Friday September 7th

No Account Bet

We are starting back today and I am back full time after a
few days break. Quick message for Friday. Simple issue
today. KINGS POINT 7/1 is my best bet today in the 4.15
at Haydock and the only issue to consider was whether
he should be an account bet or best bet of the day. I would
say he is very much "borderline" account bet - but I have
made him only a "best bet". This was a close call but partly down to the fact not everyone will expect or check for a message today as I am back a day early. That said he is worth a bet at 7/1 and thats all I plan to do today. Saturdays E Mail will be around 11.30. Looks a pretty standard weekend so far but far too early to know what chances there are of a strong bet Just KINGS POINT today as a "best bet"

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Talking Points

* Current Position

We are coming to the end of the 23rd week in a 32 week season but we are ahead of schedule and doing really well. Decided to come back from "Holiday leave" today as I feel I have enough today for a worthwhile message. It has been a good season so far. We had a Good one last season but most of the winners came with the "best bet of the day" rather than the more important "account". I vowed to change that this year and thats what has happened. We have had just 30 Account bets this season but 43% of these have shown a profit and there has been winners at some superb prices this year thathave included prices of 5/1 8/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 winners and that has shot profit up to well over £2500. This has been a very impressive set of results. I have already described that I personally feel its down to the fact I have matured and started to fullfill potential and am mentally a lot stronger than in the early days
of the statistical dominated approach 2/3 years ago. I think we can look to increase profits during the
last 25% of the season. We are in a position on the account we have not been in so far in terms of long
term profits. I am also more than pleased that we have also made nice profits on the "best bets of the day"
as well and the overall standard has been pleasing and high in the daily E Mails. Not to say we cant run
into trouble at any stage but for a few months now I have been more than happy with where we were and
the fruits of the labour have been seen. With the past week acting as a chance for a break and get myself
hungry and Fresh again I feel the Timings been spot on this season. Next week we have the St Leger
meeting which is always quite interesting. In terms of the St Leger I am a little bit "out of the Loup" in
terms of what will definately run - but I have been looking at the race from a distance and At this stage
I wouldnt to commit myself to anything Ante Post for fear of it run running - But I can raise statistical
question marks over most of the Fancied runners and at this stage I think RAINCOAT may well be the
value at about 12/1. Havent backed him myself though and as I say I dont feel I know enough yet about
running plans as I have taken my eye off the ball whilst on my short break. Message today. There will
be a Message tomorrow on Saturday. Clearly the rest of the season is about finding more decent winners
on the Account. I dont know where they will crop up or when they will but I will give you one date that
I have down as pretty significant. Thats October 7th where I would be pretty confident that I will be
giving you a winner at my local Uttoxeter track. In the meantime there should be plenty of bets before
that and with results good and confidence never higher we are on good terms with ourselves and I expect and want a record breaking season before I start on the Jumps and the Sand and the Laying service.

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TODAY'S RACING


There is just one preview today at Haydock but it is a race I quite like the look of. Anyone
wanting other views should feel free to Post on the message board and I will do what I can but I did feel I only had one race I could say something interesting in. Before that race I also felt I would nominate TRENCHTOWN as a likely winner of the Maiden at Chepstow at 2.10.
He isnt much of a price but I do expect him to win. There are very few fancied horses against him and the second favourite Loyal Knight mucy be far from certain to stay an extended mile on one of the country's stiffest tracks being out of the sprinter Choisir. I would expect the
favourite TRENCHTOWN to have no stamina issues and beat his field.


HAYDOCK 4.15 - PFA ONE GOAL ONE MILLION CHARITY HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-85) 1m30y

9/2 Flighty Fellow, Kings Point, 6/1 Wovoka, 13/2 Bobski, Orpen Wide, 7/1 Spume, 8/1 Wheels In Motion, 10/1 Sea Storm, 14/1 Just Bond.

* KINGS POINT interests me today
* This is a 0-84 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 14 renewals of this race
* I see strong arguments for KINGS POINT
* I see decent arguments against a few of his rivals
* The combination of both make him worth betting
* KINGS POINT is a Topweight down in class
* I see him as the Class horse and in a Class he ought to win in
* He would qualify as a bet based on Class and Average Official Ratings
* This is a horse thats won a Group 3 race and a Listed race
* That ensured that he was badly handicapped
* He is rated 84 now having been dropped significantly in the handicap
* Just a year ago he was rated 105 and placed in a Group 3 race
* He is clearly not good enough to win handicaps off 105 in Class 2 grade
* Now he races off a 21lbs lower mark (84) and faces Class 4 grade
* He has NEVER Ran in such a low class handicap before
* He hasnt even run in a class 3 race yet
* The huge drop in his rating and the drop in class make him stand out today
* Two races ago he ran over Course and Distance in a 0-100 handicap
* I selected him that day - he only came 7th but I fancied him in a 0-100 handicap
* Today he only has a 0-83 handicap to negotiate
* That day (August 11th) he met horses rated 92 86 100 87 89 87 93 97
* Thats opponents with an average official rating of 91.38
* Last time out he met horses with Average Official Ratings of 93.58
* Today his opponents have a far lower A.O.R of just 78.50
* That shows he has a significant drop in class
* Go back to any and every race this horse has had for a long time and this is far easier
* You can argue he hasnt any winning handicap form but that doesnt worry me
* He has ran in 17 handicaps but in 13 of the 17 races he was 16/1 and unfancied
* Some were on unsiatable soft ground and some in Dubai where he was "dehydrated"
* He may be a small field horse as well and with just 8 opponents thats ideal if he is
* Since returning from Dubai in Febuary he has ran 6 times
* His 4th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup in May would win this
* That was an excellent run with a 10 week break and he wasnt right statistically that day
* His defeat at York is very forgivable in a Listed Handicap (0-108) on soft ground he hates
* At Newcastle in June the ground was against him and that was a 0-100 handicap
* At Goodwood in the Totesport Mile his run can safely be ignored
* He missed the break badly that day and was "never on terms"
* He then took in another Two Class 2 handicaps
* Last time he had a bad draw in an 18 runner 0-104 Class 2 handicap
* You have to work with the significant backdrop that this is a 0-83 Class 4 handicap

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* This race has 14 renewals
* The stats strongly suggest you want a horse with a recent run
* 13 of the 14 winners ran within 18 days of their last run
* Horses that did not had a pretty miserable 1-111 record
* Thats a possible pointer against BOBSKI absent 33 days
* BOBSKI can run well fresh though which undermines that stat
* WHEELS IN MOTION has also been absent 40 days and has other problems
* He is a 3 year old and they have a weak 2-73 record in this race
* He also comes from a race under 8f last time out
* All 55 horses that did that lost in this race
* WHEELS IN MOTION with 7 runs would also be the least experienced ever winner
* SPUME has issues not least as a 3 year old
* He comes from a 3yo handicap and all 27 that tried that failed in this race
* SEA STORM has ran just twice since May and may not be as race fit as many
* I would be comfortable about opposing Spume - Sea Storm - Wheels in Motion
* The rest are fine statistically and help make up a tough handicap
* The Negatives - and the overall profile for KINGS POINT look promising
* At his price in a small field I see KINGS POINT as more than Good value
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