Tuesday March 11th

No Account Bet

I am going to start the meeting off without an account bet. I would like to see how the ground rides and whilst there is no official bet I will be busy in every race. Unprofessional as it sounds I will be betting in each race. There are 6 selections below.

My strongest bet will be in the 5.20 where I intend to bet RIVER LIANE at 4/1 and save on ASHKAZAR at 5/2 and I cant see one of these not winning. This is my strongest bet today

I am also quite keen on NEW ALCO at 14/1 in the William Hill Trophy (4pm) and have backed him. I will have interest bets in all the other races and I have written these in the next paragraph and they are in order of strength with my bigger bets at the top and my weaker
selections at the bottom. It looks to me like Wednesday may be my busiest day at this stage

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Todays Selections

Strongest Bet at the Top

Cheltenham 5.20 - RIVER LIANE 4/1 - saver on ASHKAZAR 5/2
Cheltenham 4.00 - NEW ALCO 14/1
Cheltenham 2.35 - TIDAL BAY 7/1 (Win) - saver on NOLAND
Cheltenham 3.15 - OSANA (Win) and SIZING EUROPE (Saver)
Cheltenham 2.00 - BINOCULAR 8/1 - saver on PIGEON ISLAND
Cheltenham 4.40 - HEADS ON THE GROUND Each Way

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Q U A D P O T

Going to try and crack the Quadpot this week. The Bet revolves around getting a horse placed in the last 4 races on the card. You can have the bet on Betfair on their new "Tote" markets. Today doesnt look the hardest Quadpot to get up so a small perm is needed. I dont feel I have
many options to stray away from the obvious today so it may not pay that well if succesful

Cheltenham 3.15 - OSANA
Cheltenham 4.00 - NEW ALCO - PATSY HALL
Cheltenham 4.40 - HEADS ON THE GROUND - GARDE CHAMPETRE
Cheltenham 5.20 - ASHKAZAR

4 perms

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CHELTENHAM 2:00 - ANGLO IRISH SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (4yo+) 2m110y

7/1 Captain Cee Bee, Khyber Kim, 15/2 Muirhead, 8/1 Binocular, Rippling Ring, 9/1 Cork All Star, 10/1 Pigeon Island, Sentry Duty, 14/1 Deep Purple, Snap Tie, 18/1 Pasco, 22/1 Numide, 25/1 Blue Bajan, 28/1 Sophocles, 33/1 Kalahari King, Norther Bay, Quartano, Zebra Crossing, 40/1 Calgary Bay, Tranquil Sea, 50/1 Striking Article, The Gloves Are Off, 66/1 Lemon Silk.

* The Supreme Novice Hurdle looks wide open this year
* Its very complicated - and my conclusion differs from the statistical picks
* I feel the winner might be statistically imperfect
* There are 23 runners and 11 of these are outsiders with seeminly little chance
* Should be able to reduce the field of 12 possible winners down with a few negatives
* I want to Avoid RIPPLING RING as a 5 year old with only 1 race before
* No past winner did that since 1991 and he is the obvious negative for me
* Between January and April there has been 59 Listed and Graded Hudles under 2m 2f
* Thats 59 races and English horses that had 1 run had a 0-60 record
* This is why I am against RIPPLING RING
* In this race British horses with 1 career start had a 0-24 record
* Only 1 placed (Dreams End was 3rd in 1994 with 1 run)
* Despite confident soundings from the stable I am against him
* SENTRY DUTY is out with 1 run this year
* In the 59 similar races horses with 1 run this year are 1-74
* I dont want any handicappers like BLUE BAJAN as they score very badly
* I doubt the Champion Novice will wear Cheekpieces like NUMIDE
* As the rain has come I want a bit of experience and ideally more than 1 run this season
* MUIRHEAD has the strongest statistical profile as he is unbeaten
* He has to be shortlisted but I would be worried about his size
* MUIRHEAD is described as a "small framed horse" and that puts me off
* The trainer has also been negative about his preparation and he isnt for me
* CORK ALL STAR has lost his last 3 races
* Is a Supreme Novice winner likely to have failed to win for 3 races ?
* CORK ALL STAR looks to have the rain against him as well
* DEEP PURPLE is not the best age and lost last time out
* The Rain is also against him and I dont see him winning
* CAPTAIN CEE BEE is the wrong age but I can forgive him that
* I dont like the fact he has missed several prep races down to the ground
* Dont like the fact his trainer is very inexperienced
* I also worry that he wants better ground according to connection
* Those factors and his 115 day absence really puts me off
* KHYBER KIM has ran just twice and that worries me
* Its no use pretending KHYBER KIM has a perfect profile as he doesn't
* Just two runs and coming here after a Flop - He may bounce back but its a risk
* If you take 3 solid trends that work out most years you can get the best statistical runners
* PASCO comes out very well statistically but he is not his stables first string and may need 20f
* I dont want SNAP TIE as he has lost his last 2 races and thats not Supreme Form


