Friday 26th September

No Account Bet

Today's 2 Selection

Southwell 4.45 - GRASSCUTTER 2/1

Wolverhampton 6.50 - RIVER KENT 4/1


I might break my drought on the account in a 2 year old
race tomorrow of all things. I very nearly went with an
account bet tonight at Wolverhampton in the 6.50pm on
RIVER KENT but because of the nature of that race
it would have meant a second message and a call back
and I did not really want to do. Advising big bets 7 hours
before the race at Wolves is a mad thing to do so I have
decided to make him a strong selection only today. He
looks the one for me in this race and is so far my most
confident bet of the week.

Ascot and Haydock are not really meetings that offer me
much today. I have included 5 races this afternoon there
but I never considered having a bet there today. The two
meetings I liked were Wolves this evening where I like
the first two races and the Maiden Hurdle at Southwell
where GRASSCUTTER is my second selection. I had
hoped he may have been a better price. I cant pretend he
comes with maximum confidence as his main danger is
unraced but he will run well and go very close and he
does have the best profile by some way and I felt he was
worth a bet without him being worthy of a huge stake.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Yesterdays Selection MAKE MY DREAM ran very well and was
beaten only a Neck into second place at 11/2. We were finishing a lot faster than the winner who got first run and who is a hard horse to pass here and in the end jjust a little unlucky we didnt get the win as I am sure he would have won with a few more strides. Cant be unhappy about the strong race he ran but a little frustrated he
couldnt get up and win. If they ran the same race tomorrow I wouldhave the same bet and I think many others would as well.


SOUTHWELL 4:45 - TOTESPORT.COM MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS ) (4yo+) 2m4f110y

9/4 Great Endeavour, 11/4 Grasscutter, 11/2 Cross Compliance, 7/1 Dashing Romeo,10/1 Miss Carroll, 12/1 Billie Magern, 14/1 High Profit, 25/1 Falcons Theatre,
Inspector Frost, Quartz Du Montceau, 40/1 Ice Hunter, Sir Leonard.

SELECTION - GRASSCUTTER

This is an interesting Maiden Hurdle over an extended 20f. There has been 42 maiden hurdles in September and October between 19f and 22f . Plenty of these come from Bumpers today. One of the best type of horses to oppose
are females from Bumpers so MISS CARROLL is easily opposed. No horse that came from Bumpers with 1 previous run before won any of the 42 races so I would rather avoid CROSS COMPLIANCE. More than happy to oppose a 4 year old seasonal debutant coming from Bumpers so BILLIE MAGERN is
also opposed. HIGH PROFIT comes with high risk and hasnt shown much. DASHING ROMEO has Irish form and is impossible to read now he is trained in Wales. The market will have a better idea than I will about him. The favourite
GREAT ENDEAVOUR is an unraced 4 year old. These have a 2-32 record but a 2-8 record when they start under 10/1 and I have no problems at all with him and he is a clear danger. I have to prefer GRASSCUTTER though. He may have
won on his hurdling debut back in May when he Fell 3 hurdles out but since then he has a 2-2-2 profile gaining valuable hurdling craft and experience. The stable
had a welcome 10/1 winner yesterday and it will take a good performance for an unraced 4 year old like Great Endeavour or a Bumper runner to beat a horse like
GRASSCUTTER and I think he is the best bet in this race.

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A S C O T @ H A Y D O C K


I Can not do much with the early HAYDOCK races. The first 4 races there are 2yo maidens and a 2yo Nursery and juvenile races offer little so pointless trying to fathom out the unfathomable. I thought hard about doing the selling race at 4.20. The truth of the matter is these races are so rare at this time of year there are no
angles. If I looked at other times of year there were some angles but not as relevant as they would be around this time. Had a look at the race and there is no doubt that despite pulling up last time and despite being a filly with an absence I would take the view that STRINGSOFMYHEART was the class horses and better class
than her opposition and I would have gone with her.



