Saturday October 6th

No Account Bet

Most races at Newmarket and Redcar today come between being pretty Ruthless or utterly Fowl . You would be forgiven for concentrating on the other Sports today for
your serious betting. We have GREEK WELL 16/1 in the Cambridgeshire. So much here will depend on the draw and how Switched off Ryan Moore can get him and how well
times his run is. Hopefully is all you can be in such a race but I like him a lot.

There is not really anything I feel is close to being an Account Bet. Its been a week where I am tinkering with my form trying to reignite it and I dont think you can force these things especially when Choice dries up a bit. So just a Best Bet of the day today but on the whole given the big fields and lack of choice available it isnt a Bad E Mail today.

I have plenty of decent negatives in the Finale at Redcar and there are very few for me that can win the race and with considerable improvement I would expect TEODORA ADIVINA to go very close. None of the questions she had to answer last time when 2nd in a handicap exist today. She now has handicap form. A Further run. She really ought to improve again today and win the last at about 7/2.

Today's Best Bet

Redcar 5.50

TEODORA ADIVINA

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


NEWMARKET 2:10 - FINNFOREST OH SO SHARP STAKES (GROUP 3) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

3/1 Joffe´s Run, 7/2 Royal Confidence, 6/1 Raymi Coya, 7/1 Annie Skates, Dream Day, Rosa Grace, Step Softly, 33/1 Then ´n Now.

* The Oh So Sharp stakes is a Group 3 race for 2 year old fillies
* It has been upgraded from a Listed class race this year
* There are 13 direct Renewals of this race
* There has been 23 similar Listed and Group class races run at Newmarket this month
* The only trend that looks worth mentioning is the poor record of horses with 5 + runs
* ROYAL CONFIDENCE has had 5 runs - and horses that had 5 or more had a 1-51 record
* Horses in the 13 renewals of this race with 4 + runs have a 1-40 record - THEN N NOW fails that
* She also comes from a handicap and horses that did that won just one of the 23 races (1-16)
* With just 1 horse not fancied there dont appear many ways to narrow it down
* I would try and get Royal Confidence beaten as being over exposed
* Its interesting that No Past winner had ran in a Group 2 or Group 1 race before
* STEP SOFTLY fails that trend - She was unplaced last time as well which is unusual
* Only 1 past winner failed to place last time out in a weak 1-31 record
* Possibly interesting is Horses that came from Listed and Group Class races
* They have not done well - There were 32 that tried to drop in class to win 1
* That was back in 1995 and it included 3 beaten favourites
* Not a tremendous stat but its unusual for the winner not to come from Non Pattern races
* RAYMI COYA and STEP SOFTLY fail that trend
* My shortlist would be these 4 horses
* JOFFE'S RUN - DREAM DAY - ANNIE SKATES - ROSA GRACE
* Only getting pedantic can narrow this down
* Such as no past winner had ran twice before like Rosa grace
* Personally I like JOFFE'S RUN who won the same Salisbury maiden as the 1996 winner did
* Horses that came from 7f maidens won 5 renewals since 1993 and they had no runners in 3 renewals
* I will be happy if any of my shortlisted 4 win but I will make JOFFE'S RUN the selection

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REDCAR 2:25 - EUROPEAN BREEDERS' FUND MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES (CLASS 4) (2yo) 7f

4/5 Aromatherapy, 5/1 Debonnaire, 11/2 Tathkaar, 7/1 Coachhouse Lady, 16/1 Gingham, 20/1 Super Starlet, Reel Cool, Strictly Elsie, 50/1 Lady In Chief,

* This is a 7f maiden for 2 year old fillies
* AROMATHERAPY looks the obvious one at 10/11
* There has been 20 renewals of this race
* Horses with 3 or more runs had a 0-27 record in this race as lighter raced horses dominated
* COACHHOUSE LADY and STRICTLY ELSIE fail that
* I would have thought something would beat this pair who are rated just 73 and 63
* Had a look at some Trainer trends
* DEBONNAIRE is from Mark Johnstons and I felt the trainers record was "below average"
* TATHKAAR is from another stable with a weak trainer record with similar types
* Also dislike the fact the Dam has produced 3 siblings that had a 0-12 combined record
* Luca Cumani who runes GINGHAM had a dissapointing trainer record
* I would want at the very least a solid trainer record to take on the favourite and there isnt one
* AROMATHERAPY is Henry Cecils and his record stands at 40% with once raced fillies in these races

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NEWMARKET 2:45 - COUNTRYWIDE STEEL AND TUBES JOEL STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

11/4 Creachadoir, 7/2 Jumbajukiba, 11/2 Tobosa, 7/1 Dunelight, Heaven Sent, 11/1 Ferneley, 14/1 Olympian Odyssey, 16/1 Caldra, King Of Argos, Metropolitan Man, 40/1 Tell.

