Thursday April 10th

No Account Bet

I have stayed with Folkestone today. I like the card a lot despite it presenting a challenging set of races. Very happy with my form. You watch me this year. I have had two good flat seasons behind me and many weaknesses and flaws are slowly being ironed out and the messages improve each
year. Not going to make any big predictions but just follow me this year in this opening paragraph. Account bets are priority and they will fall into place when they fall into place. Bet eveything that I suggest in this paragraph. Now the Flat is here I can look forward with relish to every race rather than dread and frustration and the Hunger is back and the standard and quality will improve again this year. I am now at a 7 year Peak and will improve again this year. Watch and Follow closely. I am rarely cocky and arrogant in messages as you know. It tempts fate and upsets people but I see things on the Flat in minutes that I dont see over jumps and my confidence is not misplaced. The theme of the season will be a masterclass. I Wont repeat such vitriolics for a long time now but you watch me this season and bet everything at the top of the message. Right todays business. Some tight handicaps.

The Nature of Folkestone is usualy tight knit handicaps with little margin between the runners and its not a track that always offers simple races. I will highlight 3 selections today. I have backed two 16/1 outsiders today. Have not had a lot on them but you do not need a lot on them. I would nominate these two horses as good value with reasonable chances and worthy of tenners or twenty's if your a £100 staker on my strongest bets. Both are worth a few quid without going mad. Todays selections are :


Todays Selections (Not Account Bets)

Folkestone 4.25 - FLIGHT DREAM 16/1
Folkestone 5.00 - ASHMOLIAN 16/1
Folkestone 2.40 - BAUNAGAIN 4/1 with a saver on Young Idahoe

Overall I feel FLIGHT DREAM will either make all and win and look impressive doing it or he will just not cope and you wont see him. That 16/1 is a big price for that risk. With ASHMOLIAN I feel he is value - I am confident the winner is on my shortlist of 3 in the race and I have gone with this horse as the price looks too big. With BAUNAGAIN I think he has a very solid overall profile in a race you can argue against several and I am happy to suggest a bet as long as you have the saver on Young Idahoe as well. He is clearly the most likely winner of the three but not account strength. Dont start overstaking because I have wrapped myself in the Flag today and had a good day yesterday. This is a tough card and stakes should be kept quite small today and at these prices its long odds on
that all 3 selections lose today.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G

Strong Message yesterday in my opinion. Interesting issues. I said that had WOTCHALIKE been an account bet he would have been each way so we would have broke level. I backed him win only so I did my money. The gamble won and got an easy lead up front whilst we were last and at the back. The winner got a vintage ride by McCoy and the kid gave ours too much to do. When so much money is down on horses like the favourite I get suspicious when horses drift and there could have been any kind of reason for that. RYANS FUTURE won well and pleased he did for those that backed him. Finally the other highlighted bet TIZZY BLUE won as well. Should really have been a nice profit on the day. My eye is in. In the right place at the moment and whilst as always frustratingly indecisive and over cautious as ever you know your in for a good year.


FOLKESTONE 2:10 - FOLKESTONE-RACECOURSE.CO.UK MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo) 5f

4/5 Northern Tour, 11/2 Sorrel Ridge, Strictly Royal, 25/1 Soul Sista, 50/1 Miss Belle Eve.

Not starting with a strong view in the opening race. NORTHERN TOUR has the experience and takes on mainly unraced horses but the Racing Post rightly say he is stoutly bred. You have to "Guess" whether you want to be with him or be against him. Much will depend on how good the unraced ones are but my judgement - or should I say my guess would be against him. Well now Celtic Commitment is a non runner I would revise that to say I could not bet NORTHERN TOUR at odds on. His breeding certainly is stoutely bred. In fact from several foals the dam has only had one juvenile run over 5f and he was hammered and most of her juveniles started their 2yo careers over 8f and one started over 10f on his debut. That would worry me especially as Folkestone's 5f track is marginally quicker than Doncasters where he opened his career losing by almost 10 lengths in the Brocklesby. I dont think the unraced horses can be sensibly sorted out on trainer stats.
I ran them all and felt they were all obvious and inconclusive. Given the choice of 4/5 aboiut NORTHERN TOUR or 5/4 about the other 4 runners I wouldnt want to play. No surprise if an unraced horse nicked this but I have no idea which if any that will be and no interest in having a bet in the race.

