Thursday

No Account Bet

Almost didnt send a message today. Its an "Old style" message as I was not feeling great last night and was struggling. Didnt have a chance to do any important "prep work". In fact its "half" an old style message. Perhaps it should really have been a "day off". Treat today
as a Day off. I will be fine for Tomorrow and Saturday. Weather has improved as well. Will try and add a further bet this week in the next day or so. In terms of today I would just say that I think I'M SO LUCKY will win the first at Ludlow albeit at odds on. I also think the
first race at Taunton will go to MAJOR JON at 5/1. There is no strong advice in todays e mail. Treat it as a weak e mail and I will improve tomorrow.


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Talking Points - Wednesdays Summary

The Each way double made a small profit yesterday with Both horses coming second. Not a lot to report really. I got both races pretty much right. Got the negatives beaten. I gave chances to the horses that won both races and it was not a bad effort all in all. Didnt get the big rewards but nothing lost and it was worth an attempt and I am pleased I did not have a win bet in the races involved. Starting to tighten up the analysis now. Slowly more bets are creeping in. Feedback I am getting is positive about the Invidual Race Issues. Quite happy the ships been steadied and winners will come.

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Todays Racing


TAUNTON 2.20 - 7/2 Better Moment, 9/2 Longstone Lady, Major Jon, 5/1 Lady Maranzi, 7/1 Brochrua, 10/1 Moon Shot, 12/1 Rebelling, Storm Prince, 18/1 Ivorsagoodun, 22/1 Boom Or Bust, 33/1 Baker Of Oz, 40/1 Glenkill.

SELECTION - MAJOR JON

Selling Handicap Hurdle. I would ignore the 4 year old REBELLING. I dont like LADY MARANZI 6/1. Mares in selling handicap hurdles have a miserable record when lightly raced and having under 13 starts. Only 2 managed to win from 136 that tried. Thats from Hundreds of similar races at this time of year. The other factors that are against Mares is when they carry high weights. In fact no mare has carried more than 10st 9lbs to win a selling handicap when
they are lightly raced. I think LADY MARANZI has a stiff task. I have been saying for a few weeks now in any handicap hurdles how horses that were aged 10 or more have a miserable record when they drop from fences to hurdles. LONGSTONE LADY is another in a long line to try that today. All the recent ones have lost and I would expect her to do it. Its a dreadful record from these horses- hardly any manage to win and no Mares have done this. STORM PRINCE isnt easy to fancy after running badly 12 days ago. BROCHURA is a Mare that has an absence. Thats a combination that does not work well. Neither does the fact she carries a big weight. MOON SHOT has a chance but has been off 73 days. This is not a stable that performs well with horses that have had an absence. I think MAJOR JON may be the one. I half fancied him last time but couldnt select him as he had ran so badly the time before but he ran well last time and was staying on into 4th place. Breeding stats suggest this trip is what he wants and his running style also left me
with that impression last time out. It has to be MAJOR JON for me.

LUDLOW

There are no great trends in 2 Mile Novice Hurdles at this time of year. The Opening race looks to be a Match between the market leaders.I'M SO LUCKY is a 5 year old with 3 runs and takes on Usefull flat horse DANEHILL WILLY . The third favourite (Eumene) is a once raced 4 year old filly and I could not entertain that statistically. Henry Daly's runner Kedgeree is passed over. I have looked at all Henry Daly Novice Hurdlers like Kedgeree that have ran 3 times and never placed in any of those runs and he has a 1-59 record. It does look a match. Statistically almost every Novice Hurdle at Ludlow at this time of year is won by a horse that was either unraced or finished in the first 4 last time out.
Everything to me points to I'M SO LUCKY as the likely winner. He has the experience and a far more stronger and rounded profile.

The Mares only Novice Chase (2.40) looks a 4 horse race. PETITE MARGOT 4/6 will be very hard to beat but she has just had only one race over fences much as she was impressive in that and you dont want odds on in bad ground in a chase on a horse so inexperienced. There are no clear cut alternatives. GLORY BE and WOODSTOCK LASS Have reasonable each way chances but are less experienced than every past winner of this race and LADT RACQUET has a 646 day absence and comes from a stable who have never had a winner on the flat or over jumps with a horse that was off for more than 5 months before. The frame of the race suggests an each way bet really. I think the value in the
race is quite possibly WOODSTOCK LASS each way.