ASCOT 2.10 - EBF RATCLIFFES CLASSIFIED STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-90) 1m2f

7/2 Australia Day, 9/2 Bandama, 7/1 Amanjena, Fair Gale, Hustle, 8/1 Amanda Carter, Samsons Son, 10/1 Trans Siberian, 14/1 Cheshire Prince, Folly Lodge.

This is a Classified race over 10 furlongs. Its not a great race statistically and you can see from the 10 runners they are all rated within 7lbs of each other.
There has been about 46 of these races in September and October. The weakest runners appear to be the fillies that have absences so AMANDA CARTER and AMANJENA wouldnt be top of my list. Equally the runners that step up in trip from 7f and 8f also struggle and none won any of the 6 Ascot renewals so I see FOLLY LODGE and TRANS SIBERIAN as having problems. I dont like the recent form of CHESHIRE PRINCE and no horse dropped in trip like him when so out of form. I think FAIR GALE has questions to answer down in trip
as well. Horses aged 3 like him that come down in trip had a weak 1-32 record. I wouldnt see any other negatives in this race. I would have to shortlist 4 horses
in Australia Day -Bandama -Hustle - Samsons Son. I am a little uncomfortable that BANDAMA has a 55 day absence especially as he is an exposed 5 year old that hasnt won from that absence before. I do like SAMSONS SON and its also interesting he comes from the same prep race as the 2004 winner did when he was unplaced at Newbury last week as was the 2004 winner. I think he is quite overpriced at 14/1. AUSTRALIA DAY has a strong chance but unconvinced
that he is great value around 100/30. I like HUSTLE a lot as well but overall I felt SAMSONS SON was possibly the value.

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ASCOT 2.45 - JEAN BRYANT MEMORIAL HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 6f

11/4 Speedy Dollar, 5/1 Laddies Poker Two, 7/1 Spanish Bounty, 10/1 Film Maker,12/1 Aye Aye Digby, Hadaf, Masada, 14/1 Great Charm, Striking Spirit, 20/1
Silver Wind, 25/1 Berbice, Exhibition, Pavershooz, Pretty Bonnie, Spirit Of Sharjah, Van Bossed, 33/1 Nacho Libre, 50/1 Mount Pleasure.

Not much you can say here as there has only been 13 similar races run at this time of year. Its a 3yo handicap over 6f for horses rated 0-100 so its a classy event. If you look at the 13 races like this that have taken
place before at this time of year there are so interesting Angles. All 49 that came from 5f races lost. Fillies did badly with a 0-25 record in this race. No filly won with under 9 runs anyway. You want a horse in good form that doesnt come here from a heavy defeat. All 13 winners ran within the last month as well. All 34 that came from conditions races lost as well. There are 3 horses in this race that pass all the above trends. These are
SPANISH BOUNTY - FILM MAKER - AYE AYE DIGBY. As I think
you want a high draw - which results do suggest here I would have to take FILM MAKER off the shortlist. Therefore I am down to two runners with ideal profiles in SPANISH BOUNTY and AYE AYE DIGBY. Both are around the 16/1 mark and betting both will be around a 7/1 winner if either
win and thats the suggestion much as I think the race is too hard and wont be bothering myself.

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ASCOT 3.20 - WATERSHIP DOWN STUD SALES RACE (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f110y

6/4 Penny´s Gift, 14/1 Golden Destiny, Gower Valentine, Rafiqa, 16/1 Crystal Moments, Foundation Room, Prowl, Rosy Mantle, 20/1 Accede, Ballyalla, Multiplication, 25/1 Bouggie Daize, Gal Aloud, Positivity, Poyle Meg, Red Kyte, Shiva Adiva, 33/1 Leadenhall Lass, Princess Hannah, 40/1 Amber Sunset, Impressionist Art, Jewelled Reef, Russian Rave, Today´s The Day, 50/1 Order Order, 100/1 Damassin, 150/1 Inis Boffin,200/1 Broughtons Paradis, Lady Angelica.