* This is a Group 3 race over a Mile
* Newmarket has had 22 very similar races at this time of year
* At the weights - if the handicapper can be trusted - CREACHADOIR comes out best
* He has around a 4lbs superiority on this field and his stable won last years race
* JUMBAJUKIBA is a danger and an Irish raider. I have one problem with him
* He carries a Group 3 penalty for winning in Ireland last time
* Horses that carried The Group race penalties didnt score well - Just 1 winning from 20 that tried
* Thats not a brilliant trend but its worrying - 3 were beaten favourites
* Penalties are often complicated and unless its shown not to be a problem I dont like betting them
* I would oppose JUMBAJUKIBA just for this reason but the stats too weak to lay him
* I would Not select HEAVEN SENT For 2 reasons
* She is the only filly in the race - and in the 22 similar races Fillies had a 0-40 record
* I feel DUNELIGHT may just be a little exposed to be stepping up from 7f
* The 7f to a Mile issue isnt simple - It can and has been done
* All those that did it were lighter raced than he is and He may not have the class to hold on
* No horse came from a 7f handicap as KING OR ARGOS attempts
* TOBOSA has a strong chance - Make him a positive and he comes from the same race as the 2005 winner
* Caldra - Tell - Olympian Odyssey come out worse at the weights
* No real problems with Ferneley but I dont see why he should be the pick
* I thought at the weights CREACHADOIR had to be shortlisted and I also like Tobosa
* CREACHADOIR really should win on his 2nd in the French and Irish 2000 Guineas
* Obviously the issue is "How ready" is CREACHADOIR with a 109 day absence
* Horses have won this with a long break but he was bought for Dubai's carnival and will be be Fit ?
* TOBOSA each way might just be a more Prudent option - I think one of them will win

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REDCAR 3:00 - JOHN SMITH'S REDCAR STRAIGHT-MILE CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 1m

5/1 Middlemarch, Observatory Star, 8/1 Fragrancy, Soccerjackpot, 12/1 Boundless Prospect, Bustan, 14/1 Flying Valentino, 16/1 Il Castagno, Karoo

Blue, Motafarred, Nanton, 20/1 Hartshead, Monkey Glas, 25/1 Exit Smiling, 33/1 Darfour, Efidium, Pianoforte, Will He Wish, 50/1 Borodinsky, 66/1

Typhoon Ginger.

* This is a 0-89 handicap for all aged horses over a Mile
* Dont want to do any race trends for the race as its unsafe
* Its been upgrade from a Class 5 race to a Class 2 race over the years
* I could look at other similar races but this 0-89 is more a class 3 race than anything else
* Just playing with a few minor angles I will list the horses I would not bet
* I couldnt bet Will He Wish - Efidium - Pianoforte - Flying Valentino - Darfour - Borodinsky
* I would oppose Il Castagno -Hartshead -Middlemarch - Soccerjackpot -Monkey Glas
* I wouldnt want to bet Fragrancy either
* Dont really want Nanton - Motafarred - Exit Smiling
* This just leaves Observatory Star -Karoo Blue -Bustan -Boundless Prospect
* Wouldnt call it a shortlist as the race is a Mess statistically
* I have found superficial reasons to not be every runner except those 4

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NEWMARKET 3:20 - KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN SUN CHARIOT STAKES (GROUP 1) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

2/1 Echelon, 3/1 Nannina, Simply Perfect, 8/1 Wake Up Maggie, 12/1 Speciosa, 16/1 Harvest Queen, 20/1 Majestic Roi, 25/1 Whazzis, 40/1 Barshiba, 66/1 Darrfonah.

