Monday November 17th

No Account Bet

No Selections Today

Keep your powder dry today other than a few small
interest bets. I think there is a good chance of a bet
tomorrow and plan to be at my strongest tomorrow.
Today is pretty mundane. I am in no hurry at the
moment. Its no more than a standard Monday opening
gambit for the week and I want to keep the selections
clear again today. I do expect something tomorrow.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

Sunday's message was more of a Cheltenham amble with no selections on the day. Overall we got one winner at 5/1 on a quiet day and that was probably enough to break level on the day however you staked.

I Badly need a day off. I think I have to play it like this. Standard Monday message today. Then on Tuesday there is a decent chance of a Bet and it should be a strong message tomorrow and because of this I have to suspend the usual early week day off. I am going to take Wednesday off this week. Then it's normal business for the rest
of the week. On Saturday there is a massive pot in the Scoop 6 and a carried forward pool. There is some discussion on the message board about a syndicate so if anyone fancies having a go all the issues and details can be found on the board.


L E I C E S T E R

I didnt want to commit to Leicester today in the absence of any sparkling revelations. Just a few quick comments. I quite like the opening race. The way I see it I can take out the rank outsiders. I should take out all the horses that step up from 2 miles to this extended 20f as in the 12 previous renewals all 30 horses that tried to do that failed and as these are Mares I would be against them. Therefore PARLESOTHO is out and she also comes from a
Novice Hurdle. CROUCH END FLYER also fails that. So to does SHIPBOARD ROMANCE who I doubt will stay anyway and who should not win as a 3yo. SERENGETI SUNSET also fails that as does HEARTY DOVE and RINNWOD LASS. No horse came from maiden hurdles with such a poor profile and with huge defeats like FOXRIVER. This leaves 4 horses that look more interesting than then others in this race.

HELLO MY LOVELY - VILLOCHELY - PRIDE OF MINE - NEARLY A BREEZE

I prefer these in the order I have written them. NEARLY A BREEZE only won a seller and has some time off the track and I have always liked younger horses in these races . VILLOCHELY is a possible option as is PRIDE OF MINE. However there has been money for the 20/1 chance HELLO MY LOVELY. I looked at horses like her in the 13 renewals.
Looked at seasonal debutants with 7 or more runs that drop in distance for their first run of the year. I looked at those coming from handicaps without a win as she has and found a 3-7 record. That tempts me to follow the money in this race and side with HELLO MY LOVELY.

That was the onlyrace I liked at Leicester and I am staying with Wolves for the other business today. I do think this race is worth a small interest
though.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON



WOLVERHAMPTON 2.00

4/1 Faraway Sound, 7/1 Readily, Tartan Turban, 9/1 Turn To Dreams, 10/1 Jubilee Juggins, Lupe Lamora, 12/1 Adozen Dreams, Deckchair, Imperial Skylight, Officer Mor, 16/1 Autumn Morning.

The 2.00pm race at Wolverhampton is a nasty little juvenile claimer with a packed field of tightly knit horses and I didnt see any clear way into the race. I would oppose FARAWAY SOUND as all similar races show horses with 7 weeks absence and more than 6 runs struggle to overcome that absence. I would also have opposed the fillies from 5f races who struggle so I am against ADOZEN DREAMS, LUPE LAMORA and AUTUMN MORNING. I wouldnt want to bet IMPERIAL SKYLIGHT up in trip or DECKCHAIR down in trip. This still leaves a shortlist thats too big and I have always felt this is a race thats harder than
ideal to sort. Forced for a selection I'd have gone with the recent form of READILY but would have done so knowing I cant rule out half a dozen horses that make it a dangerous race.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.30

3/1 Madame Hoi, 7/2 Absa Lutte, 11/2 Laureldean Dream,
8/1 Cabopino, 9/1 Shakedown, 10/1 Japura, 12/1 Pentandra,
Welsh Opera, 16/1 Kilvickeon, 25/1 In With A Shout, 50/1
Foolish Optimist, Prix Masque.

