Thursday Febuary 7th

No Account Bet Today

I have decided on 4 selections in todays Message and gone with a short priced horse as my Best Bet of the Day. Plenty of things to say today and a couple of important points to mention before the bets and analysis.

Todays Best Bet

Southwell 3.00 - COPPERBOTTOMED

* SECOND MESSAGE TODAY around 5.30pm

There will be a second E Mail today around 5.30pm. It will contain some Talking Points that hint at a few changes I am likely to make shortly. It contains Todays Ante Post Column as well. It will also contain a preview of the 9.20 at Wolverhampton. I want the winner of this race. I feel I can get it but I need more time and need to spend far more time than I have on the race and look at a few Videos. Because of the Callback and the fact that it wll put some of you out I wont stake a bet on the Horse tonight. It will just be a standard selection. Cant give it you now as I dont know what it is but I like the race and know I have a chance in the race and feel its worth a couple of extra hours study and a second message.

* NO E MAIL FRIDAY

We will be having a Sunday Message this week. At this stage I intend to do no E Mail tomorrow and use the
Message board and the 0871 line for any business on Friday. If I spot something thats really strong I will change my mind and do an email but at this stage it looks like a message board Friday and that will be replaced with a Sunday Message this week.


* TODAYS SELECTIONS


Southwell 3.00 - COPPERBOTTOMED

Taunton 2.20-SEVEN IS MY NUMBER(Each Way at 5/2 or bigger)

Taunton 3.50 -IMPERIAL HARRY (with a saver on Wild Tonto)

Huntingdon 2.10- LIGHT YIELD Each Way

May well be a David Pipe dominated day. I like both his runners (above) at Taunton and I also feel he might
win the first race at Huntingdon with NOBLE SHAM. The banker of the day has to be COPPERBOTTOMED at Southwell but he is a shade of odds on and thats not helpful. In terms of my strongest bet today I would go with COPPERBOTTOMED. Short Price but so was yesterdays winner and I decided to go down that route again rather than an each way double in the 2.20 and 3.50.


Todays Best Bet

Southwell 3.00 - COPPERBOTTOMED

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

The Racing analysis in the message starts at HUNTINGDON. Doesnt last long. Hated the Card and didnt spend much time there. I loved TAUNTON and feel I have some strong choices there. Then it moves to 4 race at SOUTHWELL where I feel one short priced winner is likely.

HUNTINGDON


Really didnt fancy the Card much and I didnt have nearly enough time to do it in detail. Just a couple of things to say before I look at TAUNTON and SOUTHWELL

Huntingdon 1.40 - 3m 2f Handicap Hurdle

100/30 Noble Sham, 5/1 Stars Delight, 7/1 Back In Business, Jackie Boy, Quasimodo, 12/1 Corrib Eclipse, Glen Omen, Izzykeen, 16/1 Notaproblem, 20/1 Irishkawa Bellevue, 25/1 Ortega, See More Jock, 33/1 New Perk, Timetwogo, 100/1 Fabrezan.

* I would oppose STARS DELIGHT as a 11 year old seasonal debutant
* The only horses that won these races as old as that had very recent runs. Cant see him winning first time
* I found in these races that exposed horses with 21 + runs needed 4 runs that year to get fit
* A Mixture of experience and exposure with under 4 runs that year produced negative results
* This is why I would oppose the following horses
* BACK IN BUSINESS - NOTAPROBLEM - IRISHKAWA BELLEVUE -
* I am against horses absent 10 weeks or more that step up in trip as they have a 0-44 record
* CORRIB ECLIPSE - NEW PERK fail that
* No problem at all with Chasers like NOBLE SHAM and it wouldnt surprise me if he won
* All I will say is that the Negatives above all have pretty poor profiles.

Huntingdon 2.10

The market support and highly unusual profile from FLEETWOOD FOREST looks very significant and he looks the best option in a race I had no strong trends for.


Huntingdon 2.40

3/1 Cathedral Rock, 11/2 Shardakhan, 6/1 Bengo, Cash King, 7/1 Sea Cadet, 8/1 Georges Boy, 9/1 Stagecoach Opal, 12/1 Royal Kicks, 14/1 Leopold, 25/1 Absolut Power.

