Thursday

No Bet Today

Similar situation to yesterday where I have looked at a few Chester Races but have my best bet at another track
At Ayr tonight WOLFMAN should win the 5f handicap. The only worry I have is the ground turning soft. He is a fast ground horse but so are most of his rivals and I think he will win anyway. Had this been fast ground then WOLFMAN would have been an Account Bet of maximum confidence. As ths ground is likely to be on the soft side he is just relegated to a confident bet. I also think that If I made him a Full bet the market would collapse and he would end up a 13/8 chance on ground we know isnt ideal. I dont want to talk his chances down. I am aware of the ground and I am pretty confident he will win this race and should be backed. His full brother may well win at Chester today (Mr Wolf) but WOLFMAN is by far my best bet today.

I am a bit dissapointed by todays message. I think Chester has taken up more time than it should; and has taken
focus away from other meetings and other races and that can happen with big meetings. I dont think thats a big
problem today as the other cards dont look great but I cant afford to let that happen on Friday and Saturday as
the supporting meetings look good and I may take a lower profile at Chester tomorrow. I think my Chester stuff
today is just average and solid without inspiration. Good cards tomorrow so I will do my best to find an account bet.

My only personal bet today is WOLFMAN in the 6.50 at Ayr

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Yesterdays Summary

Yesterday my strongest bet (Father Tom) was a Non Runner. Shame he didnt run as the negatives in the race all got beaten and had I known that there were to be more non runners that is a race I may well have sorted. I was very close to getting that race right - but the timing of the non runners was so late that the message had long since gone out. The only horse I nominated at Chester was Mandragola. He clearly was not too strongly fancied freely available at 25/1. He ran a nice enough race in 4th without looking like he would ever win. I only looked at 4 other races. The Chester Cup winner made my shortlist but the draw dominated the race as usual and the 50/1 winner was also statistically sound not that I could have
given him out as a selection. The one winner we did have Light Shift won well but without the Fakenham horse running we had lost any chance of a decent day.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


AYR 6.50 - BLACK BOTTLE MAIDEN HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 5f

11/4 Princess Ellis, 3/1 Wolfman, 7/2 Moonlight Applause, 6/1 The Brat, 12/1 Keelings Donabate, Mandy´s Maestro, Newkeylets, 33/1 Mandarin Rocket, Miacarla, 50/1 City Miss, Mangano, 100/1 Lady Tilly.

* WOLFMAN looks a Good thing to me.

* Had this been fast ground then I would be saying he was a outstanding bet

* The rain that has fallen yesterday and overnight is probably not in his favour

* It wouldnt be in the favour of many of his rivals either though like Moonlight Applause - The Brat - Newkeylets

* I think WOLFMAN has a serious advantage as an older horse against 3 year olds who are disadvantaged

* There has been 244 Handicaps run at 5f in May in the last 20 years in Class 4 or lower

* Three year olds won ONLY 10 of these 244 Races

* Since 1999 ALL 104 Horses aged 3 have been beaten

* 3 year olds like MANDY'S MAESTRO that had just 1 race this season won just 1 of the 244 races

* No 3 year old filly like PRINCESS ELLIS or THE BRAT won with more than 7 starts

* THE BRAT is from a sire whose only winner came on fast ground and a sire with a miserable 1-86 record so far

* From the 224 races - only 3 winners managed to defy an absence as long as MANDARINS ROCKET and KEELINGS DONABATE

* From the 244 handicaps run at this trip - NONE of these had 3 runs like KEELING DONABATE

* 210 of the 244 handicaps went to an older horse like WOLFMAN that had a recent run

* WOLFMAN had an impossible task last time giving weight for age away in a 6f maiden to decent horses

* He ran beyond expectation though leading and headed only inside the final furlong

* This drop in trip looks sure to suit. His previous handicap run suggested he was about to win.

* One of his major dangers PRINCESS ELLIS is a 3 year old filly

* His other main danger MOONLIGHT APPLAUSE may well prefer fast ground and she is only a 3 year old filly

* MOONLIGHT APPLAUSE is from a trainer who has lost with all 39 Three year olds he ran in all aged handicaps in May

* WOLFMAN isnt as good as his excellent siblings Celtic Mill and Mr Wolf but this is only a Maiden handicap 0-65 rated

* WOLFMAN is bred to improve with age. If he copes with soft ground he really ought to win

* Of his relatives his Full Brother Mr Wolf has won on soft ground as has his half sister Penny Ha´Penny

* On fast ground he would be a Banker. On Good to soft ground he is still a confident bet

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CHESTER


Going to quickly look at a couple of the smaller field races today that dont have great trends to report on.
Chester has cut up a bit in some of the races and several races today dont have great trends to fall back on.


