Tuesday November 20th

No Account Bet

There is an 8 race Card at Wolverhampton. I have looked at every race. Quite Happy with the message but I dont see a single selection that I would want to suggest you have a decent bet on so I will leave it today as a Blank Day. Tuesday's often throw up trappy poor cards and I think we've done the best with what was available today but
there is no hurry and pointless trying to pick a bet out when one isnt obvious. I will return to the Jumps tomorrow but I did not like anything there today.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G

No Joy with yesterdays Best Bet at Leicester. We are facing two disciplines at the moment with the Jumps
and the All Weather. I am doing Less races over the Jumps at the moment. Since the season started the record
in these Jumps races isnt Bad. We have had some Best Bets of the day win. There is a profit overall and we are
holding out own on the Jumps from only a few races notwithstanding yesterdays loss - but there has yet to be
anything outstanding yet from that discipline and I am comfortable there at the moment as long as I can pick and
choose the right races.

The All Weather has been busier. I am very comfortable on the sand at the Moment. Not all races are easy but I
think I am doing some good shortlists and reviews. Possibly Playing it a little too safe at the Moment but I feel Ok with the Sand - Feel I am opening races up quite well - Feel the Negatives are working well and not winning
which is always a good sign and I think were doing well on the sand. We wont get every race right but overall I
am not unhappy with how things have gone and it may soon be time to press on with some bets.

I am going to leave the National Hunt alone today. Heavy Rain and small fields offer two unnatractive cards and
I dont see a race I want to play in today. Staying with the card at Wolverhampton .



WOLVERHAMPTON 1:20 - WOLVERHAMPTON-RACECOURSE.CO.UK CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo) 7f32y

8/11 Rich Kid, 4/1 Berrynarbor, 7/1 Dusk Ballet, 10/1 Kamal, 16/1 Scientific, 25/1 Don Picolo, Riki Wiki Wheels, 50/1 Make A Bid.

* This is a 7f claimer for 2 year olds
* Wolverhampton has not had any similar races at this time of year
* Therefore any angles are tough to develop and its a weak trends race
* There has been 24 similar races on sand at other tracks at this time of year
* If those 24 races can be examined and applied here I feel RICH KID comes out best
* In the 24 races horses with under 3 runs had a weak 1-56 record
* KAMAL - RIKI WIKI WHEELS - MALE A BIDLESS fail that
* KAMAL has a massive absence and no horse has ever won a 7f claimer anywhere with that absence
* Horses with under 3 runs like him havent won one with 3 months absence before never mind 4 months
* If you look at Fillies that are lightly raced the record is worrying
* Fillies that had under 7 career starts had a 0-84 record
* That included 5 beaten favourites and 20 horses under 10/1
* BERRYNARBOUR (3 runs) MAKE A BID (1 run) DUSK BALLET (4 runs) all fail that statistic
* If you look at all 7f Claimers on any track between October and November since 1991 thats significant
* There has been 36 of these races - Fillies with under 5 runs had a poor 2-153 record
* Both winners came at Redcar in October
* Couldnt have DON PICOLO coming down 3f in distance
* With the trends persuading me away from lightly raced fillies it looks like only 2 pass all tests
* These are RICH KID who on form looks a different class to SCIENTIFIC
* I think I would have to consider only RICH KID and SCIENTIFIC as statistically acceptable
* RICH KID has to be the selection - and possibly SCIENTIFIC Might run on for the forecast

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WOLVERHAMPTON 1:50 - PONTIN'S BOOK EARLY PRICE PROMISE NURSERY (CLASS 6) (2yo,0-60) 5f216y

3/1 Caprio, 4/1 Yankee Storm, 7/1 Curio, 10/1 Alabama Spirit, Hawa Khana, Talamahana, 12/1 Prunes, 14/1 Echostar, John Potts, No Point, 20/1 Feeling Fresh, Sir Joey, 33/1 Ocean Glory.

