Saturday

First Message Back after coming out of Hospital quite late yesterday. These places are very hard to escape from
and thankfully it only cost us one message which I shall repair by doing a message Tomorrow. In fact Sunday looks a far better day than today. Its quite poor that on only the 2nd Saturday of the Flat Season there are no Turf Meetings. Today only see's Kempton on the Sand and 3 National Hunt fixtures. It may sound lazy - but I wont be
offering anything on the National Hunt today. It is not easy and I also think quite dangerous to keep switching codes and I can not see anything over the Jumps today and I hate some of the field sizes I can see. KEMPTON is a Track where I have not got much to say about either. The Meetings History is soiled as it had previously been run on Grass and now it is on Sand. Thats a big difference and once great races like the Queens Prize have been reduced to a 6 runner sand handicap. I will do what I can at Kempton but we are not really being offered much. In the few days since the Flat season started my messages have been strong and Crisp and pretty accurate and thats what I want to keep up and not just pander to some of the "Must have a bet as its Saturday" people. This is likely to be the worst Saturday there will be this year with no Grass racing. Rather than try and force something that clearly wont be there at Kempton I am far better off starting early looking at tomorrow's cards.

There is Musselburgh Tomorrow and a Very Busy Bank Holiday on Monday and Tuesday has the first of the Pontefract staying races and that was the year we had our first bet in last year when we on the 11/2 winner . Far Better that I get the next 3 days right than fall into the Trap of forcing something that is not there today. I must also reply to the massive backlog of e mails I have. I had intended to get that done by now but I just have not had a chance yet to do that and I will get that done very soon. Anyone wanting any other Racing Opinions today over the Jumps just ask me on the board. I am also changing the 0871 number in the next few days.

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TODAY'S RACING

KEMPTON

Kempton starts off with a Listed Race for Fillies at 2.10

5/2 Highway To Glory, 11/4 Persian Express, 3/1 Don't Dili Dali, 9/2 Expensive, 10/1 Rakata, 16/1 Symbol Of Peace.

The race has a short 3 year history (two renewals only on grass) and what the trends do point to is that the likelyhood is that a Horse stepping up from Handicap company has it all to do against proven Listed Class runners. In all 8f Listed races for fillies before the second half of the season only 1 horse managed to come from a Handicap to win one of these races. It certainly is more complicated than that though as we now have to consider the relatively new "Dubai" races in the Spring at Nad Al Sheba. They could completely change that record and are their races proper handicaps anyway. Anyway if the trend holds then the winner will come from either HIGHWAY TO GLORY or EXPENSIVE who are the only Listed Class horses in the race. It is certainly not a trend I would be banking on with any confidence though. I am happy
to ignore SYMBOL OF PEACE who is up radically in class. I dont want to bet RAKATA first time out. She is a 5 year
old and every past renewal of this race went to 4 year olds. Chris Wall runs EXPENSIVE and states in the Press that there is a stamina doubt his Royal Applause filly. I agree with him. This is not a stamina laden Sire at all and when this sires runners mix high class races with longer trips they do struggle. Royal Applause runners at 8f or more in Listed Class or higher have a 0-30 record. That suggests to me there is a doubt about EXPENSIVE being effective in this sort of class at this sort of trip. That said he is one of only 2 Listed proven horses -its a small field - and the way races can be run here can corrupt any stamina predictions and you would be mad to lay anything here in a big price in a small field. I am going to oppose him though because of that stamina doubt. I respect DON'T DILI DALI but it doesnt impress me that she is far more experienced than most Listed race winners have been in similar races and I am not convinced the drop in trip
from 12f to 8f suits either. I felt PERSIAN EXPRESS and HIGHWAY TO GLORY came out with "Least wrong" with their
chances and the fact that HIGHWAY TO GLORY has been in Listed Class before ought to make her the pick on paper.
They dont run on paper though and you have to hope she is fit and prepared to win the race and in a race that has so
many unsafe issues that need resolving yet doesnt give you the evidence to do that it looks impossible to nail down
a very firm conclusion.

