Monday January 28th

No Bets Today

Starting off with a Blank Day on Monday. Didnt do very well for you last week with the 3 main selections. All were decent prices but I just didnt fire with them and it was a week to put behind us with no luck and a bad cold hindering me. Will improve this week. Think today is very much an issue based day. I think in 8 previews at Ludlow
and Wolves I have just raised the important issues in each race. There are a mixture of selections and shortlists but Not one bet I want to start the week with. I was very
interested in a horse that let us down when she was a strong bet for us last time. This is MIKA'S FABLE in the 2.30 at Ludlow. I fancied her strongly last time. I think she was about to go very close before she ran out of stamina. This drop to 2 miles and better ground looks ideal for her today. My biggest worry is a big field. You can only have a certain ammount of confidence in 18 runner handicaps but I want to highlight her as my only selection today and suggest you bet her to recover the stakes lost on
her at Folkestone last time out. No Best Bet or Account Bet

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TODAY' S RACING

Ludlow 1.30 -9/4 Pierrot Lunaire, 100/30 Mamlook, 7/2 Harry Tricker, 8/1 Hot Diamond, 14/1 Driving Miss Suzie, 16/1 Doubly Guest, 20/1 Cnoc Moy, Indicible, 25/1 Arabellas Homer, 33/1 Arctic Wings, Cat Six, 50/1 Dee Cee Elle, Hesivorthedriver, Rainbow Flame, 100/1 Sonar Sound.

The card starts with a 4 year old hurdle. There are about half a dozen runners with a chance including unraced ones and you really have to choose which option you prefer if your having a Bet. All eyes will be on the Unraced PIERTOT LUNAIRE from Paul Nicholls. He has recently had the horse as a "Pigeon Catcher" in his media column and has hinted he could run in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Possible arguments against him other than the fact he is unraced do exist. Maybe the Trainers 1 from 8 record with Unraced 4 year olds in these races at this time of year - Maybe also Stamina might be an issue. So far PIERTOT LUNAIRE 's sire hasnt yet bred a jumps winner (only 0-5 so inconclusive) but the horse didnt run past 10f on the flat.I would be surprised if this became an issue to be honest but its worth mentioning. MAMLOOK is favourite around 15/8. He sets the standard. MAMLOOK has a W W record from 2 starts and many will fancy him. He has nothing wrong with his profile but comes from 3 year old races and horses with his profile scored no better in these races than unraced horses like the favourite did in the same races. MAMLOOK and PIERTOT LUNAIRE are as strong as each other statistically. I would favour neither over the other. As one has a double penalty and one is unraced it would be no more than a Guess to split them. Not a race that can really be sorted through any compelling angles. I dont fancy DRIVING MISS DAISY as fillies absent over 7 weeks had a 1-60 record in all similar races. DOUBLY GUEST is an unraced 4yo filly but they do and can win (4-144 record) . The negatives make no difference and hardly help. HARRY TRICKER is unraced. His stable have a modeat 1-17 record with similar unraced types. I dont see why HOT DIAMOND cant win this race. There is no statistical reason why not but I suspect that he may just lack the class of the market leaders. I think he would also be a lot shorter in the market if he was fancied. If he stays around 12/1 I would be inclined to leave him alone. I do not see how a selection can be made. The Favourite MAMLOOK comes out fine but so to do the unraced 2nd and 3rd favourites. Highlighted all the issues I see as relevant in the race. Cant call it.

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Ludlow 2.00 - 4/5 French Saulaie, 7/2 Chaninbar, Consigliere, 20/1 Climate Change, Kervriou, 25/1 Quillan Hill, Thenford Flyer, 33/1 Dante´s Diamond, 66/1 Arte Et Marte, Grey Shark, The Thunderer, 100/1 Beesneez, Orrezzo.

