Tuesday December 9th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Southwell 1.30

TADLIL 10/1 Each Way

One of those days where I am not happy with my timing and
after a losing bet yesterday I like to just take a step backwards and bat out the next day. Something has not clicked today and its hard to put my finger on what that something is.

I have gone with TADLIL today and I really do fancy him at
his price. He is far from a certainty but I think I have made a good cause for him and he shouldnt be that big. I like a lot of big priced horses today. It isnt a vintage message especially with the timing not quite right. I have not ruled out a big price shock with Mitchel Henry in the 1.20 at Sedgefield and he is one option in an each way double with Tadlil and those of you liking each way multiples may consider them both today. As for myself I just want to get straight with my timing and get today out of the way. One of those messages I have not nailed well enough but I like TADLIL more than enough to make a selection at a decent price.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Went down with the account bet SEA CLIFF yesterday. The horse jumped a path or appeared to jump something in the opening furlong and that lost him ground and more importantly momentum and he was never looking happy after that. He ran in snatches before finishing well in 6th place. He looked to me like he had a lot in hand at the end but was either too immature or unwilling to finish the race well enough. I'm Convinced he has the ability to win off his current handicap mark but he didnt do it when it mattered and we lost money on the bet. This is unlikely to be the last you hear about the horse as he has several very
interesting entries this week from Thursday onwards and whilst Its very rare for me to follow a losing bet on his next start I have a feeling that SEA CLIFF will be a significant horse this week for us.

Taking my foot off the Gas a little today. I dont want to cover many of the Southwell races as some of the races just dont appeal much to me and I am only looking at a few National Hunt races as well



N A T I O N A L H U N T


FONTWELL 12.40

3/1 Sufad, 7/2 Art Exhibition, 7/1 House Of Lords, 7/1 Sawpit Solitaire, 8/1 Kashmina, 9/1 Dantari, 10/1 Morestead, 12/1 Harveys Spirit, 16/1 Mistress Eva, 40/1 Capeleira, 50/1 Poppy Gregg.

SELECTION - KASHMINA E/W

Interesting juvenile hurdle. I would personally want to oppose the lighter raced horses. HOUSE OF LORDS is unraced and out. ART EXHIBITION is also unraced and has a speed pedigree so may not stay this far as a 3yo. DANTARI is out with just 1 previous race. HARVEYS SPIRIT is out as
a lightly raced filly as is MISTRESS EVA. I dont have a great view of the rest. SUFAD's stable have won this twice and owned by Harry Findlay could end up at any price. Hard to rate the fancied fillies KASHMINA and SAWPIT SOLITAIRE who comes from a hot little race. I wouldnt rule out
MORESTEAD either as his stable have twice won this race and he comes from a good trial race. He could easily sneak a place at a decent price. I feel one of Sufad - Sawpit Solitaire - Kashmina - Morestead will win. I think
that MORESTEAD is more likely to try and scrape a place than actually win the race. I like KASHMINA's chance. I have looked at all juvenile hurdles like this. Females that placed 1-2-3-4 last time out having had 3 runs as she has had a 4-8 record and I see her recent runs as an advantage and around 7/1 she must have a reasonable chance of winning this e/w

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SEDGEFIELD 1.20

SENDRIG CONSTRUCTION MAIDEN CHASE (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m3f

11/10 Tank Top, 5/4 Belon Gale, 10/1 Ajay, 20/1 Pre Token, 25/1 Mitchel Henry, 33/1 The Artful Fox, 100/1 Treehouse, 100/1 Turbulent Flight.

