Friday


No Account Bet

I think FAKENHAM is fine as a card if you are prepared to fight hard for short priced horses or take some bigger risks. On the card one interesting bet for me is in the Bumper and SWAYTHE 7/1 but Bumper races can be very hard races to get right and the Market can always collapse and I can not be sure that he is fit and trying today. I thought the rest of the card was Scrappy. Over at Sandown I think WHITENZO may upset the favourite in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup. He is a reasonable price at 2/1 and any of the more agressive punters may wish to consider him as a possible each way option even at that price with only 7 runners. The other race I liked was at Sandown in the 2.25. Good stats race this. I think DUNBRODY MILLAR could be the one at 4/1. I am going again without a Bet. I know I said there may be one but there is more choice tomorrow and they will come when they come and todays messages really turned out different to the one I was planning. More a panoramic and general overview with plenty of points to make.

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* Talking Points - Yesterday's Summary

Better E Mail yesterday. We now know how Good that 0-242 Bumper statistic was in the Chepstow Maiden hurdles
as it led to Snow Patrol winning easily from the main danger and led to the odds on favourite losing in Division 2. Great statistic. Pleased with the results much as it was never a couple of races where we could have made a huge amountt from. Important Psychological message though. The Negatives have been really top notch in the last week or so and thats what I need to be working well in order to find big priced account bets.


* Talking Points - Cheltenham Book

Decided what I am able to do with this. Basically you have two Options. You can have the Book free of charge if you want to read it on the Message Board or you can pay for a Copy if you want it by Post. The Book stands at about 60 pages. It will be spiral bound and sent Via the Post to anyone that requests that facility. There will be a £16 charge though for printing, binding and posting as its a big job and I don't want to rack up huge costs in money and time. I think thats more than reasonable especially as its Free to read for anyone who does not want to pay anything. Doesnt make any difference to me but I don't want to tie up a Full day dispatching it and costing me the best part of a Grand for the privilege ! I will Post the Book in its entirety on the Message Board in the Ante Post section of the board quite soon. You can always print it of yourself if you want to do it that way. I will leave it with you for your individual preferences. Its not cheap at £16 for "Postal copies" but I have no publishing house behind me and you don't have to pay anything if you just want to read it on the Board. I am told I can not send it by E Mail as the File will be too large with so many recipients.

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Todays Racing

SANDOWN 1.50 - VC Bet "Front Runners In US Racing" Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo) 2m110y

7/4 Warsaw Pact, 2/1 Paradi, 7/2 Lester Leaps In, 6/1 Markington, 20/1 Patoma, 40/1 Dynamic Rhythm, James Street.

SELECTION - Warsaw Pact 9/4 with a saver on Markington 4/1

Heavy Ground. This puts me off MARKINGTON 4/1 a little bit notwithstanding his experience. He is neither Bred for Bad ground or ever considered to want it and I would have to only consider him as "saver" material. I suppose his strength and experience count for a Lot and had there been 8 runners there would have been worse each way bets but I do think the ground is not as he would want it. I also want to Oppose the Unraced LESTER LEAPS IN 8/1. It is not so much that he is unraced. So to is Warsaw Pact but Idon't like his Sire's record. He is by Red Ransom. This sire has a 0-35 record when the Ground rides soft or heavy. Red Ransom also has a 0-42 record with Horses aged 3 or 4 years old. He has not bred a Heavy ground winner on the Flat either and on Breeding trends LESTER LEAPS IN looks to have a weak looking profile. I could only bet WARSAW PACT or PARADI. Hard to choose. WARSAW PACT was a 85 rated Flat horse. He has not proven he can handle ground this bad yet but his sire does get heavy ground types. He was bought for £200 grand at the October Sales out of Mark Prescotts stable and the fact his buyer went to such costs (where he outbid Both JP Mc Manus and Graham Wylie) suggests he may be very good. I also have no statistical problems with unraced 4 year old hurdlers on heavy ground surprisingly enough. PARADI has ran in a Grade 1 race so is clearly no mug. I cant see one of this pair not winning but how on earth can you choose between them ? I was not impressed with PARADI at Chepstow and I dont like betting juvenile hurdlers on the back of a poor run especially as short prices and you need a Man and not a boy at this trace. I think the bet here is WARSAW PACT at 9/4 and a saver on MARKINGTON who whilst on ground too soft for him will at least stand up and be counted
when it starts to hurt.

