No Advised Bet

Poor Selection of Races at Fontwell and Musselburgh. Only the 4pm really looked workable for me and I have previewed that and just added a few extra thoughts. From this week onwards I intend to step up on the All Weather a bit as the Jumps has not offered me much lately and its been a testing time and I understand frustrations with my form and lack of bets. It will swing around when least expected as always. Today I may play a few small bets in the 4.00 race at Musselburgh but this isnt a day to get heavily involved.

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Talking Points

* Cheltenham Trials

Before Todays Analysis a quick look at Punchestown in Ireland. Its on At The Races and Involves some strong Cheltenham Festival prospects that may be worth watching. The Favourite for the Supreme Novice Hurdle runs in the 1.35pm. DA VALIRA is 13/2 to win at Cheltenham and his main rival today is Perce Rock who is 14/1 for the same Cheltenham race. Both these horses will be looking to win today if they have true pretentions to win at Cheltenham. In the 2.35 there is a Grade 2 Chase involving NEWMILL and NICKNAME who are 6/1 and 12/1 for the Champion Chase. Whoever wins this will be the leading Irish Challenger for the Champion Chase this year. In the Cross Country Chase at 3.45 JP Mc Manus runs HEADS ON THE GROUND and he looks set to be one of the owners big Cheltenham hopes in the Cross Country race so he may be worth watching. None of these are "Tips" just setting the scene for the Festival. The Agfa Hurdle trial for the Champion Hurdle won by DETRIOT CITY yesterday created Mixed Opinion about his prospects of winning the Champion Hurdle in March. I thought it was a reasonably impressive run. After the race I asked myself which of the market leaders I would be prepared to bet ahead of DETROIT CITY. My own view is that I would not bet Brave Inca ahead of him. I would not bet Hardy Eustace ahead of him and Straw Bear wouldnt be one I would bet to reverse the form. I Cant bet Harchibald at this stage and can you really see him having the guts to go past Detroit City. The only runner that I would contemplate opposing Detroit City with at this stage would be MACS JOY. It is still early for final conclusions but MACS JOY and DETRIOT CITY are the 2 in Pole Position for the race in my view.

* Saturday's Summary

The 4 Mile race at Stratford did not work out as I have hoped. Prince Of Slane looked to find the ground a bot too soft. I didnt see him make any glaring mistakes so I was pretty dissapointed to see him fold like he did when he looked to be warming up in the race and coming to play a big role. Baron Windrush and Yogi clearly set far too fast a pace which ended their chance. More than aware that my lack of form is trying patience at the Moment. Working hard to reverse that and get into some strong form.

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TODAY'S RACING

MUSSELBURGH 4.00 -Kronenbourg 1664 Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+,0-115) 3m110y

10/11 Bafana Boy, 11/2 Humourous, 8/1 Snake Rave, 12/1 Ice Tea, Polly Whitefoot, 14/1 Commercial Express, 16/1 Bobbing Cove, Edgehill, 20/1 Dalawan, Mr Twins.

Frustratingly I have to go for the favourite BAFANA BOY as the "most likely winner" based on all long distance Novice Handicaps at this time of year but I also think EDGEHILL 16/1 is very good value and could be backable in many different ways . There have been 54 of these races and the one thing that stands out is the complete domination by lightly raced types. Horses that had ran 13 or more times before won only 2 of the 54 races and The likes of POLLY WHITEFOOT 12/1 - DALWAN 20/1 - MR TWINS 20/1 all look to exposed. HUMOROUS 11/2 and SNAKE RAVE 8/1 are 5 year olds. The last time a 5 year old won a Novice Handicap at this time of year beyond 3 miles was back in 1993 and the overall record of 1-42 is not impressive. I wouldnt say one couldnt win but they dont score that well over such a long distance. SNAKE RAVE has to come from a 2 Mile race to an extended 3 Mile race with just 4 runs worth of experience behind him. There has never been a horse do this before at this time of year with such inexperience. Horses dropping from chases like COMMERCIAL FLYER score badly and he has a new stable that may want a quiet ride. ICE TEA comes from a Novice Hurdle are carries Topweight. His trainer is quite bullish about him today stating " He has a lot of ability and 3 miles on decent ground in headgear will be the making of him". I have looked at all Novice Handicap Hurdlers that carried topweight coming from a novice hurdle and every on of the 15 that tried got beaten. Not conclusive admittedly but several were beaten favourites and no horse has done it yet. It is hard to see past BAFANA BOY the favourite. He won 10 lengths last time out in a 0-105. This is only a 0-104. His Hurdle Handicap Mark of 96 is still on the low side. He has won over Fences by 6 lengths from the same handicap mark so you would think his hurdle rating is on the low side. He is certainly the "Most likely winner" and there is every chance the favourite will win but 10/11 makes little appeal to me personally. I think EDGEHILL is interesting. He is no great shakes but this is a bad race. He has won a race before and few others can say that in this race. EDGEHILL was beaten 12 lengths last time out by BAFANA BOY at Musselburgh. He comes from the same race. That day he had to give BAFANA BOY 23lbs in weight. Today EDGEHILL only has to concede 8lbs in weight so EDGEHILL gets 15lbs in his favour. That may not be enough to turn the form around with the favourite but its not an insignificant ammount and he May well run him Very Close in this race. I would be seriously considering a few options about EDGEHILL 16/1. I think you can consider him closely for an each way bet - a Place only bet - a bet "without the favourite" and possibly even some forecast bets with the favourite. I suspect they will be 1st and 2nd today. Hard to knock the favourite but I think the value is all around EDGEHILL and what he can offer in the way of some speciality bets and I wouldnt completely rule him out of nicking the race at 16/1. The price dictates I ought to make EDGEHILL the selection each way.

