Monday March 24th

No Account Bets Today

Bank Holiday Racing. Lost a couple of meetings through the weather and there are just 2 Flat cards. As I said last week I just want to stay with the flat at the moment until a couple more days to get acclimatised. Today will have blown away all the cobwebs and settle me down for the Flat season. In have concentrated on Redcar and Warwick and made some comments in every race. Plenty of previews - shortlists and the odd selection. Its a generic message that will suit those having many small bets in most races using the message as a Guide rather than those of you spending the day out and about wanting one big bet. My
own betting today will be small and spent hand in hand with looking at a Good Pontefract card tomorrow. I like the 2.35 at Redcar and thats the only race I have played in at this stage. Both HUE and ACCORDELLO interested me in the staying handicap as both horses have improved dramatically over hurdles leaving their Flat Handicap marks looking very low and able to be exploited. Not easy to split either. However both are 3/1 and more and
I have backed them both at level stakes. Getting 3/1 about both - and you should do a little better than that - means that I have backed them both at a combined price of EVENS and I would think that would win. If just one of this pair translate their improvement to the Flat they should be good enough to take that race. Wanted to highlight a winner at the top of the message and I think that split staked bet will win money today. Some of the handicaps look
ferocious today and its not a day for large stakes. I am hoping tomorrow will be.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y S R A C I N G

Not a Good Saturday and a loss of £100. Didnt start well with FIGURITA pulling up. She smashed into the first fence and I think you can safely presume that cost her any chance as she was never going a tap after that and was clearly hurting and in the end he had no option but to pull her up. I think there may have been an excuse with that bad start but truth be told I know better than to get
heavily involved in these each way bets and I blame myself for not avoiding the race. TOP SPEC didnt run that well. I think his chance on paper made a lot of sense. I dont blame the fact he was held up at the back as thats what he does. May have been the track - or a race suited to the front runners or he may not have been fit yet or come to himself but he is an old rogue and I knew that and all other risks before the race so I wont grumble about him. Felt he was a price that allowed us to overlook a few of his ideosyncracies but clearly he wasnt and he just didnt seem in the mood. So overall a tough Day 1 of the Flat season. Very Very rare having 2 bets on a day and its odds
against that happening for a long time but just one stake lost and we can move onto today.


REDCAR 2:00 - MARKET CROSS JEWELLERS FILLIES' HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f

5/1 Silly Gilly, 6/1 Dorn Dancer, 7/1 Darcy´s Pride, Morristown Music, 9/1 Feelin Foxy, Miss Daawe, 10/1 Lambency, 12/1 Beechside, Ducal Regancy Red, Gap Princess, Rothesay Dancer, 14/1 Comptonspirit, 25/1 Just Joey.

This is a fillies handicap over 5 furlongs . We are slightly hindered as there are so few of these races run at this time of year. I dont think we are the only ones as the betting suggests that very few people have a confident view about this race. I think I would oppose MORRISTOWN MUSIC and FEELIN FOXY as both come from 3yo handicaps and
have their seasonal debuts against older horses. Between March and May there's been 81 handicaps for fillies over
5f and 6f. If you look at horses that come from 3yo handicaps on their first runs of the year they have a 1-55 record and I think that raises some question marks about both. Consider MORRISTOWN MUSIC for a moment. Her trainer
is John Wainwright. He is just about the worst trainer in the game for runners at this time of year. His Grass runnersin March and April have a 1-235 record which is appaling. In 235 races he has only won a 2yo maiden and that was a 50/1 shock. Wainwright clearly doesnt get his runners fit at this time of year so MORRISTOWN MUSIC should really be ignored from consideration. I wouldnt want DUCAL REGANCY RED despite the fact she has 4 runs this
season as I just feel whatever advantage that gives her is eaten away by her lack of class and I dont feel she will be
good enough. I would be pretty relaxed that SILLY GILLY needs to make abnormal improvement from the run she had
on her debut. I think she will get beaten and I have to take her on. COMPTONSPIRIT doesnt look like a horse that is
going to defy a long absence to me and her trainers record leaves me cold. LAMBENCY looks like a horse that will
need further. She is by Daylami and has won her only raced over longer and this looks like an inadequate test to me
and probably a prep race. I dont really want to select ROTHESAY DANCER as her seasonal debuts in past seasons
suggest she needs the run and her 4 career wins came from breaks of 8 - 1 - 3 - 9 days and I dont feel she is worth
risking on her first run in 142 days.

