Saturday 13th September

No Account Bet

Today's 4 Selection


Goodwood 3.20 - SONNY RED 3/1 Win Bet

Doncaster 3.45 - BOB'S SURPRISE 20/1 Each Way

Chester 2.30 - AKHENATEN 3/1 with a saver or Super Flight

Chester 3.00 - SURUOR 7/2


I think there is far too much today to make a considered
choice about an account bet. The message is too long and
there are too many options and I just dont feel I have had
the chance to isolate a strong account bet. This message
will suit those that bet in many races and spend the rest of the afternoon betting happily without worrying too much
about bankers and huge bets rather than the colder and more
ruthless " one big bet" only members.

I dont seem to be able to stick to any plans with Saturday
messages to shorten them as this is another Marathon with
far too many races looked at but as Saturday Messages go
it feels a quality high tempo effort. Results will determine whether its a classic or just an obese and clumsy effort but I have so many horses I could consider for bets and selections that I cant help feeling its too long. It starts with 4 races at Goodwood followed by another 4 at Chester and then ends with 6 long Doncaster previews.

I'm nailing my colours to NORTHERN FLING in the Portland
around 16/1 after an intense statistical Surge in the race. This race has turned into more of a fascinating battle between the stats which suggest he can win and the near impossibility of finding the winner and I will leave him off the selection list. The Leger isnt a race I want to play in and I doubt I have the winner in the preview later so I will leave that race alone too.

At Goodwood I like the 2.20 race which I feel will be won by SIGNOR PELTRO but I want a saver on KINGS BASTION.
I think SONNY RED will win the 3.20 and CONTRETEMPS can take the maiden at 4.30 and I see 3 decent bets there.

At Chester I feel AKHEENATEN will win the first race and
I think that with a saver on Super Flight youre covered. The impression SURUOR left me on video last time was that he would win the Nursery at 3pm getting a stone in weight from the favourite. ANGUS NEWZ looks the cheeky each way bet in the Listed race (3.30)

Doncaster is tough but considering how many big fields there are It will take few winners to profit. I am betting Northern Fling in the Portland. I think BOBS SURPRISE is worth a bet at 20/1 in the 3.45pm race and whilst perhaps too hard I have chances in the tough handicaps at 4.15 and 5.25

In the end I have opted to throw a Dart at a 20/1 chance in BOB'S SURPRISE but the other selections are horses that
I watched on video and thought they "will win" today. Its
meant we are left with an outrageous number of 4 selections today and that worries me. If we have a bad day we have a bad day and I will have to get over it but without one big single account bet I want to bet all 4 selections and taking my chances on a huge message and busy day.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Pleased obviously I did not have the account bet on Cool Judgement in the Mallard but a beautiful set of trends that shortlisted only him and the 10/1 winner The Bethworth Kid. What I failed to do was to realise The Betchworth Kid who was clear second best in the analysis
was worth saving on and had I had that account bet I really don't know if I would have saved or not but I was 90% there and I suppose I did the right thing in leaving the race alone. That left 2 selections and both failed I am afraid. I though King Olav ran really well in 3rd. He did not really look like winning althought for a few strides he was shaping like the winner but he just didnt have enough but I was pleased with his run despite not winning. I didnt see the Wolverhampton race but I feel
I probably underestimated the winner and overestimated the selection so overall a less than impresssive day. Busy day today so I will crack on.

Done the Most work at Doncaster - then Chester - then Goodwood. I will start with the shorter previews. Message starts with a few words about the Goodwood card. Then it turns to Chester and a few previews there before the longer Doncaster previews.


G O O D W O O D

Have had less time to look at Goodwood so its turned out to be the shorterst preview from the 3 main meetings today.


GOODWOOD 2.20

5/1 Signor Peltro, 13/2 Flipando, 7/1 Aye Aye Digby, Phantom Whisper, 15/2 King´s Bastion, 8/1 Pawan, South Cape, 17/2 Barons Spy, 10/1 Compton´s Eleven, 12/1 Eisteddfod, Salient, 50/1 Mount Pleasure.