What you have in the Novice Handicap Hurdle (3.10) are a bunch of solid runners. Many are in good form. They are all experienced, of similar age and trying to prise open any angles at all is quite difficult in such a well matched group. The only runners that I could see as "weak" didnt have solid reasons. I dont like older horses coming from chases like River Ripples. Ban Dubh as an older horse stepping up in trip would not be a likely winner. I would also be sceptical about Basic Fact coming from a 16f race. I also would not select the chaser Artipreuil coming from a chase but this isnt a race I felt I had good stats to take advantage of.

The Handicap chase (3.40) is quite open. Any preview I did would be designed to take on The Dark Lord with a 322 day absence. He is about a 9/2 chance but I question his chance. Simply down to the many hundreds of 3 mile handicaps at this time of year. There have been 48 horses that tried to win one with an absence of 4 months or more combined with a high weight. Only 48 tried this. Only 1 succeeded. The combination of 322 days off the track and 11st 12lbs was enough to put me off.

The 4.10 Handicap Hurdle has not got many negatives in. Any Preview I would have done for the race would have advised to look away from Xellance - Its The Limit - Hello it's me and Jim Edwards.

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LINGFIELD 1.30 - 2/1 Oscar Snowman, 9/2 Ameeq, Bay Boy, 5/1 Polish Power, 8/1 Inchloch, 10/1 Dream Catcher, 16/1 Mission To Mars, Turner´s Touch, 25/1 Activo, 40/1 Dzesmin.

* 12f Handicap for all aged horses
* There have been 115 of these races
* Horses like OSCAR SNOWMAN with 4 races have a 3-64 record
* Not especially a good record but the 3 winners were 4 year olds coming from handicaps and take out the unfancied runners its not that bad
* Exposed horses that were not in the first 6 last time out dont score well . ACTIVO - MISSION TO MARS - TURNER´S TOUCH fail this trend
* DZESMIN and ACTIVO take a longer step up in trip than all their rivals and are at a disadvantage
* BAY BOY although "placed" over 12f last time at Wolverhampton is not a proven stayer
* He dictated from the front last time. He may have to do the opposite here and his Sire hasnt bred a 12f winner yet
* INCHLOCH has a 131 day absence. Not my favourite stable for long absentee horses. All 35 the trainer sent here with a 4 month + absence lost
* Shortlist is Oscar Snowman, Ameeq, Polish Power and Dream Catcher,

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LINGFIELD 2.00 - 5/2 Scarlett Heart, 7/2 Macademy Royal, 4/1 Belvedere Vixen, 5/1 Ceredig, 6/1 Temtation, 10/1 Stravinsky´s Art.

* 18 Similar 5f maidens
* No strong trends at all.
* CEREDIG is an older horse rated just 58 conceeding weight for age
* No problem with older horses statistically in these races but most older winners were better than a "58" rated horse
* I think CEREDIG will struggle to give the weight away
* I would also be sceptical about MACADEMY ROYAL conceeding the weight away as well

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LINGFIELD 2.30 - 3/1 Tendalay, 4/1 River Prince, 5/1 Iron Pearl, 6/1 Strike Force, 8/1 Cherri Fosfate, Suhayl Star, 12/1 Not Now Lewis, 14/1 Bahama Gold, 20/1 Bear

Bottom, 33/1 The Dagger.

* 7f Claiming race for 3 year olds
* No problem with once raced horses like TENDALAY although none have won with an absence as long as he has (46 days)
* Horses that had 2-3 runs though had a terrible record here strange as it sounds - NOT NOW LEWIS and THE DAGGER have 2 or 3 runs
* IRON PEARL is a filly coming from a 5f race. None managed to win a 7f claimer here.
* No unraced horse like Bear Bottom has won a Lingfield claimer
* My only sensible horse to oppose at short odds is IRON PEARL

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