Cheltenham Tuesday

1 Further Account Bet

Cheltenham 4.00 - IRISH RAPTOR 25/1 £20 Each Way

Cheltenham 4.00-DISTANT THUNDER 9/1 £60 win (Already Advised)

IRISH RAPTOR is 25/1 with Ladbrokes - Skybet - Sp Odds - Corals - Paddy Power

Total Stake on the race is now £100 as per Normal

I have finished off the 4.00 William Hill Trophy. Happy with the Final conclusion much as it will not be easy
to take a profit from the race. I have added IRISH RAPTOR at 25/1 as my second choice in the race. Obviously
it wont be easy for him to win but if he frames we cant lose on the race and I think he has a good chance of a
place. Obviously its likely we will leave the race empty handed but the rewards are there if we win. I am happy
with my Champion Hurdle opinion. I am going for Straw Bear 7/1 but also having a saver on Detroit City to beat
him. I feel both are the main improvers with realistic chances in the race and I think one of these will win. The Supreme Novices (2.00) , Arkle (2.35) , Cross Country (4.40)and Fred Winter (5.20) supporting races are just token races that I have looked at without strong opinions.

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Personal Opinions

Cheltenham 2.00 - De Soto 16/1 with a saver on Amaretto Rose
Cheltenham 2.35 - Buena Vista 12/1 with a saver on My Way De Solzen
Cheltenham 3.15 - Straw Bear 8/1 win bet . Forecast on Detroit City to beat Straw Bear
Cheltenham 4.00 - Distant Thunder 9/1 + Irish Raptor 25/1 each way
Cheltenham 4.40 - Heads on the Ground each way 9/2
Cheltenham 5.20 - Pouvoir 11/2 with a saver on Gaspara 4/1

Statistical Shortlists

Cheltenham 2.00 - Amaretto Rose 5/2 - Orbit O'Gold 25/1
Cheltenham 2.35 - Buena Vista - Fair Along - My Way De Solzen - Jack The Giant - Twist Magic
Cheltenham 3.15 - Straw Bear 8/1
Cheltenham 4.00 - Heltornic 14/1 and Irish Raptor 25/1
Cheltenham 4.40 - No Trends Available
Cheltenham 5.20 - No Trends Available

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Today's Racing


CHELTENHAM 2.00 - Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

9/4 Amaretto Rose, 6/1 Hide The Evidence, 7/1 De Valira, 8/1 Granit Jack, 11/1 Wins Now, 14/1 De Soto, 16/1 Rindoon, Tipperary All Star, Tyson, 20/1 Hobbs Hill, Kicks For Free, Orbit O´Gold, 25/1 Kalderon, 33/1 Ebaziyan, 66/1 I´m So Lucky, Shanghide, 100/1 Cedrus Libani, Special Envoy, 150/1 Le Burf, She´s Our Daisy, 250/1 Classic Role, 500/1 Oh Danny Boy.

SELECTION - DE SOTO 16/1 with a saver on AMARETTO ROSE

STATISTICAL SHORTLIST - AMARETTO ROSE 5/2 , ORBIT ' OGOLD 25/1

Amaretto Rose has always been one of my main fancy for this race - and many a day did I think about betting her myself when she was 9/2 and 5/1 but I did not and may regret that. However - she is getting ever so short a price now. Her strengths have already been well doccumented. I love the fact she has the sex allowance when she has proven so much already. I like Mares in this race. They won it in 1995-1998-2002. I think you can argue that her destructive form could be flattering and that she has been over-rated but we wont know that until after the race and the Highly significant thing for me in this years race is how Many of her main market rivals have huge statistical problems to overcome. Its a pretty rare thing for a Supreme Novices winner not to come here on the back of a win yet so Many of AMARETTO ROSE's rivals can not say that. DE VALIRA cant and was disssapointing last time out. HIDE THE EVIDENCE also failed to win last time and many are questioning the Suitability of the track for him. I think there is a sound Each Way argument for HIDE THE EVIDENCE. The only trend he fails is that he did not win last time out but he took on the games best Hurdlers like Hardy Eustace , Brave Inca , Macs Joy in the Irish Champion Hurdle as his trainer did not want to run him with a Grade 1 penalty against Novices. He had previously won the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle by 6 lengths. Thats a Grade 1 race and the same race Like a Butterfly won before winning this race. I dont want KICKS FOR FREE who like others failed to win last time. GRANIT JACK came out as having the wrong preperation. I cant believe there have been many Supreme Novices that have never done the distance before and He has not. Quite what Opposition there is to AMARETTO ROSE is not clear. It looks a very weak Irish raiding party to me and a very hollow amount of class to take the favourite on with. ORBIT OF GOLD 25/1 is statistically fine on the strength of winning at 50/1 when beating De Valira in his trial race. That may well have flattered him but not neccesarily and he won well that day.

