Thursday 14th August

No Account Bet



Todays Selection

Stratford 8.10

SISTER AGNES

Each Way bet at generally available 4/1


Interested in 2 Stratford races tonight. I think one of these races should provide the days selections. With Chepstow abandoned the cards at Beverley and Salisbury are tight. There are a few that I could have selected there but they are no better prices than the one I like at Stratford in the last race and she has far less to beat.
SISTER AGNES looks a horse I should be highlighting today. I dont know enough about her to understand how reliable she is or how reliable she will be on the ground despite several good runs when the ground is soft so I Dont want an account bet on her but I have factored any risks she brings into the price and I dont see many in this race that offer as strong a profile as she does. With some bad looking profiles against her I feel at 4/1 each way
she is worth a bet

Todays Selection

Stratford 8.10

SISTER AGNES

Each Way bet at generally available 4/1

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


S T R A T F O R D


STRATFORD 5.40

13/8 Think Lucky, 4/1 Answer Me, Corum, 5/1 Prince Vector, 11/2 Duggan´s Forge, 20/1 Supreme Team
66/1 King Rocky, Newnham Flyer, Valentine Moon.

SELECTION - CORUM 6/1 with a saver on DUGGANS FORGE 9/2

I think this Maiden hurdle has some potential in it for 2 reasons. The favourite THINK LUCKY is surely going to find it a real stamina test and there must be a very strong chance that as he is by Zafonic he wont stay this far. There are limitations to how far horses sired by Zafonic stay both on the flat and jumps and on ground this bad and over this far its some way out of his comfort range. That said THINK LUCKY has appeared to stay when running over a furlong shorter but that was on fast ground. I think this horse is worth opposing over distance and ground If there is a strong alternative. The second reason I liked the race is that I want to oppose ANSWER ME coming from a Bumper with just 2 starts. I have looked at all maiden hurdles at this time of year and horses like ANSWER ME do not win very often and I would have to oppose him. I
would also consider opposing PRINCE VECTOR as well. He comes from a selling hurdle and I cant find a
single winner of a maiden hurdle around this distance that managed to step up in trip from selling class and you also have the fact PRINCE VECTOR was claimed for just 5k last time and is having his first run for a new stable today. I havent a big problem with DUGGAN'S FORCE but dont really want a lightly raced 8 year old. Surely the better option may be CORUM whose just run well in a handicap hurdle as a win bet and Duggans Force as a saver.

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STRATFORD 8.10

13/8 Any Reason, 7/2 Edgefour, 11/2 Sister Agnes, 13/2 Daramoon, 12/1 Looktheotherway, Vicky Bee, 20/1 Blazing Run, Cresswell Ruby, 25/1 Overdante, Will She Spin, 50/1 Cushty, 66/1 Clare Park.

* This is a Mares Novice Hurdle over 19f
* There has only been 4 similar races at this trip in August
* I have looked at 25 Mares races between 17f and 21f
* I think I would have to oppose ANY REASON
* He is a 9 year old thats had just 2 races under rules
* I think thats a big problem and not just in Mares races
* I looked at all novice hurdles between April and September under 3 miles
* That was for All sexes and there were 2827 of these races
* In 2827 races over 6 months from 2 miles to 3 miles some good stats emerged
* Horses aged 9 that had under 3 career starts had a 2-322 record
* Horses aged 9 that had under 2 runs like ANY REASON were 0-210
* ANY REASON fails that and was only bought for 6000 Guineas
* I think he is a favourite to oppose
* I dont want EDGEFOUR myself
* There has been 25 Mares races between 17f and 21f in August
* Horses that came from 2 mile races had a 3-62 record in 25 races
* When having under 5 runs that became a 0-45 record
* EDGEFOUR has to come from 2 miles with just 3 career starts
* LOOKTHEOTHERWAY has to do just that with 1 start
* I would have to oppose her as well
* DARAMOON wouldnt be my first choice for an alternative
* She only cost 500 Guineas and hasnt shown much yet
* You can give her a chance on her last run but its behind some of these
* VICKY BEE has a small chance but has run just once in a long time
* She hasnt shown she is ready to show her best yet
* I have to go with SISTER AGNES here
* She has been running in Handicap Hurdles
* I like horses that have been doing this
* Although there has only been 4 identical races at 19f in August
* 3 of the 4 winners came from Handicap Hurdles as she does
* In 25 races between 17f and 21f horses with her profile scored very well
* With between 5 and 12 runs - coming from 19f-21f handicap hurdles -
* Horses like her had a 4-8 record and Alll 8 runners were placed
* SISTER AGNES looks a strong each way bet in this race

