No Account Bet

Trying very hard to find you an account bet at the moment but the ammount of racing makes it hard and the rain today is addding to those problems. I want the ground to stay fast at Doncaster for JUN FAN in the opening Apprentice race at 6.30 but not sure how realistic that is with the weather in the North so grim today and it has been raining at Doncaster today. Decided not to make him a selection for
that reason - and the fact its a very hard race - and I have two similar priced horses that have hardly anything to beat so must be better value. I think I have to stay off the account and continue with some non account selections.

What I want to do is get my timing right on Friday and Saturday with the messages so I can hopefully squeeze in a Sunday message. Achieving that might mean a slightly
later Friday message tomorrow and it does look as though all the choice is with the night cards. Thats certainly the game plan at the moment.


Today's Selections


CARTMEL 5.20 - HUMOUROUS Each Way 4/1

LEICESTER 5.00 - ALMONAFIS Each Way 5/1

To be honest both came very close to being account bets. HUMOUROUS is in a very dangerous place as one non runner would mean he would have to be a win bet as there are just 5 runners in this race. If that happens I dont mind selecting him to win but wouldnt want a full bet on that scenario and I think he just comes short of account strength. I personally think he has been underestimated in the market and has a superb chance of winning this. ALMONAFIS will show some vast improvement today and only the favourite who I dont think is safe anyway worries
me. I like this pair a lot today. Each Way double is 30/1 and thats great value as well

**********************************************
**********************************************


T O N I G H T ' S R A C I N G

No good yesterday. PLUVIUS came second at Lingfield. Felt he would beat his main danger but I didnt see the 4 year old Swinburn horse winning and that shows it was a bad race. He didnt handle the track but short priced ones should win and he was a dissapointment. The other selection MONTYS TAN drifted in the betting and faded after running well for a long way and overall either one of both were a bit self indulgent. The other bet I suggested won which hopefully some of you may have had but I couldnt have made that a true selection.


AFTERNOON CARDS


Starting off with a couple of things to say about the Late races on the afternoon cards. Get them out of the first. I think there are 3 horses that ought to go very close and could win

HAMILTON 4.00 - WELLS LYRICAL 2/1

LEICESTER 5.00 - ALMONAFIS 5/1 (E/W)

CARTMELL 5:20 - HUMOUROUS 7/2 (E/W)

In the maiden race at Hamilton (4pm) I would have liked to have had an each way double including WELLS LYRICAL but there are only 7 runners and that means win only and I
feel there is some strength in depth in the race. WELLS LYRICAL has been beaten just 2 lengths in a 0-81 handicap and I think that ought to be enough to win this maiden. Wont highlight him but I fancy him To just have too much for this opposition

I liked the Novice Hurdle at Cartmell (5.20) over 2m 6f. I think I have a direct choice in this race between HUMOUROUS who I just prefer to Yachvili. My interest in the race came as I wanted to oppose WITHINGTON because of his profile. WITHINGTON is a 9 year old who has had 1 career start. Not only that it came in a chase over half a mile further. There are so many combinations of angles he fails with that profile. Will give just one. In the last
16 years there has been 2654 novice hurdles run between 19f and 24f. Thats any track and any time of year. If you took 9 year olds that had just 1 career start in these 2654 races you find a 0-93 record. In 2654 races its never been done anywhere before and thats without the
other problems like coming from fences and dropping half a mile. I think I have to oppose him and felt HUMOUROUS had the safer profile of the only dangers. YACHVILI has been
well backed and has an obvious chance as favourite but I am not sure he will stay and if the rains get into the ground he wont like that. Petrified of a non runner and that just makes me consider HUMOUROUS more an each way selection than an account bet

ALMONAFIS interests me in the maiden at Leicester (5f). He is in a race that it looks like only 5 horses can win. CHANGING SKIES sets the standard having ran in Group 2 class last time at Ascot. She isnt worth her rating of 100 and she is not as strong statistically as you may think she is. Shes far from unbeatable in this race. ALMONAFIS was made 13/8 favourite to win a Yarmouth maiden on his debut - He came 3rd - he was 3.5 lengths behind
the runner up SKYCAP who is todays second favourite. ALMONAFIS does have to find 3.5 lengths and may will see that as unlikely but I dont. I thought on video he was capable of running him a lot closer than he did and had by far the easier race. Additionally Stoutes debutants in maidens at this time of year score badly and badly need the run. His record with horses on their 2nd starts are superb. He has a 50% strike rate in all maidens with one previous run and his record at this distance since 1997 is 8 winners from 13 runners with 12 of the 13
placing. It wouldnt surprise me at all if ALMONAFIS improved a lot and reversed the form of his debut run with SKYCAP and beat the favourite. ALMONAFIS e/w for me.