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FOLKESTONE 2:40 - ALEX AND PETER HATFIELD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

7/2 Baunagain, 4/1 Party In The Park, 9/2 Blue Jack, We Have A Dream, 8/1 Whiteoak Lady, 12/1 Copperwood, Kalligal, Our Acquaintance, 20/1 Helping Hand, Young Ivanhoe

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f for 0-75 rated horses
* There has been 5 renewals of this race
* Looking at these 5 renewals you can develop a rough "unsafe" idea
* You want a Male as all 26 fillies lost
* You want a horse thats very lightly raced
* Horses that had 6 or more runs had a 1-42 record in this race
* Ideally you want a horse thats run this year - 4 of the 5 winners had
* 4 of the 5 winners came from the All Weather as well
* Its also interesting that 3 of the 5 winners were beaten over 10 lengths last time out
* Based on these "Unsafe" trends the following 3 horses stand out
* BAUNAGAIN - COPPERWOOD - HELPING HAND
* Need to firm any trends up and cross check with other tracks
* There has been 50 of these races since 1993
* I want to oppose PARTY IN THE PARK
* Firstly as in 50 similar races Richard Hannon has a 0-31 record
* His juvenile horses are often overraced and dont train on as well as others
* I also dont like the fact he has already tasted Listed and Group class before
* In 50 similar races horses that had done that had a poor 1-42 record
* He also looks a fast ground bred horse and has no form on this ground
* PARTY IN THE PARK also fails later trends
* I want to oppose horses coming from 5f juvenile maidens
* Seasonal debutants score badly coming from 5f (3-90) but all 26 from 2yo maidens lost
* KALLIGAL fails that
* Horses that were maidens and had not won a race that came from 5f races last year were 0-41
* PARTY IN THE PARK and KALLIGAL also fail that
* WHITEOAK LADY is rejected as a filly with 3 runs
* Fillies are 0-26 in this race and they dont score well in the other 50 races
* Fillies with 3 runs had a 0-40 record in the other 50 similar races
* I dont want HELPING HAND - I think he would want faster ground
* He also looks badly handicapped and comes here after an absence and a poor run
* Happy to oppose COPPERWOOD trained by M Blanshard
* He has had 5 runs yet comes from a 3yo maiden
* M Blanshard has a dreadful record in 3yo Handicaps
* His runners are 1-198 with under 7 runs - they are 0-55 in April and 0-75 when coming from maidens
* I dont want OUR ACQUAINTANCE with 9 career starts and 1 run this year
* We know he is far more exposed than any past winner of this race
* Horses that had 1 run that season won several of the 50 similar races
* However none ran as badly as 8th on that 1st run of the year as he does
* He has beaten only 1 of his last 22 opponents in his last 3 races
* Male horses with 1 run that season had a 0-44 record when having 7 or more career starts
* That suggest his over exposure as a 2yo hurts him and I reject him in this race
* WE HAVE A DREAM is in the same boat as well
* He is a Male horse with 1 run this season with over 7 runs (0-44)
* With 10 runs he is also far more eposed than every past winner of this race
* YOUNG IVANHOE doesnt look good enough on his last 2 runs
* That said there has been office money for him and thats interesting
* He is not bad statistically and his stable are in form
* The Market molve temps me to shortlist YOUNG IVANHOE

SHORTLIST

* BAUNAGAIN - BLUE JACK - YOUNG IVANHOE
* I want to reduce this shortlist to 2 runners and take out BLUE JACK
* Not so keen on BLUE JACK with 3 runs and a 125 day absence
* His trainer Willie Muir doesnt do well in 3yo handicaps with horses with 3 runs
* He has a weak 2-77 career record - All 25 seasonal debutants lost and all 36 that didnt run within 4 weeks
* YOUNG IVANHOE Looks a sensible saver to me at a big price
* Statistically quite good and office money makes this a good iea
* I prefer BAUNAGAIN whose fit and has no statistical flaws
* His trainer states "he can win off 75" and sees him as well handicapped
* He also stayed "5f at Wolverhampton was too fast for him last time out"
* He states his optimum conditions are "6f and soft ground" and he gets that here
* Overall I feel BAUNAGAIN has the strongest chance

CONCLUSION

Watched some Videos. Ran some tough statistical tests and I am happy with BAUNAGAIN and feel he is the best horse in this race under these circumstances. Worth a modest bet. Saver on the 16/1 chance YOUNG IVANHOE

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FOLKESTONE 3:15 - WEATHERBYS BANK HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 6f