* This is a 0-100 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 95 similar races since 1990
* Mount Pleasure clearly wont be fit
* I dont fancy COMPTONS ELEVEN in this race
* He has a 0-33 career record when running in class 2
* I dont fancy PAWAN for similar reasons
* He has a 0-21 record when tackling class 2 races
* Horses aged 8 or more won just 1 of the 95 races anyway
* I will take on the only 3 year old AYE AYE DIGBY
* In 15 renewals of this race 3 year olds were just 2-47
* With 5 or more runs they were just 1-43
* FLIPANDO is rejected aged 7 with 43 days absence
* Exposed horses absent a month or more had a poor 2-101 record
* This horse has yet to show winning form when Fresh
* SOUTH CAPE won this race last year
* I think it was a weaker race last year
* I dont like the fact he is drawn in stall one
* Go back to 2001 and Goodwood's had 87 handicaps at 7f
* In 87 races horses drawn in Stall one had a miserable 1-75 record
* You can also argue he would want faster ground
* Worries me EISTEDDFOD is the only runner up in trip
* Only 1 of the 15 Goodwood winners did that
* In 85 similar races exposed horses that tried it were just 4-147
* No horse his age managed it
* With under 8 races this season they were 1-38
* SALIENT looks to have too much to do out of the handicap
* BARONS SPY is an exposed 7 year old
* In 95 races these horses are 1-60 with under 8 runs that year
* BARONS SPY fails that and doesnt appeal in this class
* BARONS SPY has never won better than a Class 4 race before

SHORTLIST

* SIGNOR PELTRO - KINGS BASTION - PHANTOM WHISPER
* PHANTOM WHISPER has a chance
* You can argue he hasnt won from his handicap mark
* You can argue he has never won at 7f before
* Last time out was the only time he ran over 7f
* I am not sure he will get the trip well enough to win
* I would have him 3rd best in this race
* KINGS BASTION has a strong profile
* He comes from the same Chester race as the 2002 winner
* KINGS BASTION ran a lot better than it looked last time
* He didnt get the run of the race and was staying on well
* I give him a big chance despite no Goodwood experience
* SIGNOR PELTRO comes from the best trial race at Goodwood
* The 1993 - 1994 - 2000 - 2005 - 2006 winners came from that race
* He is well drawn and proven over track and ground
* He won very nicely there after missing the break
* I think he has a huge chance of winning again from 4lbs higher
* Win bet SIGNOR PELTRO and saver on KINGS BASTION

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GOODWOOD 2.50

9/4 Anmar, 11/4 Lahaleeb, 3/1 Sohcahtoa, 4/1 Measurement, 12/1 Zafisio, 33/1 Lilly Blue.

The one thing that would worry me about favourite ANMAR in this Listed race over a Mile for 2 year olds is the fact he has had just one career start. I have looked at all 7f and 8f Listed and Group races in September for 2 year olds. Horses with 1 run had a 0-16 record. I am not saying she wont win but its a worry. With SOHCAHTOA unproven
on soft ground from a sire that hasnt bred a soft ground winner yet I am of the view that LAHALEEB may win this. If you consider ANMAR may be underraced consider the contrast with LAHALEEB whose had 7 runs and a race just 2 days ago. I have to add no horse that exposed has won this race and no filly has either (0-13) so LAHALEEB is not ideal statistically but I would give her the verdict

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GOODWOOD 3.20

7/4 Asset, 5/2 Lesson In Humility, 4/1 Crimson Fern, Sonny Red, 16/1 Ashdown Express, 50/1 Monaazalah.

