Saturday October 4th

No Account Bet

Today's Selection

Redcar 4.10

PACKERS HILL 5/1 (Win Bet)

EVELITH REGENT 6/1 (Saver)


I am just having one selection today. I was tempted
by Cloudy Start who should win the opener at Redcar
but He is odds on and I will resist the urge to select
him. I could have gone with Prince Kalamoun who is
my Cambridgeshire horse. Like Todays selections he
is also an Alan Swinbank horse. Swinbank may have
a very good day today. I have selected his horse in
the 5.20pm at 10/1 and his Cambridgeshire horse and
both PACKERS HILL and EVELITH REGENT are also Alan
Swinbank runners. May just be a day for a small multiple
of his runners.

This is as hard a Saturday as I can remember. Big fields.
Rain coming down soon and heavily but we dont know
when its coming or if it will be too late for Racing. We
had a good winner yesterday and I am loathe to give
them anything back today. I fancy all the Swinbank
horses and I have gone with the Seller at Redcar as
the race I think he is most likely to win. I prefer the look of PACKERS HILL but I would want the saver on his
other runner. He has a brilliant record at Redcar in these
selling races and I just think this is my best option today.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Its been a quiet week and mainly betting big priced horses
so it was needed when LOUPHOLE won yesterday as the
only selection. He did it vey well and that was an important bit of confidence boosting. Some of these huge fields - and there are plenty of these today just serve to sap confidence and money and stop you looking at other races.

Pretty tough Saturday today with big fields dominant. The
message has one race from FONTWELL at 3.25pm. I take
the view that NEWMARKET is really not worth going to
war with apart from perhaps the 5pm race and there is a big
preview on that. REDCAR gets most time today. We have
done the Cambridgeshire already. My final selections for the race are these -

Cambridgeshire Selection - PRINCE KALADOUN 10/1
Cambridgeshire Saver - YADREE 11/1


T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


REDCAR 1.25

6/4 Cloudy Start, 5/1 Taazur, 6/1 Battle Royal, 7/1 Millway Beach, 12/1 Blue Noodles, Duke Of Normandy, Hill Cross, Threestepstoheaven, 16/1 Cause For Applause, Stanstill, 25/1 Petsas Pleasure, 33/1 Vita Mia, 66/1 Amba, Berriedale, 200/1 Ennovy.

Henry Cecil has a strong runner in CLOUDY START with 3 runs
who I cant fault statistically. I wouldnt want TAAZUR myself as he comes from a Nursery. We have seen 398 of these maidens at this time of year. Only 5 came from Nurseries. Only 1 of the 398 came from Nurseries when having 5 + career starts and none came from 7f nurseries and no Male horse managed it. You would think rated 81 he looked solid each way but as Nursery horses dont do
that well I would pass him up. BATTLE ROYAL is opposed as
well. He has had 1 career start when running in an 8f maiden when beaten 12 lengths. I looked at horses that had the same record in the 398 races and found a record of 1 winner from 90 that tried and that puts me off. THREESTEPSTOHEAVEN has 3 runs and comes here well beaten last time and I cant find a winner in 398 races that had
his profile but there has been money for him and thats interesting. Most likely winner has to be CLOUDY START and I think he will win. If there was good money for THREESTEPSTOHEAVEN later and you would rather bet at bigger prices I think he has a reasonable each way chance but I do think CLOUDY START will win this race. He was beaten by a very well regarded horse last time out and was
unlucky to run into him. I think CLOUDY START is unlikely to find one that beats him.

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REDCAR 1.55

3/1 Hail Promenader, 11/2 Striker Torres, 6/1 Citizenship, 13/2 Sydney Cove, 12/1 Le Reve Royal, Senor Berti, 16/1 Mister Bombastic, 25/1 Alacity, 33/1 Ask Dan, Bollin Judith, Caress The Soul, Miss Cameo, 66/1 Strevelyn,

This is division 2 of the opening race. I could not bet Barry Hill's HAIL PROMENADER as he comes from a 5f race to a 7f race. At this time of year there has been 398 similar maidens. I looked at all horses that came from 5f races. None had 3 or more runs as he has. Colts and Geldings thatn tried it had a 1-97 record in 398 races and
that puts me off him. STRIKER TORRES has to be a big positive. Owned by Reg Bond he fetched 100k at the April Sales and watch the market with him. I also give CITIZENSHIP a strong chance as he ran better than it looks last time and looks like he has ability. I also respect the unraced Mark Johnston horse SYDNEY COVE. The trainer is 1-1 with his unraced horses at Redcar. Its a race for
watching the market. My preference now is STRIKER TORRESS
each way around 5/1.

