Monday June 9th

No Account Bet

Starting the week off with an evening message and a 10 race E Mail for tonights two Flat cards. Tomorrow's message will be a bit late towards 2pm. I will try and get that sent quicker but felt it fair to pre warn you.

Tonights Business is pretty straight forward and plenty to say. Biggest problem tonight is promoting my best bets to the top of the message as I like a lot of them and there is not a great deal between them and the message that one single outstanding horse over the others so it could
easily be a day where the winners are not the ones I highlight as selections.

Tonight's 3 Selections

Windsor 7.00 Al Scaribh
Pontefract 6.50 - Flying Lady
Each Way Double


Pontefract 8.20
Chantilly Tiffany
Each Way Bet 10/1


Windsor 7.30
Aegean Prince 6/1

Busy Monday with 3 selections. All are just "run of the mill" message mentions and worth normal stakes. Just a day that lacked one single selection that towered over all others. Having a few connection issues at the moment. Doesnt seem a big problem but if you get duplicate
messages or a message is a few minutes late thats likely to be why.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

I Went into Saturday with low expectations to be honest but was very pleased to end the day in profit. WAIT FOR THE WILL only managed to dead heat so there was a loss of about half your stakes on him. Half of me feels injustice that he beat everything bar a 66/1 no hoper and the other half of me relieved as I thought he had lost the photo. The other bet RUNAROUND SUE won at decent odds. Many of you will have taken all sorts of prices about her but she won at odds that were good enough to make it a pleasant day overall.

A Couple of things have happened recently. The Duchess went to a Clairvoyant the other day. Whilst I dont hold any great stock in such things and tend to view it sceptically the Clairvoyant told her that I would be Rich in July as I would have a Bet that would win me a life changing sum of money. She didnt say on what or
how but she was adamant I was due a serious win in July. This got me thinking and yesterday I had a sort of "Eureka" moment. There is an Ante Post Bet that
has hit me between the eyes. I wont make it an Account Bet as it is a Sports Bet and I know many of you think my sports beting advice is less than reliable. I will
remind you that Not many people were tipping the Master Roger Federer to win Wimbledon a few years ago at 11/4 before he won it for the first time in a bet I
described as the "Bet of the Year" on Christmas Day in 2003. I have had the same feeling I had back in 2003. I have decided that whilst the Clairvoyant is unlikely to
be anything else but a Hapless Guesser that I would try and combine both these incidents and do my best to give Fate a helping hand. I think I have a selection in July that Will win and this bet is currently 5/1. I am going to start betting him and including him in as many bets as I can in the next month. Come July 6th I am going to try and get that life Changing Ammount. The Ante Post selection is -

Wimbledon Tennis 2008

Rafael Nadal 5/1

He won the French yesterday beating Federer. Destroyed him really and whilst Federer is on his best surface at Wimbledon surely Nadal should not be a 5/1 chance to win this year. In last years Wimbledon Final Federer beat Nadal in 5 sets. However the game score was 26-26 and Nadal was injured in the final and pushed him as close as anyone could have done. This year Nadal looks stronger. Federer looks weaker and I think if they meet in the final its a 50-50 match. There are one or two others who might be able to win at Wimbledon but no more than one or two and 5/1 seems a huge price especially when you know he will not meet Federer until the final. I try very hard in messages Not to use the Vastly over-used word "Maximum" but I think Nadal is a Maximum Bet and a very Rare
sports selection from me.

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T O N I G H T S R A C I N G


PONTEFRACT 6:50 - BRIAN LEIGHTON RENAULT MAIDEN AUCTION FILLIES' STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) 6f

10/11 Maid For Music, 11/2 Common Diva, 7/1 On Offer, 8/1 Flying Lady, 10/1 Digit, 14/1 Accomplishment,
16/1 Betws Y Coed, Smoke Me A Kipper, 33/1 Abby Belle, Angela Tee, 66/1 Ishe Mac.