SHORTLIST

BINOCULAR - PIGEON ISLAND - TRANQUIL SEA

I am far from convinced this hideously tough renewal can be left to the statistics. I think you may well see a Statistically questionable winner. It strikes me that many here have problems on the ground if it is soft. Many have had interrupted preperations. Many lack the experience
you would want on the ground. There are other horses that lack the frame you would want of a Supreme Novice winner. What I think the best thing to do here is to take two horses that "Might" just have a big edge over the field. They all seem much of a muchness to me having spent all year either beating each other or getting beat. If there is "One"Supreme Hurdler that stands out amongst the field then I can not see who it is. Therefore I am going with 2 horses that Might just have a significant advantage. These are BINOCULAR and PIGEON ISLAND. With BINOCULAR it may well be that the allowance a 4 year old gets is enough to win this. Four year olds are hard to judge mainly because not many have ran in this race in recent years.
However since 1946 there has been 13 winners aged 4 in this race and although I have no idea what the conditions of those races were like we did see a recent 4 year old win (1999) and two came second (1993 and 1994). Maybe the allowance BINOCULAR gets will be important and I feel you need some tangible advantage to lift a horse out of the Fog in this race which must be the most open Supreme Novice's I can remember. PIGEON ISLAND is my second choice. Yes he is Overexposed but no horse so exposed have tried to win this race and he is a completely different kettle of fish to almost anything thats ran in this race before. He has had 23 races and thats something I doubt has been done for decades. Its futile to argue against him statistically in my view and his recent form has been top class. He is rated 138 but so was the 2006 winner
(Noland) before winning this and other past winners were rated less before winning. I do have some reservations about the fact he does make me think this may not be his best track but thats arguable and at level weights he is meeting a lot of horses that have achieved far less than he has. I am taking the two horses that "MAY" well have an edge in this race for one reason or another
and these are BINOCULAR and PIGEON ISLAND

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CHELTENHAM 2:35 - IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (5yo+) 2m

2/1 Noland, 7/1 Tidal Bay, 8/1 Mahogany Blaze, 9/1 Clopf, 10/1 Ring The Boss, Thyne Again, 11/1 Leslingtaylor, 12/1 Moon Over Miami, 16/1 French Accordion, Kruguyrova, 20/1 Scotsirish, 25/1 Marodima, 40/1 Enlightenment, 100/1 Gardasee, Orpen Wide, Tramantano, 500/1 Premiership.