This for me is a trappy race despite a reasonable frame to the race. You have 3 very strong runners statistically and a host of outsiders and semi outsiders. I see no reason why FRENCH SAULAIE cant win this and he will find these fences far easier than Chepstow's where he fell on his chase debut. FRENCH SAULAIE is Easily the best horse in the race on Hurdling form. He does set the standard - He is the Most likely winner - But he also comes with limited reward at odds on for jumping round against a couple of decent prospects who could improve. The "each way" options CHANINBAR and CONSIGLIERE are both fine as well statistically. I can see the arguments for betting each way in this race as there isnt much strength in depth. I prefer CONSIGLIERE of the each way options. I think you are better off with him a she is from a far more powerful stable than Chaninbar. Its still going to take a lot to beat the Favourite. My gut feeling is FRENCH SAULAIE is being sent here to win and to see if he has any chance in the Arkle at Cheltenham. I expect him to probably win this as the class horse but he will have to jump round today.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 2:10 - RACE AHEAD WITH ZENA @ PONTIN'S FILLIES' HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 5f216y

11/8 Crimson Fern, 9/2 Cow Girl, 6/1 Briery Blaze, 7/1 Capania, 8/1 Time Share, 14/1 On The Map, Prettilini, 20/1 Shafrons Canyon, 25/1 Cadogen Square.

* This is a fillies handicap over just short of 6f
* There has been 38 similar races run at this time of year
* I find it pretty impossible to oppose CRIMSON FERN
* She's in form - proven here - and has rivals with some serious doubts
* COW GIRL drops from 8f to 5.5f and thats very race. None managed it in 38 races
* I looked at all similar races at any time of year
* Horses that tried it had a 2-75 record but both winners were seasonal debutants
* Think thats relevant and COW GIRL wouldnt appeal to me dropping so far in trip
* She has never raced at 5f in her entire career
* My issue with CAPANIA is that she is a maiden coming from a 7f race
* Taking the issue with horses that drop from 7f - They are not great when inexperienced
* Horses doing it with under 9 career starts are 0-18
* CAPANIA has had only 7 career starts. She is also a maiden
* Maidens- coming from 7f races into all 5.5f handicaps were 2-112 all year round
* Think there are doubts about CAPANIA - She's another never to have ran over this short a trip
* TIME SHARE is the only runner that comes up from a 5f race
* That can be done - but of those that did it none were lightweights as he is
* You can also consider the fact she comes from a 0-45 classified race
* In 38 similar races all 27 horses that did that lost
* PRETTILINI also has to come from a 0-45 race
* BRIERY BLAZE has to come from a 7f race and has a long 8 week absence
* Thats not a profile I like at all and BRIERY BLAZE also has the worst draw
* I cant see past CRIMSON FERN and think she will win again
* Only thing that would worry me would be if she is weak in the betting
* I didnt see a profile I could prefer to hers but in a race like this I would be nervous if she drifted
* I feel CRIMSON FERN has to be the selection

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Ludlow 2.30 - 4/1 Cee Cee Rider, 5/1 Diavoleria, 6/1 Mika´s Fable, 7/1 Hiho Silver Lining, 8/1 Nakoma, 10/1 Hot Lips Page, 14/1 Littlemissdynamite, Psychic Star, 16/1 Shropshirelass, The Sneakster, 20/1 Femme D´Avril, Moonlight Music, Popcorn Rosie, 25/1 Chinara, Star Berry, 33/1 Mandalay Lady, 50/1 Llizaam, Rich Nomad.

This is a Mares only handicap Hurdle over 2 miles. Have to admit I was very dissapointed with the trends in this race as most Mares races are strong statistically. What I did find was that the weakest areas included Horses with long absences. They scored badly. So to did very high weighted horses with 11st 7lbs or more. Ludlow had just 5 renewals and they all went to horses under 11st (taking jockeys claims into account) and Ludlow results at other times of year suggests lightweights were easily better. I was also happy to oppose the horses that had been Chasing. All I would say is the Following horses are horses I could Not bet mainly because of either high weights or absences or Chase form. I was against the likes of NAKOMA - SHROPSHIRELASS HOT LIPS PAGE - POPCORN ROSIE - HIHO SILVER LINING - THE SNEAKSTER - FEMME D'AVRIL. I wouldnt have selected DIAVOLERIA as an Easterby horse coming from a maiden hurdle. I wouldnt have selected any horse I have mentioned already. Equally I felt it was a pretty tough race and I dont have good trends in this race at all.

