Mathematician 647 | 01-01-2007 |
No Account Bet
I Detest Today's Cards. I have taken the unusual step of writing a few races up and then taking them out of the message as they are simply not good enough. In the End I have just done one race today. It is a very poor email today but I dont want to put my name to Drivel and some of the things I had in the message could only be described as Drivel. None of the limited number of options I had today materialised into bets. In fact most of them looked innacurate to me having relooked at them again. There will be some sparkling ground brealing e mails this year. Sadly this is not one of them and I send it almost ashamedly. Quiet start to 2007. 3 Meetings to consider tomorrow. My Only fancy today is at Exeter where I feel a small win bet on GO HARVEY GO 9/1 with a saver on RADNOR LAD at 5/1 in the same race. I have had a small bet on these. More of an interest bet than anything serious but they shouldnt be 9/1 and 5/1
I am changing the 0871 number Pin Code in the next day or so.
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TODAYS RACING
EXETER 1.15 - 5/2 Jam Packed, 9/2 Phareight Dei, Radnor Lad, 11/2 Champagne Sundae, 10/1 Go Harvey Go, 12/1 Harrival, 14/1 Georges Boy, 16/1 Lagan Legend, Radigan Lane, 25/1 Lansdowne Princess, 33/1 Toledo Sun.
Selection - GO HARVEY GO 10/1 with a saver on RADNOR LAD 5/1
This is effectively just a 0-95 and a poor looking race. I think GO HARVEY GO is the value at 10/1 but I would want a saver on RADNOR LAD at 5/1. Its a race run in honour of Billy Williams who died recently. Billy Williams is father of trainer Ian Williams who runs PHAREIGHT DEI and tries to win the race in his fathers honour.PHAREIGHT DEI ran well 4 days ago and he has to be given a good chance on that run. Personally I dont like betting horses in Novice Handicap Hurdles that have raced over 20 times before. They are exposed and dont score that well. I wouldnt be making him a strong negative though as this race looks easier than the one he just finished 3rd in last time out and he is certain to be trying for his life but you do really want Novices in these races. Every past winner of this race was lightly raced. There have been 29 races at Exeter like this in the past and 28 went to lighter raced horses and as a 9 year old I want to oppose him. His age group have a weak 1-41 record in these races and he is one of these that will only win if the lighter raced improving Novices dont perform. I cant have another 9 year old CHAMPAGNE SUNDAE first time out this season. HARRIVAL will fail for fitness I think and GEORGES BOY is the same boat and too exposed. I think it is hard to rate JAM PACKED But I personally dont want a 5 year old giving away weight on heavy ground. There are 2 strong runners for me. GO HARVEY GO and RADNOR LAD and I think both are worth betting. RADNOR LAD won last time out. There was a wiff of fluke about it as he won at 33/1 having achieved little before that but thats not entirely true as he would have placed at Towcester earlier in the year and that race was a far better one than the race he has just won and a far better race than this. He has won 9 days ago and comes here fit and in form Handling both trip and Ground and not many can say that. I also like GO HARVEY GO could well be a Dark Horse. He has always been a horse Richard Phillips said was very decent but last year he had problems with an ulcerated stomach. His first run in a Handicap last time was not bad especially as it looked like he didnt get the 3m1½f trip at Plumpton. He was right there at the 2m 6f point last time and this drop in trip looks to be what he needs. He was entitled to still need the run last time out and he fits the profile of several recent winners of this race in that he is lightly raced and untested .He clearly has enough ability to win a 0-95 and I feel he is a big price to win this.
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