When I first looked at the race I felt NOLAND had a worrying preperation and felt he was a favourite to oppose
but when next looking at the race and understanding what a bad renewal this looks I felt the sensible thing to do
was make sure that if NOLAND won I couldnt lose money on the race. My concerns with NOLAND is down to having only 2 chase runs and having not jumped a fence before January 21st. There is no doubt that the past winners of this race did not have profiles like NOLAND. That said there are a lot of horses in this race equally short on runs and the opposition demands I rethink any ideas about opposing him. You also have the fact that he has had training setbacks and has been on the sicklist even only shortly. He does not come risk free. Whilst he has flaws his rivals are so average on the whole that they may not be capable of beating him despite his failings. I like NOLAND as a "saver" in this race. CLOPF has ran twice over fences and fell at the last in one race and I dont see why I should have him ahead of the favourite. I think the main redeeming factor for CLOPF is that he is a big price and whilst thats no small thing I cant make a strong enough case for him on the back of a Fall. RING THE BOSS has had just 1 chase start and got beaten in that so he cant really have a better profile than the favourite and I would be keen to oppose him. Irish raider FRENCH ACCORDION is far too exposed to win an Arkle as an 8 year old with 11 chase starts. You have to go back to 1989 for the last winner to have 6 or more runs over fences. SCOTSIRISH
also fails that and having won just 1 of his 6 chase starts is he really good enough when almost all past winners had significantly better win and place records. I cant make the case for KRUGUYROVA. Firstly she is a Mare. Secondly she is not a big horse and has all her form on sharp tracks. This track must be a massive doubt for her. You can argue the track is a big doubt for LESLINGTAYLOR whose best form comes on flat tracks and who Fell on his only run at this stiff track and he would be a rare Northern Trained winner of he won. Both of MOON OVER MIAMI and THYNE AGAIN have chances but neither fit the pattern of past winners in that too many of their chase starts were 3rd or worse. MOON OVER MIAMI seems to have problems and needs to be either Fresh or have other factors in
his favour as he has bled and has got over excited before. THYNE AGAIN has a rushed preperation and whilst I cant
rule either out neither are statistically solid. I Feel I can only consider 3 runners in this race and these are NOLAND - TIDAL BAY - MAHOGANY BLAZE

CONCLUSION

TIDAL BAY has a profile that makes him the "strongest statistical runner" . The biggest strikes against him are
the stableform and his jumping which has been questionable on occasions. I think MAHOGANY BLAZE came out well and although his last run (3rd) just stops him being statistically perfect the fact it was against horses that
dominate the Champion Chase betting its very forgiveable. NOLAND for me has to be a "saver". Too many doubts
about his profile to Lump on at a short price but the opposition is not good and I am determined not to leave the race losing money if he wins. I am going with TIDAL BAY because he is 3 times the price of the favourite and has more experience and best fits the profile of past winners. Plenty to worry about but at the prices he gets my vote

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CHELTENHAM 3:15 - SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (4yo+) 2m110y

2/1 Sizing Europe, 9/2 Sublimity, 5/1 Osana, 13/2 Harchibald, 9/1 Katchit, 14/1 Catch Me, 20/1 Straw Bear, 25/1 Afsoun, 28/1 Ebaziyan, Punjabi, 33/1 Blythe Knight, 50/1 Bobs Pride, Farmer Brown, 66/1 Kalderon, 100/1 Kawagino, Salford City, 500/1 Contraband.

When SUBLIMITY won last year he was a stat buster in being so inexperienced and without an ideal preparation
this year he just doesnt appeal to me. The renewal he won last year was a Joke and awful form and whilst he is
technically a Champion and may be far better than I realise I just can not have him myself. I think there are lots of horses in the race that you can argue for and against and you have to be right to find the winner. Each Horse has a dilemma or two. I dont want the 5 year olds KATCHIT or PUNJABI myself. I think STRAW BEAR who I went
with last year would have to run a career best and I dont feel he will do that with the rain in the ground. One of the most fascinating horses to run this week is HARCHIBALD . Many people are saying He is the perfect horse to bet and lay in running at shorter odds and thats a strategy I think makes a lot of sense . I dont know if he will get up the hill or how genuine he is. He didnt on two of his 3 races here but he has won a Bula Hurdle at this track and it would not surprise me if he was ridden closer to the pace this year. I find him a very hard horse to judge. I suppose that from all runners in this race I would have HARCHIBALD as the "3rd" most likely winner but in saying that I want to show that if anything I have underestimated how serious a chance he has and he would be far more closer to being either my 1st or 2nd choice than my 4h or worst. Massive Chance and I do fancy him in this but I fancy two others strongly as well. I just feel that the way the race is going to be run I wouldnt be certain HARCHIBALD will fight past the likes of OSANA and the favourite. I dont see EBAZIYAN being good enough . I have CATCH ME and AFSOUN both as statistically perfect and I cant fault either on the trends but its hard to imagine they have enough ability to win. I would far rather have CATCH ME then AFSOUN and whilst CATCH ME has been well backed yesterday and probably was a bit of value at a big price I am not sure he is now despite Ruby Walsh riding. I have been of the view that this race was down to OSANA and SIZING EUROPE and I still feel like that. Its very hard to know whether favourite SIZING EUROPE is as solid a choice as he needs to be. He could be one of those horses that has been overrated and fools many that are in his Camp as I am yet he could also be the real deal and come back next year and win it again. He has to be on my staking plan and I also love OSANA who could well try and make all and may well take a lot of catching. I feel the best bet has to be a win bet on OSANA and a saver on SIZING EUROPE. I feel one of these will win.