* The Sun Chariot Stakes is a Group 1 race for fillies over a Mile
* There has been 7 renewals of this race since it became a Mile race in 1999
* At a mile I couldnt bet WAKE UP MAGGIE who looks a 7f specialist
* What we have here are exposed older horses
* ECHELON - NANNINA - SPECIOSA are all high class fillies
* They are also getting pretty exposed though and have been around quite a while
* They take on younger 3 year olds like SIMPLY PERFECT and MAJESTIC ROI
* The issue is whether you want a lighter raced younger type or an older proven type
* The last 7 renewals suggests you want a 3 year old thats improving
* 6 of the last 7 winners were 3 year olds - and the only 4 year old winner (Peeress) was lightly raced
* All 7 winners had under 16 runs
* Perfect example of how the younger lighter raced horses dominated is last years race
* Last year a 3 year old beat the high class exposed Alexander Goldrun and Soviet Song
* The 2005 favourite CHIC was also a high class - yet older exposed horse and she flopped
* There are not enough renewals to be certain- after all there are just 7
* But I Do feel all the circumstantial evidence points to improving unexposed younger horses
* Even when the Sun Chariot was ran at 10 furlongs (Pre 1999) the same story is told
* Take all 19 renewals (7 at a Mile since 2000 and 12 at 10f pre 2000) 3 year olds lead 17-2
* Only 2 winners had more than 15 career starts as well
* Opposing the older class acts like Nannina and Echelon isnt easy - But I have to
* I feel SIMPLY PREFECT and MAJESTIC ROI must be shortlisted
* Why cant MAJESTIC ROI win ?
* She is a 3 year old that comes from a 7f Listed race
* The 2006 winner had the exact same profile
* She may be one of the lowest rated horses in the race but last year proves that can be done
* When Spinning Queen won last years race at 12/1 she was the lowest rated and came from a 7f Listed race
* I would say in conclusion that MAJESTIC ROI is good value each way at 20/1
* I would say statistically SIMPLY PERFECT has to be the most likely winner
* I am scared to death of NANINA despite her age
* My selection is MAJESTIC ROI Each Way at 20/1

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REDCAR 3:35 - TOTESCOOP6 TWO-YEAR-OLD TROPHY (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

11/2 Spitfire, 6/1 Broken Applause, 8/1 Vive Les Rouges, 10/1 Art Advisor, Craggy Cat, Cristal Clear, Easy Target, 12/1 Mr Keppel, Russian Reel, 14/1 Mister Hardy, 16/1 Lindoro, 20/1 New Jersey, Vhujon, 25/1 C´Mon You Irons, Kersaint, 33/1 Dubai Dynamo, Pelican Prince, 66/1 Captain Macarry, Fathsta, Kinout, Non Sucre, Sinead Of Aglish, 100/1 Ben.

* This is a 2 year old Listed race
* Redcar has produced 15 renewals of this race
* Whats happened here recently is simple to explain
* The first 7 renewals were dominated by fillies
* Then there was a subtle rule change
* Since then far fewer fillies have run and Male horses dominated
* Male horses have won the last 8 renewals
* We can produce a shortlist based on the 15 renewals
* Horses that had 9 or more runs have a 0-36 record
* This takes out Crystal Clear -Sinead of Aglish - Vhujon - Fathsta - Ben
* Horses that ran in a handicap last time yet failed to finish in the first 5 were 0-39
* Kinout -Vhujon - Fathsta -Pelican Prince -Kersaint fail that
* Horses coming from 2yo maidens have a poor 1-74 record
* Kinout - C'Mon You Irons - Non Sucre fail that
* Horses that had 5 or more runs and an absence of over a Month have a 0-52 record
* They possibly lacked the improvement to overcome such a handicap
* Art Advisor - Non Sucre fail that
* Colts with under 4 runs have a 1-72 record
* C'Mon You Irons - Captain Macarry fail that
* Horses that came from 5f handicaps had a weak record and Russian Reel fails that
* This leaves 10 remaining horses
* Two of these are fillies - BROKEN APPLAUSE and VIVE LES ROUGES
* With Male horses winning the last 8 renewals and having 19 of the 23 runners I'd expect a Male
* MR KEPPEL - EASY TARGET - DUBAI DYNAMO - LINDORO - MISTER HARDLY have Penalties
* So far all 11 horses that had penalties lost
* I will try and reduce the shortlist of 10 by taking out the 2 Fillies and the 5 Penalised horses
* This leaves me a shortlist of 3 horses
* SPITFIRE - CRAGGY CAT and the outsider NEW JERSEY
* I think CRAGGY CAT and SPITFIRE stand out and select them in that order

