Saturday 26th July

No Account Bet

I have gone with a standard Saturday message today. Plenty of races with selections shortlists, mentions , negatives and a mixture of different things as you often get in
Saturday messages. I see my chances of Stronger bets on Sunday to be honest. I dont see a horse at a big price that I can make a Full bet today. I Should be able to
specialise a bit more tomorrow and try and find a decent priced account bet. All I want to do today is highlight a winner or win money on the day and keep things ticking over. Havent got a classic today - Havent tried for one - but 2 selections stand out.

Todays 2 Selections

Newmarket 4.40 - Always Bold

Newmarket 2.55 - Grande Annee

ALWAYS BOLD is my strongest bet today. I Wont make him an account bet as he is only around 6/4 and thats plenty short enough but I think he will both win today and at
Goodwood next week. I have added Grand Annee to the selections. There Is more guesswork involved with her so I am not as confident but she is a much bigger price and not a strong a stake is needed. Happy to get today out of the way as certain Saturday's can throw too much at you preventing you from finding big priced winners. Going to have a few more things in my favour in Sundays message and thats where I want to strike harder. Next Message Tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


SIR NOD was a non runner yesterday having not entered the stalls. In the end we had just the one bet a loser on KATIE BOO. I think the reasons for her defeat were
pretty simple. I overrated her and she wasnt good enough. She didnt get a brillliant ride to be honest and nothing much fell right for her but even had she had an inspired
ride she wouldnt have won and I am guilty of overrating her a little. Once she lost we looked forward to SIR NOD. We had the price and it would have been fascinating to
see if he could have won but He did not run. The commentator mistakenly called his name in running but he miss read the colours and the horse never took part in the race and although full stakes were refunded we never got the chance to turn a losing day into a winning one.


YORK

It is easier to get into a can on Baked Beans using only your Thumb than it is to sort of cards like YORK. This track occasionally has some lovely races and can be quite workable but othertimes it has to be one of the hardest cards in Racing and for the life of me I cant see anything at this track today that I am confident about. I would just prefer PIPEDREAMER

NEWCASTLE 2.20

3/1 Royal Executioner, 7/2 Kudu Country, 11/2 Tapis Wizard, 6/1 Green Passion, 10/1 Tale Of Silver, 12/1 Sharp Sovereign, 14/1 Castle Myth, Richo, 20/1 Kladester, 25/1 Mister Bombastic, Warrior One, 33/1 Dark Moment, Hartley, K´Gari, Martha´s Girl, Paddyntrev Bakfavs, 66/1 Hawkeyethenoo.

This is an Auction Maiden thats over 7f. We have had 9 renewals of this race. Its a race that has been dominated
by unraced and once raced horses. If you look at the record of horses that had 2 or more runs in this race you
find a 1-53 record and thats quite poor. That stat wouldnt impress me too much but ROYAL EXECUTIONER
the favourite fails it and I want to oppose him for that reason and his draw in stall 2. I think horses drawn 1-2-3
may have problems here. Newcastle have had 29 races over this distance since 2007. In those 29 races horses
that were drawn 1-2-3 racked up a desperately poor 1-82 record. Thats why I am against ROYAL EXECUTIONER
and the other low drawn runners K'GARI and SHARP SOVEREIGN. Beaing in mind the poor record of horses
with 2 or more runs I would also oppose RICHO - TALE OF SILVER - Tapas Wizard and Dark Moment. All 44
horses that came here having lost their last race by over 10 lengths lost suggesting KLADESTER and CASTLE
MYTH may have too much improvement to find. Drawn high I think the best options here are GREEN PASSION
and KADU COUNTRY who best fit the patterns of past winners

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ASCOT 2.35

4/1 Kissing The Camera, 9/2 African Skies, 5/1 Danidh Dubai, 8/1 Sea Of Leaves, 9/1 Rose Diamond, 10/1 April Pride, 12/1 Pyrrha, 14/1 Ares Choix, Rosabee, 20/1 Excellerator, Moss Likely, Oasis Breeze, 33/1 Carina Nebula, Royal Raider, 40/1 Peper Harow, Sweet Applause,

This is a 6f Group 3 race for 2yo fillies. Huge field. Not an attractive race. Wont waste much time
on it. The long history shows every past winner had under 5 starts and fnished 1st 2nd 3rd last
time out.I would add a couple of other ideas. I would ignore horses drawn 1-2-3. I would also ignore
horses that come from 2yo maidens with 2 or more career starts. This leaves 3 shortlisted as passing
the above trends. These are Danidh Dubai - Kissing The Camera - Excellerator but I suspect you are
probably wasting your time here.