There has only been 6 renewals of this race. If you take the trends literally then only ASSET or SONNY RED will win. Hortses aged 3 like LESSON IN HUMILITY and MONAAZALAH havent won this (0-8) so far. All 6 winners had races in either Group one or Group two class before and LESSON IN HUMILITY and CRIMSON FERN have not. This pair come from Handicaps as well and no past winner did that and so
does ASHDOWN EXPRESS. This leaves seasonal debutant ASSET and SONNY RED and I have to go with SONNY RED. His last run at Newmarket would have been needed and watching him on video he was given an astonishingly easy ride and held up in last he had a ton in hand and went through the field like a knife through butter. The 2005 winner came from the same race and I fancy him strongly to win this. SONNY RED is a confident selection.

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GOODWOOD 4.30

5/4 Contretemps, 9/2 Silver Print, 5/1 Mt Kintyre, 8/1 Aqwaal, Itlaaq, 12/1 Princability, 16/1 Seaquel, 33/1 Royal Toerag.

This is a 2yo maiden over 8f. I would have to pick Godolphins once raced CONTRETEMPS. I looked at Godolphins record in all 8f maidens with their 2 year olds that had one career race. They had a brilliant record of 7 winners from 8 runners. Take the maidens at 7f and 8f and that becomes a 13-18 record. They won the race last year.
I would have to side with CONTRETEMPS

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C H E S T E R


CHESTER 2.30

9/2 Antigua Sunrise, 11/2 Akhenaten, 6/1 Super Flight, 7/1 Northern Acres, Royal Defence, 8/1 Graycliffe, Viking Awake, 10/1 Best Bidder, 12/1 Paquerettza, 14/1 Rising Kheleyf, 33/1 Lucy Brown, Nayessence.

Tough to sort out this Maiden over 7f for juveniles. What I would do in this race based on its 18 year history is this. I would take out the Three Unraced horses as
they have a 1-30 record in 18 renewals. The unraced horses are trained by Dandy Nicholls and Richard Fahey and neither trainer has had an unraced 2yo winner at 7f or more before anywhere. I would rule out horses drawn 8 or more. The last 22 seven furlong races here show stalls 8 or more having a 1-91 record. I would take out the fillies who have a 1-34 record. I would ignore the horses that came here with heavy defeats. Statistically the 2 against the field on the trends are VIKING AWAKE and AKHENATEN. Given their form and profiles I would have to prefer the Channon horse AKHENATEN here who takes a big drop in class and I love the fact he is down in trip. Has to be one to bet and I feel despite the draw you should save on his main
rival SUPER FLIGHT and if you do that I think the race is wrapped up.


CHESTER 3.00

11/8 Night Of Fortune, 3/1 Suruor, 4/1 Lakeman, 6/1 Firebet, 9/1 Fitzolini, 25/1 Our Apolonia.

This is a 7f Nursery. The question here is simple in will NIGHT OF FORTUNE who has just won a 0-86 Nursery here be able to give a stone weight to the Mark Johnston horse SURUOR who has just been beaten 9 lengths in a 0-84 Nursery. I think the answer has to be no he cant as if you watch the Video you may be as impressed with SURUOR as I was. He was hampered and blocked so many times on the rails and was prevented from getting several runs. He travelled supremely well and was prevented from finishing the race only to finish hard held and capable of so much more. In fact I would go as far as to say he would probably have won that Sandown race. He looked so unlucky and really looked like he had a ton of ability and getting a stone from the favourite I would rather bet SURUOR


CHESTER 3.30

I dont want to give an opinion in the 3.30. I can see the argument for LOOK BUSY whose best in at the weights and well drawn. He is a 3 year old with a penalty though
and that wont be automatic and he has not won at this trip yet so there are doubts about him. There hasnt been enough of these races to draw any real conclusion about how easy or hard that is but as she is a very short price and has been kept very busy. ANGUS NEWZ must have some sort of chance each way with a run 4 days ago and drawn in stall 1 and I would rather bet her each way at 13/2


