Tuesday May 20th

No Afternoon Account Bet

Have not had a chance to properly do Leicester tonight yet but there may be an oppurtunity. I am not in a position yet to say whether there will be a second E Mail tonight or whether I will post only on the message board but either way I should have something to say at Leicester tonight. That has to be later on.

Feel like I need to keep off the account at the moment as I am just not focusing as well as I can and feel 5 minutes behind the game rather than 5 minutes ahead of it at the moment. It will change any day and I will snap out of it quickly but I have just not been at my peak in the last couple of days. A good winner will go a long way to repairing that small problem today and I think NIGHT GROOVE at 13/2 is a decent each way bet at Towcester tonight in the Novice Selling Hurdle.There are so many decent races at the weekend and later in the week and I wantto be right for those. Therefore I am making NIGHT GROOVE my best option in this E Mail at the Moment but I am hoping to improve on that in a race tonight.

Tomorrow's E Mail will be a "one-off" and will only consist of the Main opening paragraph and any bets. I wont be doing the main write ups or previews that you
normally see in the bottom half of the message as I have an appointment thats going to get in the way. I will have done the work- just not be able to type it all up. My Guess is that will be a big advantage and will increase chances of a bet.

Todays Selection

Towcester 6.40

NIGHT GROOVE Each Way 13/2

* Further information at Leicester will be sent either by Mail or Posted on the Board

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Probably went for the wrong one of two options with UNLIMITED. He came 4th and would perhaps have been better as an each way bet with 16 runners as I hinted at yesterday. The horse ran well and held every chance but there were a couple of better ones at the weights. It wont be a long message today. I have not been able to produce the detail I wanted. Going to start off


TOWCESTER 6:40 - WAYSIDE GROUP NOVICES' SELLING HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m

4/1 Watch Out, 9/2 Cordage, 5/1 Flying Grey, 8/1 Bethanys Boy, Tiffin Deano, 12/1 Night Groove, 16/1 Valassini, 33/1 Wolfman, 40/1 Bluecoat, 50/1 Goldsmeadow, Sean Og, 66/1 Sadler´s Hill, 100/1 Homespun Magic, Notoverdear, Superfling.

Just want to start with this Novice Selling Hurdle over the Jumps as a certain type always wins this race and they usually come from the same track. Towcester has seen 17 renewals of this race and between April and June we have also seen 43 similar races run at this time of year. I want to oppose CORGADE who won at Towcester in a similar race 8 days ago at 40/1. CORDAGE was a lucky winner and you can tell he was not really fancied at 40/1. That day he beat DR DREAM (2nd) who would have won had he jumped the last in front. In 3rd place was TIFFIN DEANO and in 4th place was NIGHT GROOVE. I expect the winner to come from this Towcester race as it has done on many occasions in the past at Towcester. What we know about the 17 renewals of this race is that 16 of the 17 winners ran within the last month. Fitness matters a great deal on this track. A Run within 15 days is highly desirable and if that happens to be at Towcester then thats even better. You want to oppose the horses that have not had a recent run so I am going to oppose WATCH OUT who has not run in several weeks. Several of these are unfancied and face long absences as well and the winner ought to come from the front of the market. There has been 43 similar races between April and June. Its quite telling that horses with 1 previous hurdles race have struggled badly. These horses have a poor 1-86 record and seasonal debutants and once raced horses have really poor records. Thats why I feel the once raced CORDAGE will struggle to beat the horses he has just beaten at Towcester. Its also why I feel BETHANYS BOY comes out as vulnerable despite being able to view him either as a once raced horse as he ran over hurdles in 2006 just the once or as an unraced horse. However you treat BETHANYS BOY he has questions to answer. CORDAGE may well not be able to beat the horses he has just beaten at Towcester and there are precedents before with horses beaten in the same Towcester race coming out and winning this one. VALASSINI is not for me as a Mare as they have a poor record in this race. I cant have FLYING GREY as a horse with stamina doubts. He has not looked a natural stayer. Both his parents were Milers. I dont want a 4 year old that has stamina doubts on on of the stiffest tracks in the country. WOLFMAN looks too inexperienced and hasnt shown anything yet so I have to presume that the winner of this will come from Towcester 8 days ago and will have run behind CORDAGE that day. This means this race ought to be won by one of DR DREAM - TIFFIN DEANO or NIGHT GROOVE who were 2nd 3rd 4th last week in that race. DR DREAM comes with the uncomfortable knowledge that he will run in snatches and give Mc Coy a very unpleasant ride and he will probably trade a lot bigger in running but he may well have won that race 8 days ago had he jumped the last and you can argue that at these weights he really ought to beat Cordage this time. The issue with DR DREAM and TIFFIN DEANO is interesting. TIFFIN DEANO has every chance of beating DR DREAM but in the business end of this face you will have Mr E Cookson a 7lbs claimer who has never ridden a winner before (0-29) taking on Mc Coy on DR DREAM who by now will probably have looked like he was beaten several times already but who may also at that stage look like he is going to win with the best Jockey on him. I want to compromise and side with NIGHT GROOVE at 5/1. He was 4th in that key Towcester race but he also ran well the time before that and he may still have some improvement in him. At 5/1 each way I feel NIGHT GROOVE has every chance of taking this race and the 17 renewals suggest to me he comes from the right prep race.