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It would be criminal to waste any time on the 25 runner handicap at 2.25pm. It looks impossible and its a mess statistically as its been a race thats upgraded from class 5 to class 2 over the years. All my best angles would be about horses up in trip but astonishingly none
of the 25 runners do that. The Draws also a big mystery - I would guess low if forced to choose but this is a race I should avoid.


REDCAR 3:00 - TOTESCOOP6 TWO-YEAR-OLD TROPHY (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

4/1 Total Gallery, 11/2 Frognal, Zuzu, 10/1 Anglezarke,
12/1 Brae Hill, Khor Dubai, 14/1 Viva Ronaldo, Wave Aside, 16/1 Deadly Secret, 20/1 Caranbola, Prime Mood, 25/1 Favourite Girl, Harwalla, Polish Pride, Quanah Parker, Salsa Star, 33/1 White Shift, 40/1 Captain Ellis, Cerito, Olynard, 50/1 Burning Flute, 66/1 Olympic Dream, She´s A Shaw Thing.

* The Redcar Trophy is a 2 year old Listed race
* Redcar has had 18 renewals of this race
* Whats happened here recently is simple to explain
* The first 10 renewals were dominated by fillies
* Then there was a subtle rule change in 1999
* Since 2000 Fillies suddely had a 0-46 record
* Male horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I think you have to favour Males at the moment
* Horses that had 9 or more career starts were 0-44
* Caranbola - Favourite Girl - Polish Pride fail that
* Males like WAVE ASIDE with 2 runs or less are 0-45
* Horses coming from 2yo maidens have a poor 1-88 record
* FROGNAL - PRIME MOOD both fail that
* So to do less fancied Captain Ellis - Quanah Parker - Wave Aside
* Horses absent over a month do not score well
* When they didnt win last time with that absence they were 0-94
* Olympic Dream - Burning Flute -She´s A Shaw Thing fail that
* Colts with under 4 runs have a 1-72 record
* Olynard fails that and is also the youngest horse
* Males that lost by 10+ lengths last time were 0-52
* Deadly Secret -Harwalla both fail that
* Horses that came from handicaps won 4 of the 18 renewals
* None came from a 5f Nursery like Cerito
* Horses beaten in Nurseries were 0-86
* Maidens have a poor 1-85 record
* Salsa Star is added to the negatives list
* I dont want a filly like White Shift with 8 run
* I will take on ZUZU as a filly absent 7 weeks
* The 1995 winner did do the same but Males have dominated recently
* I Cant reduce this beyond 4 runners

SHORTLIST

VIVA RONALDO - KHOR DUBAI - BRAE HILL - TOTAL GALLERY

* TOTAL GALLERY comes from the same race as the 1999- 2001 winners
* VIVA RONALDO has done nothing wrong and looks solid
* BRAE HILL comes from the same race and is fine
* KHOR DUBAI comes from the Mill Reef Stakes
* The 1998-2005 winners did the same

SELECTION - Marginal preference for VIVA RONALDO 16/1

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FONTWELL 3:25 - PRICEWATERHOUSE WATERAID NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m4f

7/4 Phoenix Des Mottes, 5/2 Postmaster, 8/1 Drizzi, 9/1 Miss Carroll,10/1 Muraco, 12/1 Marsh Court, Okoum, Sandy Denny, 20/1 Man Of The Moment, 25/1 Quartz Du Montceau, Sironi, 66/1 Pacific Ocean, 100/1 Captain Sirus.

* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f
* There has been 367 similar races between 19f and 21f
* I see MISS CARROLL is a Mare coming from a Bumper
* Thats something I do not like at all
* I checked the record out in 367 races and it was 3-83
* However when having under 4 runs it was 0-65
* When racing this season it became a 0-20 record
* When not winning last time out it became a 0-77 record
* When the horse hasnt won before the record was 0-73
* The only mares that did it were seasonal debutant winners (3-6)
* MISS CARROL fails all the above and is rejected
* SANDY DENNY is out as another maiden mare from a bumper
* I want to oppose DRIZZI as an unraced 7 year old
* These types can and do win but they dont score well
* In 367 races unraced 7 year olds were 4-111
* None were claimer ridden though and she's was modest on the flat
* I am going to take on MURACO as he is by Bertollini
* This sire hasnt yet had a 12f winner on the flat
* Not sure if he will get a 2m 4f runner over hurdles
* His hurdles record is 2-55 with his offspring but none at 18f + yet
* There is a doubt and she wouldnt appeal much anyway
* 4 year old stepping up 4f with just 2 career runs
* I dont see the case for MARSH COURT and shes rejected
* POSTMASTER comes from a handicap hurdle
* He is rated 108 and the issue is if thats enough
* POSTMASTER is not a horse I can go with
* 15 of the 367 winners came from handicaps
* Only 3 of the 15 winners did it from 2 mile handicaps
* Only 1 of the 367 winners did it with under 7 career starts
* Whilst I have found 1 winner like him I have other reservations
* He was bottomweight in that handicap hurdle
* 14 days earlier he started 66/1 for a Claiming hurdle
* That has to be a big worry and can he have that much class ?
* He was claimed for £8k that day and surely he has limitations
* OKOUM is an unraced Brendan Powell runner
* I dont know much about him at all and he is a mystery
* There has been some money for him and he is respected
* PHOENIX DES MOTTES has run once - this year - and won
* In 367 races horses that did that were 11-31 a 35% strike rate
* PHOENIX DES MOTTES escapes a penalty for that win
* I would see OKOUM more as saver material
* PHOENIX DES MOTTES would have to be my selection

