Thursday June 19th

No Account Bet

If Coastal Path wins the Gold Cup today then we have had 2 very good winners this week from the opening two days. We will have been well rewarded for a low key patient and cautions approach to the meeting and I'm happy we are in the position we are. That said I can not dance around this meeting for 5 days and even if I wanted to Ascots Handicaps
dont allow me the luxury. Todays card forces you into the Lions Den. If we get out from today without some damage done I will be surprised. Aside from yesterdays bet which is still running I am having 3 selections today. Of these 3 selections (below) I am most interested in the 4.55pm
where I am having a split stake bet with a bit more on the outsider. If I was bringing back the old "best bets of the day" today for a bit of nostalgia I would be tempted by Pampas Cat at 14/1 and more in the 4.55pm but dont forget the other bet in the race. Low Stakes day please. It wont be easy to make a level stakes profit from today unless of couse Coastal Path wins.

Todays Selections are these :

Todays Selections

ASCOT 3.05

DAR RE MI 6/1
CHANGING SKIES (Saver 7/1)

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ASCOT 3.45

Yesterdays Bet still running
on Coastal Bluff

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ASCOT 4.55

Split Stake Bet

PAMPAS CAT 14/1 +
KENSINGTON OVAL 5/1 +

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Warwick 5.20

VISCOUNT ROSSINI 8/1


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Looking at todays selections I have to include yesterdays COASTAL PATH each way double as thats still running and I hope as many as possible are on that as that bet is now looking brilliant value. I see VISCOUNT ROSSINI as a small
average stakes bet that you might have in any day to day big field handicap. He is there because alternatives are thin on the ground. I like the 4.55 at Ascot and think PAMPAS CAT is a big price at 14/1 or better and I have seen 20/1 on Betfair. I also like KENSINGTON OVAL and have decided on a split stake bet there. I have also gone with two horses in the Ribblesdale as I need a saver.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


If you had taken the advice yesterday and taken 6/4 about DUKE OF MARMALADE in the each way double with COASTAL PATH who runs today you have a decent bet now. You are on COASTAL PATH at 8/1 now and you will get your money back if the horse is 2nd or 3rd. You now have hedging options if you want them. I think you have to make sure you cant lose on the race now. If COASTAL PATH wins then it will have been a pretty inspired bet. If he Places then there is no damage. If he loses and doesnt place then you should be in a position where your dissapointment is compensated so you dont lose money on the day. I know the bet was over 2 days but it could be a 8/1 winner and over 2 days that is far better than I think we could have achieved on yesterdays cards. Had I not done that yesterday we would have had a bad day as the most likely alternative was 3 each way doubles which included Bankable and Great Knight which would have recorded an unpleasant loss. Sets us up nicely today. Always said just stay with the selections at the top of the message. The rest has been rejected.

I do not want to look at many Non Ascot races today. Did not like too many races anyway and there are still far too many maidens about which just twist you in knots. You would think they were the easiest of races to sort but they are often the hardest. I dont see much at all so
todays message is down to the Last 5 Ascot races and one interesting race at Warwick.


WARWICK 5:20 - TURFTV HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-55) 1m2f188y

4/1 Faith And Reason, 13/2 Moonshine Creek, 7/1 Prime Contender, Viscount Rossini, 10/1 Magic Warrior,
12/1 Laish Ya Hajar, Skye But N Ben, 16/1 General Flumpa, 20/1 Fairly Honest, Giddywell, 25/1 Ardent Prince, Camerooney, Icansingarainbow, 33/1 Brutus Maximus

