Sunday 29th June

No Account Bet

Just a short one today. Decided I had just enough to do a
Sunday Message this week and feel one selection should
do us for the day. Plans this week are Clear. Messages on
Monday and Tuesday. I can not do a Wednesday message
so that will be the day off. After that messages through to the weekend.

Todays Selection

Salisbury 1.55pm

(8) Western Roots

Be careful as there is a horse in this race with a very similar name (Wester Ross). The horse we are betting is WESTERN ROOTS who is number 8 and trained by Andrew Balding. I see him as worth a modest bet around 9/4. What may have been a better idea really was to have considered the each way double with Western Roots and Special Reserve (3.30 Salisbury). At around 9/4 and 6/4 that makes plenty of appeal to me and I may well be back in Mondays message saying I chose the wrong bet and should have gone for
the e/w double. Decided to go with the win bet though. One fifth of yesterdays stake just as a guide of confidence.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

Winning bet yesterday on Mezzanissi. Not big odds and I know the 9/4 and 5/2 was not likely to have been obtained by many. The horse was 6/4 and 13/8 most of the day but it shortened as confidence in some of them wasnt there and it became clear they were not fancied. In the end He only looked to have one main danger and he beat her comfortably. Would have prefered a bigger priced winner but at least it won well and the analysis stood up and got to be happy about his win yesterday after a couple of weeks that lacked really strong bets.

Just a Short and Sweet message today. Not looking for any heroics. Just want to put a few thoughts down on paper. Want to combine a short message with a bit of sport
on the Box and start Mondays message. Football tonight and a small interest bet on Spain to win 2-0 to eliviate the boredom . Interesting to see Nadal playing very well
at Wimbledon and hopefully on the way to setting up the Dream Final next Sunday. In the meantine we are back in form and Hopefully we are about to have a good week

Curragh 3.50pm - Irish Derby

11/10 Tartan Bearer, 3/1 Casual Conquest, 9/1 Alessandro Volta, 9/1 Curtain Call, 20/1 Frozen Fire
25/1 Washington Irving, 33/1 Centennial, 50/1 Winchester, 66/1 Hindu Kush, 200/1 Bashkirov, 500/1 Upton Grey.

If I was having a Bet in the Irish Derby which I am not - then CURTAIN CALL each way at 8/1 makes most appeal to me. At the end of the day the 2 main runners who were 2nd and 3rd in the Derby both have serious claims and it may come down to which of these had a hard race at Epsom or who have recovered the best and you can not know that. Throw in different ground. Thrown in which horses may have good and bad rides today having had good and bad rides at Epsom and its pretty clear you can make a case for either of them. I didnt fancy Casual Conquest at Epsom with his inexperience but he wasnt beaten far and as the Most disadvantaged at Epsom he is entitled to possible produce the most improvement. Now New Approach is out TARTAN BEARER is a short price. Massive Chance but not for me at the price. I think CURTAIN CALL has a chance of a different track. Beaten 10 lengths in the Derby he was eased and not given a great ride and its not impossible he can improve enough. He isnt a place banker by any means but confidence was massive before the Derby and he gets one more chance as he is a decent price e/w.


Uttoxeter 2.45

5/2 Hills Of Home, 4/1 Villochely, 9/2 The Snail, 5/1 Bearneen Boy, 6/1 Optic, 14/1 One Scoop, Rapid Pete, 20/1 What Luck, 25/1 Humbel Origins, 33/1 Caretta Caretta, Squeaker, 50/1 Deer Fin, 100/1 Lord Morley, Rushbury Lad, Short Straw.

This is a Maiden Hurdle over an extended 20f . I have looked at all Maiden Hurdles at this time of year between 19f and 22f and I think I would have to go with HILLS OF HOME in this race. There has been 114 of these Maiden Hurdles at this time of year and I wouldnt want BEARNEEN BOY coming from a Bumper. We are not in peak season for opposing Bumper horses and they have won a few of these races but none have won this race and they generally score badly. I would want to oppose the females in this race as well. VILLOCHELY is a female horse thats only had 2 career starts and a female horse that comes from a 2 mile race and has to step up in trip. In 114 similar races Females that had 1 or 2 career runs had a weak 1-76 record. Females that had to step up from 2 mile races had a 1-83 record. Today VILLOCHELY has to combine both and I dont really want a Mare attempting that. I am also going to take on OPTIC as she is a female. THE SNAIL has a chance but he didnt do enough for me last time out and I dont think he is anything special. I think on fast ground the talented but hard to train HILLS OF HOME may have too much for these. Sure to have been well schooled after a fall almost 3 months ago. I think he may have a bit too much talent for these.

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S A L I S B U R Y & W I N D S O R

Wanted to put a few things down on text at Salisbury at Windsor. Salisbury actually has a long history
but itstops in 2006 as the 2007 meeting was abandoned. That History has pretty much been hidden from the public domain and felt it was worth just making a few points.


Salisbury 1.55pm

5/2 Western Roots, 4/1 Zach´s Harmoney, 5/1 Balnagore, 8/1 Follow The Colours, Master Mahogany 10/1 Siena Star, Wester Ross, 16/1 Red Current, 25/1 Muffett´s Dream, Play Up Pompey.