SELECTION - MITCHEL HENRY

* This is a Maiden Chase over 3m 3f
* There has been 72 Maiden Chases over longer than 3m before
* Thats 72 races at any time of year on any track
* Only 4 of the 72 winners came from 2m 4f or shorter
* They were all lightly raced with under 7 starts
* Since 1997 that record became 0-84
* This statistic is likely to be broken today
* Both TANK TOP and BELON GALE have that to overcome
* So to does AJAY -PRE TOKEN - TREEHOUSE
* Horses that come from Novice races over 20f or less were 1-104
* AJAY fails that and looks vulnerable
* He is also more exposed than any past horse coming from 20f
* PRE TOKEN is also more exposed than any trip jumper
* Of the 2 market leaders I prefer TANK TOP
* BELON GALE is a 5 year old and that worries me
* No 5 year old has ever won a maiden chase over this far before
* TANK TOP has the stronger chance for me but isnt the selection
* I dont want a horse up from 2m 4f at a short price
* PRE TOKEN does interest me in this race
* There has been 9 renewals of this race
* All 9 winners of this race were aged 6 or 7
* All 9 winners of this race ran over 21f or more last time
* PRE TOKEN only fails one serious angle in 2m 4f form
* He is not statistically perfect but I still respect him
* 5 of the 9 winners failed to finish on their previous start as he did
* PRE TOKEN is trained by Ferdy Murphy
* Murphy has a brilliant record in long distance maiden hurdles
* He has a 8-19 record and 4-12 record at Sedgefield
* He looks the second string behind his stablemate AJAY
* I am not convinced about that to be honest
* Behind my selection I would only consider betting two others
* These are PRE TOKEN and ARJAY
* There has been 9 renewals of this race
* All 9 winners of this race were aged 6 or 7
* All 9 winners of this race ran over 21f or more last time
* MITCHELL HENRY is the one horse that can claim that
* MITCHEL HENRY has just the right sort of profile
* He also comes from the same race as last years winner
* We were on Carry Duff last year when he won this race
* There wasnt much to reccomend him before the race
* I would take a chance on MITCHEL HENRY


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FONTWELL 2.40

7/4 Missoula, 11/2 Balthazar King, 8/1 King Edmund, 8/1
Mad Jack Duncan, 8/1 The Wedding Horse, 12/1 Long Hop,
12/1 Tinchel, 14/1 Near The Water, 14/1 Rear Gunner, 16/1
Jordan, 20/1 Bally Sands, 20/1 Nicobar, 40/1 Fruity O'Rooney, 50/1 Classical Act, 66/1 Cosmic Messenger, 66/1 Toomuchinformation.

SELECTION - BALTHAZAR KING E/W

This is interesting as whilst MISSOULA is a classy flat handicapper she is also an inexperienced mare in a Novice Hurdle as this explains

* December has seen 348 Novice Hurdles between 17f and 22f
* Mares that came from Hurdle races won 17 of the 348 races
* With 1 run like MISSOULA they had a 0-82 record
* Mares like MISSOULA that were unplaced last time were 1-346
* Mares that hadnt won before were 4-372
* Mares absent 7 weeks or more were 1-177

Obviously those numbers are disastrous but MISSOULA will have more raw ability than the majority of mares that come hurdling and has to be respected but I wouldnt want an inexperienced female if she had an absence as well so I would be keen to take her on with something each way. MAD JACK DUNCAN didnt do enough for me last time in a Maiden hurdle beaten 52 lengths. I wouldnt want LONG HOP or KING EDMUND from a Bumper and certainly not JORDAN as a filly from a Bumper. THE WEDDING HORSE is unraced so hard to judge and this stable dont have a brilliant first time out record. NICOBAR is out as a 7yo debutant. TINCHEL has been off two seasons. Given all the options I would have to
argue that BALTHAZAR KING had the most solid profile and
was the natural each way bet against the favourite

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S O U T H W E L L


SOUTHWELL 12.30

MEMBERSHIP AT SOUTHWELL GOLF CLUB HANDICAP
(CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 1m3f

5/2 Fortunella, 7/2 Karmest, 11/2 Man Of Gwent, 11/2 Transmission, 9/1 Classical Rhythm, 12/1 Bed Fellow, 12/1 King's Icon, 16/1 Tykie Two, 33/1 Bobering, 33/1 Lawyer To World.

SELECTION - MAN OF GWENT

This is a 0-65 handicap over 11 furlongs. I strongly considered Topweight MAN OF GWENT in this race as he may be better class. On the Negative side I didnt like his 34 day absence or his heavy defeat last time - and I could
not find a similar winner in similar races. On the positive side the similar races were a small sample size and far from satisfactory. The way I looked at this
was that MAN OF GWENT has placed in a 0-85 handicap off a mark of 74. Since then he has dropped to a rating of 65 - a Career low mark. Today he has to beat a 0-64 field and has slipped in very nicely as the class horse conceeding
weight to inferior horses. When you consider his highest rated danger is the 64 rate KARMEST who is a filly that comes from an 8f race to a 11f race and no filly has done that in these races - then after her TRANSMISSION is the next highest rated horse off 58 then MAN OF GWENT is facing a far easier class of race than he usually does. This is winable. CLASSICAL RHYTHM has to step up from a Mile which is tough. TRANSMISSION hasnt won a race. We dont
know if KING´S ICON stays and he comes here well beaten last time and from an inconsistent stable. FORTUNELLA may improve but she is only a lightly raced 3 year old filly and the race she won was a 0-52 contest last time. I much
prefer the 0-85 MAN OF GWENT ran in two runs ago. His opponents that day were all rated 72 or more and he was beaten just 7 lengths. None of his opponents that had would be allowed anywhere near this race which I see as
no more than a 0-58 contest. MAN OF GWENT surely has the ability to win and outclass these rivals and he would be the one I would bet in this race.


