Monday 24th August

No Account Bet


The 4.10pm at Ripon is hardly the sort of race you can be
confident about especially when struggling for winners as
I have been but I do like the race. If I am right about the
Draw and my stats seem conclusive - and right about some
of the other angles in the race then there is just one horse thats stands out a Mile and thats my selection today

Ripon 4.10

OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY 7/1

Long and detailed reasons why I like him later in the message. Losing Chepstow hasnt helped at all today. I thought the main Flat cards at Ripon and Warwick were unimpressive and I have just talked through most races there and the issues involved.

Probably need to take a day off soon. Tomorrow being a day
with 1 Flat card on turf looks favourite so there probably wont be a Tuesday message but I am about if anyone needs anything. The rest will probably help me move into some better form.


**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Both selections lost yesterday. The timing probably wasnt right for a short priced bet but HEADING EAST didnt stay the trip. He made all and took them along winding it up from the front but he just didnt get the 9f. He went
2/5 in running and looked the winner but stamina gave out and he fell back to 3rd. How JIMINOR MACK didnt get placed I dont know. That was a very strangely run race as the starting prices of the placed horses at 14/1 16/1
and 12/1 suggest and with a slow time it looks very much like they went off too fast. JIMINOR MACKS came with his run and possibly took the lead about 2 furlongs out. He went odds on in running and he was laid at 1.05 on
the Place side as well. He just got caught for 3rd place and that was frustrating as 2 furlongs earlier he was odds on to win the race. I thought they both ran well and perhaps deserved a bit better. Probably just one of those days. The Message had 7 selections and came up with 3 winners at 4/1 4/1 and 11/2 but I called the wrong ones at the top of the message and as I always say you should
only bet Paragraph 1 so I cant claim it to be anything but a dissapointing day much as both horses ran well and we didnt have much luck. I dont think that message shows any signs of being out of form though


W A R W I C K

Not a Card I like at all. Cutting through it like a Knife through Butter. Its a card with No relevant history. Its bad ground. I dont want to analyise races with no
angles I cant see any angles in the Nursery. I dont see anything in the Maiden Auction race at 2.00pm. The favourite ADVERTISE has never been on soft ground and if he is anything like his father was (Passing Glance) he will hate the ground as that horse wanted the ground like a Motorway. I would guess that he wont handle soft and as he has a 95 day absence - is badly drawn - has been
gelded - and has a £1300 cheap purchase price I would be looking to oppose him. Thats where you can tie yourself in knots. CHALK HILL BLUE has hardly set pulses racing on her debut. MAJOR POTENTIAL is an unraced horse with top
weight and these horses scorse badly as they concede both weight and experience and besides that his sire was a fast ground horse thats yet to breed a soft ground winner yet. AAHAYKID is also an unraced high-weight and is badly drawn. Its a case of lack of credible opposition. Watch the market for WHAT A DAY from J Quinn's yard. This is definately the trainers best time of year in Auction races
and I liked his trainer stats.

Warwicks Maiden at 3.10 did interest me. Some very strong angles in this race and a race we had an account bet winner in some time ago. Basically you have to have at least 3 career runs. Those that didnt were just 1-64. You really want more than one race this year as all 26 that tried to win with 1 run lost. There is No horse that can pass these trends today - but the closest surely has to be the Barry Hills horse CIGALAS. His stable have twice won the race before and although he has just 1 run this season and thats a bad sign- it is forgivable as all his main rivals are in the same boat. I would have to make CIGALAS the most likely winner and selerction

I didnt like the 2 Mile handicap at all. Statistically I would want to oppose all the runners with under 4 runs this season as they have a 0-74 record in this and
similar races at Warwick. This for me kicks out Tagula Blue - Munlochy Bay - Madam Vouvray -Irish Legend- Historic Place- Very Green. I wouldnt want Moonshine Beach as a 10 year old absent over a month. After that it gets more complicated. IRISH LEGEND could be thrown in as well but as an 8 year old absent 131 days there has to be a fitness doubt. I looked at 420 similar races between 15f -17f at this time of year and no horse that age defied that absence which has to concern me. MISTER COMPLETELY isnt a mudlark. You have to consider that there may be a draw bias. Riculous as it sounds over 2 Miles but there could be. Warwick have had 32 races at 2 Miles in the last 8 years and only 1 of the 32 winners were drawn 13 or more (1-46) so do you have to worry about SQUIRTLE's draw in stall 13. RIGHT OPTION looks ok but thats not a selection
just one of only a few that I cant fault. Tough race.

