Sunday December 8th

No Suggested Bets


I Have not done much at all at Lingfield. Just a few scrambled notes and a couple of shortlists at the
start of the message and to be truthfull I didnt spend long on the card and treated it as the "3rd card"
today so I dont feel my opinions at Lingfield should carry much weight today. The Message then looks at Warwick which is really an issue based card . all I can do there is explain a few issues and steer you a few ways with just one complete preview done there. Kelso is the track where most work has been done today.

The races that interested me the most were the last two races at Kelso. I think these two races stood out in the message as the most managable. SILVER JACK (2.50) did make some appeal and I really liked the chance of SINATAS in the Maiden Hurdle at 3.20. I will highlight this pair but let the message stand or fall on its own without Betting on either account.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


ASHWELL was 3rd yesterday but beaten quite a way. I think the suggested each way doubles were pretty unlucky.
Whilst ASHWELL only just held on for 3rd - Hells Bay should have won really had he not hit the last and we were
done by a non runner with Esclarmonde as he came 3rd - but only 2 places were available after an outsider pulled out.
Had that not happened then the 3rd 2nd 3rd place that these 3 horses finished would have paid quite well and at least doubled your money but it wasnt to be. The rest of the message was strong and solid without taking many chances.Tough at the moment especially trying to find big priced winners. Ididnt get the Top of the message right on Saturday but we are not having preview after preview that are wrong - The vast majority of previews at the moment are on the right lines with the right issues highlighted and this leads me to feel I am not out of form. Just lacking the crucial luck in fould conditions at a bad time to be betting. Lets see how today goes.


LINGFIELD

Going to skip most of Lingfield today and try and concentrate on the National Hunt. I will make a few Observations and Shortlists without offering too much explanation

Lingfield 12.30 - Any preview would have just taken out these 6 runners without strong stats
Lingfield 12.30 - Minnow - Piccostar - Sands Crooner - Hello Roberto - Theoretical- Charlotte Grey
Lingfield 12.30 - My shortlist would be these 4 horses
Lingfield 12.30 - PUNCHING - FASTRAC BOY - THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM -SIR LOIN

Lingfield 1.00 - Horrible race but Fillies are almost always worth opposing in these races
Lingfield 1.00 - I would have opposed My Mirasol and Ella Y Rossa
Lingfield 1.00 - The only other poor profiles belonged to Cami Collins - Wind Flow

Lingfield 3.00 - I would have just given superficial negatives in the race
Lingfield 3.00 - I would have oppose the following in any preview
Lingfield 3.00 -Titan Triumph -Halsion Chancer -Sand Cat -Texas Gold - China Cherub
Lingfield 3.00 - The winner will hopefully have not been mentioned

Lingfield 3.30 - My Negatives in any shortlist would be these
Lingfield 3.30 -Formidable Guest -Mon Petite Amour -Spunger -Christalini -Reveur -Pajada

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N A T I O N A L H U N T - W A R W I C K


Thought it was a Tough card. DAVID PIPE has 3 runners in the first 3 races that are all worth commening on and
I would argue a case against all of them. In the 12.40 he runs AVANT GARDISTE who is trying to win an all aged
handicap when just a 3 year old that has ran 3 times before. No 3 year old that has had 3 runs before has ever won
a handicap hurdle against older horses before. Thats anytime of year and any distance. Thats not as persuasive a
trend as it sounds as not that many have tried. There has been 3 year old winners but none so inexperienced yet
and whilst the evidence is too flimsy to make him a negative he is still technically trying to achieve something no
3 year old has done before and That would lead me to oppose AVANT GARDISTE. The race is open and impossible
to take a strong view about. A Case has been made for MISBEHAVIOUR and I cant see why he can not win. You
have to respect OISEAU DE NUIT as well. This pair would have to be top of any list but its a tough contest.

David Pipe's second runner is in the Beginners Chase at 1.20. He runs HELEN WOOD as a 4 year old filly in a case.
There has been one of these 4 year old fillies win a chase before - but only one - and that was back in 1995 at Market
Rasen on fast ground. That was the only 4 year old female to win a chase against older horses anytime of year and in
any kind of Chase . The complete record so far is just 1 winner (1995) from 38 that tried. Several were beaten favourite
as well. This leads me to oppose HELEN WOOD with one of the other runners. BENETWOOD has a touch of class
and will appeal to favourite backers that like to get stuck in at a short price on a strong favourite especially when there
are doubts about the second favourite HELEN WOOD. However BENETWOD has ran in just one chase and wasnt
foot perfect and those that prefer their bets on lesser likely - but more rewarding biggerprices may feel the likes of
KENTMERE or CLAIMATE CHANGE may be worth considering each way in a 9 runner race with 5 apparant no hopers.
I suspect BENETWOD will probably win but 4/6 doesnt really appeal and an each way alternative whilst far from safe
may be the way to go.