That said I think you should consider MIKA'S FABLE. This mare was an Account bet on January 2nd in a Mares Handicap hurdle over almost 18 furlongs. I really fancied MIKA'S FABLE that day having caught my eye on video in her previous races where winners had boosted the form. She came only 5th last time and that dissapointed me but I was certain after the race that she had not stayed the 18 furlongs on bad ground at Folkestone. She came there on the bridle and looked certain for a least a place and then after cantering 3 furlongs out she ran out of petrol in my opinion. Today the ground is quicker. The two furlongs shorter trip is a massive help to her. I think she is a 2 miler and I strongly fancy MIKA'S FABLE to show that today. I suppose confidence can only be limited in a big field of 18 runners but MIKA'S FABLE is the stand out bet in the race and I am giving her the chance to prove me right about her not staying last time. The only conceivable bet for me in this race is MIKA'S FABLE around 11/2.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3:10 - THE FAMILY ARE OFF TO PONTIN'S FILLIES' HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m1f103y

9/4 Perfect Practice, 7/2 Chia, Meditation, 6/1 Satin Braid, 7/1 Sforzando, 10/1 Wasalat, 25/1 Rosie´s Glory.

* This is a 9f handicap for fillies
* There has been 29 similar races at this time of year
* Its quite an open race despite a couple of weak profiles
* I would be against ROSIE'S GLORY taking a radical drop in trip from 14f
* WASALAT didnt appeal with a 100 day absence
* I didnt want SFORZANDO as this trip is just a bit short for her
* SFORZANDO has had only 1 race since November as well
* MEDITATION has every chance - is fit and running well
* Like many though I dont see why she stands out over any other runner
* CHIA won this last year but now has 9lbs more to carry
* I think her best chance comes from making all - Think she will try that
* Horses like SATIN BRAID that had a months absence when aged 4 had a 1-38 record
* Its a small concern - not a great record - but David Elsworth is more than capable of defying that
* SATIN BRAID has had 3 trainers in 12 races but Elsworth is his best and thats a help
* Nothing against PERFECT PRACTICE at all
* Selection must come from PERFECT PRACTICE - SATIN BRAID - CHIA - MEDITATION
* That shows how tough this is as 4 are shortlisted in a 7 runner race
* Gut feeling is CHIA will be mowed down late by MEDITATION but a horrible race

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Ludlow 3.30 - 7/4 Ouzbeck, 15/8 Matuhi, 5/2 Phenix Jack, 14/1 Osolomio, 16/1 Oshkosh, 20/1 Dakota Boy, 25/1 Great Tsar, 33/1 Fal Agh Bagh, Heezagrey, Nabouko, 100/1 Agoodun, Fredrico, 200/1 Jack London, Longmynd, Zaffarani´s Star, Zaffarans Scene.