CHESTER 4.40

7/2 Supermassive Muse, 9/2 Ice Planet,5/1 Angle Of Attack, 7/1 Green Park, Woodcote, 10/1 Thunder Bay, 20/1 Tyfos, 25/1 Fire Up The Band, Jilly Why

This is a 5f Handicap. We have a good record in this race. We had the 9/1 winner in 2006 as an account bet. We had the 2007 winner at 3/1 as the best bet that day. Not
so sure about this years race. You do seem to need a recent run from 20 renewals. I think I would ignore TYFOS drawn in stall 10. If you look at 3 year olds in this race
they have a miserable 1-52 record when having 9 or more runs. That would worry me. SUPERMASSIVE MUSE fails that as does ANGLE OF ATTACK and THUNDER BAY. I dont fancy Alan Berry's 9 year old FIRE UP THE BAND. I dont see JILLY
WHY winning. Statistically I should oppose ICE PLANET with 3 weeks absence but I wouldnt be sure about that. He has very little 5f form though and as horse in the 20
renewals of this race with 2-4 weeks absence had a 0-68 record I will take him on. I should also rule out GREEN PARK with a months absence but I do like the fact he is
back in a small field which is what he needs and he will be held up from stall 9 anyway. Statistically though there are just 2 runners that I can be confident about shortlisting and these are WOODCOTE and GREEN PARK.


I really didnt like the trends in the last 2 races. Felt they were complicated and missleading and left both races alone. All I would say is I shortlisted 4 horses in the 5.15pm and these were Basalt - Keelung -Okafranca - Squirtle -Sir Sandicliffe. In the 5.50pm I shortlisted the
3 main runners Offshore Anna, Applaude, Eton Fable.


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D O N C A S T E R



DONCASTER 2:05 - LADBROKES PORTLAND (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 5f140y

8/1 Cheveton, 10/1 Hogmaneigh, Tamagin, 11/1 Fullandby, 12/1 Northern Fling, Oldjoesaid, 14/1 Buachaill Dona, Strike Up The Band, 16/1 Chief Editor, Fathom Five, Lipocco, River Falcon, Toms Laughter, 20/1 Evens And Odds, Hamish McGonagall, Hoh Hoh Hoh, Siren´s Gift, 33/1 Inter Vision, Van Bossed, 40/1 Cute Ass, 50/1 Capricorn Run, Hammadi.

