Friday December 19th

No Account Bet

Todays Selection

Wolverhampton 8.50

PAJADA 16/1 Each Way

RAWAABET 4/1 Saver

I had 3 potential bets today. The first was DEEP PURPLE in the 2.30pm at Ascot. Hard race. I suspect that despite thinking I have come up with an impressive if not risky angle as to why he should win I may be partly relying on ego and rose tinted spectacles in the race so I will leave him off the list of selections but suggest he has a
really similar profile to most past winners of this race and can win.

My second choice was obvious and really down to whether I wanted to go with a short priced horse. BARATARIA ought to win the 3.20 at Southwell but the decision to stake him has been taken out of my hands as the main danger is a non runner. Therefore at Southwell I feel the only sensible bet is a double on two short priced horses I just dont
see losing. BARATARIA (3.20pm) and CAME BACK (1pm) should
both win. Unoriginal. Uninspiring but I think both will win their races.

The selection is PAJADA each way at 16/1 but have the saver in the race on RAWAABET as he has a massive chance. PAJADA will leave some of you cold. She is a very poor filly thats gone 34 races without a win. On the upside you get 16/1 about her. She is in a unbelievably poor race. Shes fit and running well and there are very few fit horses
you can fancy in a race littered with serious negative profiles. This horse was seriously considered as account bet strength. I cant resist a larger than normal stake on her because the price is so big.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

I think there is one good bet at all 3 meetings today and
they are described above and elaborated on later. A Few
other things in the message. It starts simply at Southwell
and then Ascot followed by Wolverhampton.


S O U T H W E L L

There is not a lot I can do with most of the Southwell card today. It starts with a maiden race. Most of these are impossible to judge such is the nature of these races. There has been 63 similar maidens over a mile at this time of year. Fillies with 1 race had a poor 1-57 record so QUEEN'S FLIGHT wouldnt be my first choice and I didnt
think ALIYBEE - BEAT FASTER achieved enough first time out. MANANA MANANA - GIANT STRIDES dont appeal first time
out. Clearly SKY GATE and SUSSEX DANCER are big runners and I wouldnt rule out TARTAN GUNNA despite a 114 day break. He was dissapointing at Ayr on his debut but he was heavily backed that day and was reported then as a very good 2 year old and the gossip at the time was that he had beaten the Washington Singer winner Cry Freedom in work at home. Mark Johnston often introduces a nice 2 year old at Ayr. There has already been market support for him and
TARTAN GUNNA could easily be good enough to win.


The Selling race at 1pm is now unnatractive for me as we have a short price horse in CAME BACK who cant really be opposed. CAME BACK ought to win this comfortably on form and on the ratings. I wouldnt see much value in opposing him as you could just be running for 2nd place and the obvious horse for second GRIMES FAITH also has to step up from a 5f race which is not easy and undermines his chance of being second. Selection has to be CAME BACK. Would I rather bet him at 4/6 or lay him ? I think I would rather bet him. I dont select strong bets at short odds if I can help it but considering pieces of his form he is not
that bad a price and I think he will win.


I had the Nursery at 1.35pm down as too hard. Some of these had strange profiles yet I had found similar winners like them so I was not able to consider them as negatives. I do not think I can go with SICILIAN PINK or RAISE ALL IN both down 2f in trip. Horses like REBELWITHOUTACAUSE from 5f maidens are poor and the absence he has is also a big worry. GLAN LADY wouldnt interest me as a selling race winner. In all 37 similar races horses from sellers
had a 1-34 record which is poor - I looked at all low grade nurseries in December for all horses that had won selling races. There were 39 of these horses and only 1 managed to follow up in a nursery. I would not want her either. SENORA VERDE and LADY DUNHILL are out as fillies with long absences. KATIE HIGGINS and BULELLA dont really look horses I would want to bet. I think HALAAK is more on
the weak side of a shortlist place and possibly just not ready today and I suppose LADY GEM and TOP FLIGHT SPLASH are just about the most interesting runners but plenty of these have chances and I didnt think I had the weapons to open the race up.


Had to skip the 3yo handicap at 2.10pm as firstly we had a small tactical field and secondly there has only been one of these races run at this time of year. You dont see many 3yo handicaps now and this has meant its impossble to judge it statistically. Forced to pick I'd probably ignore the horses with long absences SPINNING RIDGE and BENEDICT SPIRIT.