* This is an extended 10f handicap for horses rated 0-55
* There has been around 40 of these races at this time of year
* BRUTUS MAXIMUS and ICANSINGARAINBOW are too inexperienced
* Horses with 1 race this season look opposable
* They have a 1-61 record and I think you have to oppose them in this race
* FAITH AND REASON - ARDENT PRINCE are out
* FAITH AND REASON is badly drawn in stall 17 anyway
* Since 2000 Warwick has had 82 races at this distance
* In these 82 races horses drawn 16 or more had a 0-103 record
* Thats suggests FAITH AND REASON will not beat stall 17
* It also suggests GENERAL FLUMPA will not beat stall 16
* With both horses ridden by 7lbs claimers their chance looks slim
* That said 3 non runners make the draw stats look a lot easier to overcome
* I dont want CAMEROONEY in this race
* I dont like him on breeding as his sires record is poor
* I dont like lightweights in these races as they dont win many
* I think its a poor sign he started 66/1 last time in a handicap
* I didnt see enough promise on tape last time
* FAIRLY HONEST looks impossible to fancy on his overall form
* MOONSHINE CREEK looks to have a chance of current form
* I really dont like his draw in stall 15 though which wont be easy to overcome
* He is also a light weight and they score badly
* GIDDYWELL looks an interesting runner
* On the plus side She is well draw and I like her down in trip
* This is a 10f horse and she doesnt really get the 12f she has raced over
* On the downside I dont like fillies with under 3 runs that season
* I do have a doubt that she is fit and ready enough
* You also have the dilemma of whether she can translate her sand form
* SKYE BUT N BEN had no chance at Ripon last time being held up
* I dont he could have stayed 12f last time but I need more than that
* His overall form is poor and lightweights dont score well
* LAISH YA HAJAR is very interesting
* His drop in class and ratings is significant
* He could blow these away and outclass them
* Coming from 9f to 11f is an advantage statistically
* His only problem is wheher he will stay
* He didnt look to stay 9f last time but that may be missleading
* Could have been the class that beat him that day
* There is a big doubt though and he looks weak on the dam's side
* MAGIC WARRIOR has a decent draw and is well handicapped
* The negatives are there with him though
* Not sure he truly stays this trip
* He is a horse thats prone to bleeding and is described as "Tricky"
* His draw may work against him as he is often covered up from behind
* He also has to show grass form for the first time in ages

SHORTLIST

* VISCOUNT ROSSINI - PRIME CONTENDER


* PRIME CONTENDER has the ability but there are issues with him
* This is his first run for a new stable having been claimer last time
* He has a 48 day absence to overcome as well
* Both these factors make him "3rd best" for me
* He does posses the ability to win this though
* VISCOUNT ROSSINI has a lot in his favour
* Well drawn - and able to race up with the pace
* He stays and is in good form
* He has to be one of the fittest in the race
* This horse has had no luck recenrly
* But for being hampered he may have won at Bath last time
* He would at least have been 2nd and that was a 0-68 handicap
* He has been unlucky on his last 3 runs
* Two runs ago again at Bath he was denied a clear run
* The ability is there as he has won Novice Handicaps over hurdles
* He is unexposed on Grass and could well be a big runner here

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A S C O T


ASCOT 3:05 - RIBBLESDALE STAKES (GROUP 2) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

7/2 Michita, 4/1 Cape Amber, 5/1 Dar Re Mi, 7/1 Changing Skies, 8/1 Kitty Matcham, 10/1 Arthur´s Girl, Sovereign´s Honour, 16/1 Hobby, Icon Project, 20/1 Elmaleeha.

SELECTION - DAR RE MI
SAVER - CHANGING SKIES

Pretty open Ribblesdale this year. Since 1997 we have had 4 winners come from the Oaks to win this and this year the 6th and 7th at Epsom take their chance. CAPE AMBER was 6th at Epsom when slightly hampered and MICHITA was 7th having reportedly hated the track. I think this years Oaks was a weak renewal. Both these were comfortably beaten and which one is superior today may come down to the weather as MICHITA wants it fast and CAPE AMBER wouldnt mind it soft. Statistically its not a brilliant
trends race. I wouldnt want horses coming from maidens. No maiden winner won this since Alydaress in 1989 and since then all 29 have been beaten. Therefore ELMALEEHA - ICON PROJECT and ARTHURS GIRL are rejected in trying to buck that worrying trend. I dont want HOBBY as we havent had a winner with 1 run that season since 1993. KITTY MATCHAM isnt good enough for me. If she was a serious horse surely she would have run in our Oaks and the fact she started 40/1 for France's oaks and was hammered in that race suggests limitations. Only 1 of the last 22 winners was a maiden like SOVEREIGN'S HONOUR but that winner had achieved far more than this horse and her stable dont have a brilliant record in the race.

I think the best plan of attack here is to take on the Oaks horses with DAR RE MI and CHANGING SKIES. The case for CHANGING SKIES is strong. She comes from the Cheshire Oaks as the 1994 and 2006 winners did and it was clear she hated the track at chester. This should be more up her street and I rate her as value.

DAR RE MI may be second string in the market behind her stablemate MITCHAM but it wasnt always like that as she was considered Gosden's Oaks filly at the startof the year and after winning at Sandown was 7/1 for the Oaks. She then got beaten in the Musidora but she was unlucky and should have been second and she was beaten by a specialist 10f horse (Lush Lashes) who had a far stronger profile that day. She came back from York with cuts and bruises after a rough race and Gosden chose to come here instead of the Oaks as he did not feel she would beat LUSH LASHES at Epsom. We now know that LUSH LASHES didnt stay at Epsom but she still beat MITCAHM and CAPE AMBER despite not staying and the break DAR RE MI has had may be in her favour. So to will the watering thats been done any any extra rain that falls on the track. She is from a Late Maturing family. Didnt race until November as a 2 year old and its clear that she was neither ready or able to have considered the Oaks. This may be her day.