* DR DREAM is now a Non runner
* This elevates NIGHT GROOVE to a better selection e/w

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B E V E R L E Y & M U S S E L B U R G H



BEVERLEY 2.20 - TURFTV SELLING STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 5f

13/8 Bahama Baileys, 11/2 Our Sunnie, Wave Hill, 15/2 Foreign Rhythm, 10/1 Caught In Paradise, 11/1 My Mate Pete, 14/1 Hot Bertie, 16/1 Planet Paradise, 20/1 Mill Creek, Wicksy Creek, 22/1 Heron, Sandies Choice, Watch This Place, 25/1 Foxy Jane, Rightcar Hull, 33/1 Lovely Lilling

2 SELECTIONS in a Split Stake Bet

1) BAHAMA BAILEYS to beat OUR SUNNIE in a Forecast

2) OUR SUNNIE to win

This is a 5f selling race for 3 year olds and these races are very rare. I think I have crafted 2 bets in this race that make a lot of sense. If BAHAMA BAILEYS wins - and on form he is a certainty - but on current well being he is
very opposable then I am confident OUR SUNNIE will have far too many guns for the rest and will come home
in second providing a decent forecast. If BAHAMA BAILEYS gets beaten then I can only see OUR SUNNIE winning and that second option will more than recover stakes. Quickly looking at some of the opposition to this pair. I think CAUGHT IN PARADISE is outclassed and out of form. He swapped hands last year for just £300 and that speaks volumes. FOREIGN RHYTHM makes no appeal coming from a maiden when a filly with 1 run this season. WAVE HILL ran badly last time and has to drop 2 furlongs. MY MATE PETE is not straight forward and has to cope with a low draw in this race and that is never easy here. I see BAHAMA BAILEYS breaking best and going for home on the rails right from the start. He will either stay there and not get caught or he will fold like a pack of cards
and I dont think you can predict which will happen. Mark Johnston clearly wants to get rid of BAHAMA BAILEYS
dropping him into selling class from handicaps and you can understand why after his seasonal debut. I isnt easy to
bet this horse today despite having backclass as a juvenile that would eat these for breakfast. If he was capable of rediscovering that sort of form you have to wonder why he ran so badly last time and why Johnston has dropped him into a seller. I think however there are reasons why you can give him some slack Whilst he finished last on his seasonal debut - He may well have gone off too fast. He was eased considerably last time once beaten which makes his run look far worse than it was. The drop in trip may help him. He was also on the wrong side of the track last time . Overall I see him as a horse you can actually give the benefit of the doubt too. The Danger has to be OUR SUNNIE who has quite rightly been well backed into 7/2. I can not see any sensible alternatives in this race. I like my two bets in the race

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MUSSELBURGH 2:40 - ST JAMES "SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT" HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-70) 7f30y

4/1 Viscountess, 6/1 Thomas Malory, 7/1 Arcetri, Kingstyle, Sweet Mind, 8/1 Novellen Lad, Veronicas Way
10/1 Orpen Bid, 12/1 Princess Rhianna, Red Tarn.

These 7f handicaps can be trappy affairs and not least at this intermediate trip but the strongest angle I can find concerns Fillies who have absences. In the Last 20 years we have seen 93 of these races in the Month of May. If you look at these 93 races and consider fillies that have been absent over a Month its pretty telling. They have a 2-160 record and that is my first port of call in this race. PRINCESS RHIANNA is rejected with a long absence and she also has to come from a 5f race which is very hard to do. I am also going to try and get VISCOUNTESS beaten as a filly thats been absent 39 days. The next off my list is SWEET WIND who is a filly absent 49 days and VERONICAS WAY whose absent over a Month. There is an argument that says that if fillies absent over a month are such bad bets then perhaps ARCETRI a filly absent 26 days should also be opposed especially as she comes from the All weather and has to drop in trip as well and I can understand
that and she isnt for me much as she "Technically" passes that statistic. I dont think ORPEN BID will be good enough. KINGSTYLE comes from a 6f handicap and Has a 46 day break. I looked at all similar races since 1994 and horses that came from 6f handicaps without a run within a month were 0-47 and I dont see KINGSTYLE as the one. THOMAS MALORY is the other runner that comes from a 6f handicap and my gut feeling with him is that he is a bit too exposed to be stepping up in trip. I can not find an exposed horse that stepped up from a 6f handicap in any similar race. I have only found one that managed it wih over 13 previous races and THOMAS MALORY with 21 runs looks far too exposed to me especially when you consider the most experienced runner in this race apart from him has just 6 previous races. He has had over 3 times as many runs as every other runner. RED TARM has ran 3 times as a 2 year old in maidens and has his first run in handicaps today. Bryan Smart feels he is "well handicapped" and He is also very well bred but I have to take him on with
that profile and with his trainers record. In 93 similar races horses with 3 runs as a juvenile and coming from a 2yo maiden didnt score well. They had a 3-78 record and whilst they do win none had as much weight as RED TARN. His trainers record also worries me. Bryan Smart has ran many 3 year olds in handicaps. At the start of this season they were 0-34 when having 3 runs and 0-20 when coming from 2yo maidens and up to now this has not been the Bryan Smart Modus Operandi so RED TARM has to be taken on. I thought NOVELLEN LAD was pretty interesting as you can really make a case form him not staying a Mile last time out. He is well entered up this week and may be able to win a 0-67 on his handicap debut, Not least when several of these face long absences and other problems. NOVELLEN LAD is my Pick.