SOUTHWELL 2.45

ARCHER ELECTRICAL HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-80) Distance 6f

4/1 Kensington, 9/2 Charles Parnell, 5/1 Musical Script, 5/1 Steel City Boy, 6/1 River Thames, 10/1 Don Pele, 10/1 He's A Humbug, 10/1 Resplendent Alpha, 20/1 Loose Caboose,
33/1 Only A Game.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-78 rated horses
* Southwell have had 26 similar races in December
* There has been 83 at other tracks
* ONLY A GAME is out with a long absence
* No horse came from a 3yo handicap as he does anyway
* LOOSE CABOOSE is out as a 3yo filly absent 35 days
* None that won were as exposed as her or had her absence
* DON PELE comes from a claimer which isnt a strong sign
* As he has no Southwell experience I am against him
* I dont want to bet horses that come from 5f races
* They have the worst strike rate in these races
* Lightyweights in Particular score badly from 5f
* HE'S A HUMBUG is rejected coming from a 5f race
* STEEL CITY BOY is rejected coming from a 5f race
* MUSICAL SCRIPT is also out from a 5f race
* He has no back class and has never won from his rating
* He has also ran just once here and unplaced
* The stats for this race suggest one of 4 will win
* River Thames -Kensington - Charles Parnell -Resplendent Alpha
* CHARLES PARNELL is fine statistically
* That said he is exposed and has a career high mark today
* He won a similar race last time but this is no easier off a new mark
* KENSINGTON is fine statistically but has never won from this mark
* He may also be better at 7f and his Course and distance form is weak
* RIVER THAMES is fine statistically and had excuses last time
* You have to be worried that he may not be a Southwell horse
* He hasnt run that well in his 2 previous races at Southwell
* That said I dont see that as very relevant and hes bred for here
* RESPLEDANT ALPHA is also fine statistically
* I just favour RIVER THAMES ahead of RESPLENDANT ALPHA
* Win bet on RIVER THAMES - Place bet on RESPLENDANT APLPHA

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SOUTHWELL 3.20

HOSPITALITY AT SOUTHWELL RACECOURSE
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 1m

4/5 Barataria, 6/1 Kingsholm, 10/1 Chosen Forever, 12/1 Elk Trail, 12/1 Elliwan, 12/1 Louisiade, 16/1 Spume, 66/1 Fitzwarren, 66/1 Government.

The Finale at Southwell (3.20) is a mile handicap. We have had about 57 of these races. I think BARATARIA is a good thing to win but now the favourite is out (This ones for Eddy) his price is now odds on. In 57 races Horses aged 3 that came from 7f handicaps did win but with 9 or more runs they had a 1-45 record which isnt very good. Both CHOSEN FOREVER and ELIWAN are 3 year olds up in trip and none that did manage it lost by as far as they did last time. Horses from selling races like KINGSHOLM had a 0-52 record in the 57 races so he is not for me. I think GOVERNMENT - FITZWARREN look outclassed. SPUME is hard to fancy having come from 4 consequetive heavy defeats. ELK TRAIL has 3 bad runs on the trot and LOUISIADE has 2 and also has to come from a 7f race. The safest choice would
have to be BARATARIA. there was no fluke about his last win. He absolutely destroyed his rivals and travelled like a dream and unless he runs below form for whatever reason I would expect him to win this race and he looks the strongest bet on the Southwell card

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A S C O T


The Handicaps at Ascot today dont interest me so I am leaving them alone. There are better races to spend my time on today. I also decided to leave the Maiden Hurdle at 12.45 alone. I came away thinking FISTRAL BEACH had the best profile and chance but I could not make any of his rivals negatives. I give most of the fancied runners chances and perhaps there is a bit too much strength in depth for comfort. I would prefer FISTRAL BEACH
to RUN FOR MOOR as a 7 year old with just 1 run in a Bumper. I cant rule out MIDNIGHT SAIL or PRESENTING FOREVER at all and thats too many already with serious chances that would stop me betting the favourite at a short price. There look to be 4 runners under 33/1 but any of the 4 could win for me and I would consider betting MIDNIGHT SAIL place only if he was bigger than evens. Smells a good sort of maiden hurdle and I am ducking it.


ASCOT 1.55

MITIE KENNEL GATE NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (4yo+) 2m

7/2 Golan Way, 4/1 Bergo, 4/1 Dee Ee Williams, 6/1 Shamari, 7/1 Wendel, 8/1 Alfie Flits, 9/1 Door Boy, 14/1 Medermit.

