Thursday 28th February

No Selections Today

Promised a quick message today. I have written up just one race (3.20 Ludlow) where I am having 2 small bets in the race myself. Not making either a Full Bet. Today I have included a timetable for the next 6 days. Going to be sending a long Cheltenham Preview in a couple of days time. Almost every race included in that. Plenty of detail. Should be a Help before the meeting starts a week on Tuesday. Therefore there wont be a message tomorrow as I
am doing the Cheltenham Preview. There will be a normal Saturday message. I am around all day today and tomorrow for anyone wanting stats on the Racing or views on any race. Despite having to sacrifice tomorrows message the Cheltenham Preview wont be short and will be good quality so it makes sense to get it out quickly.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Going to look at only one race today. Said yesterday that it would be a short message. Before I do that I just want to give some explanation of what to expect in the next few
days. Cheltenham is coming. Staking Plans will be altered. Plenty to do and the Racing tails off just before Cheltenham so this is the next 7 week Plan.

Thursday (Today) - Mathematician 997

Friday - No Message as Cheltenham Preview is being prepared

Saturday - Mathematician 998 and a Full Message planed

Sunday - No Message

Monday - No Message as Cheltenham Preview is being Dispatched

Tuesday - Mathematician 999 - Full Message

Wednesday - Mathematician 000 - Staking Plan Changes in a Full Message

The staking plan changes next Tuesday but It will be a day where I will send out some early Cheltenham thoughts. The Cheltenham Preview will probably be the size of three Long E Mails. Planning to use it as a "Preliminary" Festival message to "steer" you in the right direction. Plan
to cover most races at the festival. Plan to show exactly where I will be going statistically in each of the races and have an early look at some of the handicaps. From my point of view it will be a Statistical Framework in each race to start off the longer road to bets and selections. Iintend to rule out as many types of horse in each race by ruling out the profiles that can not be considered. That will leave most races with provisional shortlists and then we have a week to build on that and get as many races right as Possible.

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LUDLOW 3:20 - BETTERBETCORBETT.CO.UK "NATIONAL HUNT" NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-120) 2m5f

100/30 Nakoma, 7/2 Foxspur, 4/1 Major Malarkey, 9/2 Harbour Breeze, 6/1 Roussea, 8/1 Carys´s Lad, 12/1 Carrickmines, 33/1 Pipers Legend.

* F O X S P U R ought to win this race in my view
* It is a 2m5f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 48 similar races in Febuary and March since 1993
* I want to oppose the rank outsider PIPERS LEGEND
* NAKOMA has a problem in my view in being a female coming from 2 miles
* I feel thats asking far too much of her
* In 48 races - Females that came from distances short of 19f have a 0-33 record
* I looked at every 2m 5f Novice Handicap Hurdle all year round in Classes 2-3-4-5
* There has been 275 of these races
* Female horses that came from 2 Mile races as NAKOMA does were 1-111
* Only 1 of the 275 races went to a 2 mile chaser as well like ROUSSEA
* ROUSSEA is a 10 year old chaser reverting to hurdles
* In 275 races all year round there was no winners aged 9 or more that came from 16f races
* ROUSSEA is also out of the handicap and that takes away the fact he is well handicapped
* He shouldnt have enough in hand to be able to defy his many problems
* These include his age and having to step up from 2 mile chases
* FOXSPUR offers solid handicap form and has plenty of scope for improvement
* There are plenty in this race that come from being well beaten in Novice Hurdles
* MAJOR MALARKEY - HARBOURS BREEZE - CARYS LAD - CARRICKMINES do that
* These 4 horses were all well beaten in novice hurdles
* In the 48 similar races at this time of year there were 16 winners coming from Novice Hurdles
* Only 1 of these failed to finish in the first 5 last time out
* Those that were 6th or worse had a 1-104 record
* CARY'S LAD came 11th and was beaten 90 lengths
* MAJOR MALARKEY was 6th and beaten 48 lengths
* Its a bit of a ridiculous statistic as horses can be eased down and run better than it looks
* It shows that those that do come from Non Handicaps tend to run better than these
* HARBOUR BREEZE also fails that statistic and pulling up in a Novice hurdle last time
* HARBOUR BREEZE has a definate chance if you ignore his last run
* He still has plenty to proe though and doesnt fit the profile of many past winners
* MAJOR MALARKEY is a "Dark" horse for Nigel Twiston Davies
* He as just 4 runs and has been well beaten in all 4 and has his handicap debut
* On the face of it statistically thats a problem for MAJOR MALARKEY
* He hasnt yet done or shown enough and was beaten too far last time
* I am mindful that the stable won with a reasonably similar type (EILA) in January
* You wouldnt say this is above him but he has plenty to prove
* CARYS´S LAD looks too exposed to me to defy a recent thrashing
* This leaves 2 horses

FOXSPUR - CARRICKMINES

* CARRICKMINES comes from a novice hurdle but is fine statistically as he was 4th
* On the negative side I would rather he didnt have to step up in distance
* On the positive side his owner paid a lot for him and he has been well backed in the offices
* As he is fine statistically he would have to be shortlisted
* FOXSPUR is the most likely winner for me albeit at the shortest price
* He has recent handicap form when 3rd in a 0-114
* Today is a similar class race and FOXSPUR has nothing against him statistically
* No step up in distance - solid recent form
* He isnt going to be the best handicapped horse in the race but holds short term advantages
* I think he should have an edge today

I think either FOXSPUR or CARRICKMINES will win
Several options available such as Savers
You could bet FOXSPUR and save on CARRICKMINES
Equally you could bet CARRICKMINES and save on the favourite
Each way singles and doubles are also more then possible

Personally I have settled on my bet in this race.

I am betting FOXSPUR at 5/2

I am also betting CARRICKMINES Place only at 11/8 or better

Good chance of both bets winning

Either winning shows a profit

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