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Newmarket 2.55

7/4 Roaring Forte, 7/2 Ellemujie, 5/1 Grande Annee, 10/1 Giant Love, Shamayel, 12/1 Storm Sir, 16/1 Always Ready.

* 3yo Handicap over a Mile for 0-87 rated horses
* Favourite ROARING FORTE has a weak profile
* No similar race went to horses with 1 run that year up from 7f (0-23)
* SHAMAYEL is a filly coming up from a 7f race
* Thats not something that has happened much at all in similar races
* ELLEMUJIE has a good chance but you could have said that about him before
* He is still 0-15 since he won his maiden and he looks exposed
* GRANDE ANNEE has a very strong profile for me
* Fillies with the exact profile as her had a 4-7 record in similar races
* She won a soft ground maiden but I think she won "despite" the ground
* Her breeding screams fast ground and she looks very bettable off 75
* She could have been well placed in this race
* Any doubts about the absence - ground - inexperience dont worry me
* If there is one horse thats thrown in her its her
* GRAND ANNEE looks well worth a bet in this

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ASCOT 3.05

9/4 Perfect Stride, 4/1 Yaddree, 6/1 Always A Rock, Yamal, 8/1 Lazy Days, 12/1 Fathsta, 14/1 Navajo Joe,
16/1 Insaaf, 20/1 Arctic Cape, Strategic Mission, Transfer, 33/1 Al Muheer.

This is a mess statistically. Dont know how to judge Perfect Stride who comes from the 2000 Guineas
to a handicap. Statistically thats inconclusive with the very very few that tried similar things losing. Its
a race with just a 2 year history. I feel FATHSTA is too exposed. Both winners of this race came from
the 8f handicap at Newmarket recently. ALWAYS A ROCK does that and perhaps thats a better sign
than a failed classic runner with a long absence

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NEWCASTLE 3.25 - BARCLAYS COMMERCIAL BEESWING HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-95) 7f

9/2 Zero Tolerance, 13/2 City Of The Kings, Ezdeyaad, 7/1 Countdown, Game Lad, 8/1 Flipando, 10/1 Sir Xaar, 12/1 Passion Fruit, 14/1 Lone Wolfe, Majuro, 20/1 Lucky Dance, Something, 25/1 Gunfighter

The Beeswing Handicap isnt easy. Its a 0-95 over 7 furlongs. I suppose I should refer to the same draw
stats as the opening race at Newcastle. Newcastle have had 29 races over this distance since 2007. In those
29 races horses that were drawn 1-2-3 racked up a desperately poor 1-82 record. SOMETHING has the
worst draw and also badly drawn is FLIPANDO. I oppose both. SOMETHING comes from a 5f race
anyway which would automatically rule him out and FLIPANDO doesnt look to be at his best distance.
The history of similar races here tells me that I need at least 3 runs this season so LONE WOLFE and
MAJURO are rejected. LUCKY DANCE is out with a long absence and a big weight which looks too
tall and order. CITY OF THE KINGS is out. Horses from 3yo handicaps like him struggled (1-31) and
none came from any kind of 10 race and he also has that to overcome. CITY OF THE KINGS also has
his first run for Geoff Harker and I dont like them when they do that as horses are very often given quiet
runs so their new connections can have a look at them and plan their campaigns and as a 90 rated horse
I can see Geoff Harker doing just that and he comes with multiple concerns. I doubt PASSION FRUIT
is up to winning a 0-95 these days although she was 4th in this last year. GUNFIGHTER has refused to
race on his last 2 runs so he has to be avoided. ZERO TOLERANCE is hard to read or to Plot statistically
as he has just run in Ireland. My best guess would be that he wont win this race. I dont like him back in trip
to 7 furlongs and I dont like an 8 year old with almost a months absence. In his 44 race career he has never
ran at 7f before.I think this is destined for one of 4 horses in Ezdeyaad -Countdown - Game Lad-Sir Xaar.
I have no problem with any of these statistically. Personally I think EZDEYAAD has a lot to prove as he is
inexperienced and he is up in class having been beaten in lower grade last time out. He isnt out of this but he
has to improve again and I do not like that. GAME LAD has chances but I am not yet convinced he is ready t
to win this season especially on this ground. I like COUNTDOWN and SIR XAAR Both ran in this race
in 2007. SIR XAAR was 2nd and COUNTDOWN was a little dissapointing back in 7th. COUNTDOWN
was on a hat trick last year and had just won a heavy ground handicap and that may have taken the edge off
him. This year COUNTDOWN has far less weight than he did last year and must have a chance. The one
thing that would worry you a bit with COUNTDOWN is 7f and fast ground. He hasnt yet shown form
good enough for me on fast ground at 7f to win this and although better treated than he was in last years
race it does worry me. SIR XAAR was runner up in this race last year. He runs from a 7lbs lower mark this
year which is interesting. Before he ran in last years rae he had a 3 months break and he has not got that
this year and is a lot fitter. The issue for me with SIR XAAR is how likely he is to be able to run his best
race of the season. This is a horse whose trainer says wants this ground and is best at this trip yet also says
that SIR XAAR has all the ability but just doesnt always want to show it and is a law unto himself. If he
runs in this race like he did in last years race he will probably win but he is just as likely to run down the
field and never threaten to win. One of those Enigma horses hard to back. I still think SIR XAAR is worth
a small bet because if he uses that ability last years race suggests he has enough to win this.