SHORTLIST - DARCY'S PRIDE - GAP PRINCESS - DORN DANCER - MISS DAAWE

Wouldnt be confident as you can only guess how fit these are. I am a bit worried about DORN DANCER's draw in
stall 1 and the fact she runs at 5f today . She has the best jockey and I wouldnt let the draw in a small field push her off the shortlist but It wont be easy for her at this trip . In fact her draw may not matter at this trip as she will get outpaced and have to be dropped in anyay

**********************************************
**********************************************

WARWICK 2:20 - WARWICK RACECOURSE FOR CONFERENCES HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 5f110y

5/1 Tender Process, 7/1 El Potro, 8/1 Highland Warrior, Lord Of The Reins, Methaaly, Misaro, Spirit Of Coniston, 12/1 Chatshow, 14/1 Dualagi, Namir, 16/1 After The Show, Brut, 20/1 Hart Of Gold, Imperial Echo.

* Pretty difficult 5f handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* Not many negatives or obvious chuck outs
* NAMIR and BRUT have ran once this year down the field
* Horses that had 1 run that season beaten 10 or more lengths were 0-43
* I think both have to show abnormal improvement and are rejected
* Warwick have 16 races at this time of year
* Horses aged 4 that didnt run within 2 weeks had a 0-50 record in 16 races
* DUALAGI and HARTS OF GOLD fail that
* I am against CHATSHOW coming from a claimer
* I am against IMPERIAL ECHO coming from a 7f race
* SPIRIT OF CONNISTON is first time out from Dandy Nicholls and I dont like that
* The stable record in these circumstances is poor
* He had a first time out winner yesterday but they are usually in need of the run
* Happy to oppose HIGHLAND WARRIOR as a seasonal debutant aged 9
* Horses aged 9 that came from 5f races had a 0-66 record
* EL PORTO is from a stable thats never had a seasonal debutant winner before
* AFTER THE SHOW has the worst draw and not sure the track will suit
* Havent been able to rule many out but my shortlist would be these
* Tender Process - Lord Of The Reins - Methaaly - Misaro

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 2:35 - BECOME AN ANNUAL BADGE HOLDER TODAY HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-65) 2m4y

11/4 Accordello, 5/1 Hue, 11/2 Caraman, 6/1 Grizebeck, 9/1 Young Scotton, 12/1 Kyber, 14/1 Haatmey, Hugs Destiny, 16/1 Spellman, 20/1 Sunquest, 25/1 Just Waz, 33/1 Brabazon, Into Action, 40/1 Malguru, 100/1 Kinfayre Boy.

This is a 2 mile handicap. Its hard and thats made no easier by the fact there are 15 runners. Its possible to narrow this field down a little though. Its quite possible that CARAMAN is well treated but I certainly dont want a 10 year old chaser and whilst I cant offer any statistical evidence for that it leaves me cold . I have SPELLMAN as too inexperienced. SUNQUEST is outclassed. The jockey puts me off KINFAYRE BOY. BRABAZON hasnt shown much encouragement at all lately and I can not see a reason to bet him. There is a lot to like about GRIZEBECK but there is a stamina doubt. He has won at just short of 14f but he hasnt tried 2 miles yet and there is no encouragement from his sire stats. His sire has only had one winner beyond 14f. GRIZEBACK may not stay. One horse that will stays is HUGS DESTINY but my problem with him is that he is the only horse that has to step up from 12f in this race. Thats been done many times but its a 4f hike in trip that many fail and its not a positive by any means and I dont feel he is a first time out type. His record suggests not - all 4 wins came with a recent run and his stable are not known for their debutant wins. KYBER may need the run. YOUNG SCOTTON has a chance but the fact that both ACCORDELLO and HUE have improved so much over hurdles this season really makes them look well handicapped as well as fit and I would have to see them as the strongest runners in this race. I want to overlook the fact that ACCORDELLO is the only female in the race. I would be slightly worried that in 33 similar races exposed horses struggled with high weights. Only 3 exposed horses carried more than 9st in these races and none carried the weight that HUE has to carry. Its not a great statistic by any means but it highlights the risk that horses that are exposed may be vulnerable when conceding both weight and progression to lighter raced horses. That said HUE improved his hurdles rating considerably as did ACCORDELLO and they are really Class 2/3 hurdlers whose National Hunt ratings suggest both are thrown in off marks of 61 and 55. I feel that HUE and ACCORDELLO dominate this race because of that. I could only see one winning and I would have to save on the other and I would be quite surprised if neither of them won this race.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WARWICK 2:55 - SPONSOR AT WARWICK RACECOURSE MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) 5f

