Thursday April 3rd

No Account Bet

Not a busy day. The Flat card at Leicester was dissapointing and the only horse I felt would win
there was John Dunlops AL AZY in the maiden at 5.05pm. Taunton offers little so I have spent the majority of todays message on Aintree. Always felt a little uninspired with this meeting as its not a meeting that answers the important issues statistically. There are plenty of trends for Aintree but the important issues such as how the likes of Kauto Star and Inglis Drever will get on after their hard races at Cheltenham are very subjective and not able to be mapped statistically. The one horse that stands out to me at Aintree is THISTHATANDTOTHER in the Foxhunters at 3.45 and I will suggest he was my best selection on the day. This time tomorrow I will have done the Grand
National and will send that tomorrow. Today is an interesting spectacle with only small stakes.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G

Overall happy with yesterdays message. Didnt do much at Catterick but found a winner there and Nottingham turned out well. The three shorter priced horses all won and it looked like Monsieur Renard had won as well before caught in the last stride which hurt a bit. Always liked that meeting and do well there. Overall I thought it was a positive message.

AINTREE has to take centre stage today but this days racing annoys me a bit. I like Aintree and the spectacle of it but what I dont like about it is races like KAUTO STAR's race and INGLIS DREVER's race where you and everyone else dont know how horses will run. The form students have no better idea than us stat students about how horses recover from Cheltenham and how vulnerable they are and were all guessing really in several races. That frustrates me a little. The trouble for me is that
I have to stay with AINTREE as the main focus in todays E Mail as the Flat card at Leicester does not really offer much at all and is full of races I cant sort out . Not much at all to day about Taunton either. All I can do is make some very brief comments about LEICESTER and TAUNTON and then concentrate on Aintree.


T A U N T O N

I thought it was a horrible card. Did not like much at all. The Selling Handicap Hurdle (2.20) is a race where you need to have a horse thatfits 4 main criteria. You want a horse that has at least 3 runs this season. A Horse aged 7 or more. A Male horse and a horse that comes from 19f or more. There have been exceptions to those rules with odd winners over the year but they are the strongest trends and they make sense and the vast majority of past winners achieved them all and I would prefer my selection to pass all 4 tests. If that happens again then one of 3 horses will win. These are KISHA KING - LITTLE RORT - HILL FORTS HENRY

Going to ignore the Maiden Hurdle (3.30). The two bumper horses (Wolf Warning - My Nicole) are too big a price to
oppose. Normally I would oppose SHARP DRESSER with confidence as a once raced 4 year old filly. Thats a horrible profile and I would be fast looking for alternatives. The problem for me is about the favourite TURFSHUFFLE. If he stays this trip he wins. There is a genuine stamina doubt for me. If I was betting in the race I would have to assume that he does stay and would have to side with TURFSHUFFLE as the alternatives are unpalatable. What I would not do is sing like canary about how bad SHARP DRESSER's profile was and encourage you to oppose her because if the favourite doesnt get home then nothing looks like saving you. I think TURFSHUFFLE has to be the selection. I am worried about his stamina. If any alternatives to this pair look viable later on and the market throws up an alternative it may be worth considering but for the purposes of this mail I will go with TURFSHUFFLE..

