Saturday January 12th

1st Message

We have to go down the "Double Message" route today. Next Message is coming at 4pm which will of course focus on Wolverhampton this evening if it passes an inspection.

Warwick is now on having passed an inspection. Thats a big surprise. You will appreciate that I let Warwick alone and concentrated Most efforts on Wolverhampton tonight. There is now an Inspection at Wolverhampton so its a bit Farcical. If Wolverhampton passes the inspection then
I will send a 4pm Message. If it fails that inspection then this message will be the only message today. Done a few Notes at Lingfield and Kempton but its hardly worth reading. I looked at the Warwick card for the first time this morning. The Warwick stuff is a bit Rushed but Ive done a bit and feel confident enough to Highlight one race today from this first message. The One race I think you should play in from this message is the 3.30 at Warwick. I have had the following bet myself. Wont Make it a Best Bet or an Account Bet. Will wait and see what the second message offers later assuming Wolves is on. There wont be an account bet this evening.

Warwick 3.30

I have backed ARAFAN Each Way at 13/2

I have also has a win bet at 8/1 on BALLYSHAN

* MESSAGE AT 4PM If Wolverhampton passes the inspection

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TODAYS RACING


Yesterday the message had 5 selections and 4 winners. Not as impressive as that sounds as there were a host of odds on shots winning. It is not my game plan to be selecting horses at odds on but I didnt see many alternatives yesterday and as they all won it was clearly the right thing to do.

Bit of Housekeeping to start with. The 0871 pin number is going to change overnight. There will be a New pin number that will be Valid on Monday Morning. I will send a seperate message tonight with details of the access codes.

Sunday there will not be an E Mail. Carlisle has been abandoned leaving just Kempton and we will not have enough to go on. We will be back on Monday where Southwell takes centre stage.


LINGIELD

The last thing you need at Lingfield is small fields and there are too many of them. Perhaps I should have
given the meeting a Pass and swerved it but I had to Mention one of the leading sand owners Nigel Sheilds
who I felt had 3 interesting entries at Lingfield today. NIGEL SHIELDS could have a Good day today. I wont
pretend that I am expecting all 3 to win but they are all worthy of a few comments.

Nigel Shields runs DARING AFFAIR in the Claiming race at 2.45. Its not a great frame with 7 runners and 4
big runners in the race. Statistically fillies like DARING AFFAIR have a dreadful record in Lingfield claimers
at this distance. Thats only unless they have a very recent run. Fillies have a 2-101 record in 10f Claimers at
this trip but both winners ran within 4 days and both placed on their last start something DARING AFAIR
has done. It strikes me that its not inconcievable to see DARING AFFAIR win this today having ran very
well at Kempton last night. DARING AFFAIR was second last night - and she probably didnt get the trip after
travelling very well. It was a decent enough claimer. She may have a nice fitness edge here. She faces two 11
year olds. SAMWAAH is rated the same by the handiapper at these weights but has ran just twice in seven
months. BARTON SANDS has not had many races this year and DARING AFFAIR is rated 10lbs better by
the handicapper and only has to give him 1lb. INSIDE STORY has not ran in 4 weeks and the handicapper has
DARING AFFAIR as a 6lbs better horse. This is a winable race for Nigel Shields and her run last night may be
the advantage that DARING AFFAIR needs to win this race. At 7/2 I felt she was worth a Menton.

Nigel Shields also owns QADAR in the Conditions Stakes at 2.55. There has been a late non runner which has
left the race with only 7 runners which is a shame. I think QADAR has a decent chance of beating BONUS and
the rest of them today. Its a race that has never gone to the 3 year olds which hurts the likes of DALKEY GIRL
and GROSS PROPHET . I have to take the view that a 273 day break could well be too much for RED CAPE who
was beaten in this race last year when not having such a long absence. I see BONUS as clearly a big danger but
most past winners of similar races come through the handicapping structure and QADAR must have a reasonable
chance.He was in a 3 way photo (with Red Cape) for second in this race last year and I feel he can beat Red Cape
today as he could be ring rusty. I think QADAR had a reasonable chance in a day Nigel Shields has 3 big runners.