5/1 Joli Haven, 11/2 Alphabeth, 7/1 Tarawa Atoll, 8/1 Percolator, 9/1 Cecilia´s Lass, She´s A Shaw Thing, 10/1 Dancing Wave, 12/1 Shes Billie, Transcentral, 14/1 Lois Darlin, 16/1 Neo´s Mate, 25/1 Dispol Toba, 33/1 Meg Jicaro, 40/1 Miss Belle Eve, 50/1 Percys Corismatic.

* This is a 2yo maiden for fillies over 5f
* None of these have run before so we are in the dark
* I think I would take out the High drawn horses
* This race has always gone to lower drawn horses
* Since 2006 Warwick has had 20 races at this trip
* Horses drawn 8 or more had a 1-54 record in the last 20 races here
* I think I would rule out those drawn 11 or more
* Percolator - Miss Belle Eve - Neo's Mate - She's A Shaw Thing - Shes Billie fail that
* JOLI HAVEN and DANCING WAVE are Bill Turner runners
* The stable won the Brocklesby with a filly last Saturday
* They have never had an unraced filly win a fillies maiden though any time of year (0-31)
* Wouldnt make them a negative solely on that weak trend but its a concern
* I thought the stable of LOIS DARLIN had the worst first time out record and wouldnt bet her
* If I had to nominate 3 they would be Alphabeth - Tarawa Atoll - Cecilia's Lass

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 3:10 - RACING UK CHANNEL 432 SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 1m2f

9/4 Sawwaah, 7/2 Tizzy May, 4/1 Bedouin Blue, 12/1 Coronado´s Gold, Skye But N Ben, 14/1 Ming Vase, Riverhill, 16/1 Basinet, Lago D´Orta, Rotuma, 33/1 Blue Opal, Donna´s Double, 50/1 Besi, 66/1 Royal Lustre, 100/1 Brutus Maximus.