CONCLUSION

At the Prices I am going with DE SOTO at 16/1 and saving on the favourite. I think you have to leave the race making sure that if AMARETO ROSE wins you can not lose. Thats my personal view. I am only making her the saver as her price is too short to excite me now. I was quite taken with what Steve Mason the Racing Post Handicapper said. Awarding AMARETTO ROSE her rating, he said it was a rating that would have won 8 of the last 10 Supreme Novice Hurdles. To that you can also add the sex allowance as well. She does look good. I think AMARETTO ROSE will either win this race as she should - or she will dissapoint. I think you would have to make her at the very least a saver if you do take her on. I am slightly tempted at the prices by DE SOTO at 16/1. In terms of Class this horse has it. He was second in the 2005 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham having ran in just one Bumper before. It took him a long time to come right after that. He hacked up at Taunton in December. Won easily again at Kempton. His defeat in the Tolworth hurdle was simply the bad ground. He hates it heavy. The ground drying out is very much in his favour. He could easily get outclassed but this is not a vintage race - the Irish dont seem to have one stand out runner and at 16/1 you never know.

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CHELTENHAM 2:35 -Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) 2m

100/30 Fair Along, My Way De Solzen, 4/1 Don´t Push It, 10/1 Buena Vista, 12/1 Lennon, Twist Magic, 16/1 Gemini Lucy, Jack The Giant, Tidal Fury, 20/1 Faasel, Good Spirit, 25/1 Another Promise, 100/1 Vintage Treasure.

SELECTION - BUENA VISTA with a saver on My Way De Solzen

STATISTICAL SHORTLIST - FAIR ALONG - MY WAY DE SOLZEN - BUENA VISTA - JACK THE GIANT - TWIST MAGIC

There are about 9 runners that can win the Arkle Chase this year. If you want to religiously apply the trends then the race can be brought down to 5 likely winners but that is far too many still. Rightly or Wrongly I am going to ignore the chances of DONT PUSH IT as he has never ran in Graded Class before over fences or hurdles and every past winner of this race had done that. I dont like the preperations of GEMINI LUCY , TIDY FURY or GOOD SPIRIT. The 5 shortlisted runners I have are these - Fair Along - My Way De Solzen - Buena Vista - Jack The Giant - Twist Magic . I want to take on the favourite FAIR ALONG at the price. This will be his biggest field to date and he is a small horse and he wont get away with any mistakes here and there has to be a chance he wont see out the hill. He could get done tactically with so many front runners and I just think conditions will be far different to the ones that have seen him look impressive so far. It makes no sense to bet a Chaser thats had just one run like FAASEL despite big odds. LENNON doesnt have his ideal ground. TWIST MAGIC needs further for me and looks outclassed and slightly short of experience. I would be interested in BUENA VISTAand MY WAY DE SOLZEN. At the prices I am going with BUENA VISTA. There is enough value at 12/1 to save on MY WAY DE SOLZEN. He looks a class jumper. The only time this horse has lost when jumping fences was at Sandown when FAIR ALONG beat him but I dont think he appreciated the track .He may have found the race coming too quick and he did give Fair Along weight as well. Two devestating wins since and back on a track he loves I think he can get away with this 2 Mile trip. You can argue MY WAY DE SOLZEN wants further and thats a legitimate case to make but the ground will make this ride like a 2m 2f race and he could have the race run to suit him if he is held up. I think he is the best horse in the race on "Form" and he will like the ground. As long as he gets luck in running there should not be a horse staying on better and I think his class advantage Will take him close. What I wont do is advise him at 3/1. I think BUENA VISTA is better value for David Pipe. It should not be forgotten he was a class hurdler and 3rd in last years Supreme NoviceHurdle. Having 2 runs over fences is no concern at all. I dont see why he should not win. He may avoid any of the trouble and it a couple make mistakes there is no reason at all why he shouldnt win this