3/1 Golden Desert, 5/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 6/1 Andronikos, Bonnie Prince Blue, 8/1 Don Pele, Mujood, Nobilissima, 10/1 Hits Only Jude16/1 Shes Minnie, 25/1 Stamford Blue.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated older horses
* Folkestone has had 5 renewals of this race
* I dont see any great trends in these 5 races
* I therefore turn to 110 similar races at this time of year
* I dont want STAMFORD BLUE with 1 run this year and a heavy defeat
* I dont want DICKIE LE DVAOIR whose very hard to win with
* Exposed 4 year olds dont score well and he is down in trip and with Bottomweight may struggle
* Fillies have a miserable 9-302 record in the 110 similar races
* I cant have the 4yo filly NOBILISSIMA as 4yo fillies are just 3-169 in these races
* They are 0-88 when under 9st and she fails that and no filly was as exposed as her
* SHES MINNIE is also rejected as a exposed filly
* Fillies score badly and exposed ones having their seasonal debuts are 1-50
* I dont want MUJOOD despite him coming 3rd in this race last year
* He had a prep run last year and he doesnt have one this year
* He has no form first time out each season and the ground is not ideal for him
* It bothers me that DON PELE is the only horse stepping up from 5f races
* Looking at exposed seasonal debutants like him that come from 5f they have a 2-73 record
* Thats not a great record and there are other things I dont much like about him
* He has never won on ground as soft as this
* He has not won from his current handicap mark before either
* He has not yet ran close on any seasonal debut he has had
* I am also shocked how few winners this trainer has after an absence
* Not overkeen on HITS ONLY JUDE
* He has a months absence and has not enough soft ground form
* He is also on a career high mark and looks vulnerable to well handicapped horses
* BONNIE PRINCE BLUE has not ran in 8 weeks and that worries me
* So to does the ground as he ideally wants it quicker
* That said a top stable and he is not badly handicapped
* I Nearly shortlisted BONNIE PRINCE BLUE
* I am shortlisting GOLDEN DESERT and ANDRONIKOS
* ANDRONIKOS is clearly a horse thats been out of love with the game
* I am shortlisting him despite both positives and negatives about his chance
* In terms of the Negatives he is hard to win with and doesnt seem to put it all win
* He also has 2 runs this season and a 65 day break
* In 110 similar races horses that had 1 or 2 runs that year and a months break were 0-76
* There has to be an issue with that stat about Fitness and thats a genuine concern
* On the Positive side he has back class and is very well handicapped
* This is a career low mark of 82 and a year ago he was rated 99
* He is also a horse that wants a small field and I have to shortlist him with his class
* I like GOLDEN DESERT as an unexposed 4 year old seasonal debutant
* These horses have excellent records and his trainer also scores well with identical horses
* Being a seasonal debutant doesnt worry me - 4 of the 5 winners of this race were
* He could be well handicapped - His stable are in form - He is worth the risk

CONCLUSION

Reasonably happy with my shortlist of GOLDEN DESERT and ANDRONIKOS. Looking at the market GOLDEN DESERT is a little weak. He is 3/1 in the Racing Post yet generally 11/2 and you can argue that his chance depends on how fit and prepared he is with a 141 day absence. You could also argue that the drift may be regarding the fact he is not proven on ground this soft. On his profile and on his trainers stats I am not unduly worried He is drifting but the market needs to be considered. What may be a market drift early morning can change to being an afternoon gamble so you can not overreact to weak early morning
markets. I would see this as a race where I need a saver though. Therefore I will select GOLDEN DESERT and save on ANDRONIKOS in the race as both come out very well on my analysis.

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FOLKESTONE 3:50 - FOLKESTONE RACECOURSE FOR WEDDINGS MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 1m1f149y

13/8 Riverscape, 7/4 Pharaohs Queen, 100/30 Barring Decree, 20/1 The Hoofer, 33/1 L´Orage, Valferno, 66/1 Dancing Ellie.

This is an extended 9f Maiden race for fillies. I think its a 3 horse race. Certainly THE HOOFER Looks too exposed to me and is not easy to fancy rated just 56 despite the fact her trainer won this race in 2004 and 2006. I think its pretty tight between these runners. I suppose from a statistical point of view I should oppose BARRING DECREE based on the 32 similar races at this time of year. Horses that come from 3yomaidens score badly. In fact from 32 similar maidens 30 went to seasonal debutants which says it all. Horses like BARRING DECREE that drop in trip have poor 1-33 records. Those that did run this season had at least 3 runs. Any way you play around with the fact he has ran this year yet drops in trip and has only 1 run he comes out as easily the weakest profile from the fancied runners. I have to oppose him and I see this likely to be won by PHARAOHS QUEEN or RIVERSCAPE who are both seasonal debutants. I suppose if it came down to trainer records I would side with Ed Dunlop and PHARAOHS QUEEN but I am worried about the ground. Being by Bahri I strongly suspect she would want better ground even though the Dam placed on soft ground. PHARAOHS QUEEN wasnt exactly expensive either. I think it will be down to who handles the ground best - I suspect that may be RIVERSCAPE - and whether PHARAOHS QUEEN if not handling the ground has enough class to win this despite of the ground. If 8 runners do go to post then the each way doubles in play and that would be the biggest advantage in this race. In the absence of strong angles I will select the horse I feel is best on the ground and thats RIVERSCAPE.