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The 2.45 Handicap is not one you can get a confident edge in. Last years renewal was the only Mile 3 year old handicap to be run on Sand in this sort of class before and with absolutely no History to fall back on its impossible to know just how horses like TYBALT will fair coming from juvenile maidens or ZAHAM from 3 year old maidens. I think there favourite TYBALT is plenty short enough at 13/8 but you have to wonder how many of these will be fancied or ready to win . Quite simply the evidence is just not there to support a conclusion. I have no interest in the Roseberry (3.20) as it has changed
distance this year - and on top of that there has not been an 11f handicap in this class before June so it is a futile excercise to try and use any angles to narrow this down. You also have a big field with most of the rivals having some sort of chance. It just looks far too open.


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KEMPTON 3.50 - 3/1 Sri Diamond, 9/2 Charlie Cool, Grand Passion, 11/2 Cimyla, 7/1 Imperial Star, 8/1 Nakheel, 10/1 Dansili Dancer, 16/1 Chicken Soup, 25/1 Adventuress, 33/1 Hail The Chief.

The Magnolia Stakes is a 10f Listed Class race. There have been 39 Listed races at this trip at this time of year. 15 of these comprised of the Magnolia Stakes although only 1 of these was run on the All Weather. So its a pretty unsafe portfolio to try and predict the result from but what these 39 races suggest is that you really are far better off avoiding Handicappers. There are 10 runners in this race.

Horses from Handicaps are SRI DIAMOND - CHARLIE COOL - DANSILI DANCER - HAIL THE CHIEF- ADVENTURESS

Horses from Listed/Group/Stakes races are CHICKEN SOUP - CIMYLA - GRAND PASSION - IMPERIAL STAR - NAKHEEL

The results of the 39 races do suggest that the winner should really come from the Listed/Group/Stakes races. Only 3 of the 39 winners came from handicaps. None of these were 4 year olds like CHARLIE COOL or ADVENTURESS. All 22 horses aged 4 that tried to win Listed races coming from Handicaps failed. Also failing were the 45 handicappers that ran at 10f or more. I have to oppose CHARLIE COOL as he is both a 4 year old and one that comes from a Handicap over 10f or more. I have to be against DANSILI DANCER another handicapper coming from10f or more. HAIL THE CHIEF is easy to oppose and I am also against SRI DIAMOND who is said to "Need the race" and attempts to become the only handicapper to drop in trip yet rise in Class. The winner really ought to come from one of these 5 runners -

CHICKEN SOUP - CIMYLA - GRAND PASSION - IMPERIAL STAR - NAKHEEL

You could argue that as 13 of the 15 Magnolia winners were seasonal debutants and that None had ran 3 or more times that year as Chicken Soup, Cimlya or Grand Passion have done. That is Not a brilliant trend but its about the only one we have in a race like this and that just marginally steers me towards a shortlist of 2 runners - IMPERIAL STAR and NAKHEEL as the strongest runners of profile and at 8/1 and 9/1 they are reasonable prices.

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KEMPTON 4.55 - 9/4 Gower, 7/2 Penny Post, 5/1 Ebn Reem, 7/1 Reebal, 10/1 Dazed And Amazed, Spoof Master, 12/1 Bazroy, El Bosque.

There has been a Massive Gamble on EBN REEM for this and my interpretation of the race seems to agree with this. I would have liked to make EBN REEM a selection at something closer to his Racing Post odds of 5/1 but he is down to 2/1 and thats a serious price change and I cant pretend he is value. It is a 0-94 Handicap. There has not been a 6f handicap in this class on the sand in April or May before once the turf season started so that needs bearing in mind but it isn’t hard to see why EBN REEM has been the best backed horse when you look at the question marks about some of these. GOWER has just won a maiden but he only beat a "37" rated horse and now goes straight into a 0-94 handicap and for a horse that failed to win a maiden in his previous 3 races when 2/1 9/2 and 15/2 you have to question whether he is this class on his last run. I fancied PENNY POST last time to win a handicap. She was a bit unlucky and I give her a chance today to win this but I am not overkeen about her being the only filly in this race and since 1995 in these handicaps if you research fillies like her that had already ran twice that year they had a 1-62 record that hardly persuades me to bet her as the only filly. Richard Hannons record in these races with horses having their seasonal debut like DAZED AND AMAZED isn’t strong and Brian Meehan's is worse so it isn’t easy to bet REEBAL on his debut. The 3 outsiders (Bazroy -Spoof Master-El Bosque) are all 20/1 or more and from stables with poor records with first time out horses. EBN REEM is from a stable with a strong debutant record and in light of the question marks about several of his rivals it is easy to see why EBN REEM has been well supported. He is the most likely winner but whether any value now at 2/1 is in doubt.

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