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FAKENHAM 2.00 - West Norfolk Sporting Trust Selling Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+,0-90) 2m

7/2 Sean Og, 11/2 Alasil, 6/1 A Double Ewe Bee, 7/1 Needwood Spirit, 9/1 Bathwick Rox, 10/1 Major Jon, 11/1 Perky Peaks, 12/1 Kova Hall, 14/1 Princess Stephanie, 16/1 Maria Bonita, Mialyssa, 20/1 Explode, 25/1 Arabie, Queen Tara.

You have some complications in this Selling Handicap hurdle. The horses that seem to e the "Right types" are also facing Long absences from the trac. Looking at all angles in this race I think my most important requirement would be a Fit horse. From 48 Selling Handicap Hurdle races at this time of year I really dont like the record of horses that had an absence. Those that had been off the track 7 weeks or more had a very poor 3-163 record .Horses that had 80+ days absences in all selling handicap hurdles in February have appalling records. In fact under 2m 2f since 1993 they have a 0-119 record. This has to be a serious concern for these horses. I would be looking to oppose these horses. These include DOUBLE EWE BE (82 days absence) PEAKY PEAKS (80 days) BATHWICK ROX (57 days) PRINCESS STEPHANIE (215 days), MIALYSSA (152 days). The other types I would personally want to oppose are the inexperienced 4 and 5 year olds. The Horses with less than 5 career starts that were aged just 4 or 5. The record of these horses is 2-66 which is actually better than I thought it would have been but its still weak and I want to oppose these types such as SEAN ORG , BATHWICK ROX , ARABIE , KOVA HALL and QUEEN TARA. I would also want to take out the runners with 1 race this season like MIALYSSA and MARIA BONITA. There has been a big gamble on MARIA BONITA (14/1-7/1) which is partly Racing Post inspired but she is not for me before I know she is race fit. The Sub 10st horses that have dreadful records like EXPLODE. This is a race where you have to take on the weak and the Young - but you also have to take on the Unfit as well and thats why I feel the 3 Most Likely winners "statistically are these horses -

ALASIL 7/1 -MAJOR JON 10/1 -NEEDWOOD SPIRIT 7/1

The Racing Post say that "ALASIL ran well enough in a Nottingham Flat handicap in October to suggest he can handle soft going " but what they dont say is that His trainer commented after the race that he hated the ground that day and if it is really soft it would put me off him. NEEDWOOD SPIRIT won this race last year and I Would have tipped him last year but for a very inexperienced pilot that put me off. He is a dodgpot though and I think this is a harder race and I would only consider him in a smaller field and now a 12 year old he isnt for me. MAJOR JON Ran very badly last time out and on that run its not easy to fancy him. AT 11/1 though I would give him the benefit of the doubt and I will "Guess" at him as the selection


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FAKENHAM 2.10 - Today - Scrap The Act Handicap Chase (For The Prince Carlton Challenge Cup) (Class 4) (5yo+,0-100) 3m110y

10/11 Be Telling, 7/1 Day Du Roy, 8/1 Baron Blitzkrieg, Viciana, 9/1 Alfadora, 10/1 Spider Boy.

SELECTION - BE TELLING 10/11

The Prince Carlton Challenge Cup has cut up this year with a small field and a Hot favourite called BE TELLING. He is Topweight and thats a Good sign for favourite backers. There is a very strong "High weight bias" in this race. Year after Year the Topweights seem to win this race. Theree could be many reasons for this. It might be the contours of a very sharp front runners track. It could also be Because this is a very poor type of race , it is usually won by horses that have achieved things in better class that are proven horses against Rubbish horses with no potential at the bottom of the weights who haven't had the ability to work their way up the handicap. Whatever the reasons Topweights have won 6 of the 12 renewals of this race. They may well have improved that last year as the Topweight in 2006 Longstone Loch still had every chance when falling. Either way BE TELLING is a very strong runner with Topweight. He is a hot favourite as he ran in a better race last time and was 30 lengths clear when Falling two fences from home. He has been given time to get over that fall and as he would have won very easily last time out he has not been hit hard by the handicapper in raising him 7lbs. I could not bet VICIANA 6/1 as he has a question about his Fit he is. I certainly can not bet ALFADORA or SPIDER BOY. Horses in this race with less than 10st 9lbs have weak records. ALFADORA is trying to become the first 7 year old winner of this race and SPIDER BOY is
out of the Handicap. I suspect DAY DU ROY and BARON BLITZKREIG are the biggest dangers to the strong favourite.