This is a quality Novice Hurdle with a long history. Its a Grade 2 race and as the Post say you couldnt rule any of the 8 out. If you look at the trends in this race the last 16 winners all came from 2m races. None of the winners dropped in trip which is why I am taking out DOOR BOY and MEDERMIT. None of the past winners came from maiden hurdles. This is a Graded race after all so SHAMARI
is opposed and WENDEL comes from a class 4 track when almost all past winners came from a class 1 track. I dont see any other negatives and we are left with half the field. Any of the other 4 could win. GOLAN WAY keeps improving and is unbeaten and may just have a tiny edge but I am really not able to split the four.

ASCOT 2.30

BGC NOEL NOVICES' CHASE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m3f

7/4 Buck The Legend, 3/1 Deep Purple, 4/1 Panjo Bere,
9/2 Naiad Du Misselot, 8/1 Turkish Surprise

* This is a Graded Novice Chase over 19f
* There has been 16 renewals of this race since 1992
* I wondered whether BUCK THE LEGEND was a bad favourite
* He comes from a handicap
* In 16 renewals horses doing that were 0-12- none came that way
* He also lacks any Graded Form
* 14 of the 16 winners had Graded form and 9 had Grade 1 form
* Have a Look at what most past winners did 9 months ago
* Thats the time of the previous years Cheltenham festival
* This way we can compare past winners with todays runners
* These are where the past winners were 9 months before the race
* The 2007 winner was running in a Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham
* The 2006 winner was running in a Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham
* There was no renewal in 2005
* The 2004 winner was running in Grade 1 chases 9 months before
* The 2003 winner was running in a Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham
* The 2002 winner was running in a Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham
* The 2001 winner was running in Grade 1 hurdles elsewhere
* The 2000 winner was running in a Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham
* The 1999 winner was placed in the County Hurdle with a high weight

You tend to find that almost every past winner in recent years had shown Grade 1 form over hurdles or fences or high class graded form in handicaps. They they went chasing and won this race. I think you are looking for a horse like that with serious back class.As BUCK THE LEGEND comes from handicaps and has never been near a Graded race I am against him. TURKISH SURPRISE has also not had any Gradef form and his chase experience do far can be
summed up as 4 fences before he fell. You cant rule him out but he isnt for me. PANJO BERE also lacks any Graded form and he also comes from a small track when most others came from Grade 1 tracks. This leads me to the conclusion that there are just 2 in this race that have the correct profiles of many past winners.

* DEEP PURPLE who ran in a Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham
* NAIAD DU MISSELOT who won the Coral Cup 9 months ago

As to what will actually win it will come down to Jumping and jockeyship so luck will play a factor. There is the possibility of betting one and saving on the other but in a race that can only be done statistically a certain amount. The rest is down to jumping. Happy with both of these horses though. In the end I decided DEEP PURPLE was the best of the two as he was marginally better over hurdles and has at least won a chase. The selection is
DEEP PURPLE to win and only Naiad Du Misselot scares me.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 6.50

DINE & DANCE IN THE RINGSIDE APPRENTICE
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 1m1f103y

4/1 Moment Of Clarity, 5/1 Jubilant Note, 6/1 Imco Tendence, 8/1 Bailieborough, 8/1 Formidable Guest, 10/1 Sly Tiger, 14/1 Fandango Boy, 14/1 Moyoko, 16/1 Rigat, 20/1 Alfredtheordinary,25/1 Cherri Fosfate, 25/1 Professor Twinkle, 33/1 Nota Liberata.

* This is an Apprentice race over an extended 9f
* There has only been 2 similar Apprentice races in December
* I have looked at all low grade handicaps around this trip
* NOTA LIBERTA is out with 1 run this season
* FANDANGO BOY and CHERRI FOSFATE look out of form
* I want to oppose the horses that have been hurdling
* Not sure how they do to be honest but I dont like them
* SLY TIGER has been hurdling in Ireland
* He looks underraced to me and hardly a standard profile
*ALFREDTHEORDINARY has been in selling hurdles
* He doesnt look like a horse I could bet
* I would oppose PROFESSOR TWINKLE absent 417 days
* I would oppose RIGAT absent 334 days
* Fillies have an interesting record in these races
* Exposed fillies with over 20 career runs were just 1-124
* MOYOKO and FORMIDABLE GUEST fail that
* Fillies aged 5 or more were 0-82 and MOYOKO also fails that
* I want to oppose JUBILANT NOTE as he comes from 14f
* November and December have 257 low grade handicaps at 9f + 10f
* Horses that came from 13f or more were 0-73 in these races
* As JUBILANT NOTE has just 1 run since September he is out
* IMCO TENDENCE is hard to judge with just Irish form
* He doesnt look to have either a good or bad profile
* I would be neutral about his chance
* MOMENT OF CLARITY has a solid profile
* BAILEBOROUGH has a solid profile