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L E I C E S T E R

LEICESTER 2.10 - No statistical advantage in how many runs a horse has
LEICESTER 2.10 - Best stable record I felt came from Bells and ART CONNOISSEUR
LEICESTER 2.10 - Stables had 5 unraced 2yo's in March and April that won and 3 were at Leicester
LEICESTER 2.45 - No horse fails my 2 best trends here - None come from 5f or are penalised
LEICESTER 2.45 - I would imagine the winner will have had a very recent race
LEICESTER 2.45 - I would go with the 2 horses that have the most recent run
LEICESTER 2.45 - Our Sunnie 3/1 and One Called Alice 11/4 come out around 10/11 in a split stake bet
LEICESTER 2.45 - Thats fair enough in a race hard ti commit to
LEICESTER 3.20 - I dont fancy INXILE - BESPOKE BOY - QUIET ELEGANCE
LEICESTER 3.20 - Superficial reasons but enough to make me not select any of them
LEICESTER 3.55 - Quite happy BARAWIN - QUAM CELERRIME - SHANNERSBURG are wrong types
LEICESTER 3.55 - We have 2 once raced horses in BRIGHT FALCON - CAPTAIN WEBB
LEICESTER 3.55 - "Once Raced" horses are 1 from 11 - not brilliant but acceptable
LEICESTER 3.55 - Of this pair I would rather have CAPTAIN WEBB as he has less weight
LEICESTER 3.55 - His trainer has also won this race with some top class horses
LEICESTER 3.55 - SEGAL each way is an option - He and the others are ok statistically
LEICESTER 4.30 - Other than rank outsiders I could only make obvious horses negatives
LEICESTER 4.30 - These would be Saloon - Golden Bishop - Songmaster
LEICESTER 4.30 - Not at all much help and its a race to guess in
LEICESTER 4.30 - On paper I would prefer Dunlops DOWNHILLER
LEICESTER 4.30 - His chance is probably dependant by how good the unraced Empowered is
LEICESTER 5.05 - AL AZY would be my choice in a maiden dominated by 3
LEICESTER 5.05 - His trainer J Dunlop has an excellent record in this race and his stats are superb
LEICESTER 5.05 - Spiritonthemount is from a stable whose runners seem to be needing their 1st runs
LEICESTER 5.05 - Enroller has chances but the stable record with maidens is miserable
LEICESTER 5.05 - AL AZY looks a decent bet
LEICESTER 5.40 - Not many strong angles or negatives here
LEICESTER 5.40 - I would oppose seasonal debutants that had 13 or more runs (1-49 in this race)
LEICESTER 5.40 - Bustan - Guilded Warrior - Dakota Rain fail that
LEICESTER 5.40 - Heywood and Lap of Honour didnt do well enough last time

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A I N T R E E


AINTREE 2:00 - JOHN SMITH'S LIVERPOOL HURDLE (REGISTERED AS LONG DISTANCE HURDLE) (GRADE 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m110y

5/4 Inglis Drever, 11/2 Blazing Bailey, 6/1 Kicks For Free, 8/1 Millenium Royal, 14/1 Chief Dan George, Gaspara, Lough Derg, 20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Faasel, 33/1 Flight Leader, 66/1 Kawagino.

Selection - KICKS FOR FREE Each Way

No real history to this race. Just the 4 runnings and the Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle has been the best trial as you would expect. I opposed INGLIS DREVER in this race last year as he had a hard race at Cheltenham and he ran quite badly. This year he again won the Stayers hurdle to prove he is a marvellous horse but he is a 9 year old and very exposed and I see no reason to bet him at a short price this year when he failed so badly in this race last year as an 8 year old. INGLIS DREVER is 0-3 at this meeting and he isnt for me. Looking at the frame of the race it does seem an each way bet makes perfect sense against this short priced favourite. Considering 5 year olds score so badly in the Stayers Hurdle I would be in no rush to bet GASPARA and there are not many others you can fancy. BLAZING BAILEY fell in this race last year and whilst he probably would not have won he wasnt beaten at the time and it should not be forgotten that he was only a 5 year old last year. I wouldnt rule out KICKS FOR FREE much as he comes from handicaps. His second in the Coral Cup from Topweight was a marvellous performance although he would be getting weight if this were a handicap. I would choose between BLAZING BAILEY - KICKS FOR FREE and FAASEL for the each way alternative to the favourite. MILLENIUM ROYAL has a chance but he is never an each way proposition as he either wins showing high class form or flops. His form reads to me like he is best conceeding weight to inferior horses rather than recievingweight from better horses and he looks unsafe to me. If there is a shock in the race then it will be FAASEL that delivers it on the ground that he relishes but coming from fences he is not safe statistically and I reluctantly pass him over. I would just shade it to KICKS FOR FREE.