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NEWMARKET 3:55 - TOTESPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 1m1f

6/1 Monte Alto, Pipedreamer, 9/1 Escape Route, 10/1 The Illies, 12/1 Docofthebay, Teslin, 14/1 Greek Well, 16/1 Fremen, River Tiber, 20/1 Supaseus, 25/1 Very Wise, 33/1 Mutajarred, Night Cru, Pinpoint, Seabow, 40/1 Night Crescendo, 50/1 Annemasse, Ballinteni, Humungous, Snoqualmie Boy, Star Of Light, Unshakable, Yarqus, 66/1 Ace Of Hearts, Benandonner, Fort Churchill, Impeller, Raptor, Rio Riva, 80/1 Babodana, 100/1 Bazart, Capable Guest, Moody Tunes, My Paris, Zero Tolerance.

* I dealt with the Cambridgeshire in yesterdays E Mail
* I feel GREEK WELL is the best value in the race and the selection
* I also feel the horse that beat him last time Monte Alto is a decent saver

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REDCAR 4:10 - WEATHERBYS PRINTING GUISBOROUGH STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

7/4 Caradak, 5/1 Advanced, Jack Sullivan, 6/1 Racer Forever, 8/1 Kilworth, Rahiyah, 16/1 Rising Shadow, 20/1 Appalachian Trail, 66/1 Passion Fruit.

* This is a Listed race over 7f for older horses
* Redcar has had just 4 renewals of this race and they dont help at all
* There are 24 similar races run at this time of year - Not ideal - but all we have
* The strike against ADVANCED is that in 24 races all 31 horses that won last time out Lost
* He also comes from a 6f race and None of Redcars 4 renewals went to a 6f horse (0-9)
* JACK SULLIVAN is also a "last time out winner"
* I am not impressed with that stat to be honest but we havent anything else to go on
* RAHIYAH is one of just two fillies and fillies are slightly inferior to Males in these races
* Rising Shadow - Appalachian Trail both come from a 6f race and no past winner did that
* I dont like the look of KILWORTH with just 1 run since last October
* CARADAK is from a stable that won 2 of the last 3 renewals and is shortlisted
* RACER FOREVER also has a strong profile and is my other shortlisted runner

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NEWMARKET 4:30 - EUROPEAN BREEDERS' FUND JERSEY LILY FILLIES' NURSERY (CLASS 2) (2yo) 7f

7/2 Presbyterian Nun, 7/1 Blue Rhapsody, Dream Sea, Winter Bloom, 9/1 Dixey, 10/1 Feisty Royale, Rosaleen, 14/1 Dalkey Girl, Geestring, Talk Of Saafend, 20/1 Jennifers Joy, 25/1 Binfield, Infinite Patience, 33/1 Marchpane.

* This is a fillies Nursery over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 13 renewals of this race
* The strongest trend seems to be about horses that had ran in Class 2 or higher
* Horses that had already ran in Listed - Group - or Class 2 races Had a 1-81 record in these races
* It appears you want an upandcoming horse rather than one already tested
* The statistics hint strongly that we should oppose these horses which include the following
* Rosaleen - Feisty Royale - Geestring - Dalkey Girl -Talk of Saafend - Jennifers Joy - Marchpane - Infinite Patience
* Horses with 7 or more career runs also struggled with a 1-40 record
* Dalkey Girl - Talk of Saafend - Jennifers Joy fail that trend
* Horses with 3 runs are fine but far better when coming from handicaps (3-13)
* Horses with 3 runs that came from maidens are just 1-39
* Blue Rhapsody - Presbyterian Nun - Dream Sea - Infinite Patience - Binfield fail that
* This leaves my shortlist of 2 horses - both whom I felt had the best profiles
* WINTER BLOOM and DIXEY

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NEWMARKET 5:05 - TOTESPORT 0800 221 221 HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-100) 7f

5/1 Vitznau, 9/1 Paper Talk, 11/1 Kafuu, South Cape, 12/1 Celtic Sultan, Jedburgh, 14/1 Capricorn Run, Salient, Farleigh House, Jamieson Gold, 20/1 Kompete, Purus, 25/1 Bahiano, Damika, Daniella, Sir Xaar, 33/1 Blades Girl, Guilded Warrior, Skhilling Spirit, 50/1 Johannes.