David Pipe then runs MAMLOOK in the juvenile hurdle (1.40). He has a 1-1 record and is a 3 year old carrying a penalty
against mainly unraced horses. The key factor has to be the record of Penalty carriers in these races. The record if taken
overall in all similar races in November and December suggests 50% of horses like MAMLOOK win again and defy their
penalty. However the record in November is a lot better than December and does make the stat look stronger. Thats easy
to undrestand as December will see better 3 year old debutants coming out. Take the similar races only in December and
look at horses with identical profiles to MAMLOOK and you will find just 20% of these horses win. Even if you presume
that 50% of them win then you can still argue that MAMLOOK isnt great value at 4/6 anyway. If you had backed every
one of these at that price you would be losing money. Thats not to say MAMLOOK wont win but there isnt much value
there. I certainly couldnt bet ROBERT THE BRAVE. I dont like his sire and the prospect of soft ground. I cant see his
sire having many National Hunt winners. He is 0-12 so far and I suspect ROBERT THE BRAVE will make that 0-13. If this
favourite gets beaten I suspect Alan King has the best chance of doing it with SIMBA SUN or PRIDEUS who have ran just
once each . Again both can be considered potential each way bets if thats your game - whereas MAMLOOK will appeal
to the shorter priced favourite backers. As all these are so lightly raced we can only assume things. I Cant argue that
MAMLOOK is great value much as he is the most likely winner. If there is a natural each way alternative the Market may
show that later on and it is a race to consider how the market shapes up.

There is not enough evidence available in the Maiden Hurdle to take a strong view with so many unraced horses. There look
to be about 6 strongly fancied runners. Two of these are unraced. Of thehalf dozen fancied runners If I had to knock a couple
out it would be Island Flyer and Kates Gift but you can only do that with Guesswork - There is so much unsortable Irish Point
form - Bumper form and No form to take a strong view. The winner ought to be under 8/1 - well backed and probably one of
Foxspur - Oniphlaure

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WARWICK 3.10 - CHRISTMAS PARTY HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-120) 3m5f

4/1 Arnold Layne, 5/1 The Gangerman, 6/1 Bengo, Topless, 15/2 Charango Star, 10/1 Keenan´s Future, 12/1 Francines-Boy, Ironside, 16/1 Special Conquest, Victory Gunner, 20/1 Predestine.

This is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase. Just 11 runners. Its pretty sortbale. WARWICK has had 33 of these races in the last 15 years and thats at any time of year. Its quite interesting that 29 of the 33 winners Had 11st 4lbs or less. Only 4 had higher weights and No horse has won a 3m 5f chase here before in this class with 11st 11lbs or more. ARNOLDS LAYNE and KEENANS FUTURE have 11st 11lbs or more and so far horses that do that have a 0-26 record. What may be more relevant is to look at similar races in December at all tracks. It isnt really objective to just use Warwick as a Guide, but "Track form" can throw up some things. ARNOLDS LANE has to carry a weight that has not been carried before and its also fair to say that None of Warwicks 33 winners came from a Novice Race as he does. Yes he looks impressive and decent but this is a radically different test and statistically he is vulnerable. KEENANS FUTURE the other "high weight"also has to overcome the fact that no 6 year old won any of the 33 Warwick Chases before. I will oppose both. I dont fancy VICTORY GUNNER as his sire's runners deteriorate a lot at his sort of age and SPECIAL CONQUEST can also be overlooked. I dont see the case for FRANCINES - BOY and none of Warwicks 33 winners came via hurdles. IRONSIDE will probably need another run to be right. As none of Warwicks 33 winners came from Novice races I shall take on PREDESTINE and TOPLESS who is also a 6 year old and as we know Warwick hasnt had a 6 year old win over Course and Distance yet. I suppose that If you simply take every handicap chase that has been run at Warwick before - and look at what sorts of horses win these races you can argue that the two most likely winners of this race would be CHARANGO STAR and BENGO. Its quite interesting that there has been only 5 renewals of this particular race and the 5 winners all had a pretty recent run. All 5 winners had absences of 7 - 21 - 8 - 14 - 8 days and 3 of these were beaten over 25 lengths on their latest starts . Neither CHARANGO STAR or BENGO have anything to worry about after their latest runs. This pair would make
most appeal to me in an open and gruelling handicap chase.