This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle. I think all the fancied runners have at least one main factor against them. I dont think there is a horse thats fancied that has a rock solid statistical profile. This makes me feel that its more a race for an each way double. My problem with MATUHI is whether he will stay 2m 5f. He has ran just once and steps up from 2 miles. That wont be easy especially as his sire hasnt yet bred a national hunt winner beyond 20f yet. Said to dislike soft ground he wants it to dry out. I didnt really want him with just 1 run and a trip he isnt proven over. In the 13 renewals of this race horses with just 1 race had a 1-33 record and didnt score well at all. I feel MATUHI will probably stay - but the combination of having only 1 race and stepping up 5 furlongs doesnt appeal to me especially when you cant argue he is sure to improve significantly over this trip. The favourite OUZBECK must be the most solid horse with more experience. He isnt without doubts though. Handicap Hurdlers into Novice Hurdles are often good bets. The only problem for me with OUZBECK is that in 167 similar races - whilst many horses came from handicap hurdles none came from a 2m handicap hurdle. All 12 lost.
I would have prefered to see one win before I took a short price about them. Had OUZBECK come from a longer distance race I would have given him the confident vote but he has not. Both MATUHI and OUZBECK have some question marks. So to does PHENIX JACK coming from a chase. Thats not a great sign. Paul Nicholls has dropped handicap chasers into Novice Hurdles 28 times and come away with 13 winners. Thats a great record. The slight worries were none were as inexperienced as PHENIX JACK and none did it at this time of year and this is a time of year when only 1 horse in every 40 comes from chases to win such races. I wasnt persuaded by OSOLOMIO on his debut. All 15 debutants lost in this race and they had a weak 5-184 record at other tracks. Cant entertain DAKOTA BOY from a Bumper. I think the safest choice and the most sensible choice has to be OUZBECK but I feel this is a selection that should be placed in an each way double.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4:10 - WOLVERHAMPTON-RACECOURSE.CO.UK HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 7f32y

2/1 Divertimenti, 3/1 Xpres Maite, 7/1 Methaaly, Northern Boy, 10/1 Bel Cantor, 12/1 Celtic Step, Sir Douglas, Social Rhythm, 50/1 Grenane,

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-74
* Interesting race - We were on XPRES MAITE when he won by 3 lengths last time out
* DIVERTIMENTI was beaten by 3 lengths last time out
* Personally I feel DIVERTIMENTI's defeat was more credible form than XPRES MAITE's
* DIVERTIMENTI was beaten in a better class 0-85 last time
* When XPRES MAITE won there wasnt a horse rated above 65 in the race
* Neither are brilliantly drawn but I feel DIVERTIMENTI will beat XPRES MAITE
* I cant have CELTIC STEP who drops from 12f to 7f
* Cant have SOCIAL RHYTHM the only filly or the rank outsider Grenane
* BEL CANTOR is well handicaped but its hard to argue these are his conditions
* Better on Grass - Better in the Flat Season after May - Has a 7 weeks absence
* I felt there were too many doubts about him
* I think DIVERTIMENTI is better class than Methaaly -Northern Boy -Sir Douglas
* For me DIVERTIMENTI is a bit better class than these and is the selection

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4:40 - SPONSOR A RACE BY CALLING 0870 220 2442 MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 7f32y

Evs West Lorne, 5/1 Moscow Oznick, 8/1 Little Lovely, 10/1 Doric Dream, 14/1 Awesome Light, Mr Macattack, 25/1 Rightcar Hull, Tripod Molly,

* This is a 7f maiden for 3 year olds
* There has been 31 Wolverhampton races like this and 86 at other tracks
* WEST LORNE is an unraced Mark Johnston filly
* The Racing Post correctly say that Johnston has a fine record with 3yo newcomers on this track
* In fact its 4 winners from 5 runners in these 31 Wolves races
* What they dont say is that none were fillies and WEST LORNE is a filly
* Johnstons record in maidens with unraced fillies is a less impressive 1-10
* In 38 races unraced fillies have a 2-29 record
* Much will depend on how strong the opposition is
* I cant have LITTLE LOVELY or DORIC DREAM and rated them weak statistically
* Both are fillies coming from 2yo maidens and fillies doing that have a 1-78 record in 31 races here
* Both are fillies absent over a Month (3-108 record isnt great)
* LITTLE LOVELY comes from a 5f race which is a big problem
* In 86 similar races at all tracks horses that came from 5f races had a 0-39 record
* DORIC DREAM is a filly that comes from 6f
* Looking at fillies trying that - they are fine with a recent run but 0-56 when having a 16+day break
* I feel AWESOME LIGHT has a bit too much to do
* Nicky Vaughan /Michael Owen complicate matters by running MOSCOW OZNICK and MR MACATTACK
* I wasnt too impressed with the profile of MOSCOW OZNICK who appears to be stable number one
* Must be worth considering the chance that MR MACATTACK springs a surprise at 10/1

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