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ASCOT 3:45 - GOLD CUP (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

11/8 Yeats, 2/1 Coastal Path, 10/1 Geordieland, 14/1 Allegretto, 16/1 Regal Flush, 20/1 Sagara, 25/1 Finalmente, Le Miracle, 33/1 Thundering Star, 66/1 Diamond Quest,

* The Ascot Gold Cup is a Group 1 race over 2m 4f
* It looks a 3 horse race
* The 2007 and 2006 champion YEATS attempts the hat trick
* He is mainly threatened by French raider COASTAL PATH
* GEORDIELAND comes here after winning the Yorkshire Cup
* All other runners are 25/1 and more
* Yesterday I nailed my colours to COASTAL PATH and I still feel that way
* YEATS and GEORDIELAND are now 7 year olds
* In the last 20 years Horses aged 7 or more have a weak 1-40 record
* Drum Taps won as a 7 year old in 1993 but it was 50 years to the previous one
* I dont really have a massive problem that they are 7 year olds
* I would have prefered both to have more than 1 run that season though
* GEORDIELAND is also more exposed than any recent winner
* The most exposed winner I can find had 22 runs a few years ago
* GEORDIELAND is having his 31st race
* He was 2nd last year but he was only aged 6 last year and had 3 prep runs
* He won the Yorkshire Cup last time and 2 past winners did that
* Both were far younger and very unexposed and he is not
* COASTAL PATH is a highly progressive French Stayer
* 6 past winner had under 7 runs as he has
* is dam produced Reefscape who was 2nd in this race in 2006
* I Prefer his youth - progression - age and think he can win

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ASCOT 4:20 - BRITANNIA STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 1m

7/1 Redford, 8/1 Flawed Genius, 10/1 Hurricane Hymnbook, 12/1 Rattan, Throne Of Power, 14/1 Commander Cave, Virtual, Yaddree, 16/1 Masaalek, Perks, 20/1 Fateh Field, Jaser, 25/1 Bellomi, Fervent Prince, Huzzah, Thebes, 33/1 Endless Luck, Fifteen Love, Jedediah, Love Galore, Slugger O´Toole, 40/1 Fathsta, 50/1 Amazing Star, Badger Or Bust, Siberian Tiger, 66/1 Billion Dollar Kid, Cobo Bay, Dubai Dynamo, 100/1 Proud Linus, Solent Ridge,

SELECTION - RATTAN 14/1
SAVER - MASAALEK 16/1

* The Brittania Handicap is over a Mile for 3 year olds
* There has been 17 renewals of this race
* 16 of the 17 winners managed a 1-2-3 place last time out
* This isnt one of those dirty handicaps with winners plotted up after duck eggs.
* These are seriously improving 3 year olds that are too good to be messed around with.
* You want a horse thats at least been 4th last time out
* Those that were not had a 0-177 record
* No horse won this that was beaten 6 or more lengths last time out (0-139)
* No past winner had more than 12 previous runs
* You dont want horses that step up from 6 furlongs - None have won this race
* Equally horses that drop from 10f races have a weak 1-68 record
* No horse won this with 5 or more runs that season
* Horses with 1 race this season have a 1-49 record
* Thats a poor record for a handicap with 17 renewals
* Horses that had that 1 run in a Handicap had a 0-18 record
* I would oppose all horses with 1 run this season
* You do not want a horse thats been tested in Group Class before.
* Far better to have an improving horse rather than a failed Pattern horse.
* I dont want horses coming from maidens
* No horse came from handicaps with 3 runs
* I want a horse thats run within a month
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more have a poor 1-35 record
* Last years 33/1 winner broke that trend but I see that as an exception
* Horses that came from 7f handicaps do win this
* However without a run within 15 days they have a 1-56 record
* Horses that come from 3yo handicaps over a Mile or more have a poor 2-158 record
* With 5 or more runs that becomes a 0-129 record
* Thats possibly as they do not extract enough improvement at the trip
* I would oppose all horses with 5 + runs that come from 3yo handicaps over 8f +
* Several outsiders fail that but so to do the following fancied horses
* FLAWED GENIUS - COMMANDER CAVE - JASER - YADDREE
* Horses that came from Listed Class or better had a 0-38 record trying to win this
* There are 2 horses that best fit the patterns of past winners
* RATTAN and MASAALEK
* M A S A A L E K has a strong profile for me
* R A T T A N has a strong profile as well
* 4 recent winners came here winning a maiden as he did
* He won the same Newmarket Maiden as the 1993 winner did

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ASCOT 4:55 - HAMPTON COURT STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f

9/2 Dr Faustus, 6/1 Kensington Oval, 13/2 King Of Rome, 8/1 Collection, 10/1 Unnefer, 12/1 Moynahan, Pampas Cat, 14/1 Central Station, Fanjura, 16/1 Staying On, 20/1 Feared In Flight, Khateeb, Without A Prayer, 25/1 Alfathaa, 50/1 Whitcombe Minister, 66/1 Latin Lad.