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FOLKESTONE 4:25 - INVICTA MOTORS HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 1m1f149y

7/2 Amical Risks, 9/2 The Dagger, 5/1 Princelywallywogan, 7/1 Forfeiter, Ruling Reef, 8/1 Etoile D´Or, 12/1 Earl Kraul, Flight Dream, 14/1 Personify, 20/1 Muskatsturm, 33/1 Copper King, King Of Connacht, 100/1 Istibian.

* This is a 0-60 Handicap over an extended 9f
* Folkestone has had 20 very similar races at this time of year
* Trying to get a provisional shortlist from these 20 renewals
* All 20 winners had at least 7 career starts
* THE DAGGER - KING OF CONNACHT - ISTIBIAN have not
* Horses aged 4 that had 1 or 2 runs that season didnt score well (1-45)
* THE DAGGER has that against him
* Fillies aged 4 also scored badly and ETOILE D'OR fails that
* Fillies had a poor 1-63 record in the 20 Folkestone renewals
* RULING REEF and ETOILE D'OR are fillies
* No exposed horse came from 8f or shorter as COPPER KING does
* Horses from 8f with recent runs score badly
* Horses that came from all aged handicaps over 8f were 0-55
* PRINCELYWALLYWOGAN fails that
* Long absences like MUSKATSTURM are out
* This leaves an "Unsafe" shortlist of 4 horses
* Amical Risks - Forfeiter - Earl Kraul - Flight Dream - Personify
* Think we can improve on that and tighten it up
* There has been 82 similar races at all tracks
* I want to see if similar trends are confirmed at all tracks
* Horses that had under 7 career starts had a weak 3-158 record
* They were 0-66 when running this season
* They were 0-79 when coming from handicaps
* This takes out THE DAGGER - KING OF CONNACHT - ISTIBIAN
* Fillies were poor and won just 7 of the 82 races
* Fillies aged 4 had a horrible 1-153 record taking out ETOILE D'OR
* RULING REEF is harder to reject as she won over hurdles 5 days ago
* I have no statistics that show whether this is an advantage or a disadvantage
* Happy to take out the exposed horse COPPER KING as he is up in trip
* Horses that come from 8f handicaps this season have a poor 4-147 record
* They are 0-46 when they come from Class 6 handicaps
* They are 1-54 when carrying under 9st
* They are 1-81 when aged 5 or more
* PRINCELYWALLYWOGAN is therefore rejected
* COPPER KING is well handicapped and has been nibbled so I wouldnt rule him out
* I just didnt see any promise on his last run on video and that stops me shortlisting him
* Happy to confirm MUSKATSTURM has to go aged 9 without a run since 2004
* I dont want PERSONIFY both on the ground and as he has downgraded stables cheaply
* AMICAL RISKS is a 4 year old thats coming from 12 furlongs
* I really dont like that especially for a horse so inexperienced
* Horses aged 4 that dropped dow from 12f races had a poor 1-84 record
* I looked at all horses that came down from 12 races or further of all ages
* They were 0-38 with under 9 starts and technically AMICAL RISKS fails that
* I dont see AMICAL RISKS as a safe bet by any means
* EARL KRAUL is statistically fine but he is not for me
* This is because he has just downgraded stables from Gary Moore to Paul Blockley
* I think Blockley will want to run him down the field to see what he has got
* I certainly want to shortlist FLIGHT DREAM
* My problems comes with the National Hunt runners as they are hard to rate
* RULING REEF won a selling handicap 5 days ago and I have to respect that as she is fit
* FORFEITER comes from chases and I find it much harder to bet chasers

CONCLUSION

The money horse has clearly been PRINCELYWALLYWOGAN - On the one hand he fails a couple
of my trends in the race and I have not shortlisted him - On the other hand he looks well handicapped
on grass and it is not hard to see why he has been backed in the race. Wouldnt have him as a negative
and respect his chance now the money has come but that gamble is not enough to turn me off a 16/1
chance I feel is worth a risk. More about that in a second. I felt that despite being female the run 5 days
ago that RULING REEF had was enough to rate her a serious runner in the race. This race is a fascinating
mix of so many different types and some of these - not least the National Hunt horses - are impossible to
rate accurately on my statistics. I feel I have reasonable doubts about most of these - In the end I decided
to take a risk on 16/1 chance FLIGHT DREAM. I suppose its asking a lot but I am asking myself why he can
not win this race.