SELECTION - NORTHERN FLING

* The Portland is a 0-104 handicap over 5.5 furlongs
* I am looking at the last 18 renewals of this race since 1990
* I am looking at the 77 similar 5.5f and 6f class 2 handicaps in September
* The last 8 winners of this race ran within a Month
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs that had that absence were 0-49
* STRIKE UP THE BAND - CAPRICORN RUN fail that
* TOMS LAUGHTER - RIVER FALCON also fail that
* Horses aged 5 or more that had a months absence were 0-44
* STRIKE UP THE BAND - CAPRICORN RUN - RIVER FALCON fail that
* Horses that ran in Group class before that had a months absence were 0-29
* In 77 other races horses that combined both were 1-107
* SIRENS GIFT - HAMMADI - EVENS AND ODDS fail that
* CAPRICORN RUN -STRIKE UP THE BAND also fail that
* Horses that came from 5f races with a months absence were 0-29
* In 77 other races these types were 0-50
* EVENS AND ODDS - HAMISH MCGONAGALL fail that
* STRIKE UP THE BAND -TOMS LAUGHTER also fail that
* Horses that came from 5f races that were Aged 6 or more have a 0-54 record
* FULLANDBY - HOH HOH HOH have that to overcome
* Horses that came from 5f races with under 7 runs that year were 0-61
* HAMISH MCGONAGALL -FATHOM FIVE fail that
* CUTE ASS - CHIEF EDITOR also fail that
* Horses beaten 6+ lengths over 5f last time were 0-66 in this race
* In 77 other races they had a weak 1-120 record
* CHIEF EDITOR -HAMISH MCGONAGALL fail that
* Horses that came from 5f races that were not 1-2-3-4 last time out had a 0-97 record
* They had a miserable 4-222 record in 77 other races
* CHIEF EDITOR - CUTE ASS - HAMISH MCGONAGALL fail that
* 5f runners struggle when a) Not placing last time b) Not running within 15 days
* In 77 races horses that came from 5f with under 13 runs were 1-77
* HAMISH MCGONAGALL - CUTE ASS fail that
* CHIEF EDITOR - CHEVETON also fail that
* In 77 races horses that came from 5f without a run in 15 days were 2-175
* With 21 + career starts they were 0-93
* FULLANDBY - STRIKE UP THE BAND -TOMS LAUGHTER fail that
* With under 8 runs that year they were 0-116
* FULLANDBY - HAMISH MCGONAGALL fail that
* When aged 5 or more they were 0-75
* FULLANDBY - STRIKE UP THE BAND fail that
* When winning last time they were 0-26
* CHEVETON -STRIKE UP THE BAND fail that
* When Male they have a 1-132 record
* HAMISH MCGONAGALL EVENS AND ODDS -FULLANDBY fail that
* CHEVETON - STRIKE UP THE BAND -TOMS LAUGHTER fail that
* Horses with 21 + runs that had under 7 runs that season had a 0-77 record in this race
* TAMAGIN has that to overcome
* Horses with 13 + career starts with under 7 runs that year are 1-121
* TAMAGIN - SIREN´S GIFT - LIPOCCO fail that
* HOGMANEIGH - FATHOM FIVE also fail that
* Only 2 of the last 18 winners had under 7 runs that year
* I want to look at the horses that had under 7 runs that season
* None were exposed (0-50) as TAMAGIN is
* None were Aged 3 (0-38) like the following 4 horses
* CUTE ASS -HAMISH MCGONAGALL - HAMMADI - VAN BOSSED
* None ran within a month (0-80) as the following 6 have
* CHIEF EDITOR - CUTE ASS - FATHOM FIVE
* HOGMANEIGH - OLDJOESAID -TAMAGIN
* None came from 5f (0-60) and these 4 horses fail that
* CHIEF EDITOR - CUTE ASS - FATHOM FIVE - HAMISH MCGONAGALL
* None had 9st + (0-66) as the following 7 horses had
* CHIEF EDITOR - CUTE ASS - FATHOM FIVE - HAMMADI
* HOGMANEIGH -LIPOCCO- OLDJOESAID
* Fillies won 2 of the last 18 races but none since 1993
* Both fillies were unexposed - Aged under 5 - and had under 9st
* They also came 1st or 2nd in a class 2 handicap last time out
* CUTE ASS - SIREN´S GIFT both fail that
* None of the 18 winners were beaten 12 + lengths last time out
* VAN BOSSED fails that
* Horse coming from the bottom 5 horses in the weights were 1-100
* VAN BOSSED -SIREN´S GIFT - CHEVETON fail that
* RIVER FALCON - HAMISH MCGONAGALL fail that
* The Portland winner has never come from a Listed Class or Group class race before
* CHIEF EDITOR -FATHOM FIVE - FULLANDBY - LIPOCCO fail that
* Horses with 9st 9lbs or more won just 2 of the last 19 races (2-62)
* OLDJOESAID - FULLANDBY - HOH HOH HOH -BUACHAILL DONA
* I would Shortlist the following
* NORTHERN FLING - INTER VISION
* These horses were 3rd and 6th in the same Ripon Handicap last time
* NORTHERN FLING looks the stronger and better drawn
* INTER VISION may find the ground too soft and isnt as well drawn
* NORTHERN FLING appeals at 16/1

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DONCASTER 2.35 - LADBROKES SPRINT CUP (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

4/1 African Rose, 9/2 Utmost Respect, 6/1 US Ranger, 7/1 Corrybrough, Equiano, 14/1 Ancien Regime, Astronomer Royal, Balthazaar´s Gift, Diabolical, 20/1 Reverence, 33/1 Assertive, 40/1 Strike The Deal, 50/1 Knot In Wood, Prime Defender, Wi Dud, 66/1 Abraham Lincoln.