Pontefract starts off with a 6f Auction Race for 2 year old Fillies. The 12 year history of this races
does suggest that having a run is an advantage. Experienced horses (10-93) lead Unraced horses
(2-64) in a 10-2 record so far and I See some concerns about the unraced horses like FLYING LADY DIGIT , ACCOMPLISHMENT and others. Whilst the favourite MAID FOR MUSIC looks to have a strong chance she is a pretty short price. Tim Easterby has a strong record in this race with 3 previous wins and ON OFFER looks to have a reasonable e/w chance much as she is pretty weak in the market.
If she was stronger in the market tonight I would consider her each way but if she was 10/1 or more I wouldnt want to bet her and it may pay to overlook her. The Money horse has been FLYING LADY the unraced Mick Channon horse. She is clearly fancied and must be rated a big danger. Not my kind of race. If you gave me a free bet on the race I would try and do some burglary with an each way
double on FLYING LADY around 9/4 and AN SCARIBH in the 7pm at Windsor

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WINDSOR 7:00 - CANNON KIRK CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 1m3f135y

7/4 An Scaribh, 2/1 Sergeant Sharpe, 9/2 Kryptonite, 10/1 Pay The Grey, 14/1 Illusionary, Magnol, Never Sold Out, 20/1 Golddigging, 100/1 Howeﾴs Jack.

Statistically we are snookered as 3yo claimers do not get run at this time of year over this trip so there has not
been any similar races to draw conclusions from. The weights strongly suggest that the winner will come from
the top of the weights. I think there are a lot of horses in this race that you can argue against from a fitness
point of view such as ILLUSIONARY - NEVER SOLD OUT - GOLDDIGGING and MAGNOL. I think despite no
clear trends if you stay with the fitter horses and the more proven and capable horses you should find a horse
that has to go close. Overall that meant AN SCARIBH had the best profile. Whilst SERGEANT SHARPE came
out as the best horse at the weights I felt that AN SCARIBH had the stronger all round profile and had the
least concerns over fitness. The race to be looks an excellent each way double race and I think AN SCARIBH
in an each way double is the best option in this race just ahead of a win bet on AN SCARIBH .

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PONTEFRACT 7:20 - TONY BETHELL MEMORIAL HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 2m1f22y

4/1 At The Money, 9/2 Aphorism 13/2 Colwyn Bay, 7/1 Brave Bugsy, Thewhirlingdervish 10/1 Rock ﾴNﾴ Roller, 12/1 Great As Gold, Merrymaker, 20/1 Tribe, 25/1 Mt Desert.

Another one of Pontefract's infamous staying handicaps. There has now been 33 of these in June and since 1989 there has been 104 all year round. There are a few here that I want to oppose.

* In 104 Pontefract staying races since 1989 Fillies aged 4 interest me
* When 4 year old fillies have under 13 career starts they have a 0-33 record
* None of them won with under 4 runs that season
* APHORISM fails both the above trends
* I dislike APHORISM anyway with 1 run this year and 51 days absence
* ROCK 'N' ROLLER has to come from a 13f race to win this
* Only 1 of Junes 33 Pontefract winners did that
* In 104 Pontefract races all year round they also scored very badly
* In 104 races horses that came from 13f or less were just 3-193
* 4 year olds like ROCK 'N' ROLLER trying it were just 1-69
* Horses with over 8st that tried it were 1-137 and he fails that as well
* I dont want past winner and regular ponty stalwart GREAT AS GOLD
* This is a harder race than most he contested here and he isnt in great form
* I dont think MT DESERT will be fit enough to win this
* I dont think MERRYMAKER will win on this track and I dont like his trip rise
* TRIBE has a lot to prove in my opinion
* Thats the end of the Negatives and I think 4 horses dominate this
* AT THE MONEY - BRAVE BUGSY - COLWYN BAY - THEWHIRLINGDERVISH
* I would be worried about the ground for AT THE MONEY
* Marginal preference for BRAVE BUGSY whose Bath win has been franked
* Selection is BRAVE BUGSY with a saver on THEWHIRLINGDERVISH

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WINDSOR 7:30 - SEI INVESTMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 1m2f7y

13/8 Valrhona, 11/2 Aegean Prince, 7/1 Roodolph, 10/1 Krugerrand, Royal Jasra, 16/1 Know The Law, 33/1 Fantastic Morning.

