No Account Bet

It would be quite nice to start the opening paragraph of a message without a Moan but I can not do that today. The
inspections farce at all 3 meetings which have involved multiple inspections half way through the day has been a major problem in providing a quality E Mail and has not left me any time to consider an account bet. I didn't not have much I liked at Huntingdon at all. In the end I have looked at one race at Lingfield and 2 races at Catterick but I have not had the time or confidence in the inspections to commit to one race and find a strong bet. If I had committed properly to just one race and the meeting had fallen then you would not have had a message. I like the 3m 6f race at Catterick. I think the long distance Novice Hurdle at Catterick has a decent bet in it and I had to bet in the opener at Lingfield as well. I have only had the chance to look at 3 races today. Anyone wanting any other views just Post. My "Most likely" winner today from the 3 races I have looked at has to be ICE TEA (3.10) but I am also sweet on Blue Manruna at 7/1 in the first at Lingfield.

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TODAY'S RACING


LINGFIELD 12.50 - Pontins.com Maiden Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m4f

100/30 Barton Belle, 7/2 Smart Cat, Sunset Boulevard, 5/1 Moon Empress, 6/1 Blu Manruna, 12/1 Nona, 16/1 Tres Bien, 25/1 Remis Velisque, 50/1 Moving Target, Mustard Benn, War Feather.

SELECTION - BLU MANRUNA 7/1

This is a 12f Maiden race for older horses. What I think, or at least Hope may be significant in this race is the poor record of Fillies. Since 1990 there have been 41 Maiden Races at Lingfield over 12 furlongs during the All Weather Season. The record of fillies in the last 17 years has been just 1 winner from 130 runners. That 1-130 record looks desperately poor to me. It included 9 beaten favourites. It included 17 horses that started under 4/1. Its quite clear that record of Fillies in 12f Maiden races at Lingfield is pretty desperate and you have to fancy Male Horses.

BARTON BELLE 4/1 is a Female horse. She is certainly an unusual one. It may be dangerous to apply the sex stat to her as she is a 5 year old Mare than had been running in Bumpers for Alan Swinbank. She had an excellent W 2 3 W record in 4 Bumper races last year. She was then dropped in trip and sent flat racing to a pretty awful Redcar maiden where she came 4th. That was last June and we have not seen her since. Aside from the "female" angle I would be concerned that Alan Swinbank sold her for 28 grand. Why did he let her go ? I Would have thought that if she had any scope or had a future he would have kept her. I would also be worried that she hasn’t ran since June. Look at All 12f Maidens at Lingfield that have been run before. There have been 82 of these and the record of female horses that were having their seasonal debuts were just 1-107. I think she has a lot against her today and Chris Kellets record in all aged maidens is 0-61

SMART CAT 7/2 is an Alan Jarvis Filly. I find it very hard to fancy her bearing in mind the poor record of female horses in this race. It is also hard to fancy her on her sole run last September when down the field in a Pontefract maiden . Having just 1 previous race is another big problem for me. There is also no help at all from the trainers record to suggest she may win this. Alan Jarvis has a poor record in maiden races with his runners with only one previous race. Only 2 scored from 65 that tried and all 10 he ran in the All weather season lost. Its worse than that though. Alan Jarvis has NEVER had a winner of a maiden at 10f or more with a once raced horse and if you look at all his maiden runners at 11f or more the record of his runners with under 3 previous races is 0-40. Hard to build any case for her.

MOON EMPRESS 15/8 is another female horse and the female horse "Most Likely" to bust the statistic that shows female horses struggle. She got herself handicapped with 3 runs. She was Hammered in a 12f handicap on her 4th start but that was to be expected. She then ran a reasonably good 3rd at Lingfield 3 weeks ago. That run gives her a big chance today . She was behind 62 and 64 rated horses last time out yet beat 72 and 68 rated horses and the general standard of that form should ensure she places at least. However it is a concern that she is a female as is the fact she is now a 15/8 chance when priced up at 4/1 in the Paper. I can understand why people have made her favourite and punted her heavily on her last run but its an overreaction to make her that short .

BLU MANRUNA 6/1 is a Male horse. He has had 25 runs. You could argue he was thoroughly exposed with so many runs and that is a worry but from all Lingfield 12f maidens at this time of year if you look at the record of horses that had over 21 previous races its actually very good with 3 winners from just 7 runners. I think this step up to 12f has to help. His Sire (Zaha) whilst hardly a strong sire has a very good record at this trip and its well worth a try . He is clearly no great shakes but none of these are good horses wither and he has placed in many handicaps and he is fit and his experience can not hurt him. Big Chance.

SUNSET BOULEVARD 7/2 is at least a Male horse. He had 3 runs for Jeremy Noseda before he was was sold for £18,500 and is now with Miss Tor Sturgis. He wont be much good or Noseda would have kept him in the yard but he is at least Male and has racked up some experience.