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Newmarket 3.30

7/2 Meydan Princess, 6/1 Chantilly Tiffany, Dubai Power, Musical Beat, 8/1 Kay Es Jay, Medicea Sidera, Medici Pearl, Silca Chiave, 20/1 Oceana Blue, 25/1 Lady Aquitaine, 33/1 Gone Fast.

* Fillies Handicap for 0-95 rated horses
* Lethal race and only 4 similar races run at this time of year
* Statistically there are far to few similar races to be safe
* I dont think a safe profile exists
* Kay Es Jay and Musical Beat dont interest me
* The favourite Meydan Princess has an absence and is up in trip
* Silca Chiave is impossible to read and has no handicap experience
* Several other fillies have absences and other issues
* I see no reason why OCEANA BLUE 20/1 cant win
* She was a Joint account bet at 20/1 recently with Just Like A Woman
* She ran 7th that day but I thought she run quite well
* Shes 20/1 here and could pop up. This race is no harder
* Liked her a lot before that run - enough to make her a full bet

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ASCOT 3.40

5/1 Redford, 11/2 Lovelace, 6/1 Musaalem, 10/1 King´s Apostle, Mastership, 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Zaahid, 16/1 Artimino, Giganticus, 25/1 Dhaular Dhar, Jedburgh, Laa Rayb, 28/1 Underworld, 33/1 Presumptive, South Cape, 40/1 Big Noise, Burnwynd Boy, Masai Moon, Slugger O´Toole, Thebes, 50/1 Capricorn Run, Dream Theme, Excusez Moi, Vainglory, 66/1 Gallantry, Mujood, Plum Pudding, Russki,

* Tote International Handicap. Looks Lethal. I am following these stats
* 10 renewals of this race
* Horses with 21 + runs were 1-101 so I would oppose these
* No past winner had 1 run this season
* Horses aged 6 and more are weak
* Avoid horses that ran in the last 2 weeks as they are 0-81
* Avoid horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time
* I would ignore all horses coming from conditions races
* I Would oppose horses from 3yo handicaps
* Horses aged 3 struggled in this race with a 1-41 record
* Horses aged 3 won at other tracks in similar races
* I would oppose 3 year olds coming from 6f races
* I would oppose horses with 9st 5lbs that had a months absence
* There has been 94 handicaps in July at 7f in Class 2 and 3
* None of the 94 winners had under 4 career starts
* I think there are 5 horses that can claim to be strong statistically
* Redford - Lovelace -King's Apostle -Zaahid -Artimino
* I couldnt have Artimino myself with 2 runs this season
* Not least when his trainer says he is a "stuffy type"
* I am revising the shortlist to 4 horses
* REDFORD - LOVELACE - KINGS APOSTLE - ZAAHID

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ASCOT 4.20 - KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

8/11 Duke Of Marmalade, 11/4 Youmzain, 9/1 Lucarno, 12/1 Macarthur, Papal Bull, 14/1 Ask
80/1 Petara Bay, 150/1 Red Rock Canyon.

The King George is a poor trends race but at least there are 8 runners and only 6 possible winners.
DUKE OF MARMALDE is obvious but he is odds on and there is a stamina doubt and with 8
runners I would rather go each way. ASK is weak statistically in so much as the last 21 winners
all placed last time out and he hasnt. LUCARNO and PAPAB BULL Were 1st and 2nd in the
same race at Newmarket. Thats not a great trial race - in fact all 13 horses that won that same race
and all 16 horses that ran in it came out and lost in this race and thats what LUCARNO is trying
to do - yet we have had a 5 year old beaten into second in that race come out and win which is
what PAPAL BULL is doing. Back in 1997 SWAIN won this with the same profile as Papal Bull
beating the horse that beat him in the same Newmarket race (Shantou). For me PAPAL BULL is
just a little bit more interesting than Lucarno. I see both as having some sort of e/w chance. Last
year in this race YOUMZAIN came 2nd on ground that wasnt ideal with a preparation that left
something to be desired so he must have a massive chance this year. I suppose PAPAL BULL
is better value than YOUMZAIN but the latter has the better chance but I would see one of them
as a reasonably good each way alternative to the favourite . YOUMZAIN each way suggested.