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REDCAR 4.10

11/2 King Of The Moors, 6/1 It´s A Dream, 13/2 Evelith Regent, Packers Hill, 7/1 Enderby Light, 10/1 Distant Rock, Lady Valentino, 12/1 Jafra, 14/1 Kayflaa, Lujano, Mister Fizzbomb, 25/1 Roman History, 50/1 Recoil, 150/1 Sunset Resort.

Trappy 10f selling race. We have had 39 races like this at this time of year. I would take out JAFRA as he has far longer off the track than every other horse and 3 year olds with absences are poor. LUJANO comes from 7f and
horses doing that are 0-42 in these races. KAYFLAA is out as he comes from an 8f race and horses that did that with under 8 runs this year were very weak. ENJDERBY LIGHT is a 3 year old with 4 runs. Thats a bad profile and only
1 winner had under 4 runs and he also has to come from 12f and a 3yo handicap and no horse as lightly raced as that did either. Mister Fizzbomb is not in good enough form. Roman History looks badly weighted today. The Draw may play
a part in this. Since 2005 Redcar have had 44 races at this trip that had fields of 10 or more. In these 44 races horses drawn 1 or 2 had a poor 1-80 record and I
would not want to be drawn that low so ITS A DREAM who has stall one is respected but rejected. You want a decent last run. In the 39 races I looked at horses that lost by 10 lengths or more last time out. When these horses had
13 or more career starts they had an awful 1-124 record. That would worry me about KING OF THE MOORS and MISTER FIZZBOMB. There are 4 horses left. I have no problems with LADY VALENTINO or DISTANT ROCK both fillies but the two I think have the most sold chances are these -

EVELITH REGENT - PACKERS HILL

Both are trained by Alan Swinbank. Hard to split them but
Video Analysis just steers me towards PACKERS HILL.

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NEWMARKET 5:00 TOTESWINGER HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-100) 7f

7/2 Golden Desert, 5/1 Slugger O´Toole, 9/1 Lodi, Plum Pudding, 10/1 Swift Gift, 11/1 Jeninsky, Masai Moon, 12/1 Dingaan, Flipando, Thebes, 14/1 Kafuu, 16/1 King´s Bastion, Sir Xaar, Somnus, 18/1 Orchard Supreme, 25/1 Countdown, 40/1 Wasp.

* This is a 0-96 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 44 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 138 similar races at other tracks
* Horses that came from 6f races struggled
* In 46 Newmarket races they had a poor record
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs coming from 6f were 0-81
* DINGAAN - MASAI MOON both fail that
* I would also ignore THEBES coming from 6f
* In 138 other races horses coming from 6f also did badly
* Only 4 of the 138 winners were exposed from 6f (4-233)
* I would be quite confident in opposing the 6f horses
* I have to be against the 5f runners like WASP absent 283 days
* SOMNUS is easy to discount aged 8 with 2 runs this year
* No horse his age won any of Newmarkets 44 races
* JENINSKY is a 3 year old filly and the only filly in the race
* In 138 similar races 3 year old fillies are 2-55
* With 7 or more runs these fillies had a 0-40 record
* SWIFT GIFT is a 3yo absent 112 days
* Horses aged 3 absent 7 weeks or more struggled
* They were just 1-65 since 1994
* He also looks a little inexperienced to defy that absence
* SIR XAAR was 2nd in this race last year
* He had a better draw last year and hasnt been so lucky this year
* He has a more recent run last year with a 7 day break
* This year he has been absent 36 days and has more weight
* As an exposed former Group class runner he isnt for me
* Exposed horses that had run in Group class before were 1-48 in this
* SIR XAAR's absence also hurts his chance
* KAFUU was favourite for this race last year
* I made him a big negative last year and he came 8th
* He had just 1 career start and came from 6f last year
* Beaten 3.5 lengths last year he would have a great chance
* That said I dont think he is the same horse
* He had issues with a banded substance since
* He has dowgraded stables since last years race
* He has now had cheekpieces added suggesting complications
* He found his level winning a class 4 0-85 in July
* I dont think he is this class and he is regressive
* He did not run well last time at Chester beaten 11 lengths
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time had poor records
* In 138 races exposed horses losing by 10 +lengths last time were 3-234
* They were just 1-87 in Newmarkets 44 races
* ORCHARD SUPREME fails that and looks hard to fancy
* ORCHARD SUPREME also drops from 9f
* ORCHARD SUPREME has also had just 1 run since July
* PLUM PUDDING is also an exposed horse with a big defeat last time
* PLUM PUDDING also has 70 days off and a career high mark
* COUNTDOWN is also an exposed horse well beaten last time
* KINGS BASTION is acceptable statistically
* He did run a little flat last time and he wants rain
* He could pop up but he didnt do enough for me last time
* FLIPANDO comes from Ascot last week
* He was badly drawn and missed the break that day
* Statistically I like him and dont have any reason why he wont win
* I just feel he didnt do enough last week despite his missed break
* I am also conscious this trip may just be on the short side
* Since 2004 he has run 8 times at 7f and has not placed in any of them
* Would have considered him at a Mile but not at 7f