Finally Nigel Shields owns FUSILI who runs in the 3.25 at Lingfield. FUSILI won the race last year and comes here
with a more recent run than he did last year. Wouldnt be a huge shock if he could win this again. Clearly the least
likely of the 3 to win for Shields but he won last years race and he has to be considered.


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KEMPTON


KEMPTON 2:15 -INTERCASINO.CO.UK HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-130) 2m

2/1 Daraybad, 7/2 Sebastiano, 5/1 Lindop, 6/1 Penn Da Benn, 13/2 Dancer´s Serenade, 16/1 Mud Monkey, 20/1 Charlotte Vale.

Thought I would have a quick look at this race. Its a Class 3 (0-123) Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles. Since the turn of the century
there has been 26 of these Quality hurdles that have been run in January. When you consider that seasonal debutants have a
0-28 record and that DARAYBAD has been absent 386 days after fracturing a Pelvis there has to be a serious doubt about him
being fit enough. He isnt a straightforward horse. Its very soft ground. Its a serious injury - a long absence - and DARAYBAD
has been weak in the market. I would think he is best left alone. The 26 similar races in January like this show that lightly raced
horses dominate as they do most quality handicap hurdles. In fact 25 of the 26 winners had ran under 20 times before over any
obstacles. Horses that had raced more than that had a 1-59 record and that has to be a worry for SEBASTIANO. He looks to have
a strong form chance but he is by far and away the most exposed horse in the race. He has ran 3 times more than every other
horse in the race and you have to ask yourself why 25 of the 26 most similar races run to this in the last 7 years show experienced
horses as having awful records. I would take on both DARYAYBAD and SEBASTIANO. You can ignore CHARLOTTE VALE with
confidence. I cant have MUD MONKEY as he comes from a 3 year old only race. Thats never been done before in similar races. I
cant entirely rule out PENN DA BENN statistically but what an awful profile. Just 2 runs. One in England and hammered in that
maiden hurdle and now straight into 0-123 class. Its pretty easy to see why he is drifting and out to 12/1. LINDOP was considered
and he could run well but He doesnt look well handicapped and his trainer says he is not so with Topweight I will take him on. I
think DANCER'S SERENADE is the one. What you have with DANCERS SERENADE is a horse thats far safer and with less
questions to ask. He is clearly the solid one. Consistent. Deserves his rating and Solid enough. At 5/1 there are far worse bets in
the race than DANCERS SERENADE.

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KEMPTON 3:15 - INTERCASINO.CO.UK LANZAROTE HURDLE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/4 Panjo Bere, 100/30 Nycteos, 11/2 Shatabdi, 7/1 Gabier, 8/1 Rio De Janeiro, 16/1 Lyes Green, 20/1 Aston Lad, Kawagino, La Dame Brune.

This 2m 5f handicap has a long history. Its called the Lanzarote these days but isnt the old Lanzarote that was ran over 2 miles. Its
still essentially the same race though despite the Name Change. Looks interesting. There are 9 runners. There are 4 outsiders. I
feel you can ignore Lyes Green - Aston Lad -Kawagino -La Dame Brune. Pricewise have plumped for SHATABDI but she doesnt
appeal to me as a female seasonal debutant. I have looked at all Class 2 and Class 3 handicap hurdles over this trip in January for
female seasonal debutants and the record was 0-30. I am happy to oppose her. In the 14 direct Kempton renewals Horses aged 5
had the worst record. They were 1-30 which isnt great. The only 5 year old winner was back in 1999 and that may have been a fluke
as race reports about that race stated " A strange race, with the frontrunners setting a suicidal pace ". Either way I will oppose the
5 year olds GABIER and PANJO BERE who comes from a weak triial race at Fontwell. All 13 horses coming from the same race lost
in this and overall I would marginally prefer the chance of NYCTEOS. He had the best profile in my view.

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WARWICK

Obviously the Inspections and the usual Farce over the Weather has caught me out at Warwick. Expecting the
meeting to be Abandoned it is now "on" . I havent had to do the ground work I would have wanted and cant
therefore do a Full and Complete message at Warwick. I will make some observations that stood out to me

WARWICK 12.50

7/2 Brousse En Feux, 6/1 Nil Bleu, 13/2 Phardessa, 7/1 Rawaabet, 8/1 Baseball Ted, Omme Antique, 10/1 El Zorro, 14/1 Hemington, 16/1 Fair Shake, The Flying Phenom, Wavertree One Off, 20/1 Marker, Tudor Buck, 33/1 Galley Law, Kirkhammerton, 100/1 Midnight Spirit.