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Other Thoughts

MUSSELBURGH

Musselburgh 1.30 was too hard. Looked at all previous renewals. You basically want to avoid the very high weights. Avoid the very exposed horses. Stay with Handicap form and avoid Novices if you can help it. I thought the horse that came out best purely on the trends was LERIDA 16/1 with MR EX 9/2 also scoring reasonably well but its pretty open and some of the trends may be slightly tainted by small fields. Not a race for big stakes. Or De Grugy the favourite came out 3rd best. In the Novice Hurdle (2.00) you have 3 last time out winners in Key Time 4/6 -Merrymaker 4/1 -Sharp Reply 6/1 who completely dominate the betting. None of these horses should be looked superior to each other statistically. The fact Sharp Reply has ran just once and the other pair ran twice would not worry me. You would have to say KEY TIME deserves to be favourite and has achieved the Most and may well win but the betting does suggest Merrymaker or Sharp Reply ought to be better value each way bets.

The Triumph Hurdle Trial at 2.30 is a match. Can not call it with any confidence. It wouldnt surprise me if PURPLE MOON 9/4 beat the favourite Degas Art 1/2 for a turn of foot if this turns into a slow tactical race but either can win and it simply comes down to the better price about Purple Moon being more attractive.


FONTWELL

Fontwell 1.40 - The "Trends" in the 1.40 do suggest that you have to Oppose MOBAASHER 5/2 but the very fact this preview is in the "other thoughts" part of the E Mail and not up at the top in a proper preview should give you the Hint that I am not totally convinced about why they say he should be a "negative". I will tell you the statistic that suggests he wont win. MOBAASHER 5/2 and LEONARDO'S FRIEND are unraced . There is no problem with unraced Juveniles at Conventional trips like 2 Miles , or 17f , but when a 4 year old is asked to race this far first time out its simply usually too much for him and they usually cant cope with that. There have been 65 Juvenile Hurdle races over this trip at any time of year. (27 of these are at Fontwell). The record of "Unraced" horses like MOBAASHER is miserable. Only 2 won from 75 that tried. One was Cheerful Aspect (1997) a 135 rated hurdler at best and the other was Alan King's Blazing Bailey who is fancied to win the Stayers Hurdle at this years festival. The record at Fontwell is just 1 winner from 47 runners. I am also opposing IN ON THE ACT 14/1 as fillies in this race have a weak 1-53 record. All that suggests that this race should go to one of PUR DE SIVOLA 11/10 or JIMBOREAL 6/1. Henrietta Knight trains JIMBOREAL . He ran reasonably well on his British debut. PUR DE SIVOLAIS runs for Alan King and he is a French recruit that has been chasing. Impossible to get a handle on the form of either. Alan Kings record is far superior in these races but how much credence you can put into that is unclear. My Scepticism about opposing MOBAASHER is that he was a decent flat horse and carries stable confidence - but more so the fact that I have no idea hos PUR DE SIVOLA stands in the race having been running over Fences in France and whether he has the speed of a british Flat runner. PUR DE SIVOLA would have to be a raw and naked "statistical selection" and MOBAASHER a "statistical negative" but I am not totally convinced that he cant overcome that trend and I wouldnt be opposing him with any confidence much as this wont help you much.

Fontwell 2.10 - There have been 5 renewals of this 2m 6f Selling Hurdle. All 5 winners were aged between 5 and 9 . They had between 4 and 20 career races. They all had at least 2 races that season and they didnt come from a 2 Mile race. If you apply those trends to this field then the "ideal horses" are DONT ASK ME 10/11 (from the Pipe yard that won this in 2002 and 2005) and LORD OF ADVENTURE 6/1. This isnt really a race I can get my teeth into. There are not enough renewals to be confident about what stats there are. There are hardly any similar races at other tracks. You also have runners like BARTON BEAU you cant rate. BARTON BEAU is possibly interesting. He hasnt ran in 708 days and is Trained by Miss A M Newton-Smith. This trainer won a Selliung Hurdle at Folkestone 2 years ago with a horse that had a 623 day absence from the track (Double Agent) over this trip and the market needs watching with this horse. There are too many imponderables especially with 6 runners in the race. The market is usually worth watching in these races. If Money came for BARTON BEAU I would be interested in him.

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