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CHELTENHAM 4:00 - WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/2 An Accordion, 9/1 Ofarel D´Airy, Patsy Hall, 10/1 Abragante, Fundamentalist, L´Ami, Monkerhostin, 11/1 King Harald, 12/1 New Alco, 16/1 Mon Mome, 20/1 Bob Hall, Ponmeoath, 25/1 Flying Enterprise, Ollie Magern, 33/1 Lankawi.

* I Fancy NEW ALCO at 14/1
* OLLIE MAGERN is out as topweight and the only horse up from 2m 4f
* I dont fancy FLYING ENTERPRISE out of the handicap
* LANKAWI looks outclassed and is only a 6 year old
* BOB HALL looks a possible non stayer and has never been anywhere near this distance
* KING HARALD comes here in form winning a Class 2 handicap last time
* He is up in class and in the weights though and this will be a lot harder
* I looked at Horses that came from Class 2 handicap chases like him
* Horses that placed or won last time out in a C2 Handicap had a 0-27 record
* They also had a poor 1-32 record in the Kim Muir later in the week over the same C+D
* The 0-27 record of horses placed in Class 2 handicaps includes 6 beaten favourites
* I suspect that whilst in form and on a roll they get outclassed in this race
* KING HARALD - FUNDAMENTALIST both fail that
* FUNDAMENTALIST is a previous festival winner but does he really stay ?
* Surely 2m 5f is his best trip and he has very little form at this trip
* I feel he will struggle to get home today and his handicap mark may be too high
* Statistically I dont want exposed horses that have ran just once or twice this season
* MON MOME and PATSY HALL both fail that
* So to does MONKEHOSTIN whose also an 11 year old which isnt ideal
* MONKEHOSTIN also has a tough weight to carry in this race
* MON MONE - OFAREL D´AIRY - PONMEOATH all come from Hurdles
* Cant see why it should be a problem but statistically it is
* March has seen 70 handicaps between 2m 7f and 3m 4f in Class 2 -A-Grade 3.
* Only 1 came via Hurdles and they have a 3% record
* The Last 17 winners of this race had the following runs over chases
* 17 9 19 9 11 17 10 10 29 8 10 15 14 17 17 29 16 chase starts
* Since 1988 the least experienced winner had 8 previous chase starts
* There are 3 runners in this race that do not have 8 or more chase starts
* AN ACCORDION has ran only 6 times over fences
* OFAREL D'AIRY has ran only 7 times over fences
* ABRAGANTE has ran only 7 times over fences
* Difficult to know how ruthlessly to apply this statistic
* OFAREL D'AIRY is a 6 year old and only 1 recent winner was that age
* AN ACCORDION is full of potential but does have jumping issues
* He is also quite short considering he would be the least experienced winner in decades
* He won well last time but has been raised 11lbs and has a bit to prove
* L'AMI is pretty hard to judge
* Is he regressive ? Is he being laid out for the National ? How "In form" is he ?
* I cant rule him out statistically and you have to give him a chance
* NEW ALCO interests me a lot at 14/1
* He was 7/1 favourite for this race last year and was only beaten 10 lengths
* He was only a 6 year old then and now he is a far better age
* He also has 4lbs less weight this year
* I like horses aged 6 that fail and come back to run in this race
* Kelami was beaten in this race in 2004 as a 6 year old and won it aged 7 in 2005
* Thats exactly what NEW ALCO attempts to do today
* He is not too exposed yet has more than enough experience
* He likes the track and thats important
* He comes here after a break but so did 3 of the last 5 winners
* His stable also won the race last year
* Ladbrokes have ducked him at 9/1 as well

CONCLUSION

I am happy with NEW ALCO 14/1 as my selection and I have had a small win bet on him. Not quite sure which I would argue are my biggest dangers to be honest. Mon Mome always seems to run better than I think. Patsy Hall has to be dangerous and isnt too bad statistically. The David Pipe
runners An Accordion and Abragante are almost statistically perfect. One of those races where I have found it easier to come up with a selection than I have a shortlist.

