Saturday October 25th

No Account Bet

Taking a big spread of races today as it is Saturday. We have 11 National Hunt races and a few on the flat so its long and busy and bound to have a mixture of decent winners and its fair share of mistakes and losers. Looking at my best bets on the day I would nominate the following.

Two Selections Today


Newbury 4.30

BLAZING BAILEY 5/2

Newbury 5.05

CLOSERTOBELIEVING 7/1 with a saver on KINSYA 9/1


BLAZING BAILEY is one of those "If" horses. He is a handicap certainty. He has to win "If" he is fit and "If" he can reproduce his form back on the flat. That makes it possible that he could either win this on the bridle or get beaten out of sight and few will have a confident idea which is more likely. I take the view that at 11/4
he could be the bet of the weekend and off the handicap mark he has he has to be backed and I will be surprised if he is beaten. He could well be Account Status. I have tipped many Account Bets with less confidence than I have in him but as I can not if asked assure you of his fitness I can not really make him one but he looks good to me and looks the best bet today.

**********************************************
**********************************************


T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Yesterdays selection St Jean Cap Ferrat finished 3rd so nothing back from the race but he ran a strong race and was beaten only a length or so and went a lot shorter in running. Given the price and nature of the race I think he ran well and with the evening winner in the message it wasnt too bad on a day that was tough to negotiate. Todays Message takes a bigger spread of races

The Message starts with DONCASTER with no more than a
few comments building up to a preview in the 5.15pm. Then it looks at NEWBURY with 1 horse and 1 preview I like. Then the message turns to the National Hunt and a dozen or so races with some sort of comments in.



D O N C A S T E R


Doncaster has a Really unpleasant card. It would be a criminal waste of time to commit to it so I will race throught it as fast as possible. In the Nursery at 1.55pm I took out horses that had 9 or more runs - those that had previous form in Class 2 or higher - Maiden horses that were not 1st or 2nd last time and handicappers coming down in trip as they were the strongest 4 trends. This shortlisted 6 runners in Silent Hero -Greensward - Count Paris - Dubai Hills -Tiger Goddess and Red Humour
and having ran just twice before the best record has to come from Brian Meehan's GREENSWARD but its a tough race.

The 5f sprint is a nightmare and with no fillies or underraced horses in the race I wouldnt begin to want to try and sort this. The 3pm race is the Doncaster Stakes and I couldnt oppose Middle Park runner up SAYIF at these weights. The strongest runner against him looks to
me to be Favourite Girl but SAYIF robs the race of a betting interest as he is too short to bet yet too strong to oppose.

The 4.10 at Doncaster is a 12f handicap. The 17 renewals suggest you want a lightly raced horse as 15 of the 17 winners had under 21 runs. You want at least 3 runs this year and a run within 7 weeks. Horses aged 6 or more struggled as did the very high weights and the horses
coming from 3yo handicaps. This left AMANDA CARTER and
VOICE COACH coming out best and VOICE COACH looks by far
the more progressive of the pair.

Doncaster 4.45

5/2 Welsh Emperor, 3/1 Sirocco Breeze, 11/2 Red Alert Day,
6/1 Mr Aviator, Plum Pudding, 14/1 Kay Gee Be, Quito, 16/1 Protector, 20/1 Aeroplane, Dabbers Ridge, 200/1 Sion Hill.

The 4.45pm is a Conditions race over 7f. There has been 15 renewals of this race. I would have to ignore QUITO as an 11 year old absent 407 days and this horse surely wont have the legs. SION HILL is outclassed. Much depends on Godolphin's SIROCCO BREEZE as he has ran only once before. In the 15 renewals of this race no horse ran under 5 times before. I looked at all similar races for once raced horses and found a 1-15 record so it can be done but its hardly ideal and he faces decent opposition. I looked at the Godolphin record at this time of year in these races and their runners that had under 4 previous runs
were 0-21 and thats a worry. Overall you would have to argue that at the very least SIROCCO BREEZE has a lot to prove. Only two past winners came from 6f or less and they were group runners suggesting DABBERS RIDGE has it to do from a 6f handicap and he flopped in this last year as well. I wouldnt want MR AVIATOR dropping 3f and
coming here well beaten last time with just 1 run since July. The veteran WELSH EMPEROR is getting older and slower but you cant knock his 5 length defeat in a French Group 1 last time and he is the highest rated horse in the race. RED ALERT DAY has issues absent 107 days and
none of the past winners had an absence like that. We have handicappers win but all 4 that did achieved a lot more than KAY GEE BE did last time. I dont think AEROPLANE and PROTECTOR did enough in the same Listed race at Redcar las time. I would shortlist WELSH EMPEROR - I would also shortlist PLUM PUDDING as he has the same profile as the
2002 winners and came from the same 7f handicap last week at Newmarket. I feel the bet here is an each way bet on PLUM PUDDING


