Monday Febuary 18th

The Weather has derailed us for a couple of days. Carlisle has been abandoned and tomorrows Jumps cards are in serious danger from Frost. We can only play with the cards we are dealt and today our hand is sadly only Lingfield. I have done two races there I feel I have something to say that is worth saying. Gone with good priced selections but its not a day for big stakes and the weather has
done us today in terms of strong bets.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

We lost Towcester yesterday. We knew we had lost Market Rasen already today. With temperatures forecast to be very low overnight there was no way I was going to spend all night on Carlisle's card and then watch in get cancelled after multiple inspections. Sadly that just left a tricky Lingfield card. This track is the unfairest and the hardest to read and thats a pretty established view by most of the games professionals so lets not fool ourselves here. When you fancy one strongly at Lingfield you
have to rethink and rethink again and even if staying with your view there you have to accept that tactics can render a great bet impotent just because of the way the race has been run. I have had a Good look at Lingfield and Made some observations today but you know this place can not be fully trusted. Therefore take some care today.

Staking issues now. Just 12 more messages to go before the Staking changes slightly. The Best Bets will be staked which will lead to more bets. People still ask me how to make best use of the messages. I cant be clear enough. I havent just made it up. I have been saying it for years. Follow the Top of the message and the bets in there only. The account bets and best bets have been independantly making very good profits for a very long time. The figures are in black and white. Rceorded. Proven. Available
to anyone who wants them. On the Message Board. Thats Fact. Both the Account bets and Best Bets are in good profit and have been for over 2 years. I spend hours on Each message. I take a pride in it. I know when I have spent enough time on a race and when I have done my rechecking and even though the message may not say that all the time I know when I have a race I can work with. I also know when I dont and when I am just "Message filling" or just chancing my arm. The only way anyone can be losing
long term with this service is by picking and choosing from the bottom of the message. The Bottom of the message is there for a purpose and its not there to throw endless money at especially when the stakes some use are the same as the Main Selections. Many people have no comprehension of how difficult it is to make decent profits for other people without getting losing runs. Thats part of the reason Tipsters get a bad name and are often felt to underachieve. Its a missunderstanding. The smallest of profits is a very hard thing to do for all services. The fact we have a checkable and proven large profit over the
last couple of years is No fluke. Its the rewards of hard work and experience. For some people to come along and think they know my own mind better than me and to start throwing money at races in the 2nd half of the message that havent been endorsed and that have been rejected as not good enough to stake bets in is ridiculous. Stay with the Top of the Message only if you want bets I am confident about.

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LINGFIELD 1:20 - FAMILY TO PONTIN'S AMATEUR RIDERS' HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-52) 1m4f

4/1 Ndola, 9/2 Krasivi´s Boy, 6/1 Wizard Looking, 8/1 Carlton Scroop, Granary Girl, 10/1 Rubilini, Trackattack, 14/1 Ghaill Force, Ronsard, 25/1 Christalini, Elms Schoolboy, Fulvio, Katie Kingfisher, 33/1 Ben Bacchus, Pure Brief, 50/1 Piquet.

* Interesting Amateur Riders Handicap over 12f
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 74 similar 12f handicaps here but not for Amateur riders
* Really looks like a race where several have serious problems
* The List of horses "I cant bet in this race" keeps growing
* Its a very hard race to bet the winner of but I will end up with a shortlist
* NDOLA is not for me - That Draw in stall 15 is a serious problem
* Draw results inthe last few years prove stalls 15 and 16 struggle badly over this C+D
* This for me takes out NDOLA who is also a 9 year old
* Horses aged 9 and over hardly did well with a 1-44 record in the 74 similar races
* RONSARD is rejected from stall 16
* WIZARD LOOKING is tipped in the Racing Post having had a 612 day absence
* They say the jockey booking is "significant" despite his absence
* They may be right - he may defy his absence but the stats say he wont and here is why.
* Between January and March on ALL 4 Sand tracks there has been 2332 races at 10f and over
* Thats any kind of race as long as its on sand in these 3 months and over 10 furlongs
* Horses that had a) Over 13 career starts and b) An Absence of 18 Months or more were 0-179
* WIZARD LOOKING has had 22 races and has ana absence of 20 months
* That 0-179 record of exposed horses suggests to me WIZARD LOOKING wont defy his absence
* PIQUET wont stay for me and should get outclassed anyway
* FULVIO wont defy a 160 day break as an 8 year old in my view
* PURE BRIEF is not likely to be fit enough or ready to win aged 11
* There are a lot of horses that I feel have serious statistical questions to answer
* I am opposing these horses despite finding the "odd one or two that have overcome it" before
* Fillies that step up from 8f or 9f trips have not scored well at all
* The odd one has slipped through the net here mainly down to falsely run races
* They do not score well at all though and it is a disadvantage and I am opposing them
* GRANARY FIRL is a female that steps up from 9f and She comes from a seller
* Both factors are weak statistically especially for an exposed Mare like her
* In the 15 renewals of this race fillies have a 0-45 record anyway
* RUBILINI is a filly coming from 8f and thats a very tough thing to overcome
* CHRISTALINI is a male but has to step up in trip and looks an unlikely winner
* ELMS SCHOOLBOY is a 6 year old trying to step up from 9f or shorter
* In 74 races Horses aged 5 or more that tried that had a 1-59 record
* KATIE KINGFISHER is a filly - all 45 fillies in this race were beaten
* In 74 races fillies that ran within the past fortnight also struggled (1-73)
* I am far from convinced BEN BACCHUS will be fit enough to win
* He also comes from a 0-45 Classified race and only 1 of the 74 winners did that
* GHAILL FORCE is fine statistically but a 0-41 career record doesnt appeal much
* He is 0-19 on the Flat and none of the 74 winners were maidens after 19 runs
* TRACKATTACK is statistically all right but other problems worry me
* TRACKATTACK is not easy to fancy - I just "pass" him coming down from 12f
* He hasnt the kindest draw though and he has a jockey having his first ride in public
* The 2 strongest runners statistically are these
* KRASIVI'S BOY - CARLTON SCOOP
* KRASIVI'S BOY won this race last year but hasnt really proven himself to be in form
* He is still a serious runner though and has to be near the top of any shortlist
* CARLTON SCOOP is well handicappped and has proven he has the class to win a bad race
* I will go with CARLTON SCOOP at 10/1 and save on KRASIVI'S BOY around 11/2