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CHELTENHAM 3.15 - Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 (Class 1)

2/1 Detroit City, 3/1 Hardy Eustace, 7/2 Brave Inca, 7/1 Straw Bear, 14/1 Asian Maze, Iktitaf, Sublimity, 25/1 Afsoun, 100/1 Kawagino, 500/1 Marble Garden,

SELECTION - STRAW BEAR 7/1 with a forecast of Detroit City to beat Straw Bear

STATISTICAL SHORTLIST - STRAW BEAR 8/1

Last year the only Statistically Perfect horse BRAVE INCA won the race. This year the Only Statistically perfect horse is STRAW BEAR 7/1. Like myself you will have your own ideas of what bet you want to have here. Like myself you have probably changed your mind several times during the season. What frustrates me about races like this as a "Tipster" is that if I tip Anything - and the horse you originally fancied wins the race then all I have done is put you off the winner that you have fancied all year round. Thats fine and acceptable when I can give you clear cut reasons why you may have been wrong - and when I can shed some light on a race that hasnt been shone already but the truth of the matter is that in this race I can not do that. As Tony Mc Coy and Ruby Walsh have said recently there is not a "bad jump between the market leaders" and thats true. In terms of a selection and trends in the race I am more than happy not to bet a 10 year old. For reasons given in the Book I feel its too old. HARDY EUSTACE was never considerd as a Likely selection for this race especially on bad ground. BRAVE INCA won what I felt was a substandard race last year and I have been happy to oppose him despite the knowledge that he must go pretty close IKTITAF does not look a Champion. I cant entertain SUBLIMITY. I have to have STRAW BEAR very high on my list. He is probably the real value in the race. The issue with DETRIOT CITY as a 5 year old has been well discussed. Take out his age and DETRIOT CITY would have a bomb proof profile. My
own decision about the poor 5 year old stats is clear. I would choose to ignore it. No 5 year old has come close to achieveing what this Monster of a horse has done. He has already won the Cesarevitch on the Flat and broke the track record in the best Triumph Hurdle in years. I would not use DETRIOT CITY's age as an argument against him. He is capable of Making a bad mistake though. His jockey Richard Johnson is worried about the soft ground. I think he is a marvellous horse and I wont be surprised to see him win but I dont see great value at 2/1 myself. My Champion Hurdle Shortlist is both STRAW BEAR and DETRIOT CITY . A Win bet on DETRIOT CITY doesnt offer me much value especially as I would want to save on STRAW BEAR. I think a perfectly sensible bet would be STRAW BEAR at 7/1. I also think that the Forecast of DETROIT CITY to beat STRAW BEAR could be value as well. Thats exactly what happened in the Agfa Hurdle last time out and somethese these Championship races have an uncanny knack of producing exactly the same 1st and 2nd as there was in the Trial race. I See two bets here than stand out above all others and this is what I will be doing -

* Win Bet on STRAW BEAR at 8/1
* A Forecast on DETRIOT CITY to beat STRAW BEAR

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CHELTENHAM 4:00 - William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) 3m110y

11/2 Little Brick, 7/1 Juveigneur, 8/1 Distant Thunder, New Alco, 10/1 Commercial Flyer, Rambling Minster, 12/1 Heltornic, 16/1 Gallant Approach, Lacdoudal, 20/1 D´Argent, Heez A Dreamer, 25/1 Cornish Rebel, Innox, Irish Raptor, King Harald, Mon Mome, 33/1 Lord Sam, 40/1 All In The Stars, 50/1 Joes Edge, Ross Comm, Sir Rembrandt, 66/1 Ballycassidy, St Matthew