Wolves then has a all aged maiden at 2.30pm. This is a horrible little maiden just short of 6f thrown together with problem horses and many runners you cant sort such as big stable flops with long absences and Irish older handicappers. Just a mess really and there are not enough
similar races at this time of year to be confident you know which way to procede. The angles for what they are worth in these races show I shouldnt trust Fllies with absences as these runners have a 1-50 record so LAURELDEAN DREAM and CABOPINO are rejected. No older horse was inexperienced and I wouldnt want JAPURA after all his
problems and as he was sold cheaply. MADAME HOI leaves me cold as a filly from 5f with a 0-13 career record but I have found a winner of a simiar maiden like that and cant rule her out. ABSA LUTTE is a 5 year old mare that comes from Irish Handicaps and thats impossible to get a handle on. ABSA LUTTE wouldnt interest me with a 0-20 record. Arguably the most normal choice is SHAKEDOWN who is at
least typical of horses that tend to run in these races. I think its a race to "Follow the money" as I dont see a profile I am drawn to or like.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.00

9/2 Blue Charm, 5/1 Cap St Jean, 11/2 Prince Tum Tum,
13/2 Climate, Mrs Jefferson, 7/1 Lytton, 8/1 Forced Upon Us, 14/1 Just Jimmy, Samurai Warrior, 16/1 El Fuser, 25/1 Mexilhoeira, 50/1 Lucky Forteen.

SELECTION - BLUE CHARM

The 3pm at Wolves is a selling race. There have been about 44 of these races around this time of year. I think its easy to rule out those lacking experience like Mexilhoeira and Lucky Forteen. I would not want to bet MRS JEFFERSON as a 3yo filly thats run fewer times than any similar
winner. I would oppose PRINCE TUM TUM as an older horse with no racing in a very long time. CLIMATE and CAP ST JEAN are clearly the quality of horses that win these races regularly but both these do have issues for me. I certainly dont want CLIMATE with 1 run since June
especialy as he is a 9 year old and down in trip. CAP ST JEAN has the better chance of the pair but as a filly with just 1 run in 3 months I would be very sceptical about her and throw in a weak jockey and I dont see either of these as horses I could bet. Wolverhampton have had 12 similar
races in November. Interesting that 3 year olds were 0-31 in these races and a few younger horses today look opposable. SAMURAI WARRIOR looks underraced this year to me and changing stables doesnt appeal. You can argue that as 3 year olds with under 8 runs this season were 1-89 and
that EL FUSER is underraced this year as well and I cant make a case for him on his recent form. LYTTON has to go. He is also underraced this year and having been sold for just £800 after his last run he looks to have big problems and I will be shocked if he wins. FORCED UPON US looks
vulnerable to me as an older exposed horse up in trip. I am sceptical about JUST JIMMY as a 3yo with an absence and I cant find one that won that either came from sellers or that was as exposed as him and feel he is unsafe.
The strongest or at least most rounded profile must be BLUE CHARM and although he wouldnt look bomb proof by any means and didnt show much at Leicester last time but the draw may have hurt him last time and given the profiles of others in the race BLUE CHARM looks strongest.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.30

9/4 Remember Ramon, 9/2 Graylyn Ruby, 6/1 Dragon Slayer, Five Two, 8/1 Swords, 10/1 Drawn Gold, Locum, 12/1 Freedom Song, 25/1 New Beginning.

The 3.30pm at Wolves is an unpleasnt 12f handicap. Wolves have had 83 of these races at this time of year. I thought NEW BEGINNING was outclasssed and FREEDOM SONG underraced this year. I dont want SWORDS as the oldest horse with the longest absence and a record that suggests he wants a recent run. REMEMBER RAMON looks underraced this season to me as an older horse thats had only 3 runs this year and that also has to step up in distance. I cant find a similar winner to him and his trainer hasnt had a winner since Febuary. I couldnt make him a big negative
and he was gambled last time but I think there are holes in his profile. I do not want DRAGON SLAYER as an exposed horse up in distance. Horses that did that without a run within 2 weeks were 0-52 and I see that as a problem for a horse that may not want to go this far. I cant rule out the 3yo handicappers GRAYLYN RUBY or LOCUM. I cant completely rule out DRAWN GOLD but he wouldnt top my list up in trip after an absence. I thought FIVE TWO had a strong profile and I just decided that he should
be the selection so FIVE TWO would be my idea of the best bet but its not an easy race to sort out.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

5/2 Arganil, 9/2 Luscivious, Matsunosuke, 7/1 Bertoliver, 8/1 Soopacal,12/1 The Jobber, 14/1 Fyodor, Vhujon, 16/1 Harbour Blues, 20/1 Almaty Express.

The 4.00pm is a tough 5f handicap. All I can say is that Statistically FYODOR and SOOPACAL should not be able to defy their absences and that ALMATY EXPRESS should fail for fitness with 2 runs since June. HARBOUR BLUES makes no appeal. VHUJON makes no appeal down in trip as a 3 year old. THE JOBBER is ok statistically but is a bit to quirky for me. I dont see any reason why the others cant win and their form is tightly knit and often from the same race. Several of these come from the same Southwell race 15 days ago. I would respect the 3 year old ARGANIL but would have been happier if he had ran more than he has and I would see him as the natural "saver" in the race. I would be looking elsewhere for a selection and think the Southwell race 15 days ago is most likely to throw up that winner. LUSCIVIOUS and BERTOLIVER may well be the ones. I will go with BERTOLIVER and save on Luscivious.