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N A T I O N A L H U N T - K E L S O

KELSO 12:20 - BORDER DRIVEWAYS "NATIONAL HUNT" NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-105) 2m6f110y

4/1 Heez A Steel, 6/1 Dantor, Mr Floppy, 13/2 Beau Saddler, 7/1 Thenford Sir, 10/1 Doris´s Gift, 12/1 Charles Street, Polly Whitefoot, 14/1 More Equity, My Final Bid, 16/1 Mensio, 25/1 Bobbing Cove, High Delight, 50/1 Billsgrey, Rucolino.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle
* Very Open - Just 6 Kelso renewals
* There has been several other similar races at other tracks
* The important trends in these races are below
* You must avoid horses with 13 + runs
* DANTOR - POLLY WHITEFOOT - BOBBING COVE fail that
* I would ignore the horses aged 8 or more and MY FINAL BID is another out
* I would want to ignore seasonal debutants
* DANTOR - MY FINAL BID - RUCOLINO - DORIS'S GIFT
* I would want a Horse that ran within 31 days as the vast majority of winners had
* MR FLOPPY - THENFORD SIR - POLLY WHITEFOOT - BOBBING COVE have not
* Best profiles belonged to these runners
* BEAU SADDLER - HEEZ A STEEL - CHARLES STREET - MORE EQUITY - MENSIO

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KELSO 12:50 - KEN OLIVER NOVICES' CHASE (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m6f110y

11/10 Mr Strachan, 7/2 Ice Tea, Nudge And Nurdle, 5/1 Love That Benny.

Statistically there is nothing to go on as you may expect in such a race with a small field. Much depends
on how they jump. NUDGE AND NURDLE is the only one without Chase experience and with decent
novices you can argue thats a disadvantage. The only reason I am including the race is because of
MR STRACHAN. He is owned very locally to me and I know its well regarded and many locals are sure
He is a horse that will win soon. Many have been waiting for him - But I must admit I didnt think this would be
the sort of race he would go for. I will side with MR STRACHAN and pass on the Tip but this isnt a race
I or anyone can really sort out. It comes down to how they all jump in the ground.

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KELSO 1:20 - ERIC SCARTH MEMORIAL MARES ONLY NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m6f110y

2/1 Valentines Lady, 100/30 Funny Thing, 11/2 Lady Bernie, 7/1 Midnight Minnie, 8/1 Zaffarella, 9/1 Uncommited, 16/1 Meteoric Rise, 20/1 Bonnie Rock, Mini Minster, 25/1 Tinto Verano, 50/1 Bleak Friday, Loch Awe, New Source, 100/1 Crystal Runner, Hooky´s Hope, Lady Sambury.

* This is a Mares only Novice Hurdle over an extended 22f
* No outstanding negatives - certainly the 4 year old bumper runenr Meteoric Rise comes out worst
* Bumper horses can and do win these races but I dont see any I like in this race
* I would be against the following
* Midnight Minnie - Zaffarella - Meteoric Rise - Bonnie Rock - Mini Minster - Bleak Friday - Hooky´s Hop
* Should be dominated by the more experienced Market Leaders
* VALENTINES LADY does look to have the strongest profile assuming she copes with the ground
* She has won on soft but this is testing and I,d prefer to have seen more evidence
* FUNNY THING and UNCOMMITED are Irish raiders also unproven on soft
* Neither were that expensive and the big yards havent come for either and on form they look beatable
* LADY BERNIE comes on the back of 2 poor runs but has some sort of excuse for both
* Given the doubts about most I have to see VALENTINES GIRL as the safest choice

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KELSO 1:50 - PERSIMMON HOMES SCOTTISH BORDERS NATIONAL (HANDICAP CHASE) (CLASS 2) (5yo+,0-140) 4m

11/2 Trisons Star, 6/1 Delray Beach, Lucky Nellerie, Petite Margot, 13/2 Getinbybutonlyjust, 7/1 Strong Resolve, 8/1 Rambling Minster, 11/1 King Killone, Theatre Knight, 12/1 Rayshan, 16/1 Snowy, 25/1 Russian Sky, 66/1 High Moon.