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SANDOWN 2.25 -vcbet.co.uk For Us Racing And Results Handicap Chase (For The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup) (Class 3) (5yo+,0-135) 3m110y

2/1 Schuh Shine, 7/2 Irish Raptor, 5/1 Mokum, 5/1 Dunbrody Millar, Lord ´N´ Master, 8/1 Tanterari, 9/1 Fool On The Hill.


SELECTION - DUNBRODY MILLAR 4/1

Historically I think this race (14 year history) is a LIGHTWEIGHTS Race

Horses with 11st 6lbs or more have a 1-33 record in this race
Horses with 10st 6lbs or Less have a 8-19 record in this race

That to me is quite compelling. I Think the gruelling Sandown hill may be the reason on bad ground .The 1 winner came in 2005 (the last time this race was run) and the Winner and Second were High Weighted horses. There is a chance that the 2005 renewal was not a truly run race but all things considered I have to Strongly consider Lighter Weighted Horses. In this race the favourites SCHUH SHINE 2/1 and IRISH RAPTOR 7/2 are "high weights" and MAY be vulnerable. The 2 horses with Lightweights that would appear to be very appealing are MOKUM 5/1 and LORD 'N' MASTER 7/1 but HOLD THAT THOUGHT for a Moment. I cant have either of these runners. I will start trying to Narrow the race down a bit.

Idon't want MOKUM despite the Light Weight. Despite the Perfect weight I have several problems with him. I am not happy about him being a 6 year old. Although only 2 tried to win this race both were fancied and ran very badly. I have looked at every Handicap Chase beyond 3 Miles inFebruaryy in Class 3 or higher and all 18 Horses aged 6 lost. Admittedly it is not a compelling stat as only 18 have tried but 4 were favourites and it has not been done before. MOKUM also jumps from a 0-105 to a 0-132. One of my biggest issues with him is the Ground though. Idon't see much heavy ground form their at all. His Sire has a weak 1-38 record on soft and Heavy and Tony Carrol his trainer has strongly intimated that MOKUM doesnt want bad ground and requires "decent ground". The Ground worries me
for him and he has not ran well whenever he has raced at Sandown before. I cant have LORD 'N' MASTER 14/1. He is an 11 year old with a 579 day absence. Remember on Wednesday I opposed a horse aged 11 with a long absence (Admiral Peary) from Charlie Egertons stable. LORD 'N' MASTER 7/1 fails the same statistic that states

" In January andFebruaryy in Handicap Chases on soft ground at this trip and beyond ALL 83 horses aged 11 or more that were having their first run of the season were beaten. "

I cant have him or TANTERARI 12/1 . He has ran two deplorable races. I have looked at all similar races (and there have been over 100 of these) and looked for precedents of horses that ran deplorably badly and look out of form bouncing back to win. There are hardly any precedents and it hardly ever happens and that has to put me off him. I Cant haveFOOL ON THE HILL 12/1. His trainer says he wants 3 miles, a small field and good ground. He gets the first two but not the ground and a son of Reprimand wont want the ground this Heavy.

So despite starting with the LIGHTWEIGHTS bias i find myself struggling for genuine Light Weight Challenges I cant recommend the high weighted horses simply because they are too short in the market with that Trend against them. SCHUH SHINE clearly has a good chance if he can successfully return to chasing having been hurdling and he will find this easier than the Tommy Whitle Chase where he was an excellent 4th in a far better race than this. He has also won his last 3 hurdle races. IRISH RAPTOR is a progressive chaser but he has a high weight - he ran badly last time (which is a statistical negative in these races) and he is unproven off his current handicap Mark.

