Tuesday September 18th

No Account Bet

Not having a Selection again today. Several reasons why not. Firstly I Lost a few hours this morning with the Racing Post website down and unusable for "Scheduled Maintenance". Secondly for a few reasons given later in the message. It gets better from tomorrow onwards. Some
important issues raised today. Limited analysis today. Cut to the Bone a bit. When I start having strong bets this week you can be sure they are strong and well researched and they will happen on easier days than today.

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Today's Racing

We are at the start of a short quiet period. What you find at this point of the season is that it gets a bit colder - the frames of the races slightly alter - there are Fewer meetings but in the fewer races available the field sizes increase and it becomes that much harder. Most punters
recognise this as the "Silly Season". The Most important thing for us is not to have a Losing run. Most people/services will now have that poor run if they havent already as they dont prepare for the changes that are facing us. I will be making sure we dont fall into the trap of being threatened by a losing run by making sure I react quickly to whats happening. In Motoring terms the Car will be at 30 mph and no more until the road gets safer. There are less accidents at 30 mph than at faster
speeds and less casualties as well and we need to slow down a touch. We managed to win Money again last week - There is more than an impressive set of results this season. Let's not look back in a month after 5 or 6 losing bets and start using cliches like "silly season" and the often used "bad time of year" and desperate things like "cant wait for the jumps". We deserve and have earnt
a strong finish to the season . Lets make sure we have one . If that means messages shorten and I go quiet for the odd day or have a few days with no bets then you can be assured it is for a Good reason. It is the time of year to draw on all our experience and Only have strong bets when they are inescapable and worth strong bets. The real professional thing to do is Anticipate and prevent losing
runs rather than have them and bleat about them and then find that when the 10/1 winners come along that you really fancy - as they will - that you have both the profit intact - the confidence - and the courage to go for them and not miss out on them because a losing run that could have been avoided wasnt and you dont feel you can risk it. Thats the lesson learnt from past seasons. Thats the class and experience coming through. We have had so many big priced winners this season and had so much profit that if we play this period as well as we should do then we can increase that profit. Thats what I am doing in the next
few days and the service will be travelling at no more than the speed limit thats sensible.


THIRSK and YARMOUTH Today.

Keen to avoid the Big field and races with horrible looking shapes to them.


THIRSK 2.00 - INGLEBOROUGH MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo) 6f

11/8 Writingonthewall, 7/4 Unbreak My Heart, 5/1 Carnival Dream, 8/1 Doric Dream, 25/1 Casa Mia, 33/1 Actabou, Pavershooz, 40/1 Chica Guapa, 50/1 Petidium, Primer Lugar, Ruby´s Rainbow, 100/1 Kyzer Chief, Latin Dancer, Sandies Choice.

* This is a maiden race for 2 year olds over 6f
* Guessworks the order of the day
* My guess would be UNBREAK MY HEART
* I Dont really want an each way option here
* CARNIVAL DREAM is a 66 rated filly and with big stable opposition she may be short of class
* Dont want DORIC DREAM as she is a filly with 1 run coming from a 5f race
* 192 similar races were run in September and only 2 were fillies coming from 5f races after 1 run
* That doesnt take into account that DORIC DREAM has an absence to overcome
* No Filly has won a Thirsk maiden before coming from a 5f race (0-17)
* CARNIVAL DREAM and DORIC DREAM make little appeal to me
* This looks a straight fight between the favourites
* Given the choice I prefer UNBREAK MY HEART
* Mainly as WRITINGONTHEWALL has to come from a 5f race
* I also like UNBREAK MY HEART's trainer Roger Charlton in these races
* He has a lot of juvenile winners that were unplaced on their debuts
* They are often given quiet runs before showing significant improvement
* Just how good either horse is cant be known
* The 3 renewals of this race all went to horses coming from 6f races though
* Thats really why I feel UNBREAK MY HEART is a better guess than Writingonthewall

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THIRSK 3:00 - WHERNSIDE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 1m

6/1 Grandad Bill, Time To Regret, 7/1 The Bonus King, 10/1 Green Pirate, Terenzium, 12/1 Coalite, Frimley´s Matterry, 14/1 Baby Barry, Brace Of Doves, Counterfactual, Fairy Monarch, Smart Pick, 20/1 Domesday, Jalamid, Linden´s Lady, Passionately Royal, Zhitomir, 66/1 Nortelco.