This is a 10f selling race. What you have here is a Benchmark in SAWWAAH and everything should be judged through him and on the likelyhood of beating him. Whilst he is an 11 year old and has been winning on the sand he does set the benchmark and is the highest rated horse in the race. SAWWAAH is a little weak in the betting probably because of the ground being on the soft side which is another little problem he faces. The issue for me is whilst SAWWAAH may like it a bit faster are any of his rivals fit enough to take advantage of this and I am not sure they are. We can interpret the chances of many of his rivals through similar races run at this time of year. There has only been 10 selling races at this trip before May and thats a small sample size. BEDOUIN BLUE is not particularly experienced. I would just give him the benefit of the doubt on that score but his 100 day absence is a problem for me. If you look at the 10 selling races at this time of year 9 of the 10 winners ran within a Month. Those that did not had a weak 1-78 record. I dont want to bet a horse I do not know is fit when he has been absent for a long time. That may be the single most important issue in this race. Who is going to be fit enough to be able to run their best and try and beat SAWWAAH . The 8 year old TIZZY MAY has a long absence and he needed his seasonal debut last year. CORONADO'S QUEST has been off the track 3 months. So to have BESI - BRUTUS MAXIMUS - DONNA'S DOUBLE - LAGO D'ORTA - RIVERHILL - ROTUMA and BLUE OPAL whose the only filly in the race. BASINET has ran just once in the last 2 seasons and I would raise a serious question mark against his fitness. In these races you want to oppose Maidens (1-75 record) like RIVERHILL - BRUTUS MAXIMUS (whose too inexperienced) and ROYAL LUSTRE. Another interesting angle is that horses beaten 10 lengths or more on their last start had a poor 1-103 record. Gimmicky as that sounds it raises the need for a good last run and several here like Besi - Blue Opal - Rotuma - Royal Lustre have that against them. If you see SKYE BUT N BEN as the horse that can beat the favourite then consider the fact there is a stamina doubt and that in the only similar 10 races run at this time of year Horses aged 4 like him had a 0-66 record. The only horses that come out as statisticallly perfect albeit from not many similar races are SAWWAAH and MING VASE. The argument against MING VASE is simple. He has to race off level weights with the favourite yet MING VASE is rated 49 and SAWWAAH is rated 74 and has proven that on more than one occasion recently. I can not see a horse I would trust to beat SAWWAAH in this race. That fitness edge may be important and why I would overlook his weakness in the market and the ground. I didnt think he had a danger that doesnt have at least one serious question mark to answer.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WARWICK 3:30 - WARWICKRACECOURSE.CO.UK HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m22y

11/4 Rebellious Spirit, 4/1 Sedgwick, 5/1 Music Note, 8/1 Superior Star, Under Fire, Waterline Twenty, 12/1 The Grey One, Tina´s Ridge, 25/1 Latif.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-70
* Only 2 renewals but interesting both ran within 2 weeks and came from the sand
* Poor stable records put me off THE GREY ONE first time out
* At this time of year I am very interested in horses beaten 10 or more lengths last time
* Fitness is vitally important and with seasonal debutants you have to be sure your fit
* Since 1995 there has been 68 of these handicaps
* Horses that had 1-2-3 runs that season that were beaten 10 or more lengths last time were 2-213
* They clearly suggests they either lack fitness or have yet to run into peak form
* Wouldnt swear on that statistic as being outstanding but 2-213 is a very poor record
* MUSIC NOTE and SUPERIOR STAR both fail that
* Both these horses come from Southwell and horses that do that had a poor 2-94 record anyway
* TINA'S RIDGE also comes from Southwell and I dont like the fact He comes from a claimer
* The 68 similar races show horses coming from claimers 0-37
* WATERLINE TWENTY comes from a 10f race and that bothers me
* In 68 races horses that came from 10f races when running within 7 weeks were 1-91
* I am opposing her because of this and because she is the only filly and they underperform
* LATIF doesnt look likely to win this
* I feel the 3 horses left have the strongest profiles and they are ;
* REBELLIOUS SPIRIT - SEDGWICK - UNDER FIRE
* REBELLIOUS SPIRIT looks the best option to me

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 3:45 - BECK'S VIER HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 7f

5/1 Aussie Blue, 6/1 Maia, 8/1 Cheery Cat, Kirkby´s Treasure, 12/1 A Big Sky Brewing, Grand Opera, Sands Of Barra, Stoic Leader, 16/1 Avontuur, Boy Dancer, Chin Wag, Dressed To Dance, Tyrannosaurus Rex, 25/1 Messiah Garvey, Violent Velocity, 33/1 Double Carpet, Ghafeer, 50/1 Nok Twice, 66/1 Valdan, Woodsley House.