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SOUTHWELL 1.30

HOSPITALITY AT SOUTHWELL RACECOURSE
HANDICAP (DIV I) (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-60) 6f

7/2 Westwood, 5/1 Hamaasy, 11/2 The Geester, 15/2 Tadlil, 8/1 The Little Fizzer, 10/1 Double Carpet, 10/1 Soba Jones, 12/1 Swallow Forest, 16/1 Scruffy Skip, 16/1 Woqoodd, 20/1 Everything, 25/1 Ducal Regancy Red, 33/1 Kissi Kissi, 33/1 Sandies Choice.

SELECTION - TADLIL E/W

* This is a 0-60 handicap for all aged horses
* There's been 100 similar handicaps on sand around this time
* KISSI KISSI is out as a mare with 1 run since Febuary
* SANDIES CHOICE is out as a filly absent 202 days
* Fillies that had a months absence had a 2-98 record in 100 races
* None were as exposed as EVERYTHING and shes been off 75 days
* I dont want WOQOODD as an older horse absent 131 days
* He may also find his draw hurts him on recent evidence here
* I can only find 1 older horse absent 10 weeks or more
* SOBA JONES has to be opposed aged 11 absent 290 days
* I looked at every 5f 6f 7f handicaps since 1992
* There were 9815 of these handicaps
* Thats any class - any time of year - any track between 5f-7f
* Horses aged 9 + that were absent 7 months or more were 1-223
* Thats a huge sample size - Older horses dont overcome absences
* DUCAL REGANCY RED is weak as a filly from a claimer
* In 100 races 3 year old fillies have a poor 4-180 record
* Those with 13 + runs were 1-84 and look vulnerable
* THE LITTLE FIZZER fails that
* 3 year old fillies that ran within 2 weeks were 1-73
* THE LITTLE FIZZER fails that as well
* SWALLOW FOREST is out as a 3yo filly from a 5f race
* DOUBLE CARPET cant be ruled out but isnt for me
* He looks underraced with 6 runs this year and 1 since September
* For an exposed 5 year old I would rather have seen more rus
* I dont want to shortlist HAMAASY without a recent run
* There is a good chance I have underestimated HAMAASY
* Maybe should have shortlisted him

SHORTLIST

* SCRUFFY SKIP - WESTWOOD - TADLIL - THE GEESTER

* I dont have a problem with SCRUFFY SKIP
* Several 3 year olds with very similar profiles won
* WESTWOOD has a similar profile as well and looks fine
* TADLIL is shortlisted with a solid recent run
* THE GEESTER comes from 5f and I dont like that
* That said several winners did and many were like him
* I have to shortlist him statistically
* My gut feeling is SCRUFFY SKIP will struggle at 6f
* Expect him behind early and ridden along running in snatches
* His best chance comes if they go off too fast
* TADLIL was a decent 2nd over this course and distance 2 runs ago
* That was creditable as he was having his first run on the surface
* TADLIL also had a 2 months absence that day which must of hurt
* He has since run a decent 4th at Kempton
* That was from a bad draw as well
* Have a look at TADLIL as he has not won since August 2006
* That was off a mark of 69 at Redcar
* TADLIL then had a 20 month absence from the track
* He wasnt seen until April 2008
* TADLIL has ran 12 times since that long break
* His first 7 runs were all well beaten
* He clearly had not regained form or fitness
* TADLIL has ran far better in his last 5 runs
* He is looking like a horse running into form now he is fitter
* His stable are in great form considering their long term record
* Since his last win his rating has dropped from 69 to 50
* Surely this horse is going to win soon
* Dont worry about his Draw in stall 14
* That may not be as bad a draw as it looks
* The last 4 handicaps here over 6f all went to high draws
* Winning stalls were 12 of 13, 8 of 12, 13 of 13, 14 of 14
* TADLIL E/W - must have a great chance of winning this race

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SOUTHWELL 2pm

I would have