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AINTREE 2:35 - TOTESPORT BOWL CHASE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m1f

4/6 Kauto Star, 11/2 Exotic Dancer, 7/1 Monet´s Garden, 8/1 Gungadu, 9/1 Our Vic.

Selection - KAUTO STAR

This is about how KAUTO STAR and how he recovers from his second in the Gold Cup. Its true that when EXOTIC DANCER won this race last year he too managed to recover from being second in the Gold Cup but it should be said that there was a months break and there is only 20 days break this year. I couldnt have OLD VIC whose a year old than he was when beaten 25 lengths in this race last year. MONETS GARDEN isnt for me. Not at this trip or having not run in 7 weeks as the last 6 and 10 of the last winners of this
race came from Cheltenham and the vast majority from the Gold Cup. MONETS GARDEN also has to step up from 2m 5f and thats not been done in this race before. Whilst KAUTO STAR's recovery is the key issue you have to argue that EXOTIC DANCER is in the same boat as dissapointing in the Gold Cup. On the plus side he didnt have a hard race at Cheltenham but he has not really looked the same horse this year and he comes with risk. GUNGADU has never been in this sort of company before . At the prices I would still argue that KAUTO STAR should be the selection. There must be a worry that this is too quick back from Cheltenham
and his owner probably wont appreciate it if the Barber/Findlay horse GUNGADU beats him but l things being equal I would have to go with KAUTO STAR and give him the benefit of the doubt.

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AINTREE 3:10 - JOHN SMITH'S 250TH ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m110y

6/4 Celestial Halo, 7/4 Binocular, 8/1 Harper Valley, 12/1 First Buddy, Star Of Angels, 16/1 Lupanar, 20/1 Pagan Starprincess, 50/1 Chord, Make Haste, 100/1 Quilver Tatou.

SELECTION - BINOCULAR

We have the Triumph Hurdle winner CELESTIAL HALO against the runner up in the Supreme Novices BINOCULAR. What interests me is that the Supreme Novices is for older horses so BINOCULAR has met older runners whilst CELESTIAL HALO in winning the triumph hurdle beat only 4 year olds. Many winners of this race came from the Triumph Hurdle. Nothing at all wrong with that . I find it quite a
interesting thing that only 1 horse came from the Supreme Novices as BINOCULAR did and he (Hors La Loi) won this race. Looking at what can be fancied against them STAR OF ANGELS was 5th behind Celestial Halo in the Triumph and we know horses that ran down the field in that race have a great record in this race but STAR OF ANGELS isnt for me. Dont like the fact he has ran just twice before. The English runners in this race with under 3 runs have a 1-46 record and I see them as underraced. This also puts me off LUPANAR as well as FIRST BUDDY - MAKE HASTE and QUILVER TATOU. I think HARPER VALLEY comes here with question marks after flopping last time and why did he run on the Flat 6 days ago. Was that because they had a rushed preparation and was not sure he was fit and is it an advantage anyway. It didnt do Harchibald any good at Cheltenham. For me he is there to win if the front runners fail to repeat their Cheltenham form. I dont think that will happen. I am with BINOCULAR in this race .

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AINTREE 3:45 - JOHN SMITH'S FOX HUNTERS' CHASE (CLASS 2) (6yo+) 2m5f110y

9/2 Thisthatandtother, 6/1 Christy Beamish, Katarino, 7/1 Scots Grey, 8/1 Alvino, Arctic Times, Where Now, 10/1 Buckby Lane, Sonevafushi, 16/1 Whitenzo, 25/1 Holy Joe, 33/1 Eskimo Jack, Fiori, 66/1 Mooramana, Viscount Bankes, 100/1 Encore Cadoudal, Jacksonville, Younowhat, 150/1 Adolphus, 200/1 Adventino.

