No Account Bet

Two races Discussed today and 2 selections

Leicester 2.20 - LAW OF THE LAND 16/1

Redcar 2.40 - GREEK SECRET 7/1

I am betting both horses. The issue is how strong both are and whether they are good enough for Account bets. Truth is I dont really know. I think Law Of The Land is a very big price but he is not certain to run very well and its a huge field and I suspect he ought to just be below account bet grade. Just a small win bet for me but at 16/1 thats all you need.

GREEK SECRET has everthing needed to win this race. Well worth a bet but I am mindful that its a horrible each way race with 15 runners and there may be "Draw" factors I can not predict and it is pretty fast out there. Despite a loser yesterday we are at the end of a very good week and I dont really want to take the shine off that in low class
big field races on a sunday. GREEK SECRET is my "Best bet" of the day and Law of the Land my only other personal bet.

**********************************************
**********************************************

TODAY'S RACING

I wont review Saturday's Message in Today's E Mail. I posted on a couple of Threads last night on the message board thoughts about a few things including yesterdays
bets and message so I wont repeat myself and Bore you. If you want to read it then it's on the message Board.

Super Sunday. Or at least I hope it is. You look at the Accumalator of Manduro (France) and Henrythenavigator (Ireland) Tiger Woods - Cheslea -Arsenal -Manchester United and you would not want to lay that at 11/2. One will probably come unstuck though. Thats not our brief though. Game plan is to find better odds. Keeping it Tight today. Just a couple of races that I feel are well worth looking at. Going to try and get a big priced winner from 2 bets.

LEICESTER 2:20 - RUTLAND SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-4yo) 7f9y

3/1 Finsbury, 7/2 Strike Force, 11/2 Kassuta, 8/1 Calloff The Search, 12/1 Fine Art World, 14/1 Al Rayanah, Endless Night, 16/1 Firebird Annie, Fun In The Sun, 20/1 Law Of The Land, Night Rainbow, 25/1 Kings Shillings, Mine The Balance, Strife, 33/1 Buckle And Hyde, Halfwaytoparadise, 50/1 Ancient Site, Cadi May.

* Leicester has 8 renewals of this race
* There are 21 similar races run in August
* There are 245 similar races run all year round
* This selling race fascinates me.
* I have big problems with many runners
* LAW OF THE LAND may just be a very interesting Bet here

Experience is crucial. When you consider there has been 245 similar races and only 2 managed under 4 runs
then you can really see just what it takes to win these races. Fitness is a massive factor as well. You want a
horse thats Conditioned to the distance. You have to have the right type of Filllies or the right type of 3 year
old. Jockeyship matters as well. Preparation is important. This is How I see this race.

* 245 similar races run during the Flat Season
* Horses aged 3 that have under 4 career starts have a 0-151 record
* This strongly suggests they wont be winning this
* FINE ART WORLD with just one previous race is a confident negative
* In this Leicester race horses that had under 13 career starts had a 1-60 record
* ANCIENT SITE is a 3 year old with 5 runs up in trip and he surely cant win
* CADI MAY wont be winning surely as a 3yo filly with 7 runs
* I have big problems with FIREBIRD ANNIE
* She is a filly with a 45 day absence
* Horses in this Leicester race with a Months absence are 0-24
* Horses in any Selling race over 7f in August with 31 +days absence are 1-62
* You clearly dont want long absences but FIREBIRD ANNIE drops from 10 furlongs
* Take the 245 selling races at any time of year Fillies dropping from 9f or more are 0-146
* FIREBIRD ANNIE is trying to do something No filly has done before
* This Leicester race always went to horses with at least 4 runs this season
* From the 21 selling races in August 20 of these went to horses that raced within 31 days
* BUCKLE AND HYDE and ENDLESS NIGHT are surely not going to be fit enough
* Both have one run this season and absences of 102 and 186 days
* No selling winner in June July or August had just one run that season
* None of the 245 winners had 1 run that year and such an absence before
* NIGHT RAINBOW surely cant defy a 346 day absence
* There has been 93 of these selling races between June and December
* Thats 7 months and NONE of the 93 winners were absent 4 months or more
* I have to oppose the horses coming from 5f races
* Its a really tall order for a bad horse to do that.
* There has been 116 selling races at 7f on Turf at any time of year since 1991
* NONE of the 116 winners came from a 5f race. All 84 that tried Lost.
* This takes out MINE THE BALANCE
* Horss that come from 6f races struggle as well
* All 31 that tried it in the 8 Leicester renewals of this race lost
* Only 1 horse managed it in the 21 other races at this time of year
* HALFWAYTOPARADISE fails that trend
* STRIKE FORCE has a reasonable chance but he is a 3yo coming from 6f
* In 116 similar races on Grass only 4 of the 116 winners were 3 year olds up from 6f
* Only 1 of these were male horses and just one as exposed as he is
* CALL OFF THE SEARCH is also a 3yo coming from a 6f race
* If you take the 245 selling races and look at 3 year olds that come from an all aged handicap
* You find that just 1 of the 245 winners did that - in a weak 1-82 record
* Thats another angle STRIKE FORCE fails
* FUN IN THE SUN also fails that
* AL RAYANAH is a 4yo filly and they dont score well
* Her jockey also has a poor record so far as do all 7lbs claimers in these races
* Older horses like STRIFE with under 4 runs that season have a 2% strike rate
* KASSUTA has a chance but is a 3yo filly and lightly raced
* She has just been claimed cheaply and runs for a new stable which is a concern
* FINSBURY has a fair chance but she has been absent over 6 weeks
* In 21 similar races in August horses absent 6 weeks or more had a 1-61 record
* KINGS SHILLINGS is out of form and has a tough task at the weights
* I like LAW OF THE LAND 20/1
* He may well be very well drawn
* He comes out well at the weights
* He has the experience and fitness
* He has a good pilot
* He has a recent run
* Comes from a claiming race like 5 of the last 6 winners
* He is no certainty but I feel he has a lot in his favour.