Selection - WESTERN ROOTS

This is a 0-68 handicap just short of 10 furlongs and Salisbury has had 16 renewals of this race. First
thing to say is make sure you dont confuse WESTERN ROOTS the favourite with the similar named Wester Ross an outsider. That wouldnt be a difficult mistake to make. One issue that hit me between the eyes in this race was whether BALNAGORE was different class to these. He comes from a 0-82 handicap. ZACH'S HARMONEY comes from a Class 6 handicap for 0-57 rated horses and there is a big difference there. In the 16 Salisbury renewals horses that came from Class 6 races had a 0-36 record. Thats why I do not want ZACH'S HARMONEY or SIENA STAR in this race. I dont want Wester Ross at all. I wouldnt rule out FOLLOW THE COLOURS as he does come from a Good trial race and
I do like things like that. Looking again at BALNAGORE he is a horse that you can argue is my sort of bet. Topweight. Down in class. Conceeding weight to inferior horses rather than recieving it from better horses. Top on the AOR's. Top Stable and Jockey. Its pretty easy to see BALNAGORE as a potential bet in this race. There is only one thing that worries me. If you look at the record of high weights in this race it isnt great,. In 16 renewals horses with 9st 7lbs and more had a poor 1-42 record.
Thats pretty dismal for the class horse of the race and several beaten favouites lost. In fact the only
winner that managed it did so when odds on in a small 5 runner race when the market leaders were both high weights. This looks to me like a race where it isnt easy to carry weight. Even if you look in 16 races for horses with 9st 5lbs or more its still only a 2-60 record. Thats my biggest problem with BALNAGORE and why I want to side with W E S T E R N R O O T S . If you think about
it his 2nd place in a 0-76 isnt far behind Balnagore's anyway and he gets 13lbs weight from the Top weight as well. Given the weight issue here I fancy WESTERN ROOTS to win.


Salisbury 2.25


Wouldn want to oppose MOHAHAD myself despite him trading at odds on


Windsor 2.35

3/1 Willkandoo, 5/1 Addikt, 7/1 Charmel´s Lad, 8/1 Desiderio, Mr Hichens, 10/1 Stormbeam, 12/1 Star Pattern, 16/1 Dream Sea, Feasible, Monashee Rock, 20/1 Driven, 25/1 Mahadee, Nikolaievich, 33/1 Coole Dodger.

This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile. I Suppose you can probably take out the 4 rank outsiders. The 15 year history of this race tells you to ignore fillies like DREAM SEA and MONASHEE ROCK who have a 1-79 record. It tells you to oppose horses like STORMBEAM that have under 2 runs this season as they have a 0-72 record. It tells you to take on all horses with absences as no past winner was absent 7 weeks or more so CHARMEL'S LAD has a bit to prove. I suppose any shortlist would have to include these 6 runners - Willkandoo - Addikt - Desiderio - Mr Hichens - Star Pattern - Feasible. Interesting that there is a great record of horses like WILLKANDOO that have penalties in these races. Statistics in all similar races at this time of year suggest that if you have just won a 3yo handicap over a Mile or more - and you have a penalty for that as WILLKANDOO has then you are probably going to defy that penalty and win again. The exact record in all similar races is 15 winners from 31 runners. That means 48% of horses like WILLKANDOO win again which is a strong statistic. You can improve that statistic by taking out very lightly raced horses and horses that started 10/1 or more and that becomes a 14-22 record. Although a little unsteady in the market WILLKANDOO is pretty strong statistically. Felt it was too hard overall


Salisbury 3.30

6/4 Special Reserve, 3/1 Craigstown, 6/1 Sinaaf, 8/1 Purely By Chance, 10/1 Lobby, 12/1 Chioroscuro, Kijani, 66/1 Age Of Miracles.

Last nights Account bet was in a 10f maiden race just like this and was won by a handicapper dropping into a maiden which is exactly what SPECIAL RESERVE does today so its both topical as a race and also highly interesting because SPECIAL RESERVE comes from a 0-100 handicap and thats a serious drop in class even if he was beaten a long way in that race. On the plus side he hasnt much to beat. I Can question SINAAF as a filly coming from a juvenile maiden over 7f and PURE BY CHANCE as a filly down from 12f. The record of unraced horses ike CHIOROSCURO is 0-17 and this looks too tough for him. If the favourite doesnt win then it will probably be CRAIGSTOWN from Godolphin who takes advantage but he looks beatable. He would not have even been allowed to run in the 0-100 handicap SPECIAL RESERVE ran in last time. I think this is best left to SPECIAL RESERVE as Class 2 Handicap form is always interesting in maidens. I looked at every maiden race in June and July. I looked for every horse that came from Class 2 handicaps. There were 10 horses that did this and they had the following record - W 2 W 2 3 W W W 8 W . Thats a 6-10 record (60%) suggesting 6/4 about SPECIAL RESERVE isnt a bad option.


Salisbury 4.40

11/4 Hawridge King, 7/2 Trachonitis, 4/1 They All Laughed, 6/1 King´s Fable, 8/1 Wise Owl, 10/1 Optimus, 12/1 Trew Style, 16/1 Fascinatin Rhythm.

* There has been 7 renewals of this race
* All 7 races went to a specific type
* These were horses either aged 3 or 4
* These were horses that were unexposed and had under 20 runs
* We dont have any 3 year olds this year
* In 7 renewals horses aged 5 or more were 0-31
* In 7 renewals horses with 21 + career starts were 0-21
* If that is repeated today then one of two horses should win
* These are TRACHONITIS and FASCINATING RHYTHM

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