**********************************************
**********************************************

EVENING CARDS

Going to give BATH a miss tonight down to huge fields and no past renewals as its a new meeting. Need at least something as the track can be a law unto itself and I didnt feel I had the weapons to open up such a tough card.


DONCASTER 6:30 - SOCIETY AND LIFESTYLE MAGAZINE APPRENTICE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-60) 5f

5/1 Jun Fan, Thomas Malory, 6/1 Bond Becks, 12/1 Fast Freddie, Tittle, 16/1 Dancing Mystery, Mac Dalia, Mickleberry, Miss Sunshine, Overstayed, Owed, Rann Na Cille, The Cube, 20/1 Afton View, City For Conquest, Lujiana, 25/1 Piccolo Diamante, 33/1 Beechside, 50/1 Groundhog Day.

* This is a 5f handicap for Apprentices
* Doncaster has 10 renewals of this race - but it ended in 2005
* July has seen 33 of these Apprentice races
* You tend to find the demands to win these races are the same everywhere
* The Doncaster trends almost mirror the trends at other tracks
* Thats why I like these races - they can be trusted most of the time
* As an example all 10 Doncaster winners had at least 9 career starts
* Horses with under 9 runs had a 0-46 record at all other tracks as well
* GROUNDHOG DAY and TITTLE look far too inexperienced with 3-4 runs
* All 10 Doncaster winners had at least 3 runs that season
* In 33 other races horses with under 3 runs that year were 0-68
* TITTLE - MICKLEBERRY - PICCOLO DIAMANTE -BEECSIDE fail that
* All 33 winners were aged under 9 years old
* That takes out DANCING MYSTERY the 14 year old
* You never see 14 year old winning a 5f race anywhere
* All 10 Doncaster winners ran within a month
* 29 of the 31 similar winners also ran within a month
* I would be against the following horses with unforgivable absences
* OVERSTAYED - RANN N CILLE - BEECHSIDE
* The issue with 3 year olds is interesting - they dont score well
* In 33 similar races only 2 went to 3 year olds
* 3 year old fillies had a 0-38 record so these 4 are rejected
* TITTLE - MAC DALIA - LUJIANA - MISS SUNSHINE
* Horses aged 3 that came from 5f races had a 0-32 record
* MAC DALIA - TITTLE have that against them
* Horses that were not within 10 lengths of the winner last time were poor
* In 33 races these types had a 0-103 record suggesting you need a good prep
* PICCOLO DIAMANTE -OWED - MISS SUNSHINE fail that
* AFTON VIEW - BEECHSIDE also fails that
* THE CUBE is out coming from a maiden
* Fillies should be opposed unless running within 2 weeks
* There are 4 horses that have everything it takes to win this race

* JUST FAN
* BOND BECKS
* THOMAS MALORY
* FAST FREDDIE
* CITY FOR CONQUEST

* THOMAS MALORY is rejected first from the shortlist
* He comes from a 3yo handicap and his age group are weak
* FAST FREDDIE has yet to win on grass but I am not too worried
* He hasnt had the chances yet to win on grass
* He has only a 0-55 class field against him today and he is rated 59
* He was only beaten 3 lengths last time in a 0-71
* FAST FREDDIE could easily outclass this field from this handicap mark
* I am worried on two points - every drop of rain is against him
* He is also very weak in the market

SHORTLIST

* JUST FAN
* BOND BECKS
* CITY FOR CONQUEST

* CITY FOR CONQUEST is one of the more likely fillies
* Wouldnt want much rain and I am nervous about her gender and overall form
* BOND BECKS has to be respected in these races
* JUN FAN has a very interesting 2 day break
* The Beverley race he was 3rd in 48 hours ago has provided 2 winners of this race
* He has been threatening to win for a while

SELECTION - JUN FAN

**********************************************
**********************************************

SANDOWN 6:40 - HITCHCOCK & KING AND ATKINS & CO. HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-80) 5f6y

4/1 Barbary Boy, 9/2 Requisite, 11/2 Mistress Cooper, 6/1 Speed Song, 7/1 First Trim, 9/1 Magical Speedfit, Really Really Wish, 12/1 Maggie Kate, Perfect Flight, 14/1 Ten Down.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f for 0-80 rated horses
* There has been 113 of these races at this time of year
* None of the 113 winners last ran in a 2yo maiden
* Therefore REALLY REALLY WISH is overlooked
* Fillies won 49 of the 113 races but certain fillies were weak
* Fillies with 1 race that season struggled (1-37)
* That puts m off MISTRESS COOPER who also has a months absence
* Inexperienced fillies did not have the best records
* In 113 similar races fillies with under 5 starts had a 1-46 record
* SPEED SONG fails that and also has a 324 day absence
* I wonder if winning a Yarmouth maiden has made her badly handicapped
* I am overlooking SPEED SONG because of the above points
* I dont want BARBARY BOY myself in this race
* Horses like him that had 1 run that season struggled in these races
* When they had that and came from 5f races they were 0-32 in 113 races
* Besides his maiden win was only against horses rated 53 and 48
* He will be bette than that but he hasnt proven it yet and may want softer ground
* I dont want PERFECT FLIGHT as a filly absent 38 days
* I thought TEN DOWN - MAGGIE KATE - MAGICAL SPEEEDFIT were exposed
* The majority of winners of these races were not exposed
* I think 2 horses stand out in this race