SHORTLIST

SLUGGER O'TOOLE - GOLDEN DESERT -LODI

* I thought LODI had a strong chance
* He makes the shortlist but wouldnt be my selection
* He hasnt met an older horse yet
* He is a bit exposed for a 3yo handicapper
* His type do win claimer ridden and Tongue strap I am passing
* SLUGGER O'TOOLE is fine statistically
* He won well last time in his own age group on soft ground
* His issues may be the ground and just 1 run since July
* GOLDEN DESERT has a very solid profile
* He ran well at Ascot last time winning the race on the wrong side

SELECTION - GOLDEN DESERT

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REDCAR 5:20 - RACING HERE FRIDAY 17TH OCTOBER HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-75) 1m2f

6/1 Man Of Gwent, 13/2 Straight Sets, 7/1 Applaude, Bavarian Nordic, 8/1 Moonstreaker, 9/1 Maria Di Scozia, 10/1 Isent She Rich, 12/1 Karmest, Tsaroxy, 14/1 Elk Trail, Highland Love, 20/1 Jamieson Gold, My Paris, Prince Evelith, 33/1 Masterofceremonies.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-75
* Redcar has had 11 renewals of this race
* There has been 147 similar races run elsewhere at this time of year
* In this race horses that came from 8f races or shorter were 0-38
* I would not insist on that if they have done it elsewhere
* MY PARIS comes from an 8f race
* In 147 races horses aged 7 or more doing that were 0-47
* You can also argue this isnt his best trip
* Seasonal debutants won 3 of the 147 races
* Those that had 9 + runs though were 0-44
* PRINCE EVELITH fails that absent 436 days
* None come via maidens like MASTEROFCEREMONIES
* KARMEST is hard to fancy as a filly absent 121 days
* No filly defied an absence like that and she is on a career high mark
* ISENT SHE RICH was trained in England as a juvenile
* She is now trained in Ireland as a 3yo
* She is hard to read coming from Ireland
* She has run just once since July though which is a worry
* TSAROXY has run just once since May
* He will need more runs at his age I would imagine
* HIGHLAND LOVE has a weak profile
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths in 3yo handicaps were 1-96
* No horse from 3yo handicaps that had 9 + runs as he has ...
* Defied that absence or was beaten that far last time
* I dont want JAMIESON GOLD
* He is an exposed horse from 8f well beaten last time
* I would be happy to oppose all the above horses
* There remains these 7 runners remaining
* Man Of Gwent - Straight Sets -Applaude -Bavarian Nordic -
* Moonstreaker -Maria Di Scozia -Elk Trail
* STRAIGHT SETS comes from an 8f race
* She is also a filly with just 4 runs
* Fillies that had under 5 career starts were 2-57
* None were aged 4 or more like STRAIGHT SETS
* In 147 races plenty of older fillies came from 8f races
* None had under 9 career starts though
* MARIA DE SCOZIA has a lot to do in this race
* She is a 3yo filly that hasnt run in 84 days
* She also has to drop down from 14f to a 10f race
* ELK TRAIL is a 3 year old dropping down from 12f
* 3 of the 147 winners did the same
* He also had a months absence which wont be easier
* I found 1 horses that dropped from 12f with his profile but that was a filly
* APPLAUDE is a 3yo from a 3yo handicap with under 7 runs
* In 147 races horses with that profile were 3-44
* I would give him a chance
* BAVARIAN NORDIC - MOONSTREAKER were 1st and 2nd last time
* They came from the same Redcar handicap last time
* Both are strong statistically and could go well
* I dont see anything wrong with MAN OF GWENT

SELECTION - APPLAUDE

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