* This is a Nursery just short of 6 furlongs
* There has only been 17 of these races at Wolves at this time of year
* There has been 60 similar races at other sand tracks
* A Little bit wary as 17 races isnt really a strong sample size
* Horses that come from 5f races have a pretty poor 1-49 record in the 17 races
* Normally thats a definate reason to oppose these types but there are so many of them
* CAPRIO - YANKEE STORM - CURIO - NO POINT -ECHOSTAR- FEELING FRESH- SIR JOEY all come from 5f
* This includes the 3 shortest priced runners so care is needed to recheck things
* There are different types of horses that come from 5f - Some acceptable and others Not
* I want to take on the fillies that come from 5f
* Fillies that come from a 5f race are 0-25 in the 17 Wolverhampton races
* I looked at 60 similar races at other All Weather tracks
* If you look at Fillies coming from 5f races they had a poor 3-81 record - but since 1998 that was a 0-61 record
* I shall oppose the Fillies in this race that come from 5f races
* CURIO - NO POINT - ECHOSTAR have that against them and are rejected
* Fillies that came from Handicaps are potentially weak when having under 5 races
* HAWA KHANA fails that and she also has topweight and I am against her
* I dont want fillies having an absence. In 17 Wolverhampton races fillies absent 16 + days were 1-58
* I looked at all other sand tracks for fillies absent over a Month
* There were a few but none as exposed as ALABAMA SPIRIT and none had her weight
* I am going to ignore the claims of ALABAMA SPIRIT Despite a big gamble from 8/1 to 4/1
* I dont want the Badly Drawn SIR JOEY and Stall 13 might also hurt the favourite CAPRIO
* CAPRIO is opposed for only circumstantial reasons
* Firstly his draw isnt great - secondly his trainer record is only average in Nurseries like this
* Finally CAPRIO's chance statistically is Mundane - He would be on a shortlist but isnt that attractive
* None of the 17 Wolverhampton winners came from 8f trips
* There were only a couple that won at the other sand tracks but years ago and they were different types
* Therefore I will oppose horses coming from 8f like OCEAN GLORY and TALAMAHANA
* There is nothing statistically wrong with JOHN POTTS or PRUNES
* If either win I will feel I have done Ok here but neither are horses you stongly fancy on what they have done
* PRUNES is a filly from a poor stable that has a bad draw to overcome
* JOHN POTTS has weak maiden form behind low rated horses
* I still feel JOHN POTTS is the potential surprise package in the race
* I think my most likely winner has to be YANKEE STORM
* Comes from 5f and I dont like that - but he is the "Right sort" that comes from 5f
* Like the Draw - Like the Stable being in Form - Like the fact He is also a colt
* Like the fact he was given an easy race last time once beaten having been outpaced
* YANKEE STORM is the selection and I give him a very good chance of winning

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WOLVERHAMPTON 2:20 - PONTIN'S BOOK EARLY AND SAVE SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m141y

4/1 El Coto, 9/2 Shifty, 7/1 Middleton Grey, Wahoo Sam, 8/1 Circus Polka, 10/1 Dance Spirit, Local Poet, 12/1 Climate, 14/1 Namibian Pink, Swiper Hill, 16/1 Moonstreaker, 33/1 Shannon Arms, 50/1 Blythe Spirit.

* This is a selling race over an extended Mile
* Wolverhampton has had only 18 of these races at this time of year
* This is a Poor trends race with so few similar races run
* The market also shows this as Wide Open
* There has hardly been a brass farthing to any of these in the early markets
* All 18 winners had at least 7 career starts so inexperience may be an issue
* CIRCUS POLKA - NAMIBIAN PINK have both had under 7 career starts
* I couldnt have NAMIBIAN PINK as the only filly anyway
* Horses with under 6 runs this season havent done well
* Horses aged 3 that had under 6 runs this season had a 0-24 record
* CIRCUS POLKA - NAMIBIAN PINK fail that as well
* No older horse like MIDDLETON GREY managed it either
* BLYTHE SPIRIT comes out as easily the worst horse at the weights
* No horse defed the absence SHANNON ARMS faces
* I dont want LOCAL POET with a weak draw and an older horse with an absence
* Dont think WAHOO SAM will defy a wide draw in a big field but no statistical opposition to him
* I will take CLIMATE ON as he comes out as "only 11th best at the weights"
* I dont fancy SHIFTY with just 1 run since April
* In a hard race I will offer a shortlist of 4 horses
* These are 4 horses that I have nothing against statistically
* DANCE SPIRIT - MOONSTREAKER - SWIPER HILL - EL COTO

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WOLVERHAMPTON 2:50 - GO PONTIN'S HOLIDAYS HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 1m4f50y

7/2 Master At Arms, 4/1 Little Richard, 6/1 Mango Masher, Opera Writer, Scutch Mill, 8/1 Compton Dragon, Wulimaster, 12/1 Market Watcher, 16/1 Punta Galera, 33/1 Mysterious World