* FIRST TRIM
* REQUISITE


FIRST TRIM won a 0-75 on a Grade 1 track last time out and may have some more
improvement but I dont like the pilot or the absence

REQUISITE has managed to find herself a 0-79 class handicap and thats interesting as she
was second last time in a 0-95 class handicap. She goes from recieving weight against better
class rivals to conceeding weight to lower class ones. She would be my choice

**********************************************
**********************************************

SANDOWN 7:45 - CHILDREN'S TRUST CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m14y

15/8 Optimus, 9/2 Bartercard, Namid Reprobate, 11/2 Arctic Desert, 8/1 Mick Is Back, 33/1 Bollywood.

* This is a claiming race over a Mile
* There has been 56 similar races run in July
* I want to oppose OPTIMUS as he comes down from 14f to 8f
* Thats a radical 6f drop in distance
* In 56 similar races horses that dropped from 11f or more were 0-60
* Thats enough to put me off OPTIMUS
* BOLLYWOOD looks out of his depth today
* NAMID REPROBATE comes from a 7f handicap
* These horses dont score well and none had the profile he does
* NAMID REPROBATE comes out as vulnerable at the weights
* MICK IS BACK comes out as 2nd worst horse at the weights
* Exposed 4 year olds didnt score well in these races anyway
* None won since 1994 and he doesnt have a winning profile for me
* The two horses with the strongest profiles in this race are these
* BARTERCARD - ARCTIC DESERT
* Only 1 of the 56 winners came from sellers like ARCTIC DESERT
* That winner was a similar type though - older - exposed - in form
* ARCTIC DESERT does have a small chance in this race
* BARTERCARD has one bad run to put behind him
* On his previous start the saddle slipped
* I can forgive him his last run drawn worst at Warwick and not settling
* No reason at all why he cant win this at these weights

SELECTION- BARTERCARD with a saver on ARCTIC DESERT

**********************************************
**********************************************

DONCASTER 8:10 MOSS PROPERTIES FILLIES' HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-95) 7f

9/4 Persian Sea, 7/2 Just Like A Woman, 5/1 Cha Cha Cha, 10/1 Misphire, Naughty Frida, 12/1 Folly Lodge
Tender The Great,16/1 Passion Fruit, 20/1 Debonnaire, Musical Beat.

* This is a 7f handicap for all aged fillies rated 0-86
* There has been 21 similar races at this time of year
* I made JUST LIKE A WOMAN an account bet last time
* She was 12/1 in a 0-95 and ran second
* The horse that beat her was very similar to PERSIAN SEA
* He was a Michael Jarvis maiden winner on his 3rd start (Red Dune)
* I think PERSIAN SEA as the main obstacle to her winning again
* I do think JUST LIKE A WOMAN will take this race
* She drops from a 0-95 to a 0-86 and still gets weight from 8 horses
* PERSIAN SEE has a bit harder task than Red Dune did anyway
* He had a 3yo handicap to win and this is against older horses
* JUST LIKE A WOMAN has the experience you need for a race like this
* I think several of these have shaky profiles
* No similar race went to a horse like FOLLY LODGE
* None came from Listed race as she does and none won with that absence
* You can also point to horses with 10st scoring badly in these races as well
* MISPHIRE won a 0-78 last time and now faces a better class race with a penalty
* All 8 horses that had penalties failed to overcome them in these races
* I thought CHA CHA CHAS had been caught by the handicapper
* MUSICAL BEAT has fewer runs this year than any other horse and a break
* PASSION FRUIT still looks vulnerable to me
* DEBONNAIRE is struggling at the moment and doesnt make much appeal
* TENDER THE GREAT has chances on some pieces of form
* She isnt easy to fancy on her last run and she has to give my choice 11lbs
* NAUGHTY FRIDA is in the same boat in my view
* She achieved less than JUST LIKE A WOMAN last time and gives her 8lbs
* I think JUST LIKE A WOMAN is the one here
* This race has only been run twice before at Doncaster
* One of those winners came from the same race as JUST LIKE A WOMAN ran in
* Off 8st 10lbs JUST LIKE A WOMAN stands out

**********************************************
**********************************************