This is a fillies sales race over 6 furlongs. There has only been 7 of these races run at this time of year. As is always the case with these Sales races its easy
to get a shortlist from strong trends but then its down to the elements and luck as to whether you can fluke the winner. The strong trends in this race include Maidens who are 0-94. Horses that either come up from 5f (0-34) or step down from 7f (0-47) havent won either. Horses that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-73) or beaten over 5 lengths last time (0-91) havent win. All 7 winners had ran in Class 4 or better last time and came from a Class 4 or better race last time. Only 4 horses pass all these and they are -

PENNYS GIFT - ROSY MANTLE - GOWER VALENTINE - CRYSTAL MOMENTS

I would have to take out GOWER VALENTINE as he is drawn very low and I think you want a higher draw. Personally I would rather not have a once raced horse like
ROSY MANTLE much as Salamanca did that in 2004. Not for me though especially coming from the all weather and not from a big stable. Therefore its down to 15/8 favourite PENNYS GIFT and 161 CRYSTAL MOMENTS who I suggest each way
at that price not because she has a better chance then PENNYS GIFT but because she is a far more palitable price in a huge field. CRYSTAL MOMENTS each way for me.

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ASCOT 3.55 - PRINCESS ROYAL EBF PRICEWATERHOUSE STAKES (LISTED RACE) (3yo+) 1m4f

5/2 Crystal Capella, 7/2 Ronaldsay, 6/1 Hobby, 10/1 Island Vista, 12/1 Wood Chorus, 14/1 Classic Legend, 16/1 Elmaleeha, Susie May, 20/1 Under The Rainbow, 25/1 Silk
Affair, Silver Mitzva, 33/1 Ragdollianna, 50/1 Amicable Terms, Time Control.

* This is a Listed race over 12 furlongs for all aged Fillies
* Ascot has had 13 renewals of this race
* I would take out maiden winners last time as none won this
* ISLAND VISTA and TIME CONTROL fail that
* No past winner had just 1 race that season
* ISLAND VISTA and CLASSIC LEGEND fail that
* CLASSIC LEGEND also comes from a poor trial race
* No past winner came here winning a conditions race
* SELL OUT Fails that and she also has a penalty
* That would worry me and no past winner has yet done that
* RONALDSAY also has that penalty
* I couldnt have UNDER THE RAINBOW
* Something clearly looks wrong with her at the moment
* 12 of the 13 winners came from at least a Listed class race last time
* SILVER MITZVA doesnt look ready to win yet
* I am left with 4 horses on a shortlist which are
* Crystal Capella - Hobby -Wood Chorus -Elmaleeha

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HAYDOCK 4:55 - GRIFFITHS & ARMOUR HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-95) 1m30y

6/1 Opus Maximus, 8/1 Brasingaman Hifive, Major Magpie, Rainbow Mirage, Silver Rime, 9/1 Goodbye Mr Bond, Kal Barg, 10/1 Kay Gee Be, Rochefort,12/1 Gala Casino Star, Scartozz, 14/1 Mujood, Navajo Joe, 16/1 Suits Me.