* This is a 12f handicap for horses rated 0-65
* Wolverhampton has had 52 of these races at this time of year
* There has been 119 similar races on Sand at other tracks in November and December
* MYSTERIOUS WORLD and PUNTA GALERA look unfit
* I would question whether OPERA WRITER is ready with 1 run since Febuary
* MARKET WATCHER is rejected after a weak run yesterday
* I am opposing the 8 year old LITTLE RICHARD absent 3 weeks
* In 119 similar races - The only horses aged 8 or more that won ran within 2 weeks
* Those that did not had a 0-64 record
* WULIMASTER doesnt have strong statistical reasons why he cant win
* I would be worried he is the one of the only horses that steps up in trip today
* He is also a maiden after 18 starts
* LITTLE RICHARD and COMPTON DRAGON are drawn 11 and 10
* There has been 42 handicaps in 2007 at Wolverhampton at this tripso far
* Horses Drawn 10 or higher had a 0-60 record - May not be totaly significant but a worry
* As LITTLE RICHARD fails other stats and COMPTON DRAGON is an 8 year old I oppose them
* I have a shortlist of 3 horses I dont have much against
* Master At Arms - Mango Masher - Scutch Mill
* MASTER AT ARMS has twice run well recently when hardly lucky in both races
* MASTER AT ARMS would be my selection in the race

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3:20 - EUROPEAN BREEDERS' FUND MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) 7f32y

9/4 The Gatekeeper, 7/2 Penchesco, Safebreaker, 6/1 Great Charm, Chesterton, 16/1 Gaitskell, 50/1 Transcendent.

* This is a 7f Maiden for 2 year olds
* Wolverhampton has had 40 of these races at this time of year
* Not many strong angles at all
* None of the 40 winners dropped from 9f like GAITSKELL or TRANSCENDENT
* Horses that came from 8f or more didnt do well
* When they had under 3 career starts and dropped from 8f or more they had a 0-48 record
* GREAT CHARM fails that and he could also be going down the Handicap route
* CHESTERTON is 10/1 and an unraced Irish horse
* Impossible to judge - I will take him on and there is nothing you can do if he wins
* You look to have 3 choices here
* The Gatekeeper- Penchesco - Safebreaker
* I shall try and get THE GATEKEEPER beaten - which wont be easy
* First of all THE GATEKEEPER's dam has Foaled 10 horses
* Between them they have a weak combined record of 1 winner from 78 runners
* THE GATEKEEPER is also the only horse stepping up from 6f
* Horses that had 2 runs - and that come from 6f had a weak 1-36 record in the 40 races
* Horses that came from 6f having been 2nd 3rd 4th or 5th in that race had a 0-34 record
* Thats not impressive for saying 4 were beaten favourites and 12 started under 4/1
* PENCHESCO looks too have a solid chance and I like him
* SAFEBREAKER Has been well backed after a good run here last time
* Should you listed in Trainer stats and how much weight do you give them
* On his last run SAFEBREAKER has every chance but his trainers record is awful
* Not so much the fact Nigel Tinkler is 0-77 with all his runners since July
* His record in 2yo maidens is awful
* When they have 3 or more runs as SAFEBREAKER has they have a 1-116 record since 1987
* SAFEBREAKER has not ran in 33 days and trainer stats suggest that may be an issue
* Tinkler has never won a 2yo maiden with a horse absent over a Month
* Tinklers record in 2yo maidens that didnt run within 2 weeks is just 1-203 since 1987 - an Awful record
* Add to that he is 0-67 with 2yo maidens between October and December
* His is just 1-85 in all 2yo maidens at 7f or more
* He has never had one win on the All Weather at any time of year
* If Trainer stats Matter then SAFEBREAKER has to be opposed
* I am not saying they do matter though and certainly not as much as people think
* That said - What other way is there to split a couple of these
* PENCHESCO is my choice - 4/1 Seems reasonable

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3:50 - GO PONTIN'S SHORT BREAKS HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 1m141y

13/8 Hoh Wotanite, 2/1 Prince Noel, 9/2 Jilly Why, 7/1 Granakey, 12/1 Hill Of Lujain, 25/1 Star Of The Desert.