* This is a 4 Mile 0-140 handicap
* There has been 35 similar races between November and January
* All 40 winners had 1 thing in common
* Unless they failed to finish their last race - All 35 winners were 1-2-3-4-5 last time out
* You dont really want a horse thats out of form or out of the placings
* I dont see SNOWY - HIGH MOON - KING KILLONE as running well enough to win
* None of the 35 winners came from 2m 6f or less and the 10f step up in trip is too radical
* HIGH MOON -RAYSHAN - THEATRE KNIGHT all fail that
* I dont see PETITE MARGOT coping in a field like this - She's out of her depth
* RAMBLING MINISTER hasnt come right this year and needs more time in my view
* Cant have RUSSIAN SKY out of the handicap coming from a Novice race
* STRONG RESOLVE scraped home last time but is up a lot in class and this is beyond him now
* TRISONS STAR is out of his comfort zone and has never ran in anything like this class
* LUCKY NELLERIE is well handicapped and Loves this track
* The downside is that he is a Nervous horse that is highly strung
* I think LUCKY NELLERIE's last run whilst poor is best ignored
* I would shortlist DELRAY BEACH - LUCKT NELLERIE and GETINBYBUTONLYJUST
* DELRAY BEACH has just beaten GETINBYBUTONLYJUST at Hexham
* The weights favour GETINBYBUTONLYJUST and I think he may reverse that form

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KELSO 2:50 - PETER K DALE CHAMPION CHASE (A HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-145) 2m6f110y

7/2 Three Mirrors, 4/1 Patricksnineteenth, Scribano Eile, 5/1 Silver Jack, 7/1 Euro American, 8/1 Ever Present, 12/1 More Likely, 20/1 Gold Heart.

* This is a 0-137 Handicap Chase over an extended 2m 6f
* THREE MIRRORS isnt really for me
* I would be worried his main target is next week at Cheltenham
* His last race was not really the preparation I would have wanted
* He has a chance but he just doesnt appeal much to me
* PATRICKNINETEETH has a chance but falling at the first makes this his seasonal debut
* SCRIBANO EILE doesnt appeal much coming from a Novice Handicap
* No horse won similar races doing that at this time of year
* EURO AMERICAN is only just out of Novices and didnt do enough last time
* I think he needs to find his own level and I dont see him winning a 0-137 today
* EVER PRESENT is badly handicapped and hard to see him winning with topweight and 316 days off
* I dont see MORE LIKELY or GOLD HEART winning
* I like SILVER JACK a lot - He was laid out for the Beecher Chase last time
* He fell that day - but has plenty of back class - is improving - and loves this Course and Distance
* SILVER JACK looks the best bet in this race

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KELSO 3.20 - 3:20 SCOTTISH FIELD MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m110y

5/1 Karlani, Silver Steel, Sinatas, 11/2 St Wilfrid, 7/1 Silver By Nature, 10/1 Cote D´Argent, Riverhill, 14/1 Bijou Dan, Victorbano, 16/1 Skipping Chapel, Snowy Day, 20/1 Cheers Thank You, 25/1 Champion Lion, 100/1 Fred Bojangals, Longy The Lash, Vie A Deux.

* This is a 2 mile maiden hurdle
* There has been 9 Kelso maiden hurdles at this time of year
* There has been 46 similar races at other tracks
* Horses like KARLANI that have 1 run this year had a 0-30 record at Kelso
* They are fine at other tracks but you'd have to be a bit worried about soft ground
* ZARLANI has hardly any form in bad ground and was ungenuine on the flat
* SILVER STEEL has also had 1 run that season (0-30) and he looks a long term prospect
* I will be surprised if he can do the business over hurdles at the minimum trip
* I shall oppose VICTORBANO and SKIPPING CHAPEL coming from a Bumper
* I dont see COTE D'ARGENT winning first time out on bad ground with his sire
* His sire has a poor strike rate over hurdles and all wins came on fast ground
* SNOWY DAY - BIJOU DAN - RIVERHILL - CHAMPION HILL are all unraced Flay types
* I dont see any of these winning first time out
* CHEERS THANK YOU makes no appeal as a Hunter Chase type
* I dont fancy SILVER BY NATURE back from 2m 4f when he should be going up in trip
* His sire hasnt got a great soft ground record anyway and he looks unsuitable
* I Would shortlist just 2 in ST WILFRID and SINATAS
* I have no problem with a Bumper horse like ST WILFRID thats got 4 runs and Graded form
* SINATAS has the best profile of those that have ran and ought to go close

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