This is a fascinating little race but its hopeless statistically and little can be said about the 8 renewals. I have found 23 of these Listed races for 3 year olds over 10f at this time of year and that includes the 8 renewals of this race. You dont want horses that had over 6 runs as they score badly. All 22 lost in this race. FEARED IN FLIGHT fails that as does UNNEFER who also concedes a penalty to the whole field. In terms of trip jumpers I would oppose every horse that steps up from 8f or shorter unless they won a maiden at 8f. All the handicappers and pattern runners at 8 furlongs failed trying to step up in trip and only maiden winners managed it . Therefore I would add MOYNAHAN -FANJURA KHATEEB - WITHOUT A PRAYER and WHITCOMBE MINISTER to the negatives list. Last years winner came via a handicap and that was the first time thats happened. If you look at the 23 Listed Class races you find handicappers
struggle. Of the 23 winners 8 came from Listed and Group Class. There were 8 coming from maidens - 6 from conditions races and just 1 from handicaps and thats a possible issue for DR FAUSTUS - COLLECTION and STAYING ON. I wouldnt want any of the rank outsiders. KING OF ROME is fine statisically and is "3rd best" for me. He really is a horse that should be on the shortlist but as I knew he would not be the selection I kept him off the shortlist but he is very much a potential winner. In the end I shortlisted 2 horses.

PAMPAS CAT
KENSINGTON OVAL

Look at horses like KENSINGTON OVAL that won a 3yo Maiden on their only start. We have yet to have one in this race but horses that won their only race in a 3yo maiden have brilliant records. In all Listed Class races in June there were 9 horses that had the identical profile of KENSINGTON OVAL . These 9 runners finished W W W W W 2 2 3 4 and that tells me he can win

PAMPAS CAT is also a strong runner and I love his profile. He has done little wrong. Wins a maiden 5 lengths on his debut. He was then 3rd in the Chester Vase but we know he was far too inexperienced that day and statistically had a very difficult task. On his last and 3rd start he was 2nd in the Fairway Stakes to UNNEFER. That was the same race that Gosden used in 2000 with Port Vila who was beaten in that race and came here to win this race. Unnefer cops the penalty meaning PAMPAS CAT is better
off at the weights and is far less exposed. He hasnt achieved as much as some but he has a strong overall profile and his odds are far bigger than they should be.


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ASCOT 5:30 - KING GEORGE V STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 1m4f

13/2 Allied Powers, 7/1 Colony, 8/1 Missioner, Strategic Mission, 12/1 Daraahem, Fiulin, Ghimaar, 14/1 Moonquake, 16/1 Dream Desert, Trenchtown, 20/1 Indian Days, Ramona Chase, Savarain, Tighnabruaich, 25/1 Woolfall Treasure, 33/1 Drill Sergeant, Manyriverstocross, 40/1 The Betchworth Kid, 66/1 Better Hand.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 3 year olds rated 0-96
* Lighter raced horses are dominant in this race
* Horses that have between 2 and 6 runs are best
* Horses with 7 or more starts had a 2-102 record
*Those 2 wins were back in 1988 and 1990
* Since 1990 the record of runners with 7 or more starts is 0-79
* This takes out several including ALLIED POWERS
* He has been on the go since March and has 6 runs this year alone
* No past winner had over 4 races that season
* ALLIED POWERS looks to have peaked a bit too early
* He also comes from a Class 4 handicap and all 51 that tried that lost
* Horses that had raced in Listed or Group class before had a 1-62 record
* That was when Diaghilef won at 40/1 in 1995 and it was considered to be a Fluke result
* 20 of the last 21 winners finished 1-2-3-4 last time out
* Horses that came from 3yo handicaps are interesting
* Overall they score badly despite 8 overall winners
* None that came from handicaps had under 4 career starts
* Those that came from handicaps with 1 or 2 runs that year were 1-76
* I thought there were 4 horses that had the strongest profiles
* DARAAHEM - MOONQUAKE - FIULIN - TRENCHTOWN

SELECTION - DARAAHEM
SAVER - TRENCHTOWN

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