I would have opposed the 3 market leaders in any preview. You want a a Horse thats ideally Male - Aged 5 or more
and doesnt have a big weight. You also want a horse that has never won over hurdles or bumpers before.Maidens
have a great record. My strategy in this race would be to oppose the following. I would like to think I could get all 3
market leaders beaten

I would oppose BROUSSE EN FEUX as a female with a big weight having won and looking exposed
I would oppose PHARDESSA as a female with a big weight having won before
I would oppose NIL BLEU as a 4 year old coming from a 3yo only race


WARWICK 2.00

I would have selected TANIKOS to repeat his 2005 win in the race but thats Part -Guesswork


WARWICK 2.30 - TOTESPORT.COM CLASSIC CHASE (A HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f

4/1 Arnold Layne, 5/1 High Chimes, Trust Fund, 13/2 Not Left Yet, 15/2 Blue Splash, 10/1 Kilbeggan Blade, 16/1 Naunton Brook, Sixo, 20/1 D´Argent, Philson Run, 25/1 Mr Ed, 33/1 Strong Resolve, 40/1 Fair Question, 50/1 Mr Fluffy.

One of my favourite races much as they have messed around with the race dramatically over the years with big prize money
boosts and chopping the distance and its pretty unsafe statistically on some levels. Any preview would have elaborated
more but contained arguments that expand the following thoughts and considerations

* I would oppose KILBEGGAN BLADE with confidence with that weight
* NAUNTON BROOK will in my view get beaten over 100 lengths
* Horses running well in the Welsh National have abysmal records in this race
* Even if he doesnt Fall or Pull up I predict you will need binoculors to see him at the end
* Dont go laying him - He is too big - but I dont think he will place and I,d love a price about 100 lengths
* I would not have selected BLUE SPLASH for a combination of a high weight and inexperiene
* Wouldnt have selected STRONG RESOLVE being a 12 year old. Horses aged 11 + were poor
* Wouldnt fancy MR ED on class
* D'ARGENT out through age and weight
* I wouldnt give SIXO the benefit of the doubt - Dislike his age - his huge absence and his inexperience
* This leaves Just 4 horses
* ARNOLD LAYNE - TRUST FUND - NOT LEFT YET - HIGH CHIMES
* I feel NOT LEFT YET is too inexperienced
* The weight puts me off TRUST FUND a bit

* I feel HIGH CHIMES is the bets bet and ARNOLD LAYNE the saver

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WARWICK 3:30 - PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE SERIES (QUALIFIER) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m1f

9/4 Cryptic, 6/1 Ballyshan, Kealshore Lad, 8/1 Arafan, Buena Vista, 12/1 Matcho Pierji, 14/1 Key Phil, 25/1 Silver Sister, 40/1 Barati.

* This is a 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
* Warwick has had 6 renewals of this race
* There has been 33 Handicaps in January between 2m 7f and 3m 1f in Class 2 and 3

I do like these Long distance handicaps. Theres been 33 of them in January. I have stretched the distance from 23f to 25f
and the Class range and that should be even more accurate statistically. I Find the Following factors quite interesting.

* Horses with Under 4 runs won just 1 of the 33 races
* CRYPTIC has ran just 3 times and comes from a Novice Hurdle
* Only 2 of the 33 winners came from Novice Hurdles and none had under 5 runs
* I dont like horses that step up from 2m 4f or shorter
* They have a weak 1-53 record and the following horses fail that
* BUENA VISTA - CRYPTIC -KEALSHORE LAD -KEY PHIL -MATCHO PIERJI -SILVER SISTER
* Seasonal debutants dont score well with a 1-44 record
* BUENA VISTA fails that and also has 11st 12lbs
* The 6 Warwick winners of this race all had 11st or lower
* They all had plenty of racing that season as well

The Shortlist has to be BALLYSHAN and ARAFAN

I have backed ARAFAN Each Way at 13/2
I have also has a win bet at 8/1 on BALLYSHAN

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