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.30

3/1 Dart, 7/2 Inchpast, 6/1 Mohawk Star, 9/1 Urban Warrior, Victory Quest, 10/1 Into The Light, 12/1 Spiritonthemount, Squirtle, 14/1 Bank On Benny, Opera De Luna, 16/1 Pseudonym.

The 4.30 is a 2 mile handicap. Last week I was really confident that the class dropper INCHPAST would win and I fancied him to beat DART but in the end he only managed second. INCHPAST will be fitter and will appreciate the return to Polytrack in my view and on paper at least
there is a strong case for INCHPAST beating DART today. He wont be my selection though. I dont like his draw in stall one. You have to go back 45 Course and Distance Handicaps that had a big field for the last winner here drawn in stall 1 and its by far the worst draw and I dont
really want to bet a horse drawn one here over this far. DART may well win again but she isnt really my sort of bet and I do wonder if there is something better lurking. I dont see VICTORY QUEST beating her today. I dont want BANK ON BENNY as he comes from a 12f race with under 6 runs this year and a 1-77 record of similar horses suggests
that he may find that tough. I dont want PSEUDONYM after his poor hurdles run the other day. Spiritonthemount and Opera De Luna look outclassed. SQUIRTLE has never won in this class of race and would be happier in a 0-60. URBAN WARRIOR is out with 7 weeks absence and because his sire hasnt yet bred a 2m winner yet. Two horses that
had strong profiles were INTO THE LIGHT and MOHAWK STAR
and I think both offer sporting alternatives to Inchpast who I would have picked with a better draw. MOHAWK STAR just gets the nod

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00

3/1 Eternal Optimist, 7/2 Kirstys Lad, 6/1 Alexander Guru,
7/1 Follow The Flag, 15/2 Liberty Valance, 10/1 Felicia, 12/1 Dontpaytheferryman, 14/1 Distant Piper, Hit The Roof, 20/1 Lady Charlemagne

The 5pm is division 1 of the extended mile handicap. I didnt think that either DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN or LADY CHAMPAGNE looked fit enough. HIT THE ROOF has the same problem. FELICIA didnt do enough for me last time. I would be against the horses that step up from 6f so LIBERTY VALANCE has to go coming from 6f with both a long
absence and coming from a 3yo claimer. FOLLOW THE FLAG is also rejected coming from a 6f race. DISTANT PIPER didnt do enough for me two days ago against her own sex to warrant betting her against males with topweight. ALEXANDER GURU is fine statistically but from a
stable thats weak and winnerless in some time and he wouldnt be my prefered choice from the outside draw. Overall I felt the strongest profiles belonged to ETERNAL OPTIMIST and KIRSTSY LAD

**********************************************
**********************************************

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30

3/1 The Grey One, 100/30 Ours, 13/2 Quick Off The Mark,
7/1 Dushstorm, Stormin Heart, 8/1 Pearl Dealer, 14/1 Flagstone, Prince Golan, When Yer Ready, 33/1 Daraiym

SELECTION - THE GREY ONE

The 5.30pm is division 2 of the extended 8f handicap. Several here looked to have weak profiles. I couldnt have QUICK OFF THE MARK as a 3yo filly with just 4 runs and 2 this year and I cant find a similar winner in all races at Wolves. DARAIYM has to go dropping from 14f and having
a long absence. FLAGSTONE has to go coming from hurdles and with no sand experience. I thought it was hard for DUSHSTORM to overcome a 10 length defeat just 2 days ago. I looked at all horses that ran within the previous week to see how many overcame defeats. All 27 that were beaten
6 or more lengths lost and DUSHSTORM may not overcome that. Horses that came from 7f races without a very recent run interested me. I looked at the 50 Wolves races between 8f and 9f at this time of year. You find that
most horses that won coming from 7f or shorter had a very recent run within 2 weeks. Those that did not struggled. When these horses had 5 or more runs and were anything other than very lightly raced they had a 1-84 record. How
that trend shapes up today is crucial as several runners here have that against them. OURS fails that statistic. So to does PEARL DEALER who also has to overcome a 108 day absence. STORMIN HEART fails that as well as does PRINCE GOLAN who also comes here from a heavy defeat. There
is just one horse I cant fault statistically. Thats THE GREY ONE

**********************************************
**********************************************