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LINGFIELD 1:55 - GREAT FAMILY MEMORIES @ PONTIN'S HOLIDAYS SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m

11/4 Trees Of Green, 100/30 Arctic Desert, Northern Desert, 9/2 Sendreni, 8/1 Blue Quiver, 16/1 Tapas Lad,
20/1 Carry On Cleo, Naughty Thoughts, 50/1 Kazakstan, 66/1 Doctor Ned, Stratn Jack.

* This is a selling race over a Mile for all aged horses
* Lingfield has had 39 of these races at this time of year
* I think you can take out the 3 rank outsiders
* Kazakstan -Doctor Ned -Stratn Jack look out of their depth
* There are a few horses I cant bet in this race
* I am against the favourite TREES OF GREEN mainly as he comes from a 6f race
* Horses that do that had big problems when inexperienced
* There has been 253 selling races at a Mile since 1993
* Thats 253 races that were run anytime and anyplace on sand and grass all year round
* Horses that came from 6f races like TREES OF GREEN won just 6 of the 253 races
* Horses that came from 6f races with Under 9 career starts had a 0-83 career record
* TREES OF GREEN has only had 7 runs
* Horses that tried it with under 13 career starts only had a 1-113 record anyway
* Maidens that tried it like TREES OF GREEN had a 0-131 record
* TREES OF GREEN has to be opposed in this race
* I Cant completely rule out SENDRENI but I dont want him
* He ran 4 times in France - and is now having his English debut for Don Cantillon
* He looks too inexperienced for me with 4 runs much as his form is impossible to rate
* In 39 Lingfield races Horses that had under 9 runs had a 0-41 record
* That doesnt augur well for SENDRENI and I am against him
* BLUE QUIVER is an 8 year old that has been absent 4 Months
* I looked at 253 selling races for horses that age and older absent 4 months or more
* I found a weak 1-43 record - It isnt impossible but for as old and exposed as him its a problem
* NORTHERN DESERT has a chance in this race but he isnt without risk
* He has just ran an absolute stinker - after previously winning a seller
* He was fully entitled to have won 2 runs ago as the best weighted horse
* He faces better opponents today and you still have his last flop to consider
* What I found interesting was that he was sold last October for just £1450
* That suggests the horse has not got much ability and I dont want to trust him
* I dont want the 3 year old filly CARRY ON CLEO
* Between January and June there has been 147 seling races over a Mile on grass or sand
* Three year old Fillies have a 0-65 record in the first 6 months of the year
* Look at the 147 selling races in the first 6 months of the year
* Horses aged 3 like TAPAS LAD had a weak 4-138 record
* None were as exposed as TAPAS LAD and none did it at Lingfield
* None managed it when failing to place on their last run as TAPAS LAD has
* None managed it dropping from 11f as TAPAS LAD does
* There are 2 runners that stood out to me as statistically sound
* ARCTIC DESERT and NAUGHTY THOUGHTS
* There has been Money for NAUGHTY THOUGHTS and despite being female shes ok
* Fillies are strong when they fit the patterns that NAUGHTY THOUGHTS fits
* That is aged 4 - at least 9 runs - a decent last run - a recent run - a pro jockey
* At this time of year there were 13 fillies that could say that on the Sand
* 5 of the 13 fillies won and a further 3 were placed and considering 4 were big prices its excellent
* NAUGHTY THOUGHTS is one of the best weighted horses at the weights
* She is also bred nicely being a half sister to the class Blue Bajan a C+D winner
* ARCTIC DESERT has a strong chance with a recent run but he wouldnt be reliable
* I favour a win bet on NAUGHTY THOUGHTS around 9/1 and a saver on ARCTIC DESERT

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