Strange race and I dont know how the trends will work out this year. All I can see is that exposed horses have
never won this race and that almost every past winner came from a Novice Chase and not a handicap. You want a Novice Chase runner that isnt too exposed and if that happens then the winner will come from one of these -CATHEDRAL ROCK - STAGECOACH OPAL - BENGO


If I had to pick one in the Juvenile Hurdle at 3.20 it would be LIGHT YIELD each Way as his experience
stands him in good stead against shorter priced under-raced rivals

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TAUNTON


This meeting starts with a 17f CLAIMING HURDLE at 1.50pm

6/4 White On Black, 2/1 Celtic Son, 9/2 Share My Dream, 12/1 Monsieur Villez, 33/1 King´s Spear, Proud Peer, 50/1 Timynomates, 66/1 Gotontheluckyone, Sparkbridge, 100/1 Count The Trees, Neat ´n Tidy.

There has not been any of these races run before for well over a Decade at this trip. Its not a great race statistically. All I would say is that CELTIC SON has the issue of coming from a Chase. I looked at all these races at other trips and although not ideal doing that the record of horses that came from fences was understandably poor. I wouldnt want a Chaser in this race and I would be against him much as I cant give you accurate data to support that. I think WHITE ON BLACK is a better bet than CELTIC ARMS. I think if you fancy WHITE ON BLACK you should consider the each way double. I didnt think that WHITE ON BLACK was the greatest value much as he is the most likely winner. I felt that the mare SHARE MY DREAM was statistically fine and probably the value in the race. She isnt out of this and when you consider SHARE MY DREAM is 5/1 you can argue she should be the pick. I cant know what it takes to win these races as these races are never run anymore. No selections but any thoughts I have on the race are above.

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TAUNTON 2:20 - SOMERSET LOCAL MEDICAL COMMITTEE MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

5/4 Pierrot Lunaire, 3/1 Seven Is My Number, 100/30 Diamant Rose, 14/1 Hernando Royal, 25/1 Master Wells, Penny Island, Tintinhull, 40/1 Freddy´s Star, Power Again, 66/1 Norisan, Pine Conquest, 100/1 Chilbury Hill, 200/1 Tyrana.

* This is a 17f Maiden Hurdle
* Taunton has had 26 of these races
* There has been 39 at other tracks
* Bumper horses with under 4 starts have a 0-56 record
* VILCABAMBA (Non runner) TINTINHULL - FREDDYS STAR are rejected as Bumper horses
* Hard to see any big priced horses having a say
* DIAMANT ROSE is an unraced Phillip Hobbs 4 year old
* Unraced four year olds are 3-40 in these races so they can win
* Phillip Hobbs lost with all 17 horses aged 4 he ran in Maiden Hurdle in Febuary (0-17)
* He may win but I would be against DIAMANT ROSE and he is weak in the betting
* PIERROT LUNAIRE is a once raced 4 year old coming from a 4yo hurdle
* Cant make him a negative as 14 horses tried what he is trying and 2 won
* Wouldnt be my favourite profile but as 2 winners had his profile I am "Neutral" on him
* I would be on SEVEN IS MY NUMBER here from the Pipes
* Martin Pipe and David Pipe have milked the 26 Taunton renewals
* They have a 8-27 record. They have won 8 of the 26 races at Taunton in Febuary at 17f
* SEVEN IS MY NUMBER was pitched into Graded bumpers first time out
* At one stage he was favourite for the Cheltenham Bumper before dissapointing
* Significant David Johnson still owns him
* He ran over hurdles last time and that was a credible 4th
* Consider that day he was a Bumper horse going up to 19f over hurdles - a tough task statistically
* I feel SEVEN IS MY NUMBER was the interesting horse here because of the stable record
* 3/1 each way made most appeal to me

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TAUNTON 3:20 - KINGSTON VETERINARY GROUP BEGINNERS' CHASE (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 2m7f110y

10/11 Leading Attraction, 9/2 Marcus, 5/1 Karanja, 15/2 Franco, 12/1 Mith Hill, 25/1 Alderman Rose, 40/1 Convincing Grey, 50/1 Bright Green, 66/1 The Langer, 100/1 Kirbys Glen, Minella Lodge, Spitfire Bob, The Whispering Oak.

* This is a 2m 7.5f Beginners Chase
* There has been 583 of these races between January and March between 23f and 25f
* Statistically its fascinating and all about LEADING ATTRACTION
* The case for LEADING ATTRACTION is strong
* Trained by the Champion trainer. Highly regarded. Has a Sun Alliance entry
* Reported to be working with the High Class Noland
* The case against him is strong
* He has had 1 race in a Novice Hurdle and now faces fences over a long trip
* Look at the 583 races. ONLY 11 winnes came from a Novice Hurdle
* Horses like LEADING ATTRACTION that had under 4 runs had a 1-124 record
* All 39 horses with 1 race like LEADING ATTRACTION lost
* I spread the sample size and looked everywhere
* I looked at all Novice/Beginners Chases that had been run before over 2m 7f or more
* Thats anytime and anyplace and there were thousands of these races
* I looked for horses with 1 race that came from a Novice Hurdle
* The record was 0-100. There has not been a horse manage it yet
* LEADING ATTRACTION is trying to do something no horse has managed before
* It will be fascinating to see if he can become the first horse to win a race like this
* The real issue will be down to what level of opposition he faces
* Statistically MARCUS was pretty solid and has a good chance
* I felt KARANJA and FRANCO were "acceptable" statistically without having the odd doubt
* Statistically I have to oppose LEADING ATTRACTION

