Thursday October 18th

No Account Bet

Waiting still for that one decent bet that will restart us again. Stalled a little at the moment in the face of a poor period and lack of choice. Think a lot of the more interesting races today have been priced up accurately and that there is no great edge in many of the handicaps in
Particular. Consequently I cant see anything that strong I would want to nominate today as a best bet or an account bet. Once I mentally decide a days racing is not going to offer me a Strong bet my mind instantly wanders onto tomorrow's cards and thats what I intend to start
looking at now. I have backed SUPPORT FUND in the 4.30 at Brighton. Not totally convinced as she is a 3yo filly but her last 2 runs can be forgotten and there are few in this race that dont have at least one strike against them. I didnt see any reason why SUPPORT FUND wont win this race and at this stage she has been my only bet.

One generous member has offered to sponsor an in house tipping competition at Cheltenham with some small prizes. Free to enter and details on the message board - be a good idea to test your skills against other members for a prize and Many thanks to Jay for organising the event.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G

A Few very brief opinions before I concentrate on the races I have done today. These are just a few comments in races I havent completed but races where one horse does or doesnt stand out .

Nottingham 2.10 - I would not have made Italian Art the selection in any preview
Nottingham 3.40 - Tight race where my vote would have probably gone to Highland Legacy
Nottingham 4.40 - Would not have selected Drawn Gold - Eco Centrism - Kissing - Mythical Story
Brighton 2.30 - I would not have selected Soggy Dollar at a Mile
Brighto 2.30 - The Nursery form of DOCTOR ROBERT stands out and I think we should win this race
Wolverhampton 6.50 - Assuming market support Royal Challenge looks value at 9/1
Wolverhamptom 7.50 - I dont fancy Vanadium -Summer Recluse - Richelieu - Tyrannosaurus Rex -Task Complete

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NOTTINGHAM 3:10 - OVAL HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 6f15y

5/1 Steel Blue, 6/1 Cornus, 8/1 Funfair Wane, Roman Quest, Tamino, 10/1 Scarlet Oak, 12/1 After The Show, 14/1 Lake Chini, Mr Cellophane, 16/1 Metal Guru, Patavium Prince, 20/1 All You Need, Morse, 25/1 Exit Strategy, High Reach, Strathmore

* This is a 6f handicap for horses rated 0-70
* Nottingham have ran 83 similar races all year round
* Nottingham has had 15 similar races in October
* There has been 119 similar races run at other tracks
* FUNFAIR WANE is an 8 year old coming from a 5f race
* In 119 races in October no horse that old managed that (0-77) and he is out
* PATAVIUM PRINCE is unlikely to be fit enough
* SCARLET OAK and METAL GURU are 3 year old fillies
* In 83 Similar Nottingham races 3 year old fillies that came from all aged handicaps were 0-68
* In 119 similar races in October they dont score that well (9-290) and I would rather oppose them
* MR CELLOPHANE is rejected as exposed horses dont cope with long absences in these races
* I dont want STRATHMORE coming from a 5f race as a 3 year old - He is also drawn badly
* High numbers have dominated this race over the years and I see no difference today
* AFTER THE SHOW isnt drawn well - He has just come 3rd from a bad drawn over C+D
* Today AFTER THE SHOW has a worse draw - a bigger field - and softer ground which isnt ideal
* LAKE CHINI wont find it easy to defy stall 3
* RAINBOW BAY - ROMAN QUEST - MORSE all have worrying draws as well
* MORSE has had just 1 race since April and has twice been beaten in this race
* I would keep ROMAN QUEST on the shortlist in stall 5
* He would have been my best bet 3 days ago at Windsor but for the worst draw in the race
* He still ran very well in second place and the fact he ran 3 days ago gives him a fitness edge
* Shouldnt be forgotten that in recent weeks 2 horses (Bobby Rose-Dakota Rain) won from stall 5 in C+D races
* ALL YOU NEED has no soft ground form and is only a small horse
* EXIST STRATEGY and HIGH REACH are not in the best of form and look unreliable
* This should go to a high drawn horse and my shortlist are these
* STEEL BLUE - CORNUS - TAMINO - ROMAN QUEST