This 7f handicap looks repulsive and there may well be a draw bias with a massive field. I have looked at all similar races at this time of year in a vain attempt to narrow it down. What I dont want is a horse thats had 7 or more runs if he or she comes from a 3yo handicap. The few winners that came via 3yo handicaps were very lightly raced. Those that had 7 or more runs doing this racked up a 0-65 record and thats worth considering. Thats why I oppose these types such as AUSSIE BLUE - GHAFEER - CHIN WAG and A BIG SKY BREWING. The last named horse has been absent 236 days and I would want to oppose horses that had not run in 7 months as they score very poorly. WOODSLEY HOUSE fails That. Horses that have gone over 10 races without having yet won a race before score badly and AUSSIE BLUE and GHAFEER fail that. KIRKBYS TREASURE is not for me coming down 3 furlongs in distance and you find both exposed and older horses score badly when asking to drop in trip in these races. VIOLENT VELOCITY is in the same boat. Horses up in trip can have problems. I dont want AVOUNTUUR or DOUBLE CARPET as they are lightweights doing it and these dont win very often and neither do females trying it so DRESSED TO DANCE is also passed over. I dont like the profile of MAIA. She is a filly. She has been absent 257 days. She comes from a 3yo handicap. She has had only 5 starts. She comes from a 6f race as well. Any combination of all these factors show enormous problems. In fact you wont find a horse thats won anywhere overcoming all these factors. Look at it this way. In March and April on Grass there has been over 2000 handicaps run at any trip and in any class. Thats over 2000 races. Fillies abent 7 months or more coming from 3yo handicaps like MAIA does have a 0-137 record. Dont forget thats at every trip and in any class at this time of year and doesnt even take into account the fact she is lightly raced and has to step up in trip. I could dedicate the whole message to angles she fails but I wont. In fact she fails so many angles I am beginning to think she has to win as you find sometimes that the further you go towards being statistically awful the stronger you become statistically interesting. Almost the same as saying the further "left "
you go the more "right" you become. Lot of truth in that but I want to be clear. MAIA has a god forsaken profile and I hate her chance and have no doubt I cant select her. These were the Horses I had to oppose in what was and still is a desperately hard race. SANDS OF BARRA doesnt appeal to me as a horse likely to win after an absence. MESSIAH GARVEY doesnt come from a yard that does well with similar types and he looks his stables second string. After taking out the no hopers I have 5 horses left that I hope will provide the winner. These are :

* CHEERY CAT - GRAND OPERA - STOIC LEADER - BOY DANCER - TYRANNOSAURAS REX

**********************************************
**********************************************

WARWICK 4:05 - EASTER FAMILY FUN DAY MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 7f26y

11/4 Tawzeea, 7/2 Magnitude, 5/1 Candida´s Beau, 8/1 Glitz, Never Catcher, 10/1 Koraleva Tectona, 12/1 Chief Eric, Spotty Muldoon, 16/1 Jal Music, 20/1 Ramprakash, 50/1 Profumo Affair, 66/1 Little Rococoa, Marysedge.

* This is a 3yo maiden over 7f
* Warwick have had 11 renewals of this race
* Unraced horses have a 0-17 record
* Happy to oppose the unraced horses Spotty Muldoon - Little Rococoa
* GLITZ is an unraced Michael Bell horse and I dont want her
* Bell has a weak 1-85 record in 3yo maidens all year round with unraced horses
* I dont think M Bell is a good stable to bet unraced 3 year olds
* MAGNITUDE is unraced but his stable do have unraced winners in these races
* MAGNITUDE couldnt be a negative because of this despite none winning at Warwick
* Whats possibly interesting is the record in these races since 2000
* Since 2000 there has been 35 maidens (7f) for 3 year olds on grass in March and April
* Unraced horses had a 1-90 record in these 35 races and thats a bit worrying
* I dont want a horse thats ran this season
* If they have ran they can not have won and may be vulnerable
* Horses that had ran this year had a 0-29 record in Warwicks 11 renewals
* JAL MUSIC - PROFUMO AFFAIR - RAMPRAKASH - MARYSEDGE fail that
* RAMPRAKASH also comes from 10f and I dont like that
* CHIEF ERIC doesnt appeal on breeding or stable record
* I didnt like NEVER CATCHER as a filly with 1 run up in trip
* CHIEF ERIC - NEVER CATCHER have both ran once
* 10 of the 11 winners of this race had at least 2 starts before
* KORALEVA TECTONA has a chance but she isnt for me as a filly from an 8f race
* No statistical reason why CANDIDA´S BEAU cant win
* TAWZEEA is the one to beat though and has no statistical flaws
* Mark Johnstons maidens can be a bit hit and miss but he doesnt have much to beat
* I feel TAWZEEA is best placed in an e/w double with Platoche (4.20)