* Horrible looking 8f handicap
* Should really be ignoring it and moving on
* Got a shortlist of 8 which isnt ideal
* I have opposed the horses failing the strongest trends
* These are older horses aged 7 with a Month or more's absence
* Horses coming from claimers
* Horses coming from 6f races or with absences of 11 weeks or more
* My shortlist based on these angles in a Vile race is as follows
* Time To Regret - Green Pirate -Terenzium - Coalite- Brace Of Doves -Smart Pick -Jalamid -Linden´s Lady

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THIRSK 4:00 - SHIRLEY CARTER HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-90) 6f

9/4 Inter Vision, 5/1 High Curragh, 6/1 Avertuoso, 7/1 Guest Connections, Romany Nights, 10/1 Dakota Rain, 14/1 Fire Up The Band, Guto, 16/1 My Gacho, 25/1 Musca, 33/1 Swing The Ring.

* This is a decent looking sprint handicap
* No horses have profiles that would make them negatives
* I wouldnt want to bet AVERTUOSO coming from a 3yo handicap
* FIRE UP THE BAND may just be too old
* GUTO (Claimer last time) and SWING THE RING (absence) are rejected
* I doubt the 3 year old MUSCA will win
* My problem with INTER VISION is that he is the only runner coming from 5f
* The 5f horses are not as good as the 6f runners but he isnt a negative
* This is because of the 5f horses that do win - many are like him - fit and in form
* INTER VISION has a sound chance but he wouldnt be for me coming from 5f
* May just be the turn of the well handicapped GUEST CONNECTIONS to win
* Lighter weighted horses like him, Romany Nights -My Gacho might be the right types
* I do like HIGH CURRAGH but he comes from a conditions race and is Topweight
* I checked out topweights that ran in identical races coming from conditions races
* I expected a Good record but it was only 1-78 and that slightly put me off him
* Selection is GUEST CONNECTIONS but a race I havent felt confident about

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THIRSK 4:30 - WHITE SWAN AT AMPLEFORTH HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-85) 5f

2/1 Ishetoo, 100/30 Valery Borzov, 5/1 Deserted Dane, 11/1 Bridge It Jo, 12/1 Pegasus Dancer, 33/1 Hawaii Prince.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* No renewals of this race but Thirsk has 36 similar races all year round
* There has been 19 similar races run in September as well
* Sample sizes are small as these races are not common
* I would try and get ISHETOO beaten with a 32 day absence
* He was improved and in great form a few weeks ago
* That was a fair time ago though and it wont be easy for him to peak again after 32 days
* ISHETOO has the longest absence to overcome in the race over the shortest trip
* Look at the 36 Thirsk races that have been run - Only 1 horse had that absence and won
* In the 19 races in September - admittedly an uncomfortably small sample size -
* Horses like ISHETOO that were absent over a Month had a weak 1-51 record in 19 races
* I think Pegasus Dancer - Hawaii Prince look outclassed
* DESERTED DANE looks good value to me
* VALERY BORZOV another serious threat
* I think ISHETOO will get beaten and this pair look best placed to do that

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Y A R M O U T H

Just a few brief words

In the 2.10 I would be looking to oppose favourite Getrah on grounds of inexperience and absence
I would also be looking to take om All of Me - Lawyer to the World - Grand Symphony -Proper

In the 3.10 I would want an each way option rather than the favourite Prince of Delphi
The best option may well be Lands End

In the 3.40 I would be looking to oppose Ardennes and the favourite Persian Fox

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