SELECTION - THISTHATANDTOTHER

For me there are two types of horses in this race. These are Exposed Horses and Unexposed Horses. I categorise Exposed horses as those that have had over 20 career National Hunt races. These horses often struggle under certain circumstances. Only certain types of exposed horses have won this race before. As things stand Unexposed horses lead Exposed horses 11-4 in 15 years. I think the best plan of attck to start with is to oppose certain Exposed Horses. I am against all the exposed runners that are aged 13 or more. The exposed 13 year olds include SCOTTS GREY - KATARINO and YOUNOWHAT and I reject them. I am against the exposed horses that are seasonal debutants as well. None have won this race before. This is why I am against ADOLPHUS - ESKIMO JACK - FIORI -
KATARINO - SONEVAFUSH. I am against Exposed horses that come up in trip like VISCOUNT BANKES. I am Happy to assume that being a 13 year old - or a seasonal debutant - or stepping up in trip can be overcome by a lighter raced unexposed horse but not by an exposed horse. Staying with exposed horses not being able to do things that an unexposed horse can do it strikes me as interesting
that almost all horses that won this dropping in trip from over 3 miles were unexposed. The horses that had over 21 career starts only managed to win one renewal dropping in trip from 25f or more and that winner ( Torduff Express) was only just over exposed. Coming down a long way in trip is not easy and with all difficult things in Racings most of the time its the lighter raced horses that are best
placed to do it and not the older exposed ones. Therefore I am ignoring the over exposed horses dropping down in trip. These include ARCTIC TIMES - ESKIMO JACK - HOLY JOE - SCOTS GREY - SONEVAFUSHI - WHITENZO. I think you can safely rule out all the 100/1 chances. I dont want horse aged 12 having their seasonal debuts. This is a Class 2 Hunter Chase. I have looked at all 46 Hunter Chases that were in this and similar classes. If you take these 46 races (Cheltenham - Aintree - Stratford - Newbury and others) and look at the record of seasonal debutants its illuminating. No horse aged 12 managed to win first time out and horses aged 11 or more scored badly with a 1-101 record. That sole 11 year old was Katarino in this race 2 years ago but None managed when aged 12 and I am happy
to rule these out. This takes out BUCKBY LANE who hasnt run under rules in 3 years and WHERE NOW who was well beaten in this race last year and hasnt been seen since under rules. This leaves 3 horses that have Outstanding Profiles and I feel one will win

THISTHATANDTOTHER - CHRISTY BEAMISH - ALVINO

I think THISTHATANDTOTHER has to be the bet. His Rating dwarfs these and his last run is forgiveable. No doubt he is not as good as his rating suggests now but he still has plenty in hand over the others and a touch of class and I think he is the best bet on the card.

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AINTREE 4:20 - SILVER CROSS PRAMS RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

11/2 Lennon, 6/1 Andreas, 9/1 Wanango, 10/1 Bambi De L´Orme, Leslingtaylor, 14/1 Calatagan, Four Chimneys, 16/1 Desert Quest, Dev, Greenhope, 20/1 Almaydan, Ela Re, Lord Henry, Marcel, Saintsaire, 25/1 Magic Sky, Tramantano, 28/1 Stan.

SELECTION - LESLINGTAYLOR

I wont bet exposed horses in handicap chases that have had under 3 runs that season. GREENHOPE and ANDREAS fail that statistic. I dont much like the exposed horses at the best of times especially in a race where so many first season chasers have won. No exposed 10 year olds won either so GREENHOPE has another strike against him. ALMAYDAN is out as a 10 year old. Happy to take out all the
big priced outsiders like MARCEL - LORD HENRY - TRAMANTANO - ELA RE - MAGIC SKY and STAN. I am happy to take on LENNON simply as he has a high weight and the longest absence in the race and absence only defied by one of the last 15 winners.I cant have an exposed horse like BAMBI DE L´ORME coming off a bad run. SAINTSAIRE has a tough handicap mark. I cant have WANANGO from a mark of 154. Dont want FOUR CHIMNEYS on the ground. DESERT QUEST has ran all his races over fences in small fields and has downgraded stables. I think the best option is LESLINGTAYLOR. Its an open race and the selection is nomore
than a hopeful one in a very hard race but I like him a lot. I like the fact he is a first season chaser. I am relaxed about the fact he has had only 4 chase starts. The 2002 winner (Dark'n Sharp) only had 3 chase starts. He comes from failure in the Arkle Chase but so did
2004 winner Tidour. We know he likes the track as he has won here before and the ground looks far more suitable to him than others. He has been well tipped up and isnt original but he will do for me.