This leaves DUNBRODY MILLAR as the selection. He is Not a High weight. He should be fit now after a reasonably good run at Plumpton last time out. Several trip droppers have won this race. It should not be forgotten that DUNBRODY MILLAR won the Agfa Diamond Handicap Chase here a Year ago off the same Mark. That may be significant as the Agfa Diamond is almost an identical race to this one. Its very much its twin. That was a 0-143 Handicap. This is a 0-129 Handicap. Admittedly it was on Firm Ground but 3 of his 4 wins came on Bottomless ground and he handles it fine. He seems to be the Ideal "Compromise" candidate away from the high weights and without the concerns of the lightweights


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SANDOWN 3.00 - Royal Artillery Gold Cup Chase (For Amateur Riders) (Class 3) (5yo+,0-130) 3m110y

4/7 Back Nine, 15/8 Whitenzo, 12/1 Temple Dog, 25/1 Cedar Chief, Clearly In Motion, 50/1 Tiawana, Wild About Harry.

SELECTION - WHITENZO

Royal Artillery Gold Cup. Steeped in History but I am not bothered by that this year. It is a race that was moved back from late March in 2001 and has only been run 6 times in February before. Idon't think you need stats in this race. This looks a Match on the Ratings with WHITENZO (Rated 126) and BACK NINE (Rated 120) a long way clear of TEMPLE DOG (Rated 96). WHITENZO won this race in 2005 by 12 lengths. BACK NINE was beaten in a Photo in this race last year. As the Racing Post point out both horses ran in the same race at Wincanton last time out. BACK NINE finished 10 lengths ahead of WHITENZO. In a way the Post are correct to assume that on that run it does all "Point firmly to Back Nine" winning today but I have 3 reasons why that may not be the case and why I could not bet
BACK NINE today. Firstly BACK NINE is 4/7 and his domination is reflected in the market and its very skinny odds. Secondly you cant assume last time out was relevant. This Artillery Gold Gold Cup is a race horses are laid out for and why on earth would Paul Nicholls want WHITENZO at his best before the race. His last race may well have been a "prep race" and today is all that matters for the connections and he Pulled up before he won this race in 2005. Thirdly J SNOWDEN is a superb jockey in these Sandown Amateur Riders races. In fact he is"THE" Jockey to have. He is Mc Coy and Fallon rolled into one and his superior jockeyship has to be worth plenty on a track he rides like
no other. Quite remarkably J SNOWDEN has a 10-17 record at Sandown in Amateur races. At this trip he has a 7-12 record which is a superb 58% strike rate. He won this race in 2003-2005-2006. There is no better jockey for this race and thats why I select WHITENZO to win.

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FAKENHAM 3.45 - Preserve The Grey Partridge Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+,0-115) 2m7f110y

15/8 Nudge And Nurdle, 9/2 New Perk, 5/1 Come Bye, 7/1 Delightful Cliche, 15/2 Hot Lips Page, 11/1 Lease Back, 16/1 Good Potential, Shingle Street, 20/1 Major Euro, 25/1 Wicked Nice Fella.

SELECTION - NUDGE AND NURDLE

There are no clear trends from the 3 renewals of this race but there are from the 94 similar races at other tracks. Unfortunately these trends do make it quite hard to Oppose NUDGE AND NURDLE the 2/1 favourite. This is a race that NEW PERK won last year in a Photo off a Mark of "90". This year he is off "95"and in a better renewal. Last year was a 0-102 and this is a 0-115. NEW PERK is an exposed horse. Exposed horses can , and do win but there isn’tt a doubt that they are "usually" beaten by unexposed horses. In the 94 similar races to this ONLY 3 of these races went to horses that had more than 20 career starts. Now one of those 3 races was in fact NEW PERK in this race last year so it can be done but given a clear choice of a lightly raced progressive horse or an experienced and exposed horse I would side with the progressive horse every time. GOOD POTENTIAL and COME BYE are exposed 11 year olds and these sorts don't win as many races as these as you would like much as they are reasonable prices . I cant have the outsiders or the Unfit LEASE BACK. It is a veryrare thing for a 5 year old like SHINGLE STREET to cope with the step up from 17f to 23f and he is rejected. There is Nothing much wrong with HOT LIPS PAGE's profile but I am not sure he will stay. His Sire (Hamas) has not sired a winner beyond 12f on the Flat yet and none beyond 2m6f over jumps yet and there is a doubt much as he has not much further to travel in this race after a good second last time. DELIGHTFUL CLICHE is fine on paper but I would be worried about the ground for him. It is hard to see past NUDGE AND NURDLE and NEW PERK.