* Why cant FLIGHT DREAM win ?
* This is a 0-58 handicap for him
* He has just come from a 0-71 handicap where he had a genuine excuse
* He was beaten 11 lengths but ignore that - He went off far too fast that day
* Watch the race and see how far clear he went and you will see he had no chance keeping that pace up
* He folded as you would expect - He is far better than that run
* Look at the form of that race
* The winner (Rebellious Spirit) came out and won at Warwick
* The runner up (Royal Amnesty) came out and won at Wolverhampton
* The 7th (Street Life) came out and won at Nottingham
* Even the horses in 9th and 10th came out and placed
* Before that FLIGHT DREAM was getting beaten in maidens
* That is not surprising for a 5 year old and these races didnt suit him
* He is not overraced with 11 starts
* There are question marks at the trip but who knows what trip is best with him
* Perhaps he has not been suited by middle distances
* His sire stats suggest middle distances should not be an advantage
* It may be that 9f his last trip is ideal and we dont know as he went off too fast that day
* There are risks but I have found holes in almost all of these and I like his chance
* If he trys to make all again he could have these in trouble
* I have backed FLIGHT DREAM around 16/1 and suggest you also do that

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FOLKESTONE 5:00 - BETFAIR APPRENTICE TRAINING SERIES HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 1m4f

4/1 Icannshift, Street Life, 9/2 Top Spec, 11/2 General Flumpa, 6/1 Berry Hill Lass, 12/1 Ashmolian, 14/1 Compton Charlie, Meohmy, Sandokan, 20/1 Ardglass, 33/1 Tribiani.

* This is a 0-60 Apprentice Handicap over 12 furlongs
* There has been 30 similar races at this time of year
* That included the 6 renewals of this race
* Last year ICANNSHIFT won the race off a Mark of 50
* He was also 6th in the 2006 renewal when GENERAL FLUMPA was 3rd
* Not sure about ICANNSHIFT This year
* He wont get his favoured fast ground this year
* He does go on heavy so I wouldnt use that against him but his last run worries me
* Before winning last year he was 4th on his seasonal debut beaten about 4 lengths
* This year he was 14th - beaten 15 lengths and he is now an 8 year old
* I cant find a horse with 1 run that season either his age or running so badly in that run
* Despite winning last year I am against him
* None of the 30 winners came from 8f races as TRIBIANI does and she's a filly
* I didnt want a 4yo absent over 7 months like COMPTON CHARLIE
* 4 Year old fillies were 1-38 an BERRY HILL LASS has that against her
* Fillies score badly anyway with a 2-77 record
* They are 0-21 in the Folkestone race as well
* No fillies as inexperienced as MEOHMY or BERRY HILL LASS have won
* I dont want STREET LIFE as he is a 10 year old going up in trip
* I dont like these types at the best of times
* Horses aged 7 or more that did it had a weak 1-50 record
* They can win but its not something I like or want to bet on
* SANDOKAN - ARDGLASS are opposed with a long absence
* I would shortlist 3 horses in this race


* ASHMOLIAN - GENERAL FLUMPA - TOP SPEC


* 5 weeks ago ASHMOLIAN was 3rd and TOP SPEC 4th in the same Amateur race
* ASHMOLIAN has not run since but I think he is a big price at 16/1
* TOP SPEC has run since - when I fancied him at Doncaster on Lincoln Day
* He was beaten that day but many issues about why I liked him there still stand
* He is down in class - he has not been fit - Best on Grass - Very well handicapped

I think TOP SPEC has to be considered strongly here and he has a big weight advantage with ASHMOLIAN
who is also a horse I would want to consider as 16/1 is too big a price. TOP SPEC is an old rogue and you can
question him and ask yourself whether he is worth a bet or not as he saves a lot for himself and you could not
rely on him. On paper though I feel he has a strong chance. I cant rule out GENERAL FLUMPA but of the 3 that
I have shortlisted he made the least appeal. He is on the shortlist for a reason but the other pair excited me a bit
more. At the prices though I will select ASHMOLIAN to win at 16/1 and save on TOP SPEC around 5/1

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