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B E V E R L E Y

Thought the opening race a selling handicap over 12f was a mess. There has been about 50 of these low grade handicaps. None came from 8f so MOWAHK STAR is out. None
also defied 7 weeks or more absence in the 50 races so both GEORGE HENSON and ELLIES FAITH are out. PARCHMENT has a long absence and I want want him as horses absent a month or more are just 3-159. QAASI is out absent 44 days and having to come down from 2 miles which no horse has done. AMJAD makes no appeal. In 50 races I couldnt find a filly as inexperienced as MISS CRUISECONTROL. I wouldnt
want any of the above horses. Then you have the fact no horse as old as COURT OF APPEAL has won and none as old as BRIGHT SUN going up in trip. BLACK FALCON comes via sellers and no past winner did that. FLOODLIGHT FANTASY has been over hurdles and predicting what he does back on the flat isnt really possible and as a filly up in trip SHENANDOAH GIRL also has plenty to overcome. Felt it was a Mess.


BEVERLEY 3.15

7/2 William Blake, 4/1 Kingsdale Orion, 6/1 Ella Woodcock, 7/1 Motafarred, Tufton, 8/1 Vicious Warrior, 14/1 Kings Quay.

The interesting thing about this 0-89 rated handicap is how the very high weights have struggled to defy weight over the years. The race has a long history and horses that carried 9st 7lbs or more had a pretty poor 1-37 record. I think its asking a lot of MAGIC ECHO to defy 10st weight and cope with a 49 day absence something that has again proved hard to beat. KINGSDALE ORION
also fails the weight statistic and I would oppose him as well with a months absence and a 7lbs claimer on board. KINGS QUAY hasnt run since April so he doesnt interest me as he also has a pretty high weight. I think you want a lightweight. 14 of the last 15 winners came from the bottom
5 horses in the weights.

I think ELLA WOODCOCK's chance comes from how soft the ground is as she will want it fast if possible and she wont get that. She would be fine on Good to Soft but Soft ground would be a real problem for her. TUFTON must have a good chance as he comes here in good form. He is up in class and hard to read as he clearly has had problems and has wasted a lot of his career badly handicapped. Whether He can win a 0-89 is hard to tell. This is a big jump in class but he is a fit lightweight and in form and although no clear soft ground form he is not one to underestimate. We have had a couple of 9 year olds win so considering the light weights record VISCIOUS WARRIOR surely has to be considered off a feather weight as he's going down the handicap and has dropped 11lbs in his 6 races this year. You can be sure he hasnt been fit as a 9 year old so far this year and his last run at Ripon suggests to me he has to be taken very seriously in this race. WILLIAM BLAKE has some tasty form much as others come here as stronger statistically. I think WILLIAM BLAKE is more a
saver bet than a selection in this race. Another fit in form lightweight is MOTAFARED and he looks just the right type thats been winning this race. If I had to nominate 3 horses that interested me most it would be VISCIOUS WARRIOR - WILLIAM BLAKE and MOTAFARED. I thought about the
9/1 about VISCIOUS WARRIOR but dont feel he has been places as well as he could have been. He is rated 75 and I would bet him hard off 75 in a 0-75 when he would be conceeding weight to inferior rivals. I would rather do that than bet him getting weight from superior ones. Thats when I suspect VISCIOUS WARRIOR will win his next race when he faces horses rated under 75. So in terms of a
selection in this race I am not sure. I would at least bet WILLIAM BLAKE as a saver bet so if he wins you can not lose. In terms of the main selection I will still go with VISCIOUS WARRIOR.



BEVERLEY 3.50

7/2 Fastnet Storm, 4/1 Digger Derek, 9/2 Hold The Bucks, 6/1 Rose Of Coma, 8/1 Going Time 10/1 Musical Maze, 12/1 Extremely So, 16/1 Pilot Light, 20/1 Astroleo, Woteva, 25/1 Dispol Diva,33/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey.