I ran some trends in the 4.20 conditions race and could only narrow it down to 3 horses. One was LAW LORD whose not been out for a long time and from a stable that has a good record in these races. The second was CALDRA who I think wants fast ground and a small field and he only has one of those considerations today and the last horse was FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS who also look like a horse that would
prefer it fast. LAW LORD does look the more likely winner but is a short price and can you trust Godolphin with these horses anymore.

The 12f handicap at 4.55 wasnt really a race that offered me much. I ran some trends and took out the weak links that failed down to things like experience and it was prettyclear that only OLIMPO - RUDRY WORLD - MOONSHINE CREEK could have been shortlisted. The rest all have something or otherwise to answer to but some of the trends
were a little ambiguous and I saw little I could be confident about statistically

In the Handicap at 5.30 it was a case of what I could or could not bet. I would think it would be unlikely that SNOWED UNDER would defy 10st and a career high mark on
ground that he doesnt want and on a track thats radically different from ideal Leicester. One horse I could have gone for was SPIRIT OF ADJISA but to be honest I wouldnt
want to risk much on a horse that has the worst of the draw. In terms of ROWAN RIO I felt he was impossible to rate accurately. I have no problems that he has just 3 runs and hasnt met older horses before. That wouldnt concern me but I havent found a winner that coped with the absence he has or that came down in trip as he does and these are just open and unsortable isses with him and I just wonder how well regarded he is as he was
allowed to start 16/1 last time in a weaker race. Respected but no more than that. DOVE COTTAGE doesnt look well treated and GALLEGO hasnt got his ground. I think with 1 run since March LUNAR PROMISE will need another run to get fit. GIANT LOVE is ok statistically and he and SPIRIT OF ADJISA made most appeal.

**********************************************
**********************************************


R I P O N


I want to have a crack at the 4.10 handicap which may not look as impossible as it seems on first glance. Before that just a few words about some of the other races.

In the selling race for 2 year olds at 2.25 I fancied EL PORTET last time over 7f in a race where NCHIKE also ran well but didnt stay. On first glance I agreed with the
Racing Post that "the return to 6f does not look ideal " for EL PORTET but I also watched that 7f race last time and although EL PORTET stayed on late he had got to and beaten NCHIKE at the 6f point and I am not convinced he cant win at this trip. I would rather bet EL PORTET at 3/1 than BOLD ACCOUNT at 2/1. You can argue that BOLD ACCOUNT is less likely to want bad ground although thats
not proven but you cant argue with the fact that if both horses ran in a Nursery today then BOLD ACCOUNT would be getting 18lbs weight as he is rated 45 where as
EL PORTET is rated 68. At level weights and at bigger odds EL PORTET has to be a better bet. I wouldnt rule out NCHIKE either. He wants this drop in trip but
he probably wants better ground as well. I think with NCHIKE likely to race up with the pace and BOLD ACCOUNT another that may do that - one of the big factors in play here is how strongly Ripons strange track bias plays out as this is not a course that has always helped the hold up horses. If I was having a bet I would take the view that on ratings EL PORTET should win this race but also take the
view that the track could help NCHIKE and he was better value and likely to trade a lot shorter in running even if he doesnt win.

In the 3pm I wouldnt have picked MOONAGE DAYDREAM as this is a race that has been dominated by high weights and only 2 of the 13 winners had under 9st. I respect HAZELRIGG but dont see why he should be backed at a price as short as
15/8 when he is 11/4 in the forecasts and a lightweight. Only 1 of the 13 winners had under 7 runs and he is just one possible winner thats underpriced for me. I think
you can make a case for several but I would have come down on the side of one of 2 alternatives in NORTHERN BOLT or BALDEMAR. Both will love the ground and
are high weights.