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NEWMARKET 4:40 - BALLYGALLON STUD, IRELAND NSPCC HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-85) 1m6f175y

6/4 Always Bold, 3/1 Spring Dream, 6/1 Kiribati King, 7/1 Brief Goodbye, 8/1 Stringsofmyheart, 12/1 Generous Jem.

* This is a 0-85 handicap for horses rated 0-81
* I predict that ALWAYS BOLD will win his next two races
* I think he will win this easily - assuming he stays
* I think he will stay but thats my only fear
* I think he will then win an Glorious Goodwood next week
* He is in a 12f and a 14f race at Goodwood
* Typical Mark Johnston to go to Goodwood with a very recent win
* I think this 3 year old is far more progressive than every other horse
* ALWAYS BOLD has just won a 0-85 race at Hamilton by 4 lengths
* The Mark Johnstone record with these horses in these races is superb
* Look at all handicaps in July at 12 furlongs and More
* Mark Johnstons record with 3 year olds that just won an all aged handicap :
* When they have under 13 career starts and a lightly races they are best
* The stable record is 11 winners from 17 runners
* The 17 runners Johnston ran under these conditions had this record
* W W W W 3 W 2 W W 2 2 W W 4 W 3 W
* SPRING DREAM is an exposed 5 year old mare
* Shes never won from this high a mark before or in a race this good
* I dont see her giving ALWAYS BOLD 8lbs weight
* I cant have an 8 year old like BRIEF GOODBYE giving us weight
* GENEROUS JEM has only run twice since last September
* Not a good sign for a Mare aged 5 with 10st weight
* Both her last runs were below form as is her stable as well
* The other 3yo KRIBATI KING is nowhere near as progressive
* KRIBATI KING has already achieved less despite twice as exposed
* STRINGSOOFMYHEART comes here after a poor run
* She is also not particularly well handicapped
* I Think ALWAYS BOLD should win this comfortably
* After that I expect he will be well fancied at Goodwood next week

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ASCOT 4.55

7/1 Bomber Command, 8/1 Paveroc, 9/1 Rambling Light, 10/1 Golden Desert, Hazzard County, 11/1 Daaweitza, 12/1 Blue Java, Carcinetto, King´s Bastion, Middlemarch, Tiger Dream, 14/1 Secret Night, 16/1 Compton´s Eleven, Jilly Why, Nice To Know, 20/1 Ninefineirishmen, Southandwest, 33/1 Kensington, Obezyana, 40/1 Salient

* This is a Ladies handicap with a 10 year history
* Its a Hideous race as you can see from the SP's of all 10 winners
* 33/1 20/1 33/1 20/1 33/1 20/1 11/1 11/1 12/1 14/1
* The trends suggest you must have the following from any bet
* At least 13 runs as those that didnt were 0-48
* I want at least 5 runs this season
* I would avoid all 3 year olds
* I would avoid all horses aged 6 or more
* I would avoid all females
* All past winners came from all aged handicaps
* I would oppose all horses with 10st 8lbs or more
* This leaves a shortlist of 4 runners
* GOLDEN DESERT - BOMBER COMMAND - KINGS BASTION - SALIENT

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NEWCASTLE 5.05

7/4 Thornaby Green, 5/1 Malguru, 6/1 Rotuma, 7/1 Zaplamation, 8/1 Mozayada, 10/1 Martingrange Lass
Volaticus, 12/1 Galloway Mac, 20/1 Mister Maq

* This is an Apprentice Handicap over 10f
* Newcastle has had 2 renewals
* July and August have seen 49 similar races
* Horses with under 5 runs had a 0-29 record
* MARTINGALE is out with 3 runs and has to come from 6f
* MISTER MAQ is rejected with just 1 run this season
* I dont fancy GALLOWAY MAC aged 8 absent 178 days
* ZAPALATION is out from a 3yo handicap
* MALGURU is a former account bet winner
* We were on when he won at Ayr at 10/1 over 9f
* I dont think he will stay this far
* He has since lost at 10f at Ayr
* This is an extended 10f at a stiffer track
* His sire still hasn had a 10f winner yet
* MALGURU also has a months absence which wont help
* VOLATICUS has a chance but not my choice
* I think there are better horses in the race that are also fitter
* I feel MOZAYADA is in the same boat
* I would think there are two superior horses here
* THORNABY GREEN - ROTUMA
* THORNABY GREEN just shades it
* He looks a good each way double selection as well

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