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 4:20 - STELLA ARTOIS MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m1f

6/4 Platoche, 11/4 Tajweed, 7/1 Albaqaa, Baaher, 12/1 Rivington Pike, 16/1 Ros Cuire, Zabougg, 20/1 Key Decision, 25/1 Miss Understanding, 33/1 Caffari, Monte Pattino, 50/1 Red Fama, 100/1 My Mate Mal.

This is a maiden race over 9f for All Aged horses. Not easy these maidens. There has been 44 similar races run at
this time of year. I am happy to rule out Older horses that are unraced like KEY DECISION - MONTE PATTINO
and MY MATE MAL. There are no older horses in this race I can see troubling the 3 year olds. More than happy
to oppose the fillies CAFFARI and MISS UNDERSTANDING as fillies are easily outscored in these races. I cant
find a winner of a similar race that came from 6f so I dont want ZABOUGG. You should concentrate on the horses
at the head of the maket in these races. I have no problems with RIVINGTON PIKE statistically but he is not easy to select and has been weak in the market. Which ever way you look at it PLATOCHE cant be accuately assesed
as he is unraced. His trainer (Chapple-Hyam) has a 1-4 record with unraced maidens at this time of year and had a
winner yesterday with his first runner of the season. PLATOCHE is 6/4 favourite and as he is unraced he forces
you to take risks regardless of who you bet. His market rival TAJWEED sets the standard but it is not a very high
standard and he doesnt stand out on his breeding or on his trainers record with all aged maidens this year as a
mixed record shows. ALBAQUU is the highest rated horse officially but steps up from a 7f race and all 21 horses
that did that when having 3 or more previous races lost in races such as these. Overall a mixed bag. I would have
to go with PLATOCHE and TAJWEEED as most likely to win. I think in races such as these when you clearly dont
know how good either are then the each way double comes into play. Thats the way I would go. Despite lacking
a run PLATOCHE looks the most likely winner and I think the sensible option is putting him in an e/w double and
I earlier nominated Tawzeea (4.05 Warwick) as the likely candidate.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WARWICK 4:40 - TURFTV HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-60) 7f26y

9/2 Magical Song, 5/1 Grand Value, 11/2 New Minerton, One Called Alice, 7/1 Just Jimmy, 8/1 Mad Man Will, 10/1 Lowry´s Art, 12/1 Zaplamation, 20/1 Tenth Night, Yakama, 25/1 Amber Ridge, Tilly Ann.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs
* There has been just 6 renewals of this race
* MAGICAL SONG the favourite has had 10 runs and won twice
* In 6 renewals horses with 9 or more runs had a 0-29 record in this race
* All 6 winners were also maidens
* Taking the 6 Warwick renewals MAGICAL SONG isnt the same type as past winenrs
* There have been similar winners at other tracks that had his profile
* Since 1991 there has been 34 of these 3yo handicaps over 7f
* Looking at the record of fillies in these races certain types struggle
* Fillies that had under 6 runs had a pretty poor 1-56 record
* LOWRYS ART - GRAND VALUE - NEW MINERTON - TILLY ANN fail that
* LOWRYS ART - AMBERS RIDGE - ZAPLAMATION have problematic draws
* Cant find a filly winning when coming from a 2yo maiden over 6 furlongs
* AMBERS RIDGE - GRAND VALUE - NEW MINERTON Have that against them
* This has been a race to strongly concentrate on the high weights
* I wouldnt want to bet the following lightweights who all fail other trends
* New Minerton - Tenth Night - Zaplamation - Tilly Ann - Yakama
* I think the following horses came out best
* JUST JIMMY - MAD MAN WILL - ONE CALLED ALICE - MAGICAL SONG

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 4:55 - BODDINGTONS REDCAR STRAIGHT-MILE CHAMPIONSHIP (HANDICAP) (QUALIFIER) (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m

6/1 Spinning, 13/2 Chicken George, 7/1 Osteopathic Remedy, The Osteopath, 10/1 Westport, 12/1 Boundless Prospect, Moheebb, 14/1 Inside Story, 16/1 Nuit Sombre, Shot To Fame, Thunderousapplause, Wovoka, 20/1 Daaweitza, King Of The Moors, Kingsholm, Middlemarch, Tencendur, Tsaroxy, 33/1 Bid For Gold.