Chester 1-50 - 10/11 Maraahel, 100/30 Ivy Creek, 9/2 Blue Bajan, 5/1 Hattan.

Selection - None

MARAAHEL tries to win the Huxley Stakes for the second year in a row. This is a 4 horse race. Statistically you want a 4 year old - and a horse with under 20 previous races. Horses aged 4 lead older horses 6-2 in the 8 renewals of this race and they have that 6-2 lead from having fewer runners as well. They are about 3 times more likely to win. In todays race there is only 1 horse that has is a 4 year old - and only 1 horse thats lightly raced and thats IVY CREEK. Without a doubt IVY CREEK is the only horse in this race that fits the standard profile of a Huxley Stakes winner. That said with 3 of the 4 horses older and exposed it would be no surprise if one of these won. BLUE BAYAN is trying to become the first winner of this Group 3 to come from a handicap. I couldnt have him for that reason. Then again he has shown he can handle soft ground and others have not and if BLUE BAJAN wins it will be because he handles the ground better than others. I think any trends are vulnerable in this race. The stats choice has to be IVY CREEK and he and last years winner MARAAHEL stand out or at least they would have done on fast ground. With IVY CREEK - Whilst he is the strongest "stats" horse in the race I would be sceptical. Do you really want to bet a Geoff Wragg horse against a horse like MARAAHEL who has won several Group 2 and Group 3 races and lost a Group 1 in a photo. I also do not subscribe to the view that rain is in IVY CREEK's favour. I think thats missleading. HATTAN won the Chester Vase here on soft ground -so how can he be discounted. The Stats choice is IVY CREEK. The form choice is MARAAHEL . The choice on soft ground could well be one of HATTAN or BLUE BAJAN so I think you can find solid reasons to bet all 4 runners and solid ones to oppose all 4 runners. Thats why I am leaving the race without a selection and without any firm views in a message and complicated rain affected contest.

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CHESTER 2.20 - Alexander Events Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 5f16y

4/1 Kay Two, 9/2 Mr Wolf, 13/2 Turn On The Style, 8/1 Cape Royal, 11/1 Bigalos Bandit, 12/1 Caribbean Coral, Guto, 14/1 Corridor Creeper, Dhaular Dhar, 16/1 Overstayed, 20/1 The Lord, 25/1 Tournedos, 50/1 Mine Behind.

SELECTION - I have this as a 3 horse race and BIGALOS BANDIT is the value to beat Mr Wolf - Kay Two - Handsome Cross

The Angles in this race are quite dissapointing. Clearly we are back in Low Draw mode in this race. The last few winning horses came out of stalls 2 6 4 1 3 8 6 6 4 8 so it makes some sense to ignore the stalls that are High. The best trend in this race is the need to oppose 4 year olds. Horses aged 4 have just won 2 of the last 20 renewals . They underperform badly as 89 have tried to win and the only ones that have won have had recent races. Today GUTO and OVERSTAYED are the 4 year olds. Both are seasonal debutants - which isnt a good thing to be in this race and both come from 3 year old handicaps. As no past winners came to win this via a 3 year old handicap they are both rejected and its nice that they take up two low stalls which helps reduce the shortlist. I cant have TURN ON THE STYLE off the track almost 12 weeks in a 5f sprint from a trainer that doesnt do well with runners that have an absence. I dont want some of the older runners unplaced on their latest starts like The Lord - Corridor Creeper or Caribbean Coral. I think this is a 4 horse race.

MR WOLF - Love his Draw. Love his last run. Wants it faster but can win on soft ground and hard to fault.
KAY TWO - Important low draw and progressive
BIGALOS BANDIT - Class horse that looks too big at 12/1

I think I could make a case for all the above 4 runners and I fancy them to provide the winner. One thing that does worry me about both KAY TWO is that He ran at Epsom last time out and that Epsom race has never produced the winner of this race. All 19 horses that came from that Epsom race were beaten in this race and several were fancied and favourite. Thats more of an annoyance and a doubt rather than cast iron proof that its not a good trial race but I am uncomfortable about whether than Epsom race takes the edge of horses as it is alethally fast sprint and it could well take the shine off horses that go there. It is just a hunch and no more but I dont like that 0-19 record as the tracks are similar and the races so close so you would have expected winners to follow up here. Given that there are no obvious angles to split these 4 horses I will rely on MR WOLF and BIGALOS BANDIT . I think MR WOLF is a very fast horse and an effective leader and has every chance today and I think 12/1 about BIGALOS BANDIT is overpriced and could easily win this as well. I will go for BIGALOS BANDIT as the value.