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CHELTENHAM 4:40 - BGC HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f

5/2 Wonderkid, 5/1 Garde Champetre, Heads Onthe Ground, 12/1 Le Duc, 14/1 Freneys Well, Royal Auclair, 16/1 Casadei, Florida Dream, Ivoire De Beaulieu, 18/1 Never Compromise, 20/1 Kilbeggan Blade, 25/1 A New Story, 33/1 Bosham Mill, Harrycone Lewis, Native Jack, 50/1 Mange Tout.

The Ground is crucial here. If it looks good or Fast then WONDERKID will probably win but I feel there is a genuine
doubt about just how soft or how good the ground is. Assuming the ground is looking soft then I think I would oppose WONDERKID with something each way. The best statistic for cross country races doesnt apply in this race and you have to seperate the fact that this is a handicap and only a third of these Cheltenham Cross country races have been handicaps. I think the fact WONDERKID comes from 2m 4f is a small problem. I also feel that the fact he comes from Hurdles is at best not an advantage. The other factor that makes me want to oppose him is the ground. He is not bred from a mudlark. He has only ever won on fast ground and his trainer is on record several times saying that he is a "low actioned horse" that "likes fast ground". I would be happy to oppose him because of these 3 factors. As ever in these races there are few that can win. Last years winner HEADS ONTHE GROUND may be the bet. He won this last year and although a lot higher in the weights this year he won easily and has improved. He was behind WONDERKID at Cheltenham in December but has a nice pull at the weights and the ground suited WONDERKID that day. On soft ground I would be far more confident that HEADS ONTHE GROUND can repeat last years win. I think there is a case to say GARDE CHAMPETRE may not be a Cheltenham horse as he has never ran well here in 4 starts albeit with a small sample size to go on. LE DUC has a chance but overall HEADS ONTHE GROUND each way looks the best bet.

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CHELTENHAM 5:20 - FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (4yo) 2m110y

5/2 Ashkazar, 4/1 River Liane, 8/1 Crack Away Jack, Grand Schlem, 9/1 Chapoturgeon, 10/1 Prince Erik, 11/1 Harry Tricker, 12/1 Metaphoric, 20/1 Mamlook, Siege Of Ennis, Squadron, 25/1 Indian Spring, Zanir, 28/1 Callisto Moon, Western Point, 33/1 Bayonyx, Chord, Hypnotic Vibes, Silmi, Sivota, Thousand Stars, 40/1 Sainte Kadette, 50/1 Dal Cais, Mr Crystal.

* This is a 4 year old Novice Handicap Hurdle
* Its one of the races of the festival for me
* Statistically its not good as there has been 3 renewals only and no similar races elsewhere
* Whilst it looks a minefield there are only 7 runners under 30/1 in the Market
* The race looks to me like a match between the Market Leaders
* RIVER LIANE and ASHKAZAR stand out
* RIVER LIANE looked to be one of the best e/w bets of the week when winning recently
* Then ASHKAZAR came and won the Imperial Cup in impressive style
* ASHKAZAR attempts to land the £75k bonus offered for winning on Saturday and here
* His stablemate Gaspara landed that bonus last year when winning this
* Has to be remembered that Gaspara carried 15lbs less weight last year
* It wont be easy for ASHKAZAR to lump 11st 12lbs in this race or concede weight to River Liane
* RIVER LIANE was very impressive and gets 11lbs weight from the Pipe horse
* That said ASHKAZAR has just won a better race against older horses only 3 days ago
* At the prices I see 3 good options
* RIVER LIANE each way around 4/1 looks a very hard bet to get beaten
* Equally I dont see ASHKAZAR cant be seen as a good each way bet even at 5/2
* Dont forget there are 4 places - its a quarter the odds and 16 of the 24 runners are 40/1 +
* Alternately RIVER LIANE as a win bet and ASHKAZAR as a saver also looks good
* I am betting RIVER LIANE at 4/1 and saving on ASHKAZAR

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