the bridle and looked like hacking up but he just didnt look like he stayed on video
* I think there is more evidence that ALWAYS BEST isn't a stayer
* His sire Best of the Bests has a 1-40 record with all his runners at 10f and more
* That sold winner was the 3 runner race ALWAYS BEST won at an extended 11f at Catterick in April
* That hardly suggests that he is a sire laden with stamina
* I remember Best of the Bests - He was 4th in Sinndar's Derby
* That was the last time I went to the Derby and I backed him at 10/1 and he clearly didnt stay in 4th place
* He was a horse that didnt get home over 12f and spent the rest of his career at shorter trips
* Admittedly there is some stamina on the Dams side but not that much and I don't think he stays 12f
* His last 13 races were almost all at 12f and 14f and if he doesnt have the stamina for that its wiped out his season
* Has the penny dropped and has Mark Johnston come to the view that this horse wants 10f and no more
* His last run at Brighton strongly suggests that to me
* Whilst he has been running out of his stamina reach he has dropped from a rating of 68 to 46
* He is 22lbs lower than he was in April and now I believe over his optimum trip
* That makes ALWAYS BEST absolutely thrown in here and he is easily the best bet today
* In fact I would say he is the best bet I have seen for a couple of weeks
* Its just a shame that many others seem to agree and he is now far shorter than he was expected to be

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