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BRIGHTON 3:30 - TACKLE THE RUGBY ODDS - "BETLIVE" @WILLIAMHILL.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-75) 1m3f196y

3/1 Four Miracles, 7/2 Chunky´s Choice, 5/1 Chant De Guerre, Esclarmonde, 8/1 Bienheureux, 10/1 Global Strategy, 12/1 Burgundy, 16/1 Rickety Bridge, 25/1 Matarazzo.

* This is a 0-75 handicap over just short of 12f
* October has seen 140 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more have a 0-90 record in this race and BURGANDY fails that
* Horses absent 4 months or more have a dismal 2-241 record and GLOBAL STRATEGY fails that
* No horses as inexperienced as RICKETY BRIDGE defied such a long absence before
* Couldnt have MATARAZZO out of form and out of the handicap
* ESCLARMONDE drops from a 16f race - Only 3 of the 140 winners did that
* No horses as inexperienced as her did it - and 3 year olds trying it were just 1-49
* Think the market is right and feel 3 horses stand out
* FOUR MIRACLES - CHUNKYS CHOICE - CHANT DE GUERRE

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BRIGHTON 4.30 - "BETLIVE" ON THE GRAND PRIX @WILLIAMHILL.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 6f209y

11/2 Cow Girl, 8/1 Lordship, Rhapsilian, 10/1 Certain Justice, Torquemada, 12/1 Comrade Cotton, Masterofthecourt, Messiah Garvey, Mythical Charm, 16/1 Border Edge, Support Fund, 20/1 Start Of Authority, 33/1 Regal Curtsy.

* This is a 0-70 handicap just short of 7f
* There has been 121 similar races run in October
* I am happy to take on COW GIRL a 3 year old filly coming from a 3yo handicap
* The record of these is average - just 5 from 84 - but none were maidens and none dropped from 10f or more
* RHAPSILIA has a lot to do with the step up from 6f and the fact she has had under 7 runs. Only 1 winner did that
* 3 year olds with long absences are poor like COMRADE COTTON
* Several look unlikely to be fit enough like STAR OF AUTHORITY - REGAL CURTSY -MESSIAH GARVEY
* None of the 121 winners dropped over 3f in trip like BORDER EDGE
* The ground isnt what TORQUEMADA wants
* CERTAIN JUSTICE isnt running well - is dissapointing - and has no track form at all
* MYTHICAL CHARM was well beaten in last years race with much less weight and needs further
* MASTEROFTHECOURT has no soft ground form and also looks to need further
* My shortlist would be these
* SUPPORT FUND - LORDSHIP
* LORDSHIP is shortlisted despite coming from a 3yo handicap
* SUPPORT FUND is interesting after a bad draw last time and being hampered the time before
* She had big problems at Warwick from a bad draw last time
* Before that at Brighton She was badly hampered that killed any chance
* Previously at Chepstow She ran well in second looking like she was capable of winning soon
* No problems with her being a 3yo filly
* Tough race - big field - poor each way terms but SUPPORT FUND is worth a bet at 7/1

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BRIGHTON 5:00 - COME PLAY WITH US @WILLIAMHILLCASINO.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 5f59y

5/1 Make My Dream, 6/1 Royal Guest, Twosheetstothewind, 8/1 Blessed Place, Dancing Mystery, Jayanjay, 10/1 Cerulean Rose, Ishibee, 12/1 Calabaza, Hythe Bay, 16/1 Pamir, 20/1 Stir Crazy.