Hated the race. I found despite a long history this Nursery was incredibly complicated and threw several strange trends at you that are Not replicated in similar races elsewhere. In the recent past horses have won this coming from maidens. The last 5 renewals that had a horse
that came from a maiden in it went to that type of horse. The favourite FASTNET STORM comes from a handicap but I liked his chance despite that and he is the beneficiary of two strange trends in the race that knock out several. In this race horses that came from 7f races with under 9st weight were 0-76 and they were just 1-75 when having 4 or more runs. In the end I decided that I couldnt have a bet. You have no horses that have run within the last two
weeks so fitness isnt clear. I did like the class drop that FASTNET STORM has much as he doesnt come from a maiden as all recent winners have done. I am bailing out in ignorance but would argue that a "strict" interpretation of what has been winning this race in the past and although based on some "Perverse" looking trends the 3 that stood out as coming out the best
were GOING TIME - EXTREMELY SO - FASTNET STORM.


BEVERLEY 4.25

3/1 Pretty Bonnie, 9/2 Choisette, 5/1 Lujiana, 11/2 City For Conquest, 8/1 By The Edge, 9/1 Out Of India, 12/1 Charlotte Grey, 14/1 Miss Taboo 50/1 Groundhog Day,

This is a 5f handicap for Fillies. In August we have seen just 31 of these races. Its interesting that all 31 winners had a recent race and ran within a month so I would ignore CHOISETTE as although she ran 25 days ago I think its asking a lot for a 3 year old to carry Topweight. If you look at 3 year olds in these 31 races if they had not run within the previous 2 weeks they
had a 1-51 record and thats not good. Groundhog Day is too inexperienced. I am in no hurry to bet MISS TABOO or BY THE EDGE as they come here via heavy defeats and horses that ran in these races after running badly last time were poor. I am quite neutral statistically about PRETTY BONNIE - LUJIANA and OUT OF INDIA. Havent enough to throw at them to make them negatives. Equally there is nothing particularly endeering about their profiles that appeal. I feel the best runners here are both CITY FOR CONQUEST and CHARLOTTE GREY. My selection has to be CITY FOR CONQUEST .


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S A L I S B U R Y

I AM THE BEST is a warm favourte in the first race. Sets me a poser. You have to decide whether you want to be with him or not. Normally in these races I am against the high
weighted juveniles. Horses with his weight are 1-30 in 100 similar races but he comes from a Group race and thats a different matter. There are not enough similar horses that have tried to win these races to get any kind of insight about whether failed Group runners can give weight to unproven juveniles that may be progressing more. I havent the angles to be able to assess I AM THE BEST properly. He looks a banker but I certainly wouldnt use that adjective. I would be a bit nervous about him to be honest but I dont see one I would rather bet and I think he has done enough to be the selection. I see him as the most likely
winner but not a good price.


SALISBURY 2.30

7/2 Athania, 4/1 Blazing Buck, 7/1 Devil To Pay, Eightdaysaweek, Hypnotic Gaze, 8/1 Lethal Glaze,
Peter Grimes, 12/1 Tricky Trev, 14/1 Googoobarabajagal, 50/1 Autumn Morning, Coral Point,
Julie Mill, 100/1 Jasper Cliff.

The 2.30 is Division 2 of the same race. Its a maiden Auction race. Statistically I could not bet DEVIL TO PLAY with 9st 2lbs and unraced. There has been 100 of these races and horses with his weight won only 1 of them. In these 100 races horses that were beaten by
over 10 lengths last time struggled. When they are Male they are awful . If you look at the record of Male horses (in 100 races) that were beaten 10 or more lengths in these races last time out they had a weak 3-203 record and when they had ran just 1 previous race that
became a 1-105 record. Thats why I would oppose BLAZING BUCK - PETER GRIMES and TRICKY TREV. Its Far easier for fillies to overcome heavy defeats as they also get
the sex allowance which helps a lot and is worth several lengths. In contrast a filly that was beaten over 10 lengths last time like EIGHTDAYSAWEEK fares a lot better and horses with an identical profile to her had a 3-54 record which is acceptable and better than the males.
ATHANIA is a filly with 1 previous run. In the 17 Salisbury renewals of this race all 21 fillies that had 1 run lost but they won several at other tracks. I cant find a horse that had LETHAL GLAZE's profile. I think In summary I would have to oppose several here like
Devil To Play - Blazing Buck - Peter Grimes - Tricky Trev as well as al the rank outsiders.This leaves 4 horses that I think will provide the winner. I would categorise them all as having "Reasonable" profiles but not exactly exciting ones. These 4 shortlisted horses are Athania - Eightdaysaweek - Hypnotic Gaze -Googoobarabajagal.