* This is a 0-99 handicap over 7 furlongs
* It looks an utterly vile race but I will try and Narrow it down
* There has been 49 of these races run at Newmarket at this time of year
* Horses that came from 6f races didnt do well winning just 5 of them
* Horses that came from 6f or shorter that ran within 15 days had a terrible 0-105 record
* I would oppose the horses that do that and they are the following
* Capricorn Run - Skhilling Spirit
* Horses that had 21 or more runs and that came from 6f races were 0-88 in these races
* Rejected are Skhilling Spirit -Damika
* No horse as old as Bahiano defied such an absence before
* Horses that had 13 or more carrer starts -and an absence of over a Month like Jamieson Gold were1-96
* 3 year olds that had ran in Group class beforen like Celtic Sultan had a 0-66 record
* Horses with very unfit profiles include Johannes - Kompete - Paper Talk
* Between August and November there has been 268 similar races - only 1 winner defied an 8 month absence
* Paper Talk among others fails that
* Only 2 horses like him had just 1 race that season
* Horses with 1 run like KAFUU have bad records - More so when up from 6f as Kafuu attempts
* I would be very surprised if a filly won so i would eliminate all those
* I think statistically you are better off with a horse that hasnt ran in Group company before
* Horses at big prices that dont have anything statistically wrong with them include the following
* Salient -Guilded Warrio - Purus - Farleigh House
* Strongest claims might be held by this pair -
* SOUTH CAPE - VITZNAU

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NEWMARKET 5:40 - SUFFOLK INSULATION AND RENOVATION SERVICES HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-95) 1m4f

4/1 Malt Or Mash, 9/2 Sanbuch, 6/1 Bold Glance, 8/1 Cutting Crew, 9/1 Soul Mountain, 12/1 Bandama, Hernando Royal, Realism, 14/1 Invasian, Zaif, 16/1 Esthlos, Mikao, 20/1 Quince, 33/1 Cresta Gold, 50/1 Inchpast.

* This is a 12 handicap
* Newmarket have had 37 of these races at this time of year
* There has been 118 similar races at other tracks
* Horses that ran in Group class before struggled
* Certainly no exposed horse that did it like INVASIAN managed to win
* Cresta Gold is alo rejected as a Former Group class runner
* Horses like REALISM aged 7 and more are just 1-96
* CUTTING CREW has ran just once since 2004 and looks to have a question about his fitness
* Since 1994 Horses in this Newmarket race that hadnt ran within 7 weeks were only 1-60
* QUINCE - ESTHLOS - INCHPAST dont look fit enough
* BOLD GLANCE has ran once and comes from a maiden
* Horses that did that were very few and far between - Just 1 winner from 22 that tried
* That was back in 1988 some 18 years ago - I am against him - but cant make him a negative
* Exposed 6 year olds like MIKAO dont score well and none won with his weight
* MALT OR MASH is a 3 year old absent over a Month and coming from a 3yo handicap
* No Newmarket winner had that profile
* There are 5 horses I couldnt faul statistically are these -
* SANBUCH - HERNANDO ROYAL - BANDAMA - SOUL MOUNTAIN - ZAIF
* Would have thought HERNANDO ROYAL might want softer ground
* BANDAMA has let me down this year but he has perfect conditions - His best trip and looks a huge runner
* Sanbuch is a serious danger and the saver
* BANDAMA is the selection

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REDCAR 5:50 - CHRISTMAS PARTIES AT REDCAR HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-75) 1m2f

