Thursday December 20th

No Selections

I was ready to start having stronger bets but within hours of that decision I was badly floored with a Throat Infection. Impossible to do the level of work required to find decent priced well thought out bets unless I am fit and able to be imaginative. I think what I need to do now is simple. I need to get myself right for Saturdays cards. Then we have a 3 day enforced Christmas Break with No Racing in England. I plan to Peak for Saturday - Then for Boxing Day and Welsh National day and then we can start to get busier. I dont know if I should abandon tomorrow's message and get right for the weekend or carry on with Sub Standard messages. Being dosed up makes doing both a winning message and a stylish detailed message impossible. The Accuracy of yesterdays message pulled it through but I am not really fit to be thinking imaginatively and finding strong angles. Take what I say today as Unsafe and Put it down to a virus affected message. We have 3 massive days
coming up (22nd 26th 27th) where the season will be defined and I want to be ready for those days. Another 36 hours or so and I will be spot on. Lets have a Blank day and make a decision about Friday later on. I will be ready for Saturday and the 3 big days racing that are coming up.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G

At the Moment I am dosed up on something called Phenoxymethyl for a Nasty Throat Infection. That was the case yesterday and a "shortened" message turned out quite good. Feeling pretty Vile though so I Need a shorter Mail again today. Few Quick Words and then the Racing.

This is the Christmas Scheduling.

We have No Racing between Sunday and Tuesday in Britain which is quite a welcome 3 day break. Thenm we come back with Boxing Day and the King George and Welsh National day on the 27th. Those 3 days break - and advanced access to the 26th/27th cards is a huge advantage we enjoy just 1 day a year and I will be making the Most of that.

Thursday 20th Message as normal
Friday 21st Message as normal
Saturday 22nd Message as normal
Sunday 23rd - No Racing in Britain
Monday 24th - No Racing in Britain
Tuesday 25th - No Racing in Britain
Wednesday - Boxing Day Message
Thursday - Welsh National and Normal Messafe


Welsh National

I am on record at this stage as prefering HALCON GENERLARDAIS. Whether he will be the final selection will be decided very soon but I do want to wait for the Declarations and have a deeper than usual look at some of the outsiders and see if I can see something others have missed. At this stage I would be quite happy with things if I was left with HALCON GENERLARDAIS as a selection.

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TODAYS RACING

I didnt see much at ether National Hunt track today. Feeling Groggy the sensible thing to do is ignore most of the Jumps. It takes a lot longer to look at anmd you find you spend longer on National Hunt races for less reward statistically and I dont feel up to the Jumps today. There was just one race at Ludlow I liked.

Ludlow 12.40 - I think I would side with DR DREAM each way at around 6/1

I quite like both FULL OF GRACE and DR DREAM who were 2nd and 4th in the same race last time. FULL OF GRACE was statistically weak last time out having just had one race but she still ran really well. This pair having been 2nd and 4th last time may well finish very close today and a Forecast may not be out of the question. I think the fact DR DREAM has more experience - and may well prefer the
ground today - tempts me to go with him each way. I thought I could get DEVILFISHPOKER COM beaten. Felt you could argue against a few on grounds of doubtful stamina like HOMECROFT BOY and L'OISEAU DE FEU. Going to take on the once raced LIMIT and GIFTED HEIR. I respect BLUTO
and he is a danger but overall I came down on the side of DR DREAM each way.


S O U T H W E L L


Southwell 12.30 - 2/1 Holly Golightley, 3/1 Maid In Bloom, 7/2 Liani, 6/1 Shakespeare´s Son, 12/1 Where´s Killoran, 20/1 Captain Crooner, Ocean Glory.

* Very poor record in these races for horses with 3 runs like MAID IN BLOOM
* Fillies with under 4 runs - and Fillies that come from maidens are also poor
* MAID IN BLOOM - WHERES KILLORAN fail that
* No similar race went to a filly absent as long as MAID IN BLOOM or LIANI
* I would have to shortlist Holly Golightley - Shakespeare's Son -Ocean Glory
* HOLLY GOLIGHTLY beat SHAKESPEARES SON last time - Watched that on Video
* You would have to conclude that HOLLY GOLIGHTLEY ought to win that battle again
* However at 9/4 and 8/1 I would have to side with SHAKESPEARES SON
* I am not certain HOLLY GOLIGHTLEY will confirm that form
* It may be a plus that Dean McKeown replaces an apprentice on SHAKESPEARES SON
* SHAKESPEARES SON has a better jockey today - a better draw - and is a better price
* Thats really why I just prefer SHAKESPEARES SON
* There has been money for OCEAN GLORY at 16/1 and there is no statistical reason why he cant win
* He may be worth a saver

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SOUTHWELL 1:00 - PONTIN'S BOOK EARLY MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo) 7f

4/5 Weet By Far, 11/8 Didana, 8/1 Jane´s Payoff, 50/1 Amyann, Chalford, Landed Gent,

* This looks a match between WEET BY FAR and DIDANA
* Unraced horses like JANES PAYOFF have 0-29 records in these races
* Statistically I am convinced you cant split DIDANA and WEET BY FAR
* I would just marginally shade it to DIDANA in the expectation she has more improvement

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SOUTHWELL 1:30 - PONTINSBINGO.COM SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+)1m

5/2 Ruffie, 3/1 Louisiade, 4/1 Shifty, 8/1 Amorist, Davidia, 10/1 Time For Change, 12/1 Sion Hill, 33/1 Meeting Of Minds, Mr Chocolate Drop, Shopfitter, 50/1 By Storm, Global Achiever.

* Thought plenty of these were not guaranteed to be fit
* AMORIST - Meeting Of Minds - Shopfitter - LOUISIADE may lack fitness
* Didnt like the fillies that were up in trip
* RUFFIE - MR CHOCOLATE DROP - TIME FOR A CHANGE attempt that
* Overall I felt SHIFTY had the least problems to overcome
* I would select SHIFTY but much depends on how "Ready" Louisiade is after a 259 day break

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SOUTHWELL 2:00 - 5/2 They All Laughed, 3/1 Bolckow, 5/1 Calculating, 7/1 Pertemps Networks, Starcross Maid, 10/1 Bentley Brook, 12/1 Jeu De Roseau, 33/1 Dreams Jewel.

* I thought the horses with absences should be opposed
* THEY ALL LAUGHED - BENTLEY BROOK are out
* STARCROSS MAID wasnt for me as the only filly
* Not convinced Jeu De Roseau had the right profile
* CALCULATING looks stronger than BOLCKOW but both should be shortlisted
* PERTEMPS NETWORK may turn out to be the best handicapped
* Hard to know what to expect after winning over hurdles recently
* I would just shade it to PERTEMPS NETWORK

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SOUTHWELL 2:30 - 10/11 Propaganda, 3/1 Scary, 7/1 Satindra, 8/1 Soldier Field, 14/1 Swimandyouwin, 20/1 Joe Rich, 50/1 Long Gone, Reflective Glory, Sir Jake, 100/1 Island King, Wordy´s Girl.

* PROPAGANDA 11/10 and SCARY 5/2 dominate the market
* I felt PROPAGANDA had the much stronger profile
* Cumani will be desperate for her to win this as a filly before her 3rd birthday
* I think PROPAGANDA ought to win - The Saddlers Wells issue doesnt worry me.

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SOUTHWELL 3:30 - 9/4 Cadwell, 4/1 The Power Of Phil, Winged Farasi, 7/1 Only A Grand, 10/1 Bert´s Memory, Pretty Game, 12/1 The Light Fandango, 20/1 My Spring Rose, 33/1 Coleorton Dagger.

* WINGED FARASI looked the safest choice to me each way
* ONLY A GRAND's sire stats were desperate
* I wanted a "Genuine handicapper" rather than one of the several banded runners
* Money for BERTS MEMORY would be interesting
* WINGED FARASI each way for me

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