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 2.40 - MICHAEL POOLE ESTATE AGENTS HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-60) 6f

3/1 Littledodayno, 7/1 Royal Composer, 15/2 Greek Secret, 8/1 Inca Soldier, Maison Dieu, 9/1 La Vecchia Scuola, 10/1 Compton Plume, 12/1 Bold Haze, 14/1 Wiltshire, Zap Attack, 16/1 Never Without Me, 20/1 Spirit Of Coniston, 25/1 Muara, 33/1 Goldan Jess, Nufoudh.

* This is a 0-60 handicap over 6 furlongs
* Redcar has ran this race 14 times before
* You can get a sense of whats been winning by the following trends
* Horses with under 13 runs had a 0-47 record in 14 renewals
* Horses with under 6 runs that season had a 0-75 record
* Horses aged 3 had a 0-41 record
* Males dominated leading 12 races to 2
* 10 of the 14 winners - and the last 4 winners - ran within 15 days
* Fillies aged 3 or 4 had a 0-51 record
* You can see a Fit experienced older Male with a recent run dominates
* There have been 148 identical races at other tracks as a back up statistically
* I Cant have ROYAL COMPOSER with 75 days break and 2 runs this year
* He would be the least experienced winner of this race
* In the 148 similar races not one had 1 or 2 runs that year and 7 +weeks absence
* GOLDAN JESS fails that and other angles
* I cant have LE VECCHIA SCULOA as an exposed 3 year old filly
* In 148 similar races 3 year old fillies with 13 or more runs had a 0-76 record
* ZAP ATTACK looks unlikely to repeat his fluke win last week
* Favourite LITTLEDODAYNO is from a shrewd gambling stable
* Many observers have said he is a "Job horse" that hasnt always done his best
* She may quite easily win when well backed
* Equally she was a beaten favourite last time and she is no certainty to win this
* She is a 4 year old filly and fillies under 5 in this race have a 0-51 record
* She is respected but she isnt that good and we shouldnt over-worry about her
* BOLD HAZE can't be totally ruled out but may find the ground too quick
* MUARA isnt running well enough to win I dont feel
* Its such a bad race that any from several could pop up on some old form
* I Like GREEK SECRET in this for several reasons
* He moved from Tim Easterby in August 2006 when rated 80
* He went to Jimmy O Reilly - and had just one "Place" in 10 runs
* During that time his rating dropped from 80 to 53
* Then last time out he won nicely at Thirsk
* He is still very well handicapped after that win
* I like the fact that his win last week came in the Ladies race at Thirsk
* That could well be a significant trial race for this
* The 2006 winner came 2nd in the Ladies race at Thirsk before winning this
* The 2005 winner came 2nd in the Ladies race at Thirsk before winning this
* The 2004 winners came 3rd in the Ladies race at Thirsk before winning this
* The 2003 runner up Won the Ladies race at Thirsk before beaten a short head in this
* The last 3 winners and a second (beaten a short head) the year before came from this race
* GREEK SECRET fits all the criteria of past winners
* I was initially a bit worried about Firm ground
* However he has just won on ground described as "very firm"
* The Draw in stall 2 may or may not be a negative factor
* No certainty that it wont be a Good draw though and he has so much else in his favour
* GREEK SECRET looks good value to me at 7/1 to win again.

**********************************************
**********************************************