SELECTION - US RANGER with a saver on UTMOST RESPECT

The LADBROKES SPRINT CUP at 2.35 is usually run at Haydock but was abandoned this year and rescheduled. That will affect the trends. So to will the fact York this year was abandoned as 5 of the last 8 winners came from that
meeting so things are clearly different this year. Throw in some Irish and French raiders and I have not got the weapons to open this up. I would want a higher draw if possible. Three low drawn horses are also 3 year olds coming from 5f races and thats a poor profile for me so EQUIANO - CORRYBROUGH and ANCIEN REGIME are opposable. If you look at 3 year olds that come from 5f races the Mighty Dayjur did it in 1990 after winning the Nunthorpe but he was top notch and all 20 that tried since lost. I would have to oppose handicappers and the older horses like REVERENCE. Exposed horses score badly and that and the size of the field puts me off BALTHAZAARS GIFT. I dont want the likes of Diabolical - Assertive - Prime Defender as exposed horses. I suppose AFRICAN ROSE could be questioned as a 3 year old filly. All 13 three year old
fillies that tried to win this lost and bad ground wouldnt make me view these horses in a more favourable light. I looked closer at the record of 3yo fillies like
AFRICAN ROSE. Since 1987 there has been 109 Group Races at at 6f for older horses. These are all Group Races at any time of year as long as its 6f and as long as its for older horses. I looked at 3yo fillies. They had an awful 1-97 record in the 109 races. That 1-97 record looks bad and when you consider the only one that won was back in 1988 when Posada won at Royal Ascot 20 years ago it really does put me off AFRICAN ROSE. Therefore I I would have to favour UTMOST RESPECT and US RANGER from this field. Win bet on US RANGER and save on the other.

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DONCASTER 3:10 - LADBROKES ST LEGER(GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m6f132y

9/4 Frozen Fire, 7/2 Look Here, 7/1 Doctor Fremantle, 8/1 Conduit, Unsung Heroine, 9/1 Alessandro Volta, 12/1 Top Lock, 16/1 Washington Irving, 33/1 Whistledownwind, 40/1
Warringah, 100/1 Bashkirov, Enroller, Hindu Kush, 500/1 Maidstone Mixture.

SELECTION - ALESSANDRO VOLTA Each Way

The St Leger looks open this year. I think its hard to use trends in this race this year as York which is a major trial meeting was abandoned. This has left several
horses here having Long absences as their prep races was abandoned. This leavesa huge doubt about many. You have to go back over 40 years for the last horse to defy a 10 week absence in this race which is a big worry for LOOK HERE.
She hasnt run in 99 days and whilst I dont mind fillies in this race I dont want one with a long absence like that and she is only a small horse on soft ground and whilst I cant make her a negative she isnt for me. CONDUIT has just been rejected by Ryan Moore who prefers Doctor Fremantle and I dont see reason to argue against that choice from Ryan More. I think you can only take that as a negative for the horse so he wont be my pick. My only rservation is that Ryan Moore may have underestimated how much the ground may dry out and its also interesting reading Tony Elves gallop report in the Racing Post on page 12 where
he considers that CONDUIT went better than Doctor Freemantle in his last piece of work. Then again Ryan Moore must have known that and still prefered to swop
mounts so I will accept his decision and presume he is right. Therefore I wont be going with CONDUIT much as I worry thats wrong. FROZEN FIRE has a fair chance but for a while I decided I would oppose him. Partly as he has stamina doubts. Partly because he is a short price and partly because he has Showed signs of temperament and has a high head carriage and with Woodman in the Pedigree and Montjeu you wouldnt be surprised to see some quirkyness and
besides that he is another with a long absence (76 days). Of course the absence issue doesnt matter as much if most runner are in the same boat as they are but you still cant be sure that your horse can overcome it. The recent each way move has been DOCTOR FREEMANTLE and He has every chance. He has been off a while as well with a foot injury and missing the Great Voltigeur wont have helped him. The Poor Stoute record in this race wouldnt bother me. I could not entertain UNSUNG HEROINE as a filly with 2 runs and No past winner had such inexperience. I respect TOP LOCK but would worry he would stay but I certainly wouldnt rule him out and it may be worth considering that he is one
of a small group that have had a recent run and not an interrupted preparation. WASHINGTON IRVING couldnt beat a 4 year old last time getting 11lbs in weight and I see him as out of his depth. I am torn between the chances of both
ALESSANDRO VOLTA and DOCTOR FREEMANTLE and in the end I
decided to go with ALESSANDRO VOLTA each way