Selection - DISTANT THUNDER

Statistically Perfect Runners - HELTORNIC & IRISH RAPTOR

I dealt with this race in Yesterdays E Mail

In terms of "savers" in the race (Distant Thunder is a £60 win bet)

HELTORNIC was considered at 14./1 and if she wins I feel its a success for the stats

RAMBLING MINISTER is a very decent option. Just may be a bit inexperienced - and his price has now gone

IRISH RAPTOR 25/1 also appeals. It seems a little unfair that he has to give weight to HELTORNIC and RAMBLING MINSTER both of whom won better races last time out - but IRISH RAPTOR won his race with a big weight , They won theirs with featherweights and IRISH RAPTOR is definately improving. I think there is a good chance he is on a strong upward curve - wheras Rambling Minster and Heltornic had their "Festivals" last time out. There is not much in it at the weights. IRISH RAPTOR has been an improving Novice and has progressed and proved himself in Handicap company. He is one of only 2 statistically perfect runners. He may well be biting off a bit more than he can chew but 25/1 seems a very big price to me.

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CHELTENHAM 4:40 - SPORTING INDEX HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f SOFT

7/2 Heads Onthe Ground, 5/1 Spot Thedifference, 7/1 Star Performance, 10/1 Le Duc, 11/1 Royal Auclair, 12/1 Native Jack, Never Compromise, 14/1 Ivoire De Beaulieu, Silver Birch, 16/1 L´Aventure, Marcus Du Berlais, 20/1 Omni Cosmo Touch, 25/1 Florida Dream, Il De Boitron, 33/1 Tyssac, 100/1 Hever Road.

There is some strength in depth in this race. I was not enamoured by the trends (or lack of them) in this race. I have to try and get SPOT THE DIFFERENCE beaten as a 14 year old. This remarkable horse has defied both logic and past stats when winning races like this that he excels in. Overall I can not ignore the fact that HEADS ON THE GROUND has just 10st 2lbs and gets 24lbs weight from a 14 year old. I watched his latest win and he was always going to win and he looks the natural successor to SPOT THE DIFFERENCE when he retires. Handicapping doesnt always make a lot of difference in races like this as the field are stop-start all the way and tactical acumen matters far more. You can never be totally confident in races like this but at 4/1 or 9/2 I would have to side with HEADS ON THE GROUND each way. His Sire bred last years winner. He is the selection each way.


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CHELTENHAM 5:20 - Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo) 2m110y

7/2 Gaspara, 5/1 Pouvoir, 12/1 Jayo, Madroos, Pancake, Silver Jaro, 14/1 Altilhar, Belord, 20/1 Deputy Consort, Laustra Bad, Shazand, 25/1 Junior, King´s Revenge, Ned Ludd, Stumped, 33/1 Markington, Zilcash, 40/1 Gracechurch, Risk Runner, Supsonic, Warne´s Way, 50/1 Celtic Warrior, Jack Absolute, Midnight Traveller.
Selection - GASPARA

Statistically Perfect Runners - No Trends Available

There are no Angles here. This Listed 4 year old Novice Handicap has only been run twice before. In fact there has never been another Listed Class race for 4 year olds run before anywhere at any time of year so you are completely in the dark statistically. All eyes on GASPARA who won on Saturday at Sandown in a 0-132 Handicap. This race looks no harder despite the fact Mc Coy does not ride today. For me either the 3 day absence GASPARA has will work as a huge advantage - or work against her and we have no way of knowing which. What would worry me most about GASPARA is that she is the only filly taking on 23 Males. What I like about her is the 3 day absence as that could be a big advantage. If you can get POUVIOR beaten then there is not a runner under 14/1 so quite what strength in depth there is against her is doubtfull. Half the field are well over 33/1. POUVOIR has been laid out for the race and has been favourite until Gaspara won 3 days ago. I would want both on my side. At the Prices I feel a Win bet on POUVOIR at 11/2 and a saver on GASPARA at 4/1 is highly likely to protect stakes. The only way you can lose money is with a 14/1 + winner. Without any strong angles in the race confidence is not high but thats how I would go.

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