I wouldnt like to call the 3.35 statistically but I wonder if DESERT PHANTOM hasnt been overrated a bit. Not sure that I could stomach a filly coming from 5f
like FAVOURITE GIRL and I cant find a winner with her profile. If I had to pick one in this race it would be TALKING HANDS. I wouldnt see past TAARESH in the Maiden at 4.45 but it was the last 2 races that took my eye.

**********************************************
**********************************************

RIPON 4:10 - RIPON ROWELS HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-100) 1m

5/1 Webbow, 6/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 8/1 Jaser, 10/1 Bolodenka, Exit Smiling, Mangham, 12/1 Cobo Bay, Collateral Damage, Mountain Pride, Raptor, 14/1 Blue Spinnaker, Kinsya, 16/1 Nevada Desert, Summon Up Theblood, 20/1 Minority Report, Moody Tunes, 33/1 Lucky Dance.

* This is a 0-100 Handicap over a Mile
* Ripon have 17 renewals of this race since 1990
* There has been 202 similar handicaps in August-September
* I want to first talk about the Draw bias
* I want to make a strong case for HIGH Numbers being best
* Since 2004 Ripon have had 15 of these races
* Thats 15 handicaps with 11 or more runners in them
* Stalls 1-2-3-4-5-5-6 had a 0-85 record
* That has to be significant in such a big field
* Look at the results of the last 8 handicaps with 11 + runners
* The winning stalls and number of runners were these
* 11/11- 14/14 - 14 /12 - 11/15 -11/12 -10/12 -18/18 - 18/18
* The last horse to win from a low draw was back in 2003
* That was in a Nursery when Breathing Sun caused a 25/1 shock
* BLUE SPINNAKER is rejected Drawn 1 a miserable draw
* He was also well beaten in last years race
* He is also a 9 year old thats been absent 37 days a real issue
* SUMMON UP THE RED is out drawn 2
* He has to also come from a 3 year old handicap over 7f
* In Ripon's 17 races no 3 year old won carrying more than 9st (0-24)
* In Ripon's 17 races no 3 year old won from a 3yo handicap (0-20)
* MANGHAM Looks badly drawn in stall 3
* He also comes from a 3yo handicap and all 20 tried that lost in this
* Horses are fine at other tracks from 3yo handicaps
* MANGHAM comes out very well looking at other races
* I just cant forgive him is draw in this race and he looks avoidable
* JASER is drawn 4 and again a bad draw
* He also has to come from a 3y handicap and has a 67 day absence
* He looks weak with that absence to me
* We know no 3yo had 9st or more or came from handicaps in this
* MOODY TUNES is drawn in stall 5 again a bad draw
* He won a claimer last time which I dont have an issue with
* Its just that the horses he beat were not that good and this is much harder
* Without a good draw I couldnt give him the benefit of the doubt
* MOUNTAIN HIGH is drawn 6 and the last of my "bad draws"
* We know that none of the 17 winners came from 3yo handicaps
* His profile is fine elsewhere though and he looks smart
* I just think this will be too much from his draw
* MINORITY REPORT has a 68 day break and is now aged 8
* He has gone well fresh many times before so that is one factor
* Never when he was older than 6 though and thats a problem
* Horses aged 8 or more that face such an absence score badly
* Its asking an awful lot from an 8 year old in my view
* Especially when he hasnt got what you would call a good draw
* Dandy has got him down to 82 from 94 in the 6 runs he has trained him
* He has still never won on soft ground though and looks opposable
* There has been 202 handicaps at this time of year like this
* Only 3 of the 202 winners had 1 race this season
* All 3 were very lightly raced younger horses
* With 5 or more runs horses with 1 run this year were 0-45
* Hard to see BOLODENKA winning aged 6 with 29 runs
* He has Fallen over hurdles and ran just once on the flat since in 11 months
* He is also on a career high mark and has never won on soft before
* He did win last year but was far
* LUCKY DANCER is out at 40/1 + coming from 11 furlongs
* NEVADA DESERT os well drawn but not for me
* I suspect he is better in a small field but thats forgivable
* He hasnt won in this class before though and he is an 8 year old
* He comes here off a bad run as well and others look stronger
* Last years race was far easier and just 9 runners and he couldnt place there
* I have a problem with WEBBOW in this race
* He has ran just twice since August 2007
* He has won handicaps off 72 79 and 83 last year
* This year though his rating is up to 89
* He has lost both times he ran off this mark this year
* I question whether he can be ready to defy this mark when underraced
* I looked at 202 similar races for horses with under 3 runs that year
* When aged 5 or more they were 1-62 and WEBBOW is a 6 year old
* I am opposing him on grounds he may not be at his best
* I dont want COBO BAY as a 3 year old with 9st 9lbs
* No 3 year old won this race with more than 9st
* He also has to come from 7f and looks badly handicapped now
* I dont want to side with RAPTOR with topweight
* He has no form in big fields and looks to have a stiff task
* He comes here on the back of a poor run and looks unsafe
* None of Ripons 17 winners had ran in Group class before and he has
* COLLATERAL DAMAGE is fine statistically but two worries here
* He is not drawn well and he is 0-16 in Class 2 races
* I dont want KINSYA today
* He is 5lbs higher than he has ever won from before
* He only has 3 runs this year not good for an exposed horse
* In 202 similar races horses with 1-2-3 runs this year did win
* However with 13 + runs they had a poor 3-127 record
* None were his age or did it in this race
* I just think KINSYA may not be ready to win
* EXIT SMILINGS best win came from a mark of 76
* He is now on a Mark of 89 though
* The handicapper keeps pushing him up for getting beaten
* Drawn in stall 8 he cant have the benefit of the doubt
* OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY has so much going for him
* He is drawn 17 of 17 which looks good
* 5 of the last 8 handicaps here went to the highest stall
* He has just placed off 85 so we cant say he is badly in from 87
* It is a career high mark but he had looked progressive
* In May and June he had a W W W record winning off 68 72 and 79
* He looked on a roll and capable of far more
* He then came 3rd at Thirsk but I made him a big negative that day
* He had a tough weight and a months absence and that race wasnt right
* Its to his credit he managed to finish 3rd when needing the run
* In a race with so many badly drawn and badly prepared horses -
* I would have to give him a massive chance of winning this race
* OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY is the selection