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TAUNTON 3:50 - S.I.S. HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-110) 2m3f110y

5/2 Sandymac, 7/2 Saratogane, 4/1 Imperial Harry, 10/1 Double Header, Wild Tonto, 12/1 Devils River, Hidden Weapon, 16/1 The Composer, 25/1 Killing Me Softly, 33/1 Dalaram, Kinetic Power, 40/1 Opal Ridge.

* This is a 2m 3.5f Handicap Hurdle
* Taunton has had 14 renewals of this race
* There has been 98 other races in Febuary at other tracks
* There are some strong trends emerging in the 14 renewals
* High weights have really struggled
* Horses that had 11st 6lbs or more had a miserable 1-48 record
* You can allow a couple of pounds either way but this is a lightweights race
* All 32 horses that came from a 2 mile race Lost as well
* You dont want a horse coming from a Chase as all 16 lost
* You want either a lightly raced horse or an experienced one
* Horses with between 9 and 20 runs had a weak 1-64 record after 14 renewals
* Apply those trends religiously and you find the following pair stand out
* IMPERIAL HARRY - SANDYMAC
* I am strongly against THE COMPOSER
* His one race this year makes no appeal and I dont think he will stay by Royal Applause
* HIDDEN WEAPON has a crippling weight in a lightweights race
* He is also a very old age (11) to be coming from a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at every handicap hurdle between November and April
* No horse that aged won coming from a Novice Hurdle
* Horses aged 11 at the bottom of the weights struggle in 98 similar races
* They are 0-48 when under 11st 5lbs and OPAL POWER fails that
* Martin Pipe runs SARATOGANE and IMPERIAL HARRY
* I dont fancy SARATOGANE
* She is a Mare with a 185 day absence and all Mares absent 4 + months were 0-51
* She hasnt shown much in handicap hurdles and she fails vital trends in this race
* Not least the weight trends and I feel her stablemate is a better proposition
* DALARAM - KINETIC POWER look badly out of sorts
* I dont want DEVILS RIVER as the only runner coming from a 16f race
* All 32 horses that did that in this race lost
* KILLING ME SOFTLY comes from a Chase where he fell early
* That really means he has had only 1 run this year and thats not enough
* I cant have DOUBLE HEADER for several reasons not least he has been badly out of form
* His sires runners deteriorate when older so I wonder if he is regressive
* He is also a 9yo dropping from 3 miles. Horses aged 9 that did that were 1-58
* He also fails weight stats and other stats in this Taunton race
* SANDYMAC has a decent chance but as a Mare the 48 day absence troubles me
* IMPERIAL HARRY has the best profile for me
* Trained by Vinnie Smith and had some tough tasks in Novice races
* Looked to be "handicapped" nicely over hurdles and now David Pipe trains him
* He looked to be improving before the massive upgrade in stable
* I think IMPERIAL HARRY stands out and will win this
* There has been good money for WILD TONTO and I Feel this is a good saver
* I cant fault him statistically unlike every other rival to the favourite

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S O U T H W E L L


Only a couple of races caught my interest at Southwell

5/2 Dickie Le Davoir, 9/2 Pegasus Dancer, 6/1 Came Back, Owed, 8/1 Ocean Pride, 9/1 Cleveland, 12/1 Nautical, 14/1 Monashee Brave, 16/1 Totally Free.

I didnt want PEGASUS DANCER as he has no track form and because he comes from a 5f race. In terms of the 5f runners PEGASUS DANCER - CLEVELAND and TOTALLY FREE these are Not statistically too bad in this race
as they are all Male with experience and a recent run and its quite concievable that one wins. If one does win they dont break any trends of note its just I "prefer" to have a horse that doesnt step up in trip. Looking for a potential selection I did not want OWED whose just had 2 runs since last May. I felt OCEAN PRIDE was a big price at 16/1 or more. He has to come down from 9f which is a radical step down in trip. That hasnt been done at Southwell but only 4 tried and failed and it has been done at other sand tracks. I cant claim that OCEAN PRIDE has a rock solid profile but I dont think he is out oft his and see him as value. I felt CAME BACK had a massive chance and should make any shortlist. I also felt DICKIE LE DAVOIR had a strong chance at least
on paper much as I dont like it when they race for a new stable for the very first time. In terms of a selection I would probably either side with OCEAN PRIDE at 16/1 as a likely "value" option thats got no more than a small chance or CAME BACK at 6/1 who looks to have a strong form chance. Felt it was open though. Felt there was some strength in depth in the race and it was not the sort of race I would upgrade a selection to the top of the message.