This mile handicap is another lethal looking handicap with too many runners. Far too hard for any serious consideration. I would offer just luke warm suggestions. I would be against the 3yo handicappers TENCENDUR and CHICKEN GEORGE and against the 6f horses WESTPORT and THUNDEROUSAPPLAUSE. I would also scrub off the list any horses 33/1 and over.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WARWICK 5:15 - RACING UK HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 1m2f188y

5/1 Ryan´s Future, 6/1 Noah Jameel, 8/1 Trysting Grove, 10/1 General Flumpa, Snake Skin, Zain, 12/1 Ben Bacchus, Desert Hawk, 14/1 Brastar Jelois, David´s Cavalier, Icannshift, Sir Rique, Top Seed, 20/1 Orphina, 25/1 Personify, 33/1 April The Second, King Of Connacht.

* This is a very tough 0-60 handicap over an extended 10f
* Warwick has had 8 renewals of this race
* I am only able to quickly run through the horses I dont like
* I am against seasonal debutant fillies who won none
* BRASTAR JELOIS - ORPHINA fail that
* Seasonal debutants with 13 or more runs had a 0-31 record
* BRASTAR JELOIS - GENERAL FLUMPA - DESERT HAWK fail that
* ORPHINA - ICANNSHIFT - ZAIN fail that
* I dont fancy KING OF CONNACHT with just 4 runs
* APRIL THE SECOND is too inexperienced
* SNAKE SKIN isnt for me as a female coming from hurdles
* I dont want BEN BACCHUS as his last race wasnt good enough

**********************************************
**********************************************

REDCAR 5:30 - THE COMMITMENTS ARE HERE IN AUGUST HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-60) 5f

7/2 Golden Dane, Rich James, 4/1 Mujinda, 8/1 Curio, Mchepple, 12/1 Killer Class, 16/1 Madame Rio, Next Best, Straight, 20/1 Bellas Chicas, 33/1 Captain Turbot.

The last race on the card at Redcar is a 5f handicap for 3 year olds and there has been 36 similar races run at this time of year. The weights are tight with just 14lbs between top and bottom. Horses like BELLAS CHICAS who have had a run this season really need to have done better than she has. If you look at 36 similar races horses with 1 run this season had a 1-73 record when failing to finish in the first 5 places on that run. They had a 0-39 record when beaten by 10 lengths or more so I would strongly assume that BELLAS CHICAS hasnt done enough to win this and would need to make abnormal improvement to win this. I dont like fillies who come from the Nursery system. All 25 of these lost and KILLER CLASS and MADAME RIO have this to overcome and if you look at all of these races at any time of year all 44 fillies that did this lost. I would be against STRAIGHT as a 7f trip dropper. No horse overcame that at this time of year and none did it at any time of year when having a long absence. I see a bit of weakness in NEXT BEST and MCHEPPLE as fillies without a run in a long time and claimer ridden. CURIO is another filly having an absence and I didnt think his trainers record with seasonal debutants at this time of year was much good and certainly not enough to overlook her problems. CAPTAIN TALBOT doesnt come out well as bottomweight and looks up against it and is another from a stable with an uninspiring record. I thought the strongest runners statistically were RICH JAMES - MUJINDA - GOLDEN DANE . They have all had at least 3 runs this season and all placed last time out. Thats a sound profile and I feel one has to win as they have such a strong fitness advantage. Robert Winston may or may not have chosed Rich James over GOLDEN DANE but I think if he has he may have done the wrong thing and GOLDEN DANE each way at 5/1 looks the best option to me.

**********************************************
**********************************************