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SANDOWN 4:10 - OLBG.co.uk Tipster Community Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+,0-110) 2m4f110y

6/4 Prime Bere, 11/2 Noeud Vert, 8/1 Ruling Reef, Whosethatfor, 10/1 Black And Tan, Hiho Silver Lining, 12/1 John Forbes, 14/1 Scaramouche, 16/1 Mount Benger, 20/1 Gaelic Gift, Jades Double, 25/1 Georges Boy, 40/1 Fisby, 66/1 Drat,

SELECTION - NONE

This has already been a Long message. If I wrote down in detail just how many statistical reasons there are why PRIME BEAR wont win you wouldn’t get this message till after Racing Finished. 4 year old filly-Bad Ground - In Handicap company -Beyond 2.4 Miles - Coming from a 4yo only race !!! Believe me No horse has ever come close to achieving that before. And I have not even mentioned its a Grade 1 track and a big field. PRIME BERE was mightily impressive last time out and of course she is Thrown in on her French form.We’ve been here before with these 4 year old fillies. 9 Times out of 10 the trends work, these horses flop and I get a warm slug glow. Once in 10 they Bolt up and I feel sick. How I planned to approach my Preview on the race was simple. I was not going to preview the race. I knew PRIME BERE was a dead duck statistically but I also knew she was extremelyy well handicapped and so impressive last time that it was not inconceivable that she might win. The reason I ended up doing a preview was that I saw she was 10lbs out of the handicap and thats Another Serious blow to her chance. I wont labour on about other trends and angles in the race. All I can say is that I wont make a selection but there was not a horse that runs in this race with a strong profile. I do not like the race and I cant have this favourite at 6/4.

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FAKENHAM 4.55 - Countrysports For Countryside EBF/DBS Mares' Only Intermediate Open Flat Race (Qualifier) (Class 4) (4-7yo) 2m

15/8 Fiddling Again, 11/4 Katess, 11/2 Swaythe, 13/2 Theatre Girl, 9/1 Pia Jane, 14/1 Gobejolly, 16/1 Back The Music, 25/1 Dovedon Lane, Won More Night, 50/1 Itsy Bitsy.

SELECTION - SWAYTHE 5/1

I have to Oppose Nicky Henderson's FIDDLING AGAIN in this race. In last years race we opposed one of his 4 year old filly's (Tambourine Davis) and she was beaten at a short price. This is a 2 Mile Bumper for Female Horses Only. What I mainly object to about FIDDLING AGAIN is that she is a once raced 4 year old. Generally I have no issue with 4 year olds (although they have a 0-20 record in this particular race) but I do have a Problem when they are Once Raced and when they also come from Juvenile races (3yo only races). There have been 52 Fillies and Mares Bumper races run in February in the Last 15 years. If you look at How "Once raced 4 year old fillies" get on you will find that None have won. In fact ALL 79 That tried got beaten. Thats a very strong statistic. All 79 Horses aged 4 with only 1 previous race lost and that included 11 Beaten Favourites- Beaten Second Favourites and 21 horses that started under 6/1 so it is more than coincidence. Clearly strength and experience matter a lot in female Bumpers. Its irrelevant but once raced 4 year olds score very badly in All Sex Bumper races as well which doesnt make a lot of difference but it at least confirms the stat may be strong. So with what I see as a very strong trend I have to oppose FIDDLING AGAIN. There look to be only 3 sensible alternatives under 25/1. These are SWAYTHE and Alan King's pair THEATRE GIRL and KATESS. I am going with SWAYTHE. The Alan King runners THEATRE GIRL and KATESS are both only 4 year olds and they come from "Juvenile bumpers" and None of the 52 winners of female bumpers in this month came from a juvenile Bumper and I am still concerned about the Alan King Stableform. In the last 2 weeks the stable have not had a winner and have had horses beaten at odds of 9/2 5/1 8/1 5/2 5/6 9/2 4/6 11/2 7/1 3/1 7/4 9/4 9/2 and that included 5 beaten favourites. I think SWAYTHE is interesting. He won an all weather Bumper in November
2005 for his trainer Paul Webber but has been off the track since. He must have had an injury but Webber has recently said that “A spectacular winner on debut in November of 2005, Swaythe has been absent since. Back in full training, Swaythe clearly retains all of her ability and recent work has been encouraging. Hopefully, she is another who can make up for lost time." That suggests SWAYTHE is a big player and she is powerfully owned by a strong syndicate of City Insurers so watch the Market closely with her.

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