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CHESTER 2.50 - MBNA Chester Vase (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m4f66y

8/13 Soldier Of Fortune, 5/1 Arabian Gulf, Metaphoric, 15/2 Celestial Halo, 25/1 Actodos.

SELECTION - METAPHORIC

Very hard to see any angles in the Chester Vase as usual. The race is always a small field and that has corrupted any possible trends over the years. In the last 20 years I can say that horses like ARABIAN GULF that came from a 3 year old maiden only won 2 of the last 20 races and both those winners were more experienced than he is. Horses that had under 3 starts that came from 3yo maidens like ARABIAN GULF had a 0-18 record. Not a strong trend but worth a thought and comparing it to the likes of METAPHONIC who comes from a handicap. Horses that came from handicaps won the 2004 and 2006 renewals and
thats interesting especially as METAPHONIC comes from the same Newmarket handicap that last years winner Papal Bull won. That makes METAPHONIC slightly more interesting to me than the Stoute maiden winner Arabian Gulf. Quite whether METAPHORIC can beat SOLDIER OF FORTUNE is another matter. The issue with SOLDIER OF FORTUNE is whether he will stay this far. The Racing Post shrewdly point out that his half brother (Heliostatic) doesnt seem to stay this far. There is a strong case on breeding to suggest that SOLDIER OF FORTUNE wont stay this far. Aidan O Brien said he was "In the dark" about
him staying shorter trips earlier in his career and his French form - often run in slow pace races is no evidence that he can stay and extended 12f at Chester on rain softened ground. The case for him staying is also valid. Its a small field. Hewas placed in a Group 1 as a juvenile over 10f so you would imagine he could win a Group 3 as a 3 year old over 2 furlongs more - but those French races are misleading and he isnt a great price to pay for that risk. Personally with that stamina doubt - and because SOLDIER OF FORTUNE is odds on it may be worth chancing impressive handicap winner METAPHORIC.

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CHESTER 3.20 - Halifax Handicap (Class 2) (3yo,0-100) 7f122y

4/1 Cool Box, 5/1 Annemasse, Gulf Express, Thabaat, 6/1 Salient, 10/1 Proper, 12/1 Copper King, Magic Mountain, 14/1 Chjimes, 33/1 Dora Explora.

SELECTION - THABAAT


The strongest trend in this has to be the domination by Lighly raced horses. This race has been a deathtrap to exposed horses. In the last 20 years only 2 winners had ran more than 6 times before. Horses with 7 or more starts had a miserable 2-118 record and those winners came way back in 1989 and in 1993. It included 6 beaten favourites and 15 horses under 6/1. The vast Majority of the placed horses were also lightly raced giving further boosts to that trend. Today because of that I want to oppose SALIENT (8 runs) - CHJIMES (10 runs) - COPPER KING (18 runs) -DORA EXPLORA (7 runs) and PROPER (12 runs) who also has a penalty in a race no horse has defied a penalty. The winner should come from these horses

COOL BOX - ANNEMASSE - GULF EXPRESS - THABAAT -MAGIC MOUNTAIN

I suspect that MAGIC MOUNTAIN has a tough task rated 87 carrying topweight. Only 1 of the last 20 winners won as Topweight and I think the handicapper has punished him too much for winning his maiden. His trainer comments in the Press that he feels the same. ANNEMASSE makes the shortlist but I am uncomfortable about the fact all his form is on the All weather. COOL BOX isnt for me. His trained Amanda Perrett states "the faster the ground the better it is" and I wish she hadnt said that as that is now common knowledge - If you look at ths sire's record on soft ground its dreadful which supports what his trainer says. COOL BOX ought to want faster ground. I think GULF EXPRESS has to be Interesting. Although he only won a Wolverhampton maiden last time out - and the form hasnt been boosted - You have to respect the fact Michael Stoute has won this race 4 times before from just 9 runners and knows how to lay a horse out for the race. My issue with him is that GULF EXPRESS has an American Pedigree and a sire that breeds fast ground winners not softer ground ones so you can argue that if the ground
is clearly on the soft side it must count against him. For this reason I think THABAAT is the one. He is strong statistically and is more likely to handle conditions than most others in the race.