SALISBURY 3.40

6/4 Miss Rochester, 9/2 Hepburn Bell, 6/1 Sea Chorus, 8/1 Moon Sister, 10/1 Shimoni 16/1 Star Of Gibraltar, 25/1 Muffett´s Dream.

The Fillies Handicap is complicated. Its easy to see MISS ROCHESTER as progressive with 4 runs and winning by 4 lengths last time. She is a Michael Stoute horse so I wont be falling into the trap of underestimating her but she is inexperienced. There has been 28 of these races
in August. Only 1 of the 18 winners had under 5 runs (1-37 record) and that sole winner won a 11f maiden and not a 10f handicap as MISS ROCHESTER has to do. If I am treating her profile fairly I have to say she is vulnerable. I couldnt bet SHIMONI against her with just 1 run since Febuary and carrying a big weight as No horse has carried more than 9st 9lbs in this race before (0-17) and its not easy to defy weight as a filly. MOON SISTER is also weak as
she comes from a Maiden. That said I do feel I can beat this favourite. I think SEA CHORUS and HEPBURN BELL have pretty Similar profiles. I wouldnt be at all confident that I could split those two at all but both have strong profiles and make me think that there is strength
against the favourite and I am inclined to oppose MISS ROCHESTER in this race and bet something against her. I have no strong opinion what with now we are down to 7 runners.


SALISBURY 4.15

5/2 Third Set, 5/1 Laa Rayb, Redolent, 6/1 Ordnance Row, 7/1 Redford, Wise Dennis, 14/1 Caldra, 66/1 Mount Pleasure

This is a Group 3 race over a Mile for Male horses. Its a tough one to sort. Godolphin run THIRD SET who is unproven on the ground and not bred for soft ground. Thats got to be
his big problem. He is not the only one with problems. LAA RAYB and REDFORD come via handicaps and all 19 horses that did that in this race lost. Not easy to bridge the gap
between Handicaps and Group class and you would prefer to have seen a past winner come via handicaps. That said last years second came from handicaps and that would be a dangerous trend to follow blindly. Of this pair you would have to prefer REDFORD as he has winning form on soft ground. I think you can argue that several are over exposed like WISE DENNIS and ORDNANCE ROW but I wouldnt stand firmly against ORDNANCE ROW as he was
second in this race last year and handles soft. Mount Pleasure is exposed. I find it hard to bet
CALDRA with a long absence as her trainer says she is a "nightmare to get fit". That said she was beaten only 3 lengths in this race last year when a seasonal debutant so I wouldnt rule her out either. The strongest runner statistically is REDOLENT

SALISBURY 4.50

5/2 Night Rocket, 4/1 Miss Poppy, 8/1 River Bounty, 10/1 Namu, 12/1 Dualagi 14/1 Diminuto, Meridian Line, 16/1 Alto Singer, Bountiful Bay, 25/1 Eastern Pride.

This is a fillies handicap over 6f. August has seen 41 of these races before. Other than the absences that Bountiful Bay and Eastern Pride have that makes them unnatractive bets there are no great angles in this race. MERIDIAN LINE makes no appeal coming from a claimer. The issue is whether you want to oppose horses that come from 5f races. Horses that do that with under 13 career starts have a 0-22 record and NIGHT ROCKET fails that. Exposed horses that try it also struggle (1-37) and DIMINUTO fails that and as
DUALGI almost fails that she would be another to question. I dont think there are any sensible angles that can increase the number of negatives in this race. No problems strike me as relevant with any other runners. All I would do here is try and get the favourite NIGHT ROCKET and the other 5f runners beaten.

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