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SOUTHWELL 2:30 -MAD FOR IT AT PONTIN'S HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-65) 2m

5/2 Mujamead, 11/4 Chiff Chaff, 5/1 Squiffy, 6/1 Salut Saint Cloud, 7/1 El Dee, 20/1 Pochard, Salawat, Sovietta, 25/1 Aston, Good Cause.

* This is a 2m Handicap for horses rated 0-65
* Wouldnt rule SQUIFFY out but he has ran only once in 80 days and I feel he is a bit underraced
* That said he has been well backed in the offices and appears fancied
* I felt CHIFF CHAFF was fine statistically but wasnt convinced after 2 runs here that She likes the track
* She probably does but I just would rather have seen some better track form for her
* My strike against MUJAMEAD is that he comes from a 0-45 Classified race
* There were 81 of these handicaps and all 19 horses that came from 0-45 races lost
* Didnt like the fillies SALAWAT or SOVIETTA or the outsiders
* I have no problems with SALUT SAINT CLOUD whose been well backed
* I have found older horses that have gone up in trip as he attempts and he has back class
* I have no problem with EL DEE at 12/1 either and go with him e/w as a small suggestion

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SOUTHWELL 3:00 - CAPTAIN CROC MAKES PONTIN'S HOLIDAYS ROCK SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo) 7f

10/11 Copperbottomed, 5/2 Cherished Song, 6/1 Lechero, 10/1 Whistful Miss, 14/1 Novestar.

* This is a 3yo seller over 7f
* Southwell has had 61 of these races
* Favourites like COPPERBOTTOMED have a superb record in these 61 races
* They won 27 of the 61 races with a 43% strike rate
* When they step up from 6f they have a 9-17 record and that doesnt worry me
* When the favourite has had a recent run within a fortnight and when experienced they are even better
* Stats around "Favs" are for Amateurs in my view but I have to come to the single conclusion
* That is that COPPERBOTTOMED should win this race. I feel his dangers have problems
* I dont want LECHERO for a few reasons not least just 4 runs
* There has been winners of these races with 4 or fewer runs but they were not like him
* Horses with under 5 runs that dropped in trip only had a weak 1-49 record
* Horses with under 5 runs that ran within the previous fortnight had a 1-48 record
* You can also argue his sires record shows Southwell as the weakest sand course
* I didnt like CHERSIHED SONG at all
* She has ran only once since October
* She has had only 4 runs and Fillies with between 1 and 4 runs had a weak 2-86 record
* Both fillies that did it had ran in a higher grade than she has and both ran better than she did last time
* If you look at the fillies that won when lightly raced as she is none met her profile
* None dropped in trip as she does (0-24) and None came from sellers as she does (0-23)
* These trends are repeated and reinforced on all sand tracks at all times of year
* I dont see anything in NOVESTAR's form to challenge the favourite
* I will be very surprised if COPPERBOTTOMED doesnt win this race

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SOUTHWELL 3:30 - GO ACTIVE @ PONTIN'S HOLIDAY CENTRES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 7f

5/4 Dudley Docker, 7/2 Obe Royal, 9/2 Yakimov, 7/1 High ´n Dry, Kelamon.

* This is a 7f Handicap
* Southwell has had 83 similar races
* We have 5 runners - I dont like 4 of these
* This leaves DUDLEY DOCKER as the selection
* Not a great price at 10/11 and no prized for originality
* He is however fine statistically yet takes on horses that are not
* OBE ROYAL is a 4 year old coming from a 6f race and horses doing that were just 2-89
* None were claimer ridden as he is and the 6f horses that overcame the trip jump were different
* Horses that come from 6f races that had under 8st 11lbs had a weak 2-124 record
* YAKIMOV Comes from an 11f race and drops into a 7f race
* In all 7f handicaps no horse dropped from 10f never mind 11f
* He is also a 9 year old with a 51 day break and no horse that old defied that absence
* HIGH 'N' DRY is a filly absent 59 days
* Fillies absent over a Month had a 1-57 record and no filly came from a claimer as she does
* KELAMON has a 100 day break and few horses defied that and none were lightweights
* Overall this leaves DUDLEY DOCKER as by far the most likely winner.

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