100/30 Keisha Kayleigh, 9/2 Teodora Adivina, 7/1 Trouble Mountain, 15/2 King Of Rhythm, 8/1 Four Miracles, 10/1 Dark Energy, 12/1 Violent Velocity, 14/1 King Of The Moors, Kirkby´s Treasure, 16/1 Cripsey Brook, 20/1 Deadline, Frank Crow, Onatopp, Sforzando, Wasalat.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-75
* Redcar has had 10 renewals of this race
* Redcar has had 47 similar races all year round
* There has been 185 similar races run at all tracks at this time of year
* KIRKBYS TREASURE is out - No winner has ever won at Redcar coming from 7f and I doubt he stays
* FOUR MIRACLES is a filly that comes from a 3yo handicap with an absence
* No filly came from a 3year old handicap in any redcar 10f race all year round
* No 3 year old has defied a months absence at Redcar at any time of year. All 55 that tried lost
* No Filly has defied a Months absence in any of Redcar's 47 races. All 39 lost
* FOUR MIRACLES Fails Both the above trends
* I looked at the 185 races like this at this time of year for fillies like FOUR MIRACLES absent over a month
* They had a terrible record - Just 1-107 with under 13 runs as FOUR MIRACLES has
* They had a 1-136 when carrying 8st 7lbs or more as well and FOUR MIRACLES looks very weak to me
* Very few horses defy a Months absence at this track and lightly raced horses havent done well
* In 47 Redcar races horses that had Under 21 career starts and also had a 31 + days absence were 0-91
* KING OF RHYTHM - FRANK CROW - FOUR MIRACLES all have that against them
* In Redcar's 47 races No horse defied an absence when having to setp up from under 10f (0-54)
* VIOLENT VELOCITY - KING OF THE MOORS - FRANK CROW fail that
* I looked at the 185 similar races at this time of year for horses that had a break and were up in trip
* The record clearly shows that when horses step up in trip after an absence they are weak (won just 6)
* However if they manage to overcome that they are more likely to be lighter raced
* Horses that had 9 or more career starts had a 1-87 record when trying to do that in 185 races
* Therefore VIOLENT VELOCITY - KING OF THE MOORS - FRANK CROW are all rejected
* I dont want KING OF RHYTHM with 3 runs this year and a 38 day break
* Horses that had a months absence and under 7 runs that year were 0-72 in Redcars 47 races
* I looked at the 185 similar races at this time of year
* Horses absent over a Month with under 5 runs that season won just 7 races but were 0-103 with 9st 3lbs +
* I dont like Horses that come from both 3 year old handicaps - and from 8f races
* There has been 10 renewals of this race and None came from 9f or shorter and just 1 from a 3yo handicap
* In Redcars 47 races all year round - only 1 winner managed to overcome that handicap
* Looked at the 185 similar races run in October and 3yo handicappers up in trip had a 2-84 record
* I would personally rather avoid these horses as we know no past winner of this race went up in trip
* Therefore ONATOPP - DEADLINE - DARK ENERGY
* CRISPY BROOK won this race as a 7 year old in 2005
* He is 2 years older now and has 12lbs more weight but its his fitness that really bothers me
* He has ran just once since May and that would worry me about a 9 year old
* Horses that dropped from 12f trips have never won this race before either
* I looked in the other 185 races at this time of year and no horse his age managed it
* WASALAT was beaten 8.5 lengths in this race last year
* This year he has a little more weight
* Last year he had the better preperation and came into last years race in slightly better form
* I wouldnt entirely rule him out but I dont see where the improvement comes from and no 8f horse won this
* TROUBLE MOUNTAIN won this race last year and has 4lbs less weight this year
* I cant rule him out statistically - there is no reason why he cant win
* I would be a bit concerned about the fact he is ridden by a 7lbs claimer
* This Kid has a 0-64 record when riding for Mick Easterby
* The horse doesnt really appeal as a claimers ride much anyway
* Besides that in 185 similar races horses aged 9 or more had a weak 1-73 record
* Trouble Mountain was 3rd at redcar last time in the same race Keisha Kayleigh beat Teodora Adivina
* I Believe the winner will come from one of these 3 horses
* Keisha Kayleigh - Teodora Adivina - Sforzando
* SFORZANDO came second in this race last year beaten a length
* He was arguably in slightly bettter form last year and did have a recent run
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out
* I suspect SFORZANDO will run well today
* Keisha Kayleigh and Teodora Adivina were 1st and 2nd last time out at Redcar 10 days ago
* Last time they were both slightly weak statistically.
* TEODORA ADIVINA had inexperience issues to overcome and that run has put her statistially strong here
* KEISHA KAYLEIGH had some class issues but that run has put him statistially strong here
* There has been past winners of this race that mirrored both these horses
* Hard to split them after they fought a close battle recently but I couldnt bet anything else
* You would have thought TEODORA ADIVINA has far more scope and improvement
* Thats why TEODORA ADIVINA is the selection
* With so many doubts surrounding the rest - I think at 7/2 she is the Days best bet

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