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WOLVERHAMPTON 8.50

SPONSOR A RACE BY CALLING 01902 390009
CLASSIFIED STAKES (CLASS 7) (3yo+,0-45) 1m141y

11/4 Elkhart Lake, 9/2 Rawaabet, 5/1 Abbeygate, 6/1 Mocha Java, 12/1 Autumn Charm, 12/1 Hi Spec, 12/1 Honeycott, 14/1 Pajada, 20/1 Chiefofthemowhawks, 25/1 Amber Moon, 25/1 Ginger Minx, 33/1 Poppy Red, 33/1 Rich James.

* This is a 0-45 Classified race over 8.5f
* There has been 52 similar races around this trip
* Several of these make no appeal at all
* POPPY RED is a 3yo filly thats out of form and underraced
* GINGER MINX is a 3yo filly thats up in distance
* She also finished last in her last 2 races and looks unfanciable
* AMBER MOON is out as a 3yo filly with just 3 runs
* In 52 races all horses that had under 5 runs were 0-34
* Horses that had under 7 runs had a 1-75 record
* RICH JAMES has several serious problems to overcome
* He comes from a 3yo handicap and no runner did that
* That was yesterday at Southwell when he was tailed off
* HONEYCOTT is a 3yo filly that looks beatable
* She comes from a 3yo handicap and no winner did that
* She has a 148 day absence and no winner did that
* As she was recent sold for 1,500gns I doubt she will win
* AUTUMN CHARM doesnt really appeal to me
* She is a 3yo filly thats been absent 45 days
* She is also up in trip and may be badly drawn in stall 3
* Talking of the draw there has been some strange results lately
* The last 14 races over Course and Distance with 10 + runners
* The winning stalls were 6-11-12-11-7-13-12-12-6-5-10-11-13-13
* No horse drawn 1-2-3-4 has won any of the last 14 races
* These 4 horses drawn the lowest are all negatives anyway
* Autumn Charm - Honeycott - Amber Moon - Chiefofthemowhawks
* CHIEFOFTHEMOWHAWKS has just 2 runs since June
* He comes here well beaten in several recent races
* MOCHA JAVA has to go with just 1 race this season
* No horse as old as him or as exposed as him had under 3 ruyns
* He also has a nasty 64 day break and has downgraded stables
* I dont want ABBEYGATE who ought to lack fitness
* First of all he is a 7 year old absent 39 days
* He has only had 1 run since March 2008 and was hammered in that
* Fillies that came from 7f or lower had a 2-65 record
* None of those were exposed like HI SPEC
* None were aged 4 or more like HI SPEC
* None were beaten as far as HI SPEC last time
* HI SPEC has also had just 1 run since June and looks weak

* PAJADA - RAWAABET -ELKHART LAKE

* ELKHART LAKE has to come from a 6f race
* Only 1 of the 52 winners did that (1-43 record)
* That horse was an exposed older horse
* ELKHART LAKE is only a lightly raced 3yo
* That said he really caught the eye at Kempton 2 runs ago
* He was cantering all through the race but couldnt get a run
* He was gambled the next day at Great Leighs but flopped
* The question is whether he is mentally mature enough
* He will need to be trying to step up from 6f to 8.5f
* There has been 546 of these races at any time of year
* 3 year olds that came from 6f races were 8-204
* When they ran within 2 weeks they were 0-56
* ELKHART LAKE fails that and he is far from safe statistically
* I would shortlist him on his Kempton runs 2 starts ago
* I dont see him as the selection though
* RAWAABET has spent 5 runs hurdling and had success
* Whether hurdling is a "pro" or "Con" I dont know
* He is fit and well handicapped though and acts here
* RAWAABET has to be a big player
* He is a "must" saver
* PAJADA has a strong profile despite a 0-34 career record
* Its hard to go with a filly thats 0-34 in her career
* That said she has a big chance on her profile and is shortlisted
* Liked her on video last time and she has the ability to win this
* Exposed fillies that ran within 7 days in handicaps were 4-8
* I think around 16/1 she has a massive chance of a first win
* PAJADA E/W 16/1 with a saver on RAWAABET

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