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MUSSELBURGH 3.10

4/6 Proud Linus, 9/2 He´s Got Rhythm, 5/1 Rio Sands, 10/1 Johnston´s Glory, 14/1 Irish Brooke, Still Life, 25/1 Embra, 33/1 Next Best, Tumbleweed Di, 66/1 White Elephant, 100/1 Orangina Wood, 200/1 Compton Lad, Sokoke.

I have no idea what to make of PROUD LINUS in this 5f maiden and the fact we have so few of these races doesnt help much at all. Small stable. Very unusually he was introduced into a Listed Race at 100/1 and then went straight to a Group 1 and in neither race was he very competetive. Just how flattered he is or how much of a Geese or Swan he is I really dont know. I do know that I couldnt bet him at odds on in a big field with almost 8 months absence. I would far rather bet HE'S GOT RHYTHM each way in the race. With 8 rank outsiders in a 13 runner race its not competetive and any chinks in the favourite and he should be able to go close. He may be meeting one too good today but PROUD LINUS is far from the proven article and at these prices it has to be HE'S GOT RHYTHM each way.

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MUSSELBURGH 3.40

7/4 Kasumi, 11/4 Cha Cha Cha, 9/2 Keisha Kayleigh, 5/1 Flying Valentino, 6/1 Fancy Feathers, 40/1 Grethel.

I think the class fillies KASUMI and CHA CHA CHA will dominate in this race. Rated 83 and 82 they only have
a 0-70 class field to beat and they should both be capable of doing that. Cleraly GRETHAL is outclassed in this
race and I cant have FLYING VALENTINO coming from 6f to an 8f handicap. There has been 20 fillies handicaps
at this time of year and none of the 20 winners came from a 6f race. KEISHA KAYLEIGH won a 0-66 Class 5 race
last time but bumps into two really decent fillies and they should have too much for her in terms of class. I can
not see past KASUMI and CHA CHA CHA. Much depends on how much if any KASUMI improves from her
seasonal debut and how CHA CHA CHA copes with the fastest ground she has faced before. Purely on profiles
I see CHA CHA CHA as the better bet as she is fitter and more battle hardened and proven on the track but the
ground is an issue. I think you can save on KASUMI at 5/4 and bet CHA CHA CHA at 7/2 anbe be confident
you are covered either way but in terms of a selection I think CHA CHA CHA will handle the ground and win.

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BEVERLEY 3:50 - SIEMENS IN PROCESS HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-90) 1m100y

11/8 Yes One, 11/4 Nevada Desert, 4/1 Princess Cocoa, 5/1 Crocodile Bay, 25/1 Fever.

I would be tempted with NEVADA DESERT in this race. I dont want CROCODILE BAY with just
one run this year and a 52 day absence. YES ONE is a big danger but winning a 7f handicap is no
great advantage when it comes to winning an extended mile handicap and I think he is beatable.
NEVADA DESERT was 3rd in this race last year. I commented that day that he needed another
race having ran just twice and I think that was true. This year he has had that extra race. I also
feel last years race was a lot harder to win. After he placed in last years race he won twice and
got himself badly handicapped but now he is down to a lower mark than he ran in last years race
and I dont see why he can not come back and win this today. Far from a certainty and its a tight
little tactical affair but I fekt NEVADA DESERT had as good a profile as any and select him to win

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MUSSELBURGH 4.40

7/2 Annibale Caro, 9/2 Living On A Prayer, 11/2 Barbirolli, Hugs Destiny, 7/1 Chip N Pin, 8/1 Hits Only Vic, 9/1 Qaasi, 12/1 The Quantum Kid, 14/1 Falimar, 20/1 Madge, 100/1 Fardi, Stravonian.

This is a 12f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses and I am following the stats through to their Natural conclusion.
I would oppose THE QUANTUM KID coming from a 3yo handicap. I am against FALIMAR coming from a
Mile race. I think Madge -Stravonian -Fardi look outclassed. I dont really want a filly with one run this year
and a 6 week absence like LIVING ON A PRAYER or a filly dropping half a mile like CHIP N PIN. I am against
horses like HITS ONLY VBIC coming from 3yo maidens with long absences. In 191 similar races at this time
of year horses like ANNIBALE CARO that come from claimers had a pretty dismal 1-82 record. BARBIROLLI
didnt achieve enough last time out. I am uncomfortable ith QAASI hurdling and having 8 weeks break so I
felt the strongest runner statistically was HUGS DESTINTY who has a recent race to his name - track form
and guaranteed stamina. HUGS DESTINY came out best for me.

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