* This is a 0-94 Handicap over 8f
* Haydock has had 20 similar renewals of this race
* There's been 237 similar races in September and October Since 1992
* GOODBYE MR BOND is 8 years old and absent 54 days
* In 237 races horses aged 7 or more absent a month or more were 0-78
* He wont be fit enough today
* I feel the same about KAY GEE BE as well
* He has just 4 runs this year and a 48 day break
* Horses like him with 9 + runs scored badly with absences
* Since 1998 with under 5 runs this year and a break they were 1-67
* KAY GEE BE has only had 2 runs since April
* Horses like MUJOOD that come from 6f races are awful
* Horses that stepped up in trip from 6f were 0-84 in the 237 races
* Horses that come from 3yo handicaps have a 1-47 record in this race
* Thats a very poor record so I looked at 237 other races
* Horses with 9 or more runs that came from 3yo handicaps were 7-234
* In September males that tried it were just 1-102
* These horses are probably not well enough handicapped to win against elders
* GALA CASINO STAR fails that
* KAL BAG and SILVER RIME are on the borderline with that sta
* Both come from 3yo handicaps and have 9 runs
* I think you have to give them the benefit of the doubt
* I dont want BRASINGAMAN HIFIVE
* She is the only filly in the race
* I think with bottomweight she may lack the class
* I have found the odd winner like NAVAJO JOE
* Almost all that had similar profiles ran better than he did last time
* He would have made more appeal coming off a much better run
* He is inexperienced - hasnt settled in his races
* No horse with his profile has won this race at Haydock either
* Exposed horses that drop from 10f or more struggle
* None won this race at Haydock
* Only 6 of the 237 other winners did this
* None were 5 year olds like SUITS ME who looks like he wants further
* SCARTOZZ also drops down in trip and looks badly handiapped
* ROCHEFORT is a 3yo beaten 10 + lengths last time
* I looked for 3 year olds beaten that far in 237 races
* When they had 5 or more runs but under 6 that year they were 0-138
* I dont like the look of ROCHEFORT in this race
* KAL BARG fails the same trend
* I gave KAL BARG the benefit of the doubt earlier
* This is another problem I have ran into with him
* I wont shortlist him because of that
* I think if at all possible you want to avoid a low draw
* 8f Haydock Handicap results recently strongly suggest this
* GOODBYE MR BOND - SCARTOZZ - KAY GEE BE have bad draws
* There are only 4 horses I could shortlist
* RAINBOW MIRAGE - MAJOR MAGPIE - OPUS MAXIMUS -SILVER RIME
* SILVER RIME clearly has the ability and seems fancied
* His chance depends on how badly his drawn in stall 4 affects him
* His chance also depends on how ready he is with 1 run since July
* He is rightly shortlisted but I dont select him
* I have 3 other shortlisted all better drawn and possibly fitter
* I thing OPUS MAXIMUS won well last time
* The race he won looks no worse than MAJOR MAGPIE's
* Yet OPUS MAXIMUS is younger - scopier and has less weight
* I would prefer OPUS MAXIMUS and RAINBOW MIRAGE in this
* Win bet on OPUS MAXIMUS and saver on RAINBOW MIRAGE

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WOLVERHAMPTON 6:20


OPEN A HILLS ACCOUNT - 0800 44 40 40 HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-55) 5f216y

5/1 Elusive Dreams, 6/1 Rainbow Bay, 7/1 Billy Red, Jun Fan, 8/1 Welcome Approach, 9/1 Musical Script, 10/1 Tugalu, 11/1 Casela Park, 12/1 Pasta Prayer, Tarkamara, 14/1 Perlachy, 16/1 Hollywood George, Out Of India.

Wolverhampton have had 61 of these handicaps in September
and October and a few of these are more than unproven. None
of the 61 winners had just 3 runs or came from a maiden and
CASELA PARK Fails that. TUGALU also comes from maidens
and also fails that. None of the winners had just one race this season like TARKAMARA and he looks short. The 3 year olds look weak and dont win much and PASTA PRAYER looks too
inexperienced and his cause isnt helped by a jockey that hasnt ridden a winner in public before. This isnt a good track to try and defy a long absence. Horses absent a Month were just 5-162 in the 61 renewals. Exposed horses with 21 or more career starts that ran here and had a months absence had an awful record of just 1 from 82 and WELCOME APPROACH has that problem. So to does JUN FAN who has a poor 1-36 strike rate anyway. OUT OF INDIA only just scrapes through with 19 runs and an absence but she makes no appeal as a Mare that has to come from a 5f race and a Mare thats had just 4 runs in 26 months. I wouldnt want HOLLYWOOD GEORGE absent 7 weeks and with a dissapointing profile. There are several here that come from 5f races but these types can win. If you look at exposed horses that come from 5f they are fine if they have a recent run
but not so good otherwise. Exposed horses that do it without a run in 15 days had a 0-50 record in these 61 races and that puts me off BILLY RED. The already rejected JUN FAN also fails that. I would shortlist the following

