Sunday November 30th

No Account Bet

Has to be a quiet one today with Carlisle abandoned
and no selections on the day. Only really drawn to the
one race at Kempton today. Speculative 16/1 selection
on KAYSTAR RIDGE with a saver but not going to make
a him an official selection of the day. Lets end a very
good week with nothing more than a small interest bet
if anyone wants to have one. There is No message on
Monday. Best chance for a day off and there could be
big issues with a brand new Racing Post site which is
bound to slow me down until I get the full hang of it and
that will cause short term problems.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


No good yesterday with HOUSE OF BOURBON coming a gallant
second albeit a well beaten second. I was hoping the winner was going to run out of petrol but he stayed on well leaving us clear second best and with nothing back for Three miles of misery. The Hennessy was also 3 miles of misery. I did go cold on Albertas Run but he never ran
his race but with half a dozen picks I wouldnt have had the winner a rank outsider who failed several stats and was a French Bred out of form horse with Cheekpieces on. I felt Saturday's cards were far from easy and overall they beat us. Nabbed a decent winner or two from the bottom of the message but it was a typical national hunt saturday in
winter with fog and freezing weather and bad ground and we failed.

We have lost CARLISLE today as its been abandoned due to frost and that has left us short of decent oppurtunities. The only horse I liked at Leicester is far too short to worry about (Lake Legend 12.45pm) and KEMPTON has its usual mix of thoroughly unpleasant and testing races.
I haven't got enough for a detailed message today. I want to stay with just one race at Kempton in a short message today.



KEMPTON 4:15

BET MULTIPLES - BETDAQ HANDICAP (C6) (3yo+,0-55) 6f

5/2 Bountiful Bay, 4/1 Welsh Opera, 5/1 Sarah´s Art, 10/1 Reigning Monarch, 12/1 Duke Of Milan, Kaystar Ridge, 14/1 The Little Fizzer, 16/1 Bye Baby Bunting, Loyal Royal, Mind Alert, Mr Rev, 25/1 Caustic Wit.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* There has been 92 similar races at this time of year
* I want to oppose the favourite BOUNTIFUL BAY
* She is a 3 year old filly with 7 starts coming from a 5f race
* Between September and December there were 704 handicaps at 6f
* Thats 704 races over 4 months at any track in any class
* Only 6 of the 704 winners were 3 year old fillies from 5f races
* Of these 6 winners none had under 9 career starts
* All 64 that tried as BOUNTIFUL BAY does failed
* That suggests to me BOUNTIFUL BAY should be overlooked
* THE LITTLE FIZZER is a 3yo filly that comes from a claimer
* That was over 5f and no 3yo filly did that
* BYE BABY BUNTING is a 3yo filly beaten 10 + lengths last time
* Very few fillies overcame heavy defeats like she attempts
* CAUSTIC WIT is out as a 10 year old coming from a 5f race
* No horse managed that when running so poorly in that race
* SARAH´S ART- DUKE OF MILAN have to be considered
* I see both as shortlist but not selection material
* Both have unsatisfactory profiles in my view
* SARAH´S ART ran well last time and is a potential winner
* He does have some problems though
* He comes from a 5f race and he has a 39 day absence
* He has also had just 2 runs this season and thats a worry
* In 92 races only 1 horse came from 5f with under 6 runs that year
* That sole winner didnt have a months absence
* Overall I think he has an unsatisfactory profile without being a negative
* He wouldnt be my personal choice to win this race
* DUKE OF MILAN has ran just once since July
* Thats not enough for an exposed horse in my view
* Certainly not from a horse that has no real backclass
* MR REV comes from a maiden race
* The issue with horses that do that is simple
* You are far more likely to win from a maiden if you are a filly
* Male horses that do that have a 0-42 record
* I looked at all 6f handicaps from July to December
* No older male horse came from a maiden to win any of them
* MR REV is therefore overlooked.
* I dont fancy MIND ALERT in this race
* He is a 7 year old thats had just one run since May
* That was a well beaten run at 33/1 and he may need more runs
* I dont fancy LOYAL ROYAL whose been in the doldrums a while
* He has only ever won a maiden and is 0-14 in handicaps
* He has ran just once in 61 days and didnt do enough in that race

SHORTLIST

* KAYSTAR RIDGE - REIGNING MONARCH - WELSH OPERA

* REIGNING MONARCH comes from a 5f race
* I have no issue with that as it was just 5 days ago
* Horses that run well in 5f races within a week score well
* REIGNING MONARCH has a decent chance of winning this
* I have shortlisted him at 10/1 but dont want to bet 3 in the race
* I marginally prefer the other pair so if he wins so be it
* WELSH OPERA is a 3yo filly that comes from a maiden
* Fillies from maidens are fine with a 2-23 record in 92 races
* She could be well handicapped off 57
* She split horses rated 74 and 65 in that maiden at level weights
* That was a strong run as she dropped from 8.5f to 5.5f that day
* That was her first run since leaving Amanda Perrett
* It may be Stuart Williams has discovered she is better at 6f
* Imposible stable to predict though and that worries me
* The 3rd horse that day has come out and won since
* KAYSTAR RIDGE ran very well in 4th last time
* He had a lot to do that day dropping from an 8f race
* The winner of that ran got the run of the race and had backclass
* He would have been favourite to win todays race
* The runner up (River Kirov) has come out and won
* Maiden 3 year olds like KAYSTAR RIDGE are fine statistically
* You can ignore his penaltimate run up from 6f to 8f
* His previous races this year were all when unfancied in maidens
* He had little or no chance of winning those
* He looks well handicapped in his 2nd in a Nursery over this C+D
* His stable are in form and he has been underestimated here
* 16/1 about KAYSTAR RIDGE looks generous to me

SELECTION

KAYSTAR RIDGE 16/1 EACH WAY

WELSH OPERA - Saver Bet 9/2

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