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CHESTER 4.00- Senior Wright Handicap (Class 3) (3yo,0-90) 6f18y

7/2 Dickie Le Davoir, 9/2 Heywood, 5/1 Goodbye Cash, 13/2 Penny Post, 7/1 Sparkling Eyes, 9/1 Espartano, Winning Spirit, 12/1 Mac Gille Eoin, 16/1 Yerevan, 20/1 Spoof Master.

SELECTION - DICKIE LE DAVOIR

This is a 6f sprint handicap for 3 year olds. There have been 14 renewals before. Fitness does appear to be an issue. 11 of the 14 winners had ran at least twice that season. Horses with just 1 race this year didnt score that well. There have been 72 horses try and win this race with just 1 race and only 2 suceeded. What may be interesting is that both horses that did it came from a 6f race and had a recent run. Whilst there is no problem with horses that come from 5f races - They have not won this race when having the one race this year and thats the area I see most weakness in.

I would avoid the horses with 1 race this year that come from 5f races. I looked at 68 other handicaps like this-in this class and predictably there was a poor record with horses trying to do this. This takes out GOODBYE CASH (Who has a penalty and no penalty carrier won this race before) and it also takes out WINNING SPIRIT. I dont like seasonal debutants. Only John Gosden has won this with a seasonal debutant and YEREVAN is also rejected as a debutant coming from a 5f race. Staying with horses that had just 1 race this season. All horses that suceeded in this race had a recent run. SPOOF MASTER does not. He has been off the track over a month and he is rejected as the 68 similar races only saw one horse win with an absence like that having raced once that year. I am also against MAC GILLE EOIN who has been off 27 days and who is also out of the handicap. The record of horses with an absence suggests I should overlook seasonal debutant ESPARTANO as well.

SPARKLING EYES
DICKIE LE DAVOIR
HEYWOOD
PENNY POST


There is no problem with Fillies like SPARKLING EYES coming from 5f races - but both her wins were on fast ground and the fillies that did win this coming from 5f races were far less exposed and with 14 starts - a step up in class and weight I dont see good enough reasons to side with her. PENNY POST has a chance but again I am put off that she has all her form on the All Weather. In the last 17 years Chester has had 312 races at this meeting. Only 8 of the 312 winners came via the all weather. HEYWOOD has ran just once at this trip and he missed the break that day and was held up - just as he has been in most of his races. He will probably do that again from stall 6 and he is a horse thats easy to see having traffic problems and because of that I am against him. I have no problems with horses like DICKIE LE DAVOIR that have 1 run this year as long as they dont have to step up in trip and he will relish the ground today. His last run was excellent and I think he can win this.

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CHESTER 4.35- Senior Wright Handicap (Class 3) (3yo,0-90) 6f18y

5/6 Al Tharib, 9/2 Urban Spirit, 6/1 Putra Square, 9/1 Van Ruymbeke, 10/1 Philatelist, 14/1 Heron Bay, 25/1 Tri Chara, 33/1 Phreeze, Seteem, 66/1 New Star, 100/1 Martinet.

SELECTION - URBAN SPIRIT each way

Michael Stoute's AL THARIB is obviously entitled to be favourite after finishing 5th in a Group 3 Classic Trial last time out. Thats the best form in this race by some way and The horses behind her were all rated at least 90 its easy to see why he is favourite. Not much you can say statistically from the 18 renewals. You can argue that as a) No horse came from a handicap to win and b) All 18 winners had no more than 5 previous races - that PUTRA SQUARE is not the right type having had 7 runs and coming from a handicap. I would be careful though. Handicappers have done well on other tracks in races like this and I dont think
he stayed 12f last time out and his previous maiden form looks useful where he holds URBAN SPIRIT on Newmarket form. I wouldnt be laying him much as he is the wrong type for the race . I cant see the unraced VAN RUYMBEKE matching these heights on his debut. AL THARIB should be fine on soft ground looking at his pedigree . It should not be forgotten that in a warm looking maiden last year at Newmarket URBAN SPIRIT was 2nd beating AL THARIB into 3rd place on soft ground and he did that without a run and conceeding an advantage in experience to Al Tharib. His first run this year was probably needed and he is likely to have been laid out for this race and having already beaten the favourite I think the bet here is URBAN SPIRIT each way.

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