ELUSIVE DREAMS - PERLACHY - RAINBOW BAY - MUSICAL SCRIPT

We know that exposed horses that come from 5f without a
run in 15 days are 0-50. MUSICAL SCRIPT does that with
a 15 day absence so he is bang on the money. I have shortlisted him because of that but I prefer not to have a 5f runners and I wouldnt be too happy about him drawn in stall one especially as he can often miss the break.

ELUSIVE DREAMS and PERLACHY were 2nd and 3rd in the
same race here 2 weeks ago over 7 furlongs. They bumped into a very progressive horse and ran well. I would have to prefer ELUSIVE DREAMS of this pair. At the 2 furlong marker last time PERLACHY just took it up when ELUSIVE DREAMS was still in last place. ELUSIVE DREAMS made tremendous late ground up the far rail and finished very well into second that day. On that run he looks a winner waiting to happen especially as that was his first race in 4 months. The added danger with PERLACHY is that he is having his first run for a new stable and thats a worry. There is one possible problem with ELUSIVE DREAM in that he may regress or bounce from that first run in 4 months. I dont think he will but it is in the back of my mind.

RAINBOW BAY is well handicapped. Statistically fine and
whilst I would have prefered him to have run better last time when leading at Hamilton he wont have liked the ground that day and will prefer it today and he has comfortably the most recent run in this field.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 6:50

GET A BONUS AT WILLIAMHILLCASINO.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-75) 1m5f194y

4/1 Bundle Up, 9/2 River Kent, 5/1 Crispian, 6/1 Blue Hills, 7/1 Right Option, 9/1 Cash On, Dandygrey Russett, 16/1 Synonymy, 25/1 Peas ´n Beans, 33/1 Bright Falcon.

There has ony been 9 Wolverhampton races over this trip at
this time of year before. Most interesting trend is that horses with under 5 runs that year didnt win any of the 9 races which is worth bearing in mind. I think I should look at the 149 similar low grade 14f handicaps both on sand and grass.

BLUE HILLS ought to be opposed as a 7 year old absent 147
days. His win here last March takes him to a career high mark on sand as well and I felt he had a weak profile.

CRISPIAN is out with 1 run this year and a 226 day break. In 149 similar races only 5 managed to defy 80 or more days absence and none had 1 run this season. Horses aged 4 that tried it like he does had a 1-82 record and I dont fancy him.

BRIGHT FALCON is definately out up from 8f. I dont want horses from 10f either like PEAS ´N BEANS and with his absence as well he is opposable.

I would try hard not to select BUNDLE UP as a lightly raced filly up in trip. I thought she had a weakish profile and a 52 day absence also hurts her.

I couldnt have DANDYGREY RUSSEY as an exposed filly that hasnt run since July. CASH ON has only had 1 race since November 2007 and could easily lack fitness as a 6 year old. SYNONYMY comes here with 5 heavy defeats in a row and I wouldnt see him as the likely winner.

RIGHT OPTION is an exposed 4 year old. Just 10 of the 149 winners could say the same. He has had less runs this year than any of those 10 winners and absent a month it would make me nervous and I feel that whilst you can give him a reasonable chance there should be better profiles.
I prefer RIVER KENT

RIVER KENT has a strong profile. He has 8 career starts and won a 3yo handicap last time. In 149 races horses that won 3yo handicaps with 7-12 career runs had a very strong 6-13 record a strike rate of 46%. If you narrow that down to the ones that had a recent run and that had 4 or more runs this year as he has it became a 6-11 record and that
included 2 seconds and a third. I think RIVER KENT has by far the best and most progressive profile.

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