* This is an all aged handicap for horses rated 0-70
* There has been 144 similar races run in October
* Although TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND is statistically wrong I would make her a saver at least
* TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND fails a couple of trends
* Horses that hadnt run within 7 weeks had a poor record
* When they do this aged 3 they have a miserable 2-108 record
* TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND - HYTHE BAY fail that
* When they come from 5f races they have a misreable 1-129 record
* TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND - HYTHE BAY also fail that
* They are both fillies coming from 3yo handicaps - and no filly did that with an absence as long as theres
* TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND has been pretty unlucky so far and does has ability and I wouldnt underestimate her
* DANCING MYSTERY recently became the first 13 year old to win a 5f handicap
* That was a poor race and he shouldnt be up to winning this race in my view
* PAMIR makes no appeal.Just 3 of the 144 winners had under 4 runs that season
*JAYANJAY loves this track but its been a long time since he won or placed at 5f
* His form a year ago makes him look thrown in but whether he'd be better at 6f now is a possibility
* The fact he wasnt outpaced here over 5f recently makes me think he can still win a race of this class at 5f
* I personally dont think ROYAL GUEST CALABAZAor STIR CRAZY will have the class
* ISHIBEE has problems back at this trip
* MAKE MY DREAM is a maiden that hasnt won a race in 22 attempts.
* I looked at the 144 similar handicaps for horses that won races having been a maiden after 20 runs
* Only 1 managed it from 32 that tried and I would rather not bet a horse with his profile
* BLESSED PLACE has a small chance if on a going day
* For a selection Iwould look at JAYANJAY 8/1 But save on TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND

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Nottingham 5:10 COLWICK PARK HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 5f13y

11/2 Overwing, 8/1 Mr Rooney, 10/1 Morristown Music, 11/1 Paddywack, 12/1 Brandywell Boy, El Potro, Green Lagonda, Jucebabe, Niteowl Lad, Polar Force, 14/1 Briery Lane, Miacarla, Monashee Brave, Puskas, 20/1 Billy Red, Bungie.

* This is a 5f handicap for horses rated 0-65
* There has been 76 of these races in October
* BUNGIE doesnt look fit enough with 1 run this year and no 3yo defied that absence
* BILLY RED is a 3 year old absent 47 days and no 3 year old defied that absence
* He is alsom unproven on the ground - concedes weight to older horses - yet has never faced any before
* I dont like Older horses with absences and no horse aged 5 or more managed to do it in the 76 races
* Horses aged 5 and over that hadnt ran in 7 weeks had a 0-51 record
* GREEN LAGONDA - EL PORTO - POLAR FORCE all fail that statistic
* Older horses need opposing with absences and the record in September (1-61 and none since 1992) backs it
* I will oppose PADDYWACK a 10 year old absent 3 weeks with a 7lbs jockey
* Between August and November there has been 436 similar races- Horses aged 9 or more won 17
* What the trends show is that horses aged 9 or more are significantly better when racing very quickly again
* Horses aged 9 or more that ran within 15 days (15-73) are easily better than those who didnt (2-110)
* As PADDYWACK lacks a very recent run and has a claimer on board he wouldnt interest me today
* That would be the end of any statistical negatives in this race
* MORRISTOWN MUSIC is a filly coming from a 3yo handicap and surprisingly they score reasonably well (4-49)
* As MORRISTOWN MUSIC loves the ground and could have a good draw she has to be considered
* JUCEBABE and MIACARLA have no statistical reason why they cant win but I dont want either
* BRANDYWELL BOY wont want the ground this soft
* PUSKAS hasnt proven he is in form and hasnt been for a while
* BRIERLY LANE has a small chance but the stables horses are running very poorly
* MR ROONEY has a great chance of stall 5 doesnt hurt him
* NITEOWL LAD is also respected
* OVERWING has the form - the class - and plenty of money behind her
* The main concern with OVERWING is that she may be Marooned in stall 1
* Thats not certain to be the case and several low drawn horses have won Nottingham 5f races this year
* Unless the soft ground changes the draw bias OVERWING would be the most interesting runner

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