* This is a 10 furlong all aged handicap
* There has been 19 similar races run at Windsor in June before
* Windsor has ran 84 of these races at any time of year before
* I did not want KRUGGERAND as a 9 year old
* Only 1 of Windsor's 84 handicaps went to a horse aged 8 or more
* I felt ROYAL JASRA was a bit too inexperienced with 4 runs
* None of Windsor's 19 races went to a horse with under 5 runs
* Older horses with under 5 runs did not have a great record in similar races
* Horses with similar profiles to ROYAL JASRA had a 1-30 record
* None also managed to drop in trip and I prefered others
* I did not want to be with the horses that had 1 run that season
* FANTASTIC MORNING and KNOW THE LAW fail that
* I can easily see the argument for VALRHONA in this race
* She ran well in a Class 2 Handicap at Ascot and drops into a 0-79 here
* Statistically VALRHONA is still short on experienced
* Since 1989 there has been 220 handicaps in June at 10f in Class 3-4-5
* In 220 handiaps Four Year Old Fillies like VALRGHONA are 15-224
* However with under 7 runs they have a 0-32 record
* VALRHONA has only 5 career starts so technically she is too inexperienced
* She also has to step up in trip and has a 30 day absence
* 4 year old fillies that stepped up from a Mile had a weak 1-49 record in 224 races
* That sole winner had far more experience as welll
* These are relevant issues but her class drop has to also be considered
* I do see some vulnerability in her chance notwithstanding her class drop
* I think the way to go in this race is to oppose the favourite
* Aegean Prince -Roodolph are all creditable options
* Considering all the issues I came down to AEGEAN PRINCE

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PONTEFRACT 7:50 - HARRATTS WAKEFIELD RENAULT HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-85) 1m2f6y

2/1 Missioner, 5/1 Formation, 6/1 Resounding Glory, 8/1 Merchant Of Dubai, 14/1 Bonjour Allure, 16/1 Burriscarra.

This is a 3yo handicap over 10 furlongs. Tough little race and I dont really have any great angles in the
race. June has seen 111 of these races and the trends dont offer much. MERCHANT OF DUBAI comes
from a 7f Nursery and the only few winners that did that were classier types and high weights . I didnt think MISSIONER came out that well either. He has only had 4 career starts and steps up from an 8f race. In the 111 similar races horses that came from maidens with over 3 career starts had a 0-33 record and whilst MISSIONER may win none of the 111 similar winners had his profile. I couldnt bet a filly with a massive absence like BONJOUR ALLURE or a filly hammered last time like BURRISCARRA. Given the choice I would try and get RESOUNDING GLORY beaten with only 7f Nursery form and a long absence
so this leaves FORMATION with the safest profiles. FORMATION is the strongest runner statistically

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WINDSOR 8:00 - SMITH & WILLIAMSON HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-80) 5f10y

2/1 Mullein, 11/4 Monsieur Reynard, 4/1 Another Socket, 5/1 Wise Melody, 8/1 Quaroma, 25/1 Barraland, Kalligal.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* Since 1990 there has been 124 of these races in June
* In 124 races fillies with under 4 races had a 0-30 record
* MULLEIN - QUAROMA are both fillies with under 4 runs
* QUAROMA is also weak as a filly from a 5f race and just 1 run this year
* Fillies coming from 5f races with 1 or 2 runs that year have a 3-98 record
* However they are 0-45 when having under 7 career starts
* ANOTHER SOCKET fails that as well
* Hard to see BARRALAND or KALLIGAL winning this
* I felt the best profile belonged to two runners
* WISE MELODY - MONSIEUR REYNARD
* I think both horses offer strong claims in this race
* I have liked MONSIEUR REYNARD twice now and he will win soon
* WISE MELODY May be a bit classier and has a strong chance as well
* WISE MELODY would be my choice at 6/1 with saver on Monsieur Reynard

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PONTEFRACT 8:20 - WEATHERBYS PIPALONG STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4y

5/2 Treat, 4/1 Fondled, 6/1 Flying Clarets, 11/1 Steam Cuisine, 12/1 Chantilly Tiffany,14/1 Kasumi, 16/1 Folly Lodge, 25/1 Impetious, 33/1 Passion Fruit,

* This is a Listed class race for all aged fillies over a Mile
* There has been 5 renewals of this race
* The last 4 winners of this were rated 100 100 111 111
* Only TREAT (100) and FLYING CLARETS (100) are 100 + rated
* They set the standard and the race is about two factors
* Can these 2 higher rated fillies show their form ?
* Can the other runners improve enough to overtake them?
* I do have some problems with the 2 class fillies
* The strike against TREAT is the long absence and her medical issues
* She moved from her last stable as she couldnt be trained on a "Hill"
* She has to be trained on a flat surface and this track may not suit
* There is no evidence she has yet trained on and she's a real mystery
* My problem with FLYING CLARETS is that she is more exposed than all past winners
* She has also failed in all 4 runs in Listed Class
* Both high rated horses have question marks
* The case for the others is not straight forward
* There has been money for FONDLED overnight into 5/2 favourite
* She has just won a Class 3 handicap but this is a class rise
* No past winner of this came via the handicap route
* All 18 horses that came via handicaps lost
* FONDLED -KASUMI - PASSION FRUIT - FOLLY LODGE fail that
* No past winner came from a 7f race like STEAM CUISINE
* Statistically speaking there is one runner that stands out
* I like CHANTILLY TIFFANY best
* She comes from the same race as last years winner
* She hasnt much to find on official ratings
* The form of her last run looks good and has taken many recent boosts
* I think the best value here is CHANTILLY TIFFANY