**********************************************
**********************************************

RIPON 5:20 - R. H. EMSLEY & SONS HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-70) 1m1f170y

11/8 Eton Fable, 5/2 Devinius, 7/1 Soggy Dollar, 8/1 Shaylee, 10/1 Joinedupwriting, 16/1 Manuka Bee,
25/1 Mill Beattie, Plenilune, 33/1 Doctor Delta, 66/1 Riorun.

* This is an extended 9f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* Ripon has had 26 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 163 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with 3 runs have a poor 0-27 record in this race
* DOCTOR DELTA - SHAYLEE fail that and dont appeal
* I am againt horses that come from maidens who are 0-42 in this
* These maidens score badly at other tracks as wel
* SOGGY DOLLAR fails that and looks underraced this year
* Horses that lost by 10 + lengths had a miserable record in this race
* Manuka Bee- Mill Beattie - Plenilune -Riorun all fail that
* I suspect this is down to 3 runners
* ETON FABLE - JOINEDUPWRITING - DEVINIUS
* My issue with DEVINIUS is stamina
* She may stay but her sire hasnt yet bred a 10f winner
* This is 9f and 170 yards on soft ground
* She is also a filly coming from an 8f race and shes questionable
* Wouldnt make her a negative but she does have some issues
* ETON FABLE has a really strong profile and looks solid
* You can give JOINEDUPWRITING an each way chance
* He perhaps offers the best "Value" in the race
* I would still see ETON FABLE as a more likely winner

**********************************************
**********************************************