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AINTREE 4:55 - CITROEN C5 MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

6/4 Franchoek, 7/2 Whiteoak, 5/1 Elusive Dream, Group Captain, 9/1 Lightning Strike, 12/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Laredo Sound, 33/1 Kealshore Boy.

SELECTION - GROUP CAPTAIN EACH WAY

The Stats say we have not had a 4 year old win since 1996 but when you consider they won in 1993-1994-1995 it somewhat distorts the stat. That said Two of these winners were excusable. The1993 winner (Lemons Mill) only had 2 opponents and the 1994 winner (Cyborgo) turned out to be a Champion Stayer . Its intersting that all times that the winner of this race came from Cheltenham none came from the Triumph hurdle something FRANCHOEK attemps. I would ignore the 4 year old stat. In fact I would divide it into two parts. I would have no problem with 4 year olds that had been running against older horses. All 3 winners aged 4 that did that ran against older horses before coming here. The 4 year olds I dont want are the ones that has done all their running against 4 year olds. FRANCHOEK is that type. There has been 20 horses aged 4 that ran in this race coming from 4yo races. All 20 lost and 10 of these came from the Triumph hurdle. I certainly wouldnt be laying FRANCHOEK. The Triumph hurdle is a different race to what it was and it doesnt take as much out of a horse in my view but I couldnt bet him as the shortest priced horse and prefer an each way option. I am looking for an each way option. ELUSIVE DREAM has a chance despite not being the best age and missing Cheltenham. WHITEOAK is another potential winner but only beat Mares last time out and coming into Cheltenham as a Mare rated just 129 she would have been a 50/1 chance had she ran in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle. That was a race GROUP CAPTAIN started 5/1 in and came 5th. I was all against GROUP CAPTAIN at Cheltenham as he was dead statistically trying to win the Ballymore when inexperienced and when up significantly in distance and His 5th may have dissapointed some but he ran as well as he was entitled to. Past winners of this race include similar failed Ballymore trip jumpers such as Tervel (1995) . The vibes about GROUP CAPTAIN before that race were stong and this was supposed to be Alan Kings banker at the festival. Now he comes here with no statistial flaws at all and around 9/2 I see him as the best each way bet on ground he handles well

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AINTREE 5:30 - JOHN SMITH'S HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

7/1 Tot O´Whiskey, 8/1 Kingscape, 10/1 Palomar, Peacock, 11/1 Junior, 12/1 County Zen, Double Vodka, Ring The Boss, Shatabdi, 14/1 Gustavo, I´m So Lucky, Sporazene, Trouble At Bay, 16/1 Annie´s Answer, Pacha D´Oudairies, 20/1 Gabier, Mohayer, 25/1 Auroras Encore, Mister Benedictine, Prince Ary, 50/1 Glacial Sunset, Hi Dancer.

SELECTION - Any 1 horse from my shortlist

* This 2m 4f handicap looks a mind blowing exercise in losing money
* I will try to get a shortlist based on the last 11 renewals won by English horses
* There are no Irish runners in this race
* No past winners were exposed with over 20 starts
* None had under 4 career starts
* I want horses with at least 4 runs that season
* They are 0-37 with under 3 runs and 1-67 with under 4 runs
* I am against horses aged 8 or more (1-59 record)
* I am against female horses and 7lbs claimers as none won
* I am against horses that come from 2m 7f or further
* I am against the runners at 33/1 and more as none have won
* I am against horses aged 7 or more that ran beyond 2m last time (0-86)
* I am against chasers reverting back to hurdles
* I am left with 5 horses that pass these trends and hope one can win
* These 5 horses all make my shortist
* Palomar - Peacock - County Zen - Pacha D´Oudairies -Mohayer

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