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WINDSOR 8:30 - SCOTT WILSON HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 1m67y

5/2 Grand Vizier, 6/1 Aggravation, 7/1 Alfresco, Dear Maurice, 8/1 Davenport, Dream Of Fortune, 12/1 Golden Prospect, 14/1 Australia Day, Quaglino Way, Sotik Star, 20/1 Eastern Emperor, 33/1 Briannsta, Leptis Magna, Louisiade.

* This is a 0-75 handicap over an extended Mile
* June has seen 265 similar handicaps run in Class 4-5-6
* I see weakness in DEAR MAURICE the favourite
* He has had 3 runs and comes from a 3yo maiden
* In 265 races horses that had just 3 runs won only 2 of the 265 races (2-68)
* Horses from Maidens like him had a poor record
* Males that tried it were just 1 from 69
* All horses trying it with under 7 runs were 1-79
* All horses trying it that ran within 7 weeks were 0-78
* None of the 2 that did it carried 9st or more
* In a big sample size of 265 races DEAR MAURICE looks vulnerable
* I am against anothern maiden runner QUAGLINO WAY with a big absence
* I didnt think SOTIK STAR would be fit enough
* I didnt think AUSTRALIA DAY would be fit enough
* GRAND VIZIER is a big runner and he is in good form
* I dont like 7f handicap winners when they step up to a Mile
* These types score badly and he is "shortlist" but not "selection" material
* AGGRAVATION has won this for the last 2 years
* AGGRAVATION will go close in his hat trick bid but he is not for me
* I felt this was a harder race than his 2006 and 2007 wins
* He is also coming into the race in slightly worse form this year
* He has also not won from his handicap mark before
* I think this is between 3 horses and like them in this order
* GOLDEN PROSPECT - DREAM OF FORTUNE - DAVENPORT

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PONTEFRACT 8:50 - SMITHS OF PETERBOROUGH RENAULT HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 6f

6/1 A Big Sky Brewing, 8/1 Bid For Gold, 9/1 Messiah Garvey, Over The Tylery, 10/1 Dickie Le Davoir, Gleaming Spirit, 11/1 Dolly No Hair, 12/1 Karky Schultz, Winthorpe, 14/1 Brigadore, Sands Of Barra, Sea Rover, 16/1 Avontuur, Royal Challenge, 20/1 Steel Blue, Steel City Boy

* This is an all aged handicap over 6 furlongs
* Pontefract has had 13 renewals of this race
* This looks a race where only a shortlist is possible
* I think I can rule out about Half of the field
* I want to oppose all horses that step up in trip today
* In 13 renewals they have a 0-64 record
* The following horses fail that and should be avoided
* A BIG SKY BREWING - OVER THE TYLERY - BRIGADORE + STEEL CITY BOY
* The following horses look either Unfit or Not ready to win
* BRIGADORE - SEA ROVER - OVER THE TYLERY
* Statistically I should take out the 8 year olds WINTHORPE - STEEL BLUE
* 3 Year Olds have won this race in the past so are not negatives
* I dont like either of the 3 year olds in this race
* KARKY SCHULTZ did not do enough for me last time
* DOLLY NO HAIR is a 3 year old with a bad draw in my view
* My shortlist would be these runners

Bid For Gold -Messiah Garvey -Dickie Le Davoir
Sands Of Barra - Avontuur -Royal Challenge -Steel Blue

* Any selection would have been a Guess
* I do think Bid For Glory will win the match bet with A Big Sky Brewing

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PONTEFRACT 9:20 TRENTON HULL RENAULT HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 5f

7/2 Funfair Wane, 5/1 Charles Parnell, 13/2 Kings College Boy, 7/1 Mr Wolf, 9/1 Pickering, 10/1 Jimmy The Guesser, 12/1 Namir, 14/1 Feelin Foxy, No Time, Red Cape, 16/1 Welcome Approach, 20/1 Never Without Me, 25/1 Blue Maeve 33/1 Legal Set.

My best angles in this race really only knock out the outsiders so I am a bit undercooked in the race. Of the fancied runners only Pickering did not really appeal with the absence and Namir looks opposable as well. In terms of finding a selection I would just prefer MR WOLF who loves it here and is well handicapped these days

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