* This is an all aged handicap over an extended 8f
* Wolverhampton has had 138 similar races at this time of year
* I dont like the trends in these Particular races
* HILL OF LUJAIN has a weak profile with 2 runs this year and a 149 day absence
* He also as to come from a 6f race - a bad sign
* Only 3 of the 138 winners came from a 6f race although just 45 tried
* JILLY WHY also comes from a 6f race but is more exposed than any that overcame it
* She is also older than any horse that has so far managed to come from a 6f race
* I would be against GRANAKEY as a filly with 1 run since March
* With both being in form and with a recent race I wouldnt want to look past the market leaders
* I think HOH WOTANITE and PRINCE NOEL have the strongest profile
* Hard to pick between them to be honest
* HOH WOTANITE won a better race recently than PRINCE NOEL did
* He also did it more easily with and with more weight last time
* The runner up (My Michelle) came out and won yesterday
* Downside is that he gives weight to Prince Noel
* Force me to pick and I would side with HOH WOTANITE
* The Post talk about the possible lack of pace - Thats an unpredictable issue
* One of several reasons why stakes shouldnt be high but HOH WOTANITE for me

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4:20 - BOOK A CHRISTMAS BREAK AT PONTIN'S HANDICAP (DIV I) (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-52) 5f216y

4/1 Two Acres, 5/1 The Salwick Flyer, 6/1 Monda, 13/2 Jojesse, 8/1 The Cube, 9/1 Mister Always, 10/1 Spy Gun, 12/1 Grand Palace, 14/1 Fast Freddie, 20/1 Diamond Hurricane, Fern House, Ocean Gift, 33/1 Detonate.

* This is an all aged handicap just short of 6f
* Wolverhampton has had 49 similar races at this time of year
* Just a few Horses I couldnt really bet
* I dont want FAST FREDDIE with his absence
* Both JOJESSE and MISTER ALWAYS have absences and come from a 5f race
* Both these things are hard to overcome and doubly hard when together
* JOJESSE also comes from a 3yo handicap and horses doing that are 1-34
* I am against MONDA as the only female in the race
* Only 1 older Mare managed to win any of the 49 races
* All female horses that had under 8st 11lbs in these 49 races had a 0-103 record
* I would be against SPY GUN as a 7 year old (2-72)
* I would be against THE CUBE as a lightly raced 3 year old up from 5f
* Older runners beaten over 10 lengths last time score badly (1-59)
* OCEAN GIFT - MONDA - FERN HOUSE fail that
* My shortlist would be these
* TWO ACRES - THE SALWICK FLYER - GRAND PALACE

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4:50- BOOK A CHRISTMAS BREAK AT PONTIN'S HANDICAP (DIV II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-52) 5f216y

7/2 Duke Of Milan, 5/1 Briery Blaze, 7/1 The Carpet Man, 8/1 Snow Bunting, 10/1 Dysonic, Midmaar, 12/1 Bond Becks, Mind Alert, Wodhill Be, 14/1 Splendidio, 16/1 Gone´N´Dunnett, 20/1 Canina, 25/1 Bonnet O´Bonnie.

* This is an all aged handicap just short of 6f
* Its the second division of the 4.20 race
* Wolverhampton has had 49 similar races at this time of year
* Older horses beaten over 10 lengths last time like BOND BECKS score badly
* BOND BECKS also has a 70 day absence and thats bad news for a 7 year old
* None of the 49 races went to horses aged 6 that were absent over a Month
* WODHILL BE - BOND BECKS - MIDMAAR all fail that stat handsomely
* MIDMAAR complicates things as he has been Gambled from M Wigham's stable
* M Wigham must always be respected with gambles like this and he is a potential stat buster
* MIDMAAR has also won fresh before so he cant really be ruled out with any significance
* The 9 year old SNOW BUNTING is out - No horse that age won any of the 49 races
* Wolverhampton have ran 189 races like this at anytime of year are horses aged 9 + are just 1-84
* Fillies like SPLENDIDIO that come from 5f races struggled (1-44)
* My main problem with THE CARPET MAN is that he is a bit too inexperienced to come from a 5f race
* No horse has done that in Wolverhamptons 49 races and none for several years at other sand tracks
* The 5f runners DUKE OF MILAN and DYSONIC are ok as they are the right sort that come from 5f races
* I wont be selecting DYSONIC though with just 2 runs since July
* Fillies with under 9 runs have struggled
* BONNET O´BONNIE has tha to overcome
* No filly had a months absence and won like WODHIL BE -BONNET O´BONNIE
* GONE N DUNNETT is the wrong type for the race and MIND ALERT doesnt look ready to win
* The filly CANINA just doesnt leap off the page as a likely winner
* I had no real problem with these 2 horses
* DUKE OF MILAN - BRIERY BLAZE and you could also consider MIDMAAR
* MIDMAAR is weak statistically but the money for him and his record fresh urges caution
* I would expect one from DUKE OF MILAN - BRIERY BLAZE -MIDMAAR to win
* DUKE OF MILAN would bury these on his form a year ago and is well handicapped
* He caught the eye last time fnishing well and might well be able to win this

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