CONCLUSION

I have to go for a Male horse in light of the trends in this race and in light of the Foul weather.

BLUE MANRUNA makes plenty of appeal to me at 7/1.

He is no certainty but I have had some 7/1 and on profiling he comes out very well.

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CATTERICK 2.40 - 13/2 Theatre Knight, 7/1 It´s Definite, 8/1 Bellaney Jewel, Classic Capers, Devil´s Run, Like A Bee, 9/1 Bang And Blame, 10/1 Supreme´s Legacy, 11/1 Prince Of Slane, Supreme Breeze, Victory Gunner, 12/1 Profowens, 14/1 Aegean, 20/1 Heroes Collonges.

SELECTION - SUPREME'S LEGACY 7/1

I want to Oppose CLASSIC CAPERS with 11st 12lbs. If he were to win he would be the biggest weight carrier in this race ever. The Record of horses in this race carrying 11st 7lbs and Over is poor and reads L L L F W UR 4 L L 4 but that doesn't tell the full picture. Although the 1997 winner carried 11st 8lbs that year was a tiny field and the majority of horses carried very high weights and the only lightweight was a 9/1 chance that came runner up. Taking the renewals since 1994 that had 11st 7lbs or more and you have horses unplaced at 13/8 9/4 6/1 13/2 7/4 7/1 6/5 9/2 and 3/1 and that's a very short group of prices and that's why I want to Oppose CLASSIC CAPERS and I also note his sire has not had a soft ground winner beyond 3m 3f yet. I don't like DEVILS RUN another High Weight. PRINCE OF SLANE won this race last year but he carried 9st 13lbs then and was on the upgrade. He now has 11st 4lbs and is out of form. I am going to oppose THEATRE KNIGHT the favourite. He is not out of this but he is quite a short price at 5/1 over such a long distance when he has to defy a longer absence than every other horse in the race having been off 66 days. He also ran at Under 2m 6f last time out. No Horse has won a race like this at this time of year stepping up so radically in trip. I just think he has enough Flaws at the price to oppose him. I want to Oppose ITS DEFINATE 10/1. He has been well handicapped all year but dogged by Jumping problems. He finally got in right last time out winning well. He beat a 0-86 field though. This is a 0-125 field. He has been raised 9lbs as well and stepped up 3 furlongs in trip. Thats going to be hard as his sire has not had a winner at this trip yet and this track will expose any mistakes he makes. I don't want SUPREME BREEZE . We haven't had an 12 year old winner of this race yet, He is a Tiny Horse and I don't want a 7lbs claimer riding my horse over 3m 6f. I respect BANG AND BLAME but he flopped in this race last year and carries a lot more weight in todays race. AEGEAN looks too old. You could not bet PROFOWENS on his recent form. I cant see VICTORY GUNNER conceding weight to several lightweights. This is Very Much a Lightweights race. To illustrate the advantage a light weight has , the record of horses carrying Bottom weight of 10st or less have won 5 of the 9 renewals. Its actually better than that as they also had the 2nd and 3rd in one year and didn't have a runner in another renewal. Bottomweights excel . This for me is between 3 runners

LIKE A BEE 11/1
BELLANEY JEWEL 7/1
SUPREME'S LEGACY 7/1

LIKE A BEE has a sound chance and has no obvious statistical flaws but he has not done enough for me yet since coming over from Ireland and I think there is a race at Cheltenham this horse may be saved for. BELLANEY JEWELL will love conditions. She is the perfect age and has a lovely light weight. My problem with her is that she has raced just once since last May and I want a horse with a fitter profile. SUPREME'S LEGACY has been the "Money horse" being well backed in the offices and I Think he deserved the chance to show he is very well handicapped. Although he lacks handicap form and comes from a Novice Chase many horses have successfully managed that at this time of year. He could be well handicapped having had only 3 races over fences so far. Rated 121 over Hurdles he is racing from just a mark of 112 today and he should have something in hand of the handicaper.

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CATTERICK 3.10 - 5/2 Dancer´s Serenade, 3/1 Ice Tea, 4/1 Wee Forbees, 8/1 In Dream´s, 9/1 Tom´s Toybox, Tomillielou, 12/1 Double Deputy, 16/1 Golden Streak, 33/1 Sharkeys Dream, Willie The Fish, 66/1 Golden Crest, 100/1 Lesley Cottage, Luvinyou, Northern Stars, 200/1 Bainy.

SELECTION - ICE TEA


I think ICE TEA will win. I wont have time for a Long preview. In this Catterick Long Distance Novice Hurdle horses that had less than 4 runs had a 1-83 record which firmly puts the ball in ICE TEA's court rather than the once raced favourite DANCERS SERENADE. There have been other tracks where once raced horses have won so I wouldn't be criticising the chance of DANCERS SERENADE too strongly but I do prefer ICE TEA. With "Handicappers" like Double Deputy not scoring well and trip jumpers like Tomillielou scoring poorly I thought ICE TEA was the safest bet.

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