DONCASTER 5:15

PERTEMPS "HANDS AND HEELS" APPRENTICE HANDICAP (C4) (3yo,0-85) 7f

9/2 Always A Rock, 5/1 Quest For Success, 6/1 Internationaldebut, Kiwi Bay, 13/2 Astrodonna, 8/1 Carleton, 10/1 Rubirosa, 12/1 I Confess,Mey Blossom, Pavershooz, 16/1 Captain Macarry.

* This is an Apprentice Handicap over 7f
* Doncaster has had 14 renewals of this race
* There has been 48 similar races run at this time of year for all jockeys
* CARLETON - RUBIROSA have 10 + week absences
* Males that are absent 7 weeks or more are 0-33 in this race
* Horses with 7+ runs like these with that absence were 0-40
* I would oppose CARLETON and RUBIROSA
* No winner came from a Claimer as I CONFESS does
* Horses that did that had a 1-54 record in 48 races and none won this
* Male horses coming from 6f races had a 1-52 record in this race
* If you take all similar handicaps for 3 year olds in October for all jockeys
* Males that come from 6f races had a poor 2-139 record
* None were as inexperienced as CAPTAIN MACARRY
* None had under 8 runs that year or had a month or more absence
* CARLETON - RUBIROSA - CAPTAIN MACARRY fail that
* PAVERSHOOZ - QUEST FOR SUCCESS also fail that
* All 59 that came from all aged handicaps over 6f lost
* RUBIROSA - CAPTAIN MACARRY - QUEST FOR SUCCESS fail that
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths or more dont score well
* Fillies that lost by 10 + lengths last time were just 3-144
* With 13 or more runs (0-51) and a run within 2 weeks (0-44)
* MEY BLOSSOM fails that
* Fillies in this race that came from 3yo handicaps were 0-36 in this race
* ASTRODONNA has that to overcome
* I would shortlist the following horses
* KIWI BAY - INTERNATIONALDEBUT - ALWAYS A ROCK
* Have to be a bit wary of ALWAYS A ROCK
* Not sure this is his best trip and he hasnt been running that well
* You also have the doubt that the blinkers wont work again
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT wouldnt be my first choice
* Dont like his draw much and no past winner had Group form
* KIWI BAY looks the strongest selection to me
* Well drawn and running well KIWI BAY looks the one

**********************************************
**********************************************

N E W B U R Y

I want to avoid most of Newbury today. Only the last race makes any betting appeal. I dont want to spend much time on the juvenile maidens or the big 2yo races as the angles in these races are not good enough to profit from. MONITOR CLOSELY would have to be the selection in the 1.10 race especially as I dont fancy King's Song but these short priced maidens in big fields are usually best placed in each way doubles and with unknown dangers it only takes one to lower his colours. I would expect him to just about win.

I would have to mention BLAZING BAILEY though in the 4.30 race. Despite being a 6 year old that has not run since April he has been over hurdles for several years now where he has Top Class staying form over hurdles including a placed effort on the Triumph Hurdle and the Stayers Hurdle and a Grade 1 hurdle win in Ireland. This is a horse that
hasnt seen the Flat since October 2005. Back then he was rated 62 on the Flat. His Hurdling Career has taken off and he hwas now reached a rating of 163 so he is now 101 lbs lower rated on the Flat and he has to be thrown in off 62. Normally an unscientific guide would be that you could expect to see a hurdles rating about 40-45lbs better than a
flat rating so for BLAZING BAILEY to have one 101 lbs higher does suggest that if he is anything near fit he must surely go close off a low Flat rating of 62. He looks a Handicap good thing to me and he may well end up as the best bet this weekend assuming he can run to form after an absence


NEWBURY 5:05

FRANK OSGOOD HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-100) 1m2f6y

4/1 Curzon Prince, 6/1 Gold Sovereign, 8/1 Cape Hawk, Cold Quest, Kinsya, Ramona Chase, 9/1 William Blake, 10/1 Closertobelieving, 11/1 La Sarrazine, 12/1 Redesignation, 14/1 Capable Guest, Wandle, 22/1 Throne Of Power, 50/1 Allanit.

