No Account Bet

It has been quiet recently. What you find in this cyclical game is that very often that one big oppurtunity comes along and completely changes the Mood and clears away anything thats negative. It always happens. This Week will be interesting and that may happen. I Can see anything happening in the next 96 hours. There is a Good chance that the weather will wash away many fixtures and leave us nothing to bet on. There is also a Good chance I come up
with a big priced winner this week with some superb "barn storming old style" reasons for that Bet. The Weather may well set the tone but I do have 2 or 3 pretty outstanding races in the next 4 days that weather premitting I will be targetting. Wincanton today has had 10mm of overnight
rain. It is an awful days racing and I have passed only 1 race to include in todays E Mail. Thats the 2.40 at Wincanton where I think AZTEC WARRIOR may cause a minor surprise at 3/1. He is not full account strength. I dont want to preview 3/4 other races with no clear angles or conclusions just for the sake of it but anyone wanting other opinions today just Post on the Board. My Time is far better spent carving out the big priced winner we are due and I might add deserve after 3 sickeners in the last 5 bets with a 12/1 runner up (Truckers Tavern) a Faller going well (English City) and an ante post Non Runner (Bob Bob Bobbin).

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Today's Racing

There are several races at Wincanton today that force you to either bet an Odds On Chance or a short priced favourite in a massive field or bet something lightly raced. The Field sizes are simply too big in the Maiden and Novice races and the vast majority of the card is unnatractive and offers little. I want to look at the Handicap at 2.40 and nothing else catches my eye.


WINCANTON 2.40 - Betfred "The Bonus King" Novices' Chase (Class 3) (5yo+) 2m5f

7/4 Opera De Coeur, 9/4 Mister Quasimodo, 3/1 Aztec Warrior, 20/1 Royal Katidoki, 40/1 Dare Too Dream.

SELECTION - AZTEC WARRIOR


2m 5f Novice Chase. Just 5 runners. I consider AZTEC WARRIOR a good bet at 3/1 and I think he can win this race. Two of the 5 runners have little chance and we should only be considering 3 runners. I have to respect all 3 runners and there is not one that you can point to as having to be opposed but I think you can be hopefull that AZTEC WARRIOR is value for money. Henry Daly runs a 5 year old OPERA DE COEUR 11/4 and I am going to overlook his chance. Whilst he is a 5 year old - and that age group gets a very handy 10lbs allowance I think a combination of factors wont make it easy for him. His Task today is to win this race as a 5 year old coming from a 2 Mile race. There have been 113 Novice Chases over this trip in January since 1991. None of the 113 races were won by 5 year olds stepping up in trip. You would want at least one horse inthe last 15 years to have achieved just what Opera De Coeur is being asked to do today but none have. I would not make him a negative because of that as not enough have tried and failed but it is not going to be easy for him to step up 5 furlongs today. You would not be certain he would stay this trip anyway and at 11/4 with 3 serious dangers I want to be against him. MISTER QUASIMODO 4/1 is well fancied and will stay being out of a Dam that was second in a Gold Cup. You would argue that He is from the weakest of the fancied stables in this race but he is a good jumper. He gained a bloodless win at Exeter last time beating poor horses but he jumped well and has some good form in the book over hurdles and fences. I think AZTEC WARRIOR may win at 4/1. It is interesting that he is a 133 rated Chaser running in a Novice Chase. The 2006 winner of this race was rated 115 . The 2005 winner rated just 115. The winner in 2004 ended up a 129 horse and the winners in 2003 and 2002 were rated 116 and 124. AZTEC WARRIOR is already rated higher than all recent past winners of this race. I also like the fact that his trainer Henrietta Knight has ran 2 horses in this race before and Both won. She trained One Nation (2004) and Juralan (2002). I like the fact he has had a few runs this year. Both the last 2 winners had 3-4 starts that season. I am not worried that like Mister Quasimodo AZTEC WARRIOR has a 6lbs penalty for winning a Class 3 Novice race. The only horse that had that penalty in this race before won. He was always going to struggle on his chase debut pitched into a Grade 2 Novice Chase (Rising Stars race) without any experience and it told us nothing as he slipped after the first fence. His next race where He won 5 lengths was effectively his chase debut and whilst the horse he beat may not be as good as their rating he did beat horses rated 132 and 135. I thought his last run at Cheltenham was quite good. It was a Hot race won by a decent sort and Henrietta Knight has had over a Month to get him schooled and re schooled. Several past winners of this race came from a long absence to win . I think he is Clear Value at around 3/1 with only 2 dangers.

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