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DONCASTER 3:45 - NATIONAL EXPRESS PARK STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

11/8 Major Cadeaux, 4/1 Laa Rayb, 8/1 Al Qasi, Arabian Gleam, Smokey Oakey, 16/1 Passager, 20/1 Bobs Surprise, Welsh Emperor, 40/1 Somnus,

SELECTION - BOBS SURPRISE 20/1 EACH WAY

* The Park Stakes is a 7f Group race for older horses
* It has a 5 year History in recent years at this trip
* Pre 1996 the race was ran many more times at 7f
* Between 1996 and 2002 the race was run at a Mile
* We have 12 renewals of this race where it was run at 7f
* Interesting that all 12 winners had under 12 career starts
* The last 5 winners had 4 12 7 6 9 career starts
* Those that had 13 or more had a 0-36 record in this race
* If this happens again then 3 horses pass the trends
* MAJOR CADEAUX - ARABIAN GLEAM - BOBS SURPRISE
* ARABIAN GLEAM won this race last year
* MAJOR CADEAUX probably hasnt been staying a mile recently
* I would favour this pair over the rest of the field
* MAJOR CADEAUX looks back under ideal circumstances
* MAJOR CADEAUX is clearly "Most likely winner"
* I am going with BOBS SURPRISE each way
* He is a 3 year old absent 70 days
* 3 year olds have a strong record winning 8 of the 12 renewals
* In 2004 Pastoral Pursuits won as a 3yo with a long absence
* Bog Trotter also did it in 1991
* He likes the ground and gets the allowances
* He isnt a safe bet but at 20/1 Barry Hills may have improved him
* He is worth a punt each way at 20/1

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DONCASTER 4:15 - KEEPMOAT STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-105) 1m4f

4/1 Moonquake, 5/1 Meshtri, 15/2 Dr Faustus, 8/1 Milne Graden, Tastahil, 10/1 Ladies Best, 11/1 Walking Talking, 12/1 Group Captain, New Guinea, Rosbay, 14/1 Come On Jonny, 16/1 Magicalmysterytour, 20/1 Greek Envoy, Players Please, 33/1 Lost Soldier Three.

SELECTION - TASTAHIL

* This is a 12f handicap for all aged horses rated 0-110
* Doncaster has had 19 renewals of this race
* All 19 winners ran within 80 days
* Magicalmysterytour - Walking Talking fail that
* I would oppose Lost Soldier Three aged 7 with 83 days off
* I would oppose Group Captain with 77 days off and 1 run since May
* In recent years lighter raced horses had the edge
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 1 of the last 11 renewals
* That puts me off COME ON JONNY whose also got a long absence
* It also puts me off the exposed ROSBAY
* Horses that stepped up from 10f or shorter struggled
* They won just 2 of the 19 renewals
* Horses aged 3 that tried it had a poor 1-24 record
* All 19 of these that were male lost so DR FAUSTUS is out
* He is the only horse up from 10f and that worries me
* DR FAUSTUS also comes froma 3yo handicap
* Horses that did that had a poor 1-30 record in this race
* MESHTRI also comes from a 3yo handicap
* MOONQUAKE also comes from a 3yo handicap
* September has seen 87 similar 12f races in Class 3 and Class 2
* In 87 races I looked at horses that came from 3yo handicaps
* With under 5 runs they had a 0-19 record
* None of those were 1st or 2nd and several were beaten favourites
* This puts me off MOONQUAKE and MESHTRI a little
* MILNE GRADEN was well beaten last time and that worries me
* I looked at 87 similar races for horses beaten 10 + lengths
* When having under 7 runs as MILNE GRADEN they were 1-67
* With under 4 runs this year they were 1-77
* MILNE GRADEN fails both and that would put me off him a bit
* MESHTRI also fails that
* I want to oppose other horses beaten 10 + lengths last time
* When coming from 11 or shorter they are just 2-96
* When aged 4 or more doing this they are 0-50
* GREEK ENVOY fails that and comes from a big defeat
* PLAYERS PLEASE is an older horse coming from a big defeat
* He wouldnt be top of my list either after my last run
* NEW GUINEA is perfectly fine statisticaly
* It would worry me he has had just 1 run since Febuary
* I felt he needed it badly at Chester and he may also need this
* I want to shortlist two horses in this race
* TASTAHIL - LADIES BEST
* TASTAHIL has a very solid profile
* I have found past winners with profiles like LADIES BEST
* TASTAHIL is prefered to give Barry Hills a good day
* The trainer loves winners here and I think he has the best profile
* TASTAHIL is the selection

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DONCASTER 5:25 - STATE CLUB HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-110)1m

11/2 Gold Sovereign, 7/1 Blythe Knight, Duntulm, Mia´s Boy, Rio Riva, 10/1 Babodana,Caldra, Huzzah, Virtual, 12/1 Webbow, 14/1 Pride Of Nation, 16/1 The Snatcher, 25/1
Steam Cuisine.

SELECTION - DUNTULM

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-110
* Doncaster have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 34 similar class 2 handicaps elsewhere
* Horses aged 3 have a patchy record in these races
* When they were not 1st or 2nd last time out they were 0-46
* DUNTULM - HUZZAH - VIRTUAL fail that
* When they have 13 or more career starts they were 0-29
* HUZZAH also fails that
* Horses that came from 7f races have a 1-37 record in this race
* In 34 similar races they scored badly as well
* When doing this having had 9 + career starts they were just 1-78
* CALDRA - THE SNATCHER - STEAM CUISINE all fail that
* In 34 similar races no horse aged 6 or more defied a months absence
* PRIDE OF NATION is 6 years old and absent 43 days
* BABODANA is out aged 8 absent 105 days
* RIO RIVA is out aged 7 absent 79 days
* I have found winners absent like MIA'S BOY
* I dont want him though from that handicap mark absent 99 days
* I have found winners like WEBBOW in 34 races
* It just worries me he is a 6 year old with just 3 runs this year
* He is also 6lbs out of the handicap which has to badly hurt him
* I have found winners like GOLD SOVEREIGN
* He does have holes in his profile though and is drifting in the market
* I have found winners that came from Group races like BLYTHE KNIGHT
* None were as exposed as him though
* I am not happy with the path the stats are steering me
* I am going with DUNTULM
* The only trend he fails is being aged 3 when not 1st or 2nd last time
* I forgive him that as it was a Listed race last time
* DUNTULM has some tasty form
* First time out at Bath he ran into a Listed class filly
* He then won a Handicap on 2000 Guineas day
* That was a massive performance as he badly missed the break
* He lost that much ground he was matched at 800/1 in running that day
* He then lost at Haydock but he hated the ground that day
* He got Jarred up in Firm and had to have 6 weeks off
* He then turned out and won a class Newmarket handicap
* His defeat in Listed Class last time is excused
* As I said not happy with where the trends led me here
* Taking the chance DUNTULM can win this

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