* This is a 10f handicap over a Mile for 0-99 rated horses
* There has been 14 renewals of this race
* There has been 46 similar races at other tracks

In this race GOLD SOVEREIGN - CAPE HAWK - CURZON PRINCE
all come from 8f races and they take out a large section of the market. In the 14 renewals of this race horses that came from 8f or less had a woeful 0-36 record. I looked at 46 other races in October and November elsewhere and found that 8f runners up in trip had a worrying 1-105 record. Even if you look at September as well and spread the search to an extra month the inescapable conclusion is that horses up in trip have horrible records.

LA SARRAZINE is a 3 year old filly and all 17 of those lost in this race and as she is the only filly I wouldnt want her. Horses aged 3 are fine in this race but they dont score well when coming from all aged handicaps and have a 1-45 record. I looked at the 46 other races to see how 3 year olds that came from all aged handicaps got on. They had a poor record and when they came from Class 2 or Class 3 handicaps they were 1-81. RAMONA CHASE fails that and he has also past Group form something no past winner had. REDESIGNATION - THRONE OR POWER and WILLIAM BLAKE also fail that. I think ALLANIT is outclassed.

I would have to oppose WANDLE as he hasnt run in 492 days but I have found 1 winner that did the same and that also had 4 runs as he does and I would respect him if the money came for him but he isnt the selection.

CAPABLE GUEST is fine statistically but hard to read and by far the most exposed and oldest horse in the race. Its been a few years since we had a winner of this race as exposed as him and horses aged 6 or more have only
won this race once (1-38) and that was a long time ago.

SHORTLIST

COOL QUEST has had just 1 race this season. Thats my concern with him. Horses with 1 run this season havent won this race yet (0-11). I looked at the 46 similar races and found a couple that did it but they were maiden winners and all 19 that came via handicaps lost. He is a lightly raced 4 year old and hard to judge. Had he been more exposed I would have kicked him out completely but being lightly raced he gets a lot more credit much as he
may need more runs and much as he is up in class after a good Bath 2nd on his first run in 14 months.

I have to shortlist CLOSERTOBELIEVING as he has an identical profile to the 2000 winner Bonaguil and even finished the same 3rd place in the same Newmarket 3yo handicap that Bonaguil was 3rd in before winning this race. KINSYA would also have to be shortlisted. He has been running himself fit all year whilst dropping down the ratings and although held on his last run at Bath by Cool Quest he was impeded and flew late at the end of the race and wasnt given a great ride.

SELECTION - CLOSERTOBELIEVING
SAVER - KINSYA

**********************************************
**********************************************


N A T I O N A L H U N T


AINTREE 1.05

6/4 Rippling Ring, 8/1 Dishdasha, 10/1 Dunaskin, French Opera, Khachaturian, 14/1 Ellerslie Tom, Mr Jack Daniells, Pearl King, Zanir, 20/1 Culcabock, Folk Tune, 25/1 Divine Gift, Freeloader, Soubriquet, 33/1 Nevertika, Sinatas.

This is a 17f handicap hurdle with 3 past renewals. Not sure about RIPPLING RING. He has 2 runs and comes from a Grade 1 hurdle when 5th in last years Sun Alliance. I looked at every Class 2-Class 3 Handicap Hurdle in October and November for horses that came from Graded Hurdles. I found that when they had under 4 career starts they had a 0-18 record. RIPPLING RING could just be a bit on the
inexperienced side and carrying 11st 12lbs here wont be easy. All things considered at the price which is now odds on I would oppose RIPPLING RING. I would prefer an each way alternative at far better odds and FRENCH OPERA looks like he fits the bill each way.

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHEPSTOW 1.20

7/2 Tarablaze, 4/1 Diablo, 6/1 Gray Mountain, 13/2 Khachaturian, 7/1 Junior, 9/1 Hell´s Bay, 10/1 Winged D´Argent, 14/1 No Panic, 16/1 Chevy To The Levy, 20/1 Possol.

Tough race to Finalise as many of these are trying something that no past winner has done - and as this is the only similar class race at this time of year you can not cross reference whether its likely to be an advantage or not. Statistically I should really oppose the
seasonal debutants but I think thats unsafe and dont trust my stats there. I think we are looking at any one of 5 runners in this race. Junior - Tarablaze - Diablo - Gray Mountain and Khachaturian. I dont want to select TARABLAZE but I cant argue against him statistically as once raced winners have won this twice recently so that could be a mistake. JUNIOR has an obvious chance on his form last spring but the 205 day absence wont be easy to overcome. We have had a seasonal debutant win this race but he
was top class and this track takes no prisoners with debutants In the end I just came down on the fitter GRAY MOUNTAIN each way around 11/2. He may find something flashier beating him but 3 winning runs this year sets a fair standard and he may be a bit of value against inexperienced and potentially unfit rivals.

**********************************************
**********************************************

AINTREE 1.35

10/11 Tatenen, 2/1 Striking Article, 5/1 Dreamy Gent,
16/1 The Duke´s Speech, 20/1 Orpen Wide.

TATENEN is a 4yo in a Listed Class Novice Chase. Not that many of these races around. The only 4 year old in theis race came 2nd. I think the record is good overall - the Paul Nicholls 4 year old record is exceptional- but thats in lower grade races and at this level its unclear
how 4 year olds do as the sample sizes are so low. My gut feeling and the early evidence is that the allowance they get is valuable and 4 year olds have to be seen in a positive light. I would think TATENEN is the most likely winner but I wouldnt be interested at odds on

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHEPSTOW 1.50

5/2 Lead On, 5/1 Theatre Girl, 11/2 Just Amazing, 7/1 King Caine, 15/2 Abstract Art, Irish Legend, 9/1 Amber Brook, Blaeberry, 20/1 Aimigayle.

* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 9 renewals of this race
* This race has been dominated by the following
* Seasonal Debutants have by far the best record
* Horses with under 20 runs dominate
* Horses aged 7 or under have won every renewal
* Horses with Topweight have struggled as
* I wouldnt want BLAEBERRY - IRISH LEGEND on those trends
* KING CAINE - AIMIGAYLE also fail to fit the ideal profile
* THEATRE GIRL is overlooked coming from a Novice Hurdle
* Horses that did that have a 1-20 record and none were female like her
* ABSTRACT ART also comes from a Novice Hurdle
* JUST AMAZING won a handicap hurdle last year off 120
* He was put up to 133 for this debut and others may be better treated
* Seasonal debutants that came from handicap hurdles werent brilliant
* AMBER BROOK also does that and no mare has won this yet
* LEAD ON is strong statistically despite coming from a Graded Chase
* The last 3 winners came from chases and 3 recent winners from Graded ones
* LEAD ON looks to have the strongest profile to me

**********************************************
**********************************************

STRATFORD 2.00

2/1 Sound Accord, 3/1 Commemoration Day, 4/1 The Hairy Mutt, 9/2 Boomerang, 13/2 Or Sing About, 33/1 Pepito Collonges.

I would probably go with SOUND ACCORD as he is going
chasing after running in Grade 1 Novice Hurdles. The full
record since 1996 of these horses is brilliant. Horses aged 7 or more that had 5 or more runs like SOUND ACCORD had a 19-33 record on their Chase debuts when coming from Grade one hurdles. SOUND ACCORD would be the strongest runner statistically.

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHEPSTOW 2.20

6/4 Big Fella Thanks, Wichita Lineman, 5/1 Kornati Kid,
7/1 West End Rocker, 25/1 Turbulance.

This is a 3m Beginners Chase. Paul, Nicholls has a brilliant record in these races at Chepstow at this time of year. When he sends handicap hurdlers to these races its 4-4 at the moment so BIG FELLA THANKS clearly has a huge chance but whilst he has far more improvement than WICHITA LINEMAN that horse comes from a Grade 1 hurdle and has achieved far more over hurdles. It wont be easy to split these at all on their chase debuts. You certainly cant statistically. I would have thought this pair have more class than the likes of KORNATI KID and WEST END ROCKER and TURBULANCE. Wouldnt oppose the front 2 in the market. Which of them jumps best should win. Force me to choose and I would suggest BIG FELLA THANKS is the safer choice.

**********************************************
**********************************************

STRATFORD 2.30

7/2 Coconut Beach, 6/1 Petrosian, 13/2 Pips Assertive Way,
7/1 Coronado´s Gold, 8/1 Cordage, 10/1 Command Marshal,
14/1 Beths Choice, Mischief Man, Star Tenor, 16/1 Chalice Welcome, 33/1 Danish Monarch, Goodwood Spirit.

Stratford have had 24 of these selling hurdles in October. The 24 races suggest the following. They demand that we should have a horse with at least 4 career starts. They suggest avoid horses with 1 run this season. You dont want a horse that lost by 30 + lengths last time and you dont
want a horse that hasnt won over hurdles unless it has 4-8 runs. This leaves a shortlist of 5 "ideal types" and these are as follows - Coconut Beach Coronado´s Gold -Command Marshal - Mischief Man -Chalice Welcome.

**********************************************
**********************************************

AINTREE 2.40

8/11 Black Jacari, 3/1 Nampour, 6/1 Dubai Baileys,
10/1 Fujin Dancer, 20/1 When Yer Ready.

Juvenile Hurdle. No compelling trends. I would guess NAMPOUR. Has to be a guess but he is better value than the favourite - His trainer has a better record in these races then either the trainers of Black Jacari or Dubai Baileys and his sire has at least bred a National Hunt winner
unlike Black Jacari's. NAMPOUR solely on value and shallow reasons.

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHEPSTOW 2.50

5/2 Forest Pennant, 9/2 Mister Gloss, 11/2 Mr Pointment,
13/2 Irish Raptor, 17/2 Buena Vista, 12/1 Hills Of Aran,
The Very Man, 14/1 Warpath, 16/1 Mossville, To Arms,
20/1 Important Business, 40/1 Jug Of Punch.

This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle with 9 renewals. None of the 9 winners came from 20f or shorter so I would really need to oppose WARPATH and THE VERY MAN as they come from 16f and have to step up 8f in distance. Statistically you want a light weight. In terms of Weight in this race this is not a track to be carrying big weights. Some high class horses have failed to win this race with large weights. In 9 renewals no horse carried 11st 3lbs or more. All 18 that tried failed. Bearing in mind that FOREST PENNANT does have 11st 7lbs he also has a 5lbs claimer on board and you could give him the benefit of the doubt considering he is a Paul Nicholls horse. I couldnt have MR POINTMENT with the killer weight he has or BUENA VISTA with 11st 10lbs. I am happy to oppose HILLS OF ARAN as he has a large weight and looks exposed and not well handicapped. JUG OF PUNCH looks outclassed. TO ARMS has only had 2 hurdle starts and I dont think he has the experience. Several of these
like MISTER GLOSS and IRISH RAPTOR come from Chases and only one past winner did that. I am taking out MISTER GLOSS as he has been running in Novice Chases this year. I cant find a horse that won a similar race doing that. I want IRISH RAPTOR on my side as he is very well handicapped over hurdles and racing off a 26lbs lower mark than his chase rating. I think I have to shortlist 4 horses in this race

FOREST PENNANT
IRISH RAPTOR
MOSSVILLE
IMPORTANT BUSINESS

I would think there are too many powerful stables and prospects for MOSSVILLE to come out on top . IMPORTANT BUSINESS has yet to win over hurdles and as he was beaten in a Class 4 handicap last time I wont select him to win a Class 2 handicap. I dont see how you can escape the conclusion that FOREST PENNANT has to go close. I see
him as a saver with my main bet on IRISH RAPTOR

SELECTION - IRISH RAPTOR
SAVER - FOREST PENNANT

**********************************************
**********************************************

AINTREE 3.15

10/11 American Trilogy, 8/1 Hernando Royal, 10/1 Dzesmin,
12/1 Make Haste, Princeful, Risk, Best Horse, , 20/1 Room At The Top, 25/1 Desert Storm, Masterofceremonies, Moody Tunes, Sandy´s Legend, 33/1 Giant Star,

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle with a 9 year history. Horses that had run this season like Morning Sunshine - Safari Journey - Berkeley Castle - Sea Storm and others have a 0-50 record. The rest is guesswork with so many unraced horses. AMERICAN TRILOGY is an unraced 4yo and they have a 2-54 record in this race. Paul Nicholls doesnt do well
with unraced 4 year olds in these races but this was a decent flat type. Struggling to see what you can oppose him with. I would have to go with AMERICAN TRILOGY.


**********************************************
**********************************************

CHEPSTOW 4.35

2/1 Pride Of Dulcote, 4/1 Little Josh, 9/2 Minella Four Star, 10/1 Ballinderry Park, Pilgrims Lane, 16/1 De Welsh Wizzard, Martys Mission, Three Thieves, Time To Panic, 20/1 Man Of The Moment, 25/1 Lord Shark, The Good Doctor, 33/1 Marias Rock, Mooncoin Man, 40/1 Baker´s Girl, Kentford Mist.

This is a 3m Maiden Hurdle. We have about 48 of these races
at this time of year. This is wide open. I would be against the horses that have run in Bumpers this season. No problems with them if they are seasonal debutants but they rarely win if they have ran over them this year so LITTLE JOSH and PILGRIMS LANE are both rejected. Unraced horses are fine. I would far rather bet the unraced MINELLA FOUR STAR than the unraced BALLINDERRY PARK as he is from a less powerful stable and may not stay as he is a French Bred. Alan King has run two unraced horses in the 48 races and Both won so MINELLA FOUR STAR. I have no problems with PRIDE OF DULCOTE and he would be the alternative selection if MINELLA FOUR STAR was weak in
the market but as things stand I would take a chance with Alan King and his unraced MINELLA FOUR STAR.

**********************************************
*********************************************