Wednesday

Feels like The Flat starts properly today. Pretty long message today. May have done a bit too much. In terms of the strongest opinions it is the 3.45 at Newmarket and the 4.30 at Beverley. I considered both races for Account bets.

In the Nell Gwyn the favourite Sander Camillo will be expected to win. I think I have some angles that can get her beaten and I did think about opposing her each way. The strongest runner on paper is KASEEMA 10/1 but they do not race on paper and I would be far happier if I knew about her wellbeing. You cant mess about with lightly raced fillies at this time of year and without knowing if she is close to her best or how she has Been training I cant realy justify a Bet. This is not a favourite thats without problems though. She may win the 1000 Guineas next month but previous 1000 Guineas winners have been beaten with her profile in this race and I wouldnt be surprised if she is. Interesting race The each way or place only possibilities are excellent in the race. I hope to see Sander Camillo beaten.

Having rejected the 3.45 race as a betting race My strongest bet at Beverley has to be TORRENS in the 4.30 race. I think he has far more Back Class than the favourite and he ought to be at his peak today. At around 4/1 I think he has to be my best bet at Beverley. I dont know whether to advise him each way or not. Personally I am betting him win only. The fact he is tight at 4/1 when his Racing Post price is 7/1 does not make me feel like we are getting as much value as we should be. Thought about both races as possibly betting races but in the end I have decided to stay without a Full Bet

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TODAY'S RACING


N E W M A R K E T & B E V E R L E Y



NEWMARKET 2.00 - 11/4 Urban Spirit, 7/2 Arabian Gulf, 13/2 Broomielaw, 7/1 Eradicate, Putra Square, 9/1 Murbek, 10/1 Rhaam, 12/1 The Carlton Cannes, 14/1 Spice Route, 20/1 Prince Sabaah, Two Timer, 33/1 Splinter Group, 50/1 Buckthorn, 100/1 Bubbly Girl, Rose Row.


SELECTION - NONE


When Markovitch won this last year on his 3rd start he bust a stat that had lasted 15 years. Before last year every past winner of this race had either been Unraced or Once raced. Horses that had more than One previous race had a dismal record. Last years result poses a question mark about whether we can trust that statistic or not and truth be told we simply dont know. Certainly Prince Sabaah and Putra Square and The Carlton Cannes look opposable and overraced. The dilemma comes from the twice raced MURBEK 9/2 . Twice raced horses have a weak 1-48 record in this race and I would have opposed him but
for last years winner doing the same. Another unanswerable dilemma comes from ERADICATE who comes from a 3 year old maiden. Only one past winner has managed to do that and I Would be worried that the ground may not be in his favour being by Montjeu. ARABIAN GULF has to prove that as well. Not making much progress here. I also have a "weak" trend I just don't know whether to trust. Its regarding horses that come from a 7f juvenile maiden. These horses step up 3 furlongs in trip. I don't know how relevant it is but only 1 of the last 15 winners did that from 35 that tried. Doesnt sound mind -blowing as a trend but if its a hard thing to do for a lightly raced horse then you can question the likes of Broomielaw, Murbek , Urban Spirit , Arabian Gulf and Rhaam amongst the fancied runners. If its a trend that holds then ERADICATE may well be the best option but as I said before I haven't really got much confidence in my angles in this race.

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BEVERLEY 2.10 - 6/4 Sawwaah, 9/2 Bond Diamond, 7/1 Evolution Ex, 10/1 Contra Mundum, 14/1 Airedale Lad, Prince Of Gold, 16/1 Baby Barry, Crush On You, Paso Doble, 20/1 Danawi, Pepper Road, 33/1 Borodinsky, 50/1 Jabraan, 66/1 Sheriff´s Deputy, Smart Pick, 100/1 Our Flossie,

SELECTION - SAWWAAH

There have been 7 renewals of this race. Last year we Had the 8/1 winner Scotty's Future on the back of some strong stats in this race. You clearly need an experienced horse. All past winners ran at least 9 times before and every winner at all similar selling races at other tracks demand that as well. Horses that had Under 3 runs this season also disappointed. All 78 that did this in this race Lost. You want a horse aged 5 or more if possible. You need a recent run. You want a Male runner. I cant have Paso Doble as he is not bred for Turf. This looks between these 3 runners -

Sawwaah 13/8 -Bond Diamond 4/1 - Prince Of Gold 14/1

PRINCE OF GOLD Has been badly hit by being drawn in stall 2 and he looks opposable with that record. On his profile I would have normally ruled out BOND DIAMOND but he was runner up in this race last year with a similar profile. Favourite SAWAAH is Bomb Proof in this race. He is one of these older mules and a shame he is a short price but he has done nothing wrong recently and comes from the same Catterick selling race that the 2004, 2004 and 2005 winners came from. SAWWAAH has to have the strongest profile from Bond City.

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NEWMARKET 3.10 - SPORTING INDEX EUROPEAN FREE HANDICAP (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

3/1 Tobosa, 7/2 Hamoody, 4/1 Prime Defender, 9/2 Eddie Jock, 7/1 Hinton Admiral, 9/1 Danebury Hill, 16/1 Vital Statistics.


SELECTION - HARMOODY with a saver on Danebury Hill


Free Handicap. My First Negative has to be VITAL STATISTIC. No filly has won the Free Handicap in the last 21 years. She has to come from a 6f race and exposed horses that have tried that haven't done very well and when you consider she has 9st 7lbs and concedes weight to male horses - when only 1 past winner carried that weight to win this since 1990 she looks to have a pretty miserable task.

This is supposed to be a 2000 Guineas trial. Has not been a very significant trial in recent years but it is a trial and its interesting what types of horses manage to win this race. What I find significant is that I have Gone back to 1989 and the last 18 renewals and found that Not one single winner of this race ever ran in a Handicap before. The Step up to Listed and Group class and classic trials is not an easy one for 3 year olds. There are Natural Pattern class performers - and they have dominated this race completely. There are then "handicappers" who chance their arm and try and nick a weak listed race. This hasn't been a weak Listed race that a Glorified Handicapper has been able to pinch. I am not talking about horses that came from a Handicap. I am talking about horses that have Ran in handicaps at Any stage of their career. The last 18 winners of this
race all had one thing in common. Not one of them had been near a Handicap at any stage of their careers.

Today EDDIE JOCK - TOBOSA - HINTON ADMIRAL Have all raced in Handicaps and thats why I have to oppose them all. Its interesting that all 3 of these 3 horses all share something else in common. They have all won 3 or more races before. NONE of the past winners of this race have ever won 3 or more times before and this makes me conclude that they are probably the wrong types for the race. I have to be against them all. HINTON ADMIRAL is an exposed horse stepping up from a 6f race and those types score badly anyway and he also has a weight (9st 7lbs) that has not been easy to carry. With EDDIE JOCK I also find it interesting that he is the only horse in this race never to have tasted a Group race before yet 13 of the last 14 winners were able to say they had Group race form. The Shortlist therefore has to be -

HARMOODY 7/2
PRIME DEFENDER 4/1
DANEBURY HILL 18/1


PRIME DEFENDER 4/1 and DANEBURY HILL 18/1 both come from the Easter Stakes at Kempton when 2nd and 3rd. The Easter Stakes provided the 1994 winner of this race (Bluegrass Prince) but that year was the only year that a horse dropped in trip to win and it was the last time that the race wasn't won by a seasonal debutant. I Think I much prefer HARMOODY. He comes from the Group 1 Dewhurst stakes. The last 2 horses to come from the Dewhurst stakes won this race (1998 and 2003) and the fact he is a seasonal debutant ensures he fits the ideal profile far better than any other horse. He is in all the Big races and the Guineas. Many will feel the trip is an issue but he won at 6f as a 2 year old. He should win at 7f
as a 3 year old. His Flop in the Dewhurst is most likely to be down to soft ground. HARMOODY for me. The Only "Niggle" I have with HARMOODY is that he was not entered in this race and was added to the race at the Declaration stage as it was reopened. I would have much preferred it if this had been his Nominated target. HARMOODY is here to represent the stable in place of Tariq who does not run. I think it makes sense to have a saver on DANEBURY HILL at 16/1. He may have the race run to suit him and he made the shortlist against horses I feel opposed for strong reasons and at his price with would cost far less to save on him.

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BEVERLEY 3.20 - 3/1 Desert Commander, 7/1 Cape Royal, Pivotal´s Princess, 8/1 Dig Deep, Grazeon Gold Blend, 12/1 Bluebok, Continent, 14/1 Green Park, Wyatt Earp, 20/1 Royal Challenge, 25/1 Fullandby, Gallery Girl, 33/1 Caribbean Coral, Playful Dane, Prince Namid, Stonecrabstomorrow, 50/1 Blue Tomato, First Order, Steel Blue.

SELECTION - None but I think Desert Commander is the most likely winner

Can not waste much time on a 5f sprint handicap with 19 runners especially with Weak Trends. There are only a couple of renewals of this race so direct trends are thin on the ground but what I have looked at are all similar races at other tracks that have been run in a big field. The Angles that stood out to me the most were these. Horses that have had long absences of about 8 months or more really struggled. ROYAL CHALLENGE - GRAZEON GOLD BLEND and PLAYFUL DANE have to overcome similar absences. Although 75 horses tried to win with an 8 month break only 1 succeeded and I would be against these. John Quinn's Grazeon Gold Blend also comes from a 3 year old handicap and no horse has won a race like this doing that and the stable have a miserable first time out strike rate . The Only other angles seemed to matter was the miserable record of seasonal debutants aged 7 or more. The 1-84 record suggests it may be worth ignoring the claims of PLAYFUL DANE - CARIBBEAN CORAL and STEEL BLUE but that isn’t going to help much. These efforts hardly make a dent into what may be
required. The Big question mark is whether DESERT COMMANDER is a "Good thing" or not.

DESERT COMMANDER lost his form completely last year after June. That has certainly made him well handicapped. He could easily be the type to go "best fresh"and if he is a spring horse then he could easily take this race. When he won first time out last year at Thirsk he bust a statistic that buckled my legs as I thought it was that Good. That proves he can go well fresh and if he can be brought back to form he is a potential winner. What would worry me is that his nominated target is a race on "2000 guineas day at Newmarket" according to his trainer so this could be a prep run. Much depends on whether they "want" to win. If he wins this he gets a harder task in his main target race in May - which was a race Kevin Ryan won last year. If they do "want" to win then he probably has to be the one. It may be relevant that the horse Ryan ran in the Newmarket handicap last May that DESERT COMMANDER is reported to be targeted at did win his prep race.

The question is what really can you fancy to beat him. Looking at the fancied and semi fancied runners Grazeon Gold Blend has plenty of negatives (above). So to has Playful Dane. BLUEBOK comes from a stable with a horrible "First time out" record. CONTINENT is regressive and offers little encouragement. WYATT EARP is far from certain to be at his best first time out. PIVOTALS PRINCESS the same applies as well and this could be a "Chester prep run". You can argue CAPE ROYAL will run well but the ground could be on the fast side. DIG DEEP is obviously quite interesting as he looks the type thats "best fresh".
I certainly wouldn’t rule him out but he hasn't much 5f form and he isn’t a safe selection.

Overall I think DESERT COMMANDER is the one and I think he will win but I am not over excited about being offered 11/4 in a 19 runner sprint handicap about a horse with a main target race next time out when he hasn't ran a good race in months. He has to be the "Most likely winner" though.


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NEWMARKET 3.45 - SHADWELL NELL GWYN STAKES (GROUP 3) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

8/15 Sander Camillo, 9/2 Scarlet Runner, 6/1 Kaseema, 14/1 Precocious Star, 16/1 Pretty Majestic, 20/1 Fantasy Parkes, 25/1 Blue Rocket, 33/1 Barshiba, Kompete, 40/1 Nina Blini.

SELECTION - KASSEMA EACH WAY

I have tried to make the case for an each way bet against the Hot favourite. I think I have done that but she will be tough to beat and you can only be hopeful. SANDER CAMILLO is the favourite for next months 1000 Guineas and she will be expected to win this Trial before taking the Guineas. I would be a bit careful. You will go skint betting horses like her at odds on. A Trial is a Trial is a Trial. She will not be at her best. She is bound to improve for the race and there are other factors that would stop me betting her at that price. I am not saying she wont win but she does have question marks. First of all she has to come from a 6 furlong race. Thats not a Major problem. Many have done that to win this race but None of them had less than 4 previous races as she has done. There have been 25 Fillies in this race that had Under 4 previous races that tried to come from a 6f race. None of these managed to win the race and that included 4 favourites in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 2005. Even SAYYEDATI who won the 1000 Guineas in 1993 lost in this race when inexperienced and up in trip. Of the 6 winners that came from a 6f race , all of them had at least 4 starts , most had at least 5 starts , and NONE had an absence from the track as long as she has had.

What I also find interesting is that the other "Fillies race" over 7 furlongs for Females at this time of year is the Fred Darling at Newbury. No horse won that race either when coming from a 6f race with under 4 previous races. Only one horse has won this race in the last 10 years coming from a 6f race and you also have to consider that SANDER CAMILLO has not run since July 2006. That would make her have to defy the the longest ever absence to win this race should she win. The 19 horses that had been off the track 9 or more months in this race all Lost and None of these even placed. With such an absence - and trying to step from 6f when more inexperienced than any other horse to do that makes her Vulnerable in my eyes. I want an EACH WAY Alternative.

If SANDER CAMILLO has a tough task with 3 previous races and coming from a 6f race then surely FANTASY PARKES has a considerably harder task with just one single race and having to come from a 6f race so she has to be eliminated from consideration. I also want to oppose PRETTY MAJESTIC and NINA BLINI. Borrowing My Analysis from the Other Guineas Trial today - The Free Handicap at 3.45 - I made the following Point -

" What I find significant is that I have Gone back to 1989 and the last 18 renewals and found that Not one single winner of this race ever ran in a Handicap before" I have done the same in this race. From the last 18 renewals only the 2001 winner (Lil´s Jessy) had ran in Handicaps before. In this race PRETTY MAJESTIC and NINA BLINI are the two horses that have been through the "handicapping" route. With just 1 past winner of this doing this I see that as a pointer to oppose these
two horses.

SCARLET RUNNER and KASEEMA make most appeal . Torn between both. SCARLET RUNNER has the more experience, better stable record in the race, the better form and possibly the less doubts. KASEEMA has the potential and possibly the Class but she is lightly raced and I Don't know howher preparation has gone. Given a Choice I prefer KASEEMA with 2 runs. She is highly regarded. She has size and scope and 4 of the last 8 winners had under 3 previous races before winning this and as she came from a 7f race that gives her a far more "modern" profile than Scarlet Runners who has ran 5 times and comes from a 6f race -something that happened only once since 1996. SCARLET RUNNER has also already ran in Group 1 Company. You don't
really want a horse thats already been tested in Group 1 class. There have been 20 that tried to win the Nell Gwyn having already run in a Group 1 race and only 1 of them succeeded (1995) and that included 5 beaten favourites . This is another reason why KASEEMA looks best. Hamdan Paid 1.1 Million for her. She was quoted at 25/1 for the Guineas after winning her maiden and she still is. She ran well on her second start in the Rockfell Stakes on ground she would not have wanted and 4 recent winners of this race also ran in the Rockfell. I don't see why she cant win this.

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BEVERLEY 3.55 - 2/1 Ten A Penny, 7/2 Free Offer, 5/1 Sumi Girl, 6/1 Letham Island, 8/1 Bold Indian, 12/1 Nassmaan, 14/1 Coconut Queen, 25/1 Rain And Shade.

Interesting little 3 year old handicap over just short of 10 furlongs. I have to oppose SUMI GIRL 6/1. Look at her task. She has ran just once. She has to jump from a 6f race to an extended 9f race and she is a filly. Horses with One single run before in 3 year old handicaps are probably fine (from very low sample sizes) but all 8 lost when trying to do it as this trip. I am prepared to overlook the fact she has ran just once but I cant forgive her having to step up in trip such a way. Any Horse that managed to win a 9f or 10f handicap having come from a 6f race as SUMI GIRL is trying was either Male , or a lot more experienced than she is. If you look at the record of fillies that tried it it shows a weak 1-73 record. The only horse that managed it had ran 4 times before and was only winning a Mile race. She has to go further and although I cant say SUMI GIRL is a strong negative as so few horses have tried to do what she is doing I would be amazed if many could do it. I can not entertain her today. FILLIES in this race don't score that well. If you look at the record of fillies having their first run of the season its only 3 winners from 124 runners. It can and does happen but they don't score well. LETHAM ISLAND - COCONUT QUEEN - SUMI GIRL - FREE OFFER are all doing that.

Of these I have to prefer FREE OFFER the most although you can only really guess to her true ability. FREE OFFER has ran just twice before. I looked at how "Twice raced horses" got on in these races. Overall it was a pretty mundane record. You certainly couldn’t say it was an advantage . My problem with her is that she has to come up from a 7f race to just under 10f when inexperienced. There are not enough fillies that have tried to do that to make any predictions about how easy or hard it is but I cant find a filly so inexperienced that has done it and It is far from certain that if any horse tried it they would have succeeded anyway. You can draw some comfort from the fact John Dunlop won the 2001 Swaffham handicap with a twice raced filly (Golden Sparrow) who came from a juvenile maiden. She went from 8f to 10f whereas FREE OFFER goes from 7f to 10f. I am nervous about that but I cant say she is a negative - and she is well regarded. She didn’t run after winning a bad maiden at Brighton but Dunlop was talking "Classic trials" for her in the spring and as he has run her in a handicap he may feel she has a rating she can exploit.

I don't fancy RAIN AND SHADE at all after a downgrade in stables. I respect BOLD INDIAN but I don't really want to bet an Ian Semple horse that comes here after being beaten in a Maiden on the sand and a horse from a family that have a 1-37 combined record with his brothers and sisters. I wouldn’t rule NASSMAAN out of it but there isn’t much you can say about him. My Shortlist would have to be -

TEN A PENNY - NASSMAAN - FREE OFFER

With TEN A PENNY its about whether he can stay and translate his "sand form" to Grass. Jamie Osborne has said "He will stay 10f" but has also described him as his "Best all weather horse". Purely on form he can win this. He has the raw ability. I do not know if he will show that on grass today. NASSMAAN makes the shortlist as he has no obvious flaws and is "male". FREE OFFER is the selection. To be honest I would rather have a "male " horse and she was a fraction away from a being a "Negative" as she does not have a bomb proof profile. I make her the surprising selection solely as I think it may be significant that Dunlop has allowed her to take her chance in a handicap rather than a Classic trial. That suggests to me she could be well handicapped and as I have found an example of Dunlop winning a similar race with Golden Sparrow a few years ago I will give her the benefit of quite a big doubt.

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BEVERLEY 4.30 - 2/1 Choristar, 7/1 Augustine, Torrens, 8/1 Light Sentence, 10/1 Oddsmaker, Zonic Boom, 16/1 Floodlight Fantasy, Haifa, The Pen, 20/1 Fairy Monarch, Jenny Soba, Sudden Impulse, 25/1 Apache Point, 33/1 Dream Of Paradise.

SELECTION - TORRENS

Trappy 9f Handicap for all aged horses. There have been 7 Beverley renewals and 77 similar renewals at other tracks. The Profiles I consider to be very weak are these. Seasonal debutants are fine but Females that run on their debuts have a worrying 1-88 record. This puts me off Jenny Soba - Sudden Impulse - Dream of Paradise and Haifa but thats hardly any help at all. I want to oppose LIGHT SENTENCE as well. He would be the least experienced winner of this race. He comes from an age group (4 year olds) with a weak 1-38 record in this race and from 77 renewals at other tracks there was only 1 winner as inexperienced as him that came through the Nursery programme as a juvenile. Other 4 year olds that may be opposable are Floodlight Fantasy as well as several already mentioned above. I have never like THE PEN and wouldn’t see her as a betting proposition. AUGUSTINE is quite interesting. He won the race last year carrying 9st 7lbs. He is 4lbs lower in the handicap now. He comes from his prep race at Pontefract over 12f and he didn’t stay that day. He set too fast a gallop over a trip he wasn't sure to stay (He has a 0-11 record at 12f trips) and unsurprisingly got tired and passed by the stronger stayers. Back in trip to what must be close to his perfect trip he makes a lot of appeal in his bid to win the race again. He is weak in the market though and understandably so with Stall 5 to hinder him.

I cant rule ODDSMAKER out as a recent winner has dropped from 14 to win this. CHORISTAR is clearly about to Win. Everything points to this but he is too short at 20/1 for me in a 14 runner Beverley handicap when drawn 8 and racing in a better class of race to the one he should have won last time. It strikes me that TORRENS 5/1 is twice the price over Choristar yet has achieved considerably more than he has several times before.

TORRENS is the selection

* He is hopefully coming right now on his 4th start of the year
* He won on his 4th start of the year in 2005 when Fahey said "`Its taken until now to get him fit"
* He peaked on his 4th start in 2006
* Ground -Trip are ideal
* He is very well handicapped having won from a 9lbs higher mark
* Stall 11 of 14 should be a Plus
* Stable are in form and their last runner won
* Has won on a right handed track
* Has placed in a 0-81 - Come 4th in a 0-89 and Won a 0-84 when the favourites beaten in two 0-60's recently

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BEVERLEY 5.05 - 4/1 Eager Igor, Pietersen, 6/1 Knapton Hill, 8/1 Meridian Grey, 10/1 Nota Liberata, 12/1 Delta Shuttle, 16/1 Astroangel, Beaumont Boy, Desert Soul, La Marmotte, Pennyrock, Seaton Snooks, 20/1 Flower Of Cork, 33/1 Ensign´s Trick, Play Straight.

This is an interesting little race if you believe the past 9 renewals. These stats are quite interesting -

* Horses that had between 3 and 6 races won 8 of the 9 renewals from 63 runners
* Horses that had 7 or more previous races won just one renewal from 55 runners
* All 40 horses that dropped in trip Lost
* Fillies had a weak 1-41 record

If these trends apply again this year as they have in 8 of the last 9 renewals the winner will be one from -

MERIDEAN GREY
DELTA SHUFFLE
BEAUMONT BOY

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BEVERLEY 5.40 - 3/1 Dee Cee Elle, 7/2 Dansimar, 6/1 Red, Summer Of Love, 8/1 Last Flight, 12/1 Group Force, My Sara, 16/1 Miami Tallyce, 20/1 Roca Redonda, 25/1

Its Moon, 33/1 Olgarena, Present.

This is a 12 furlong Handicap for Fillies only. Whats quite frustrating is that there is a low sample size to base any trends on. Beverley has hosted this race 7 times now but no other track has ran a fillies handicap for 3 year olds at any trip like this before and this race stands in isolation without having any other tracks to back up any angles. The Only Angle of note is that Fillies that have ran 3 or 4 times before had a weak 1-41 record and that 6 of the 7 winners of this race were more experienced. If that happens again - and Icant see any other angles in the 7 renewals - then the winner will be one from -

DEE CEE ELLE 5/1 -RED 5/1 -MY SARA 10/1 -GROUP FORCE 12/1 -ROCA REDONDA 25/1

I am a long way from being convinced about that. A horse that has not made the shortlist LAST FLIGHT of John Dunlops interests me a lot. John Dunlops 3 year old handicappers that have a) Just 3 runs b) Their seasonal Debut c) Racing over 12f or more d) Stepping from 8f trips have a record of 4 Winners from Just 9 runners. NONE were in Fillies handicaps but 2 were fillies and they all won early season. I would consider LAST FLIGHT a "Positive "on trainer trends. I choose to ignore my trends in the race as they are not based on a sensible sample size and I feel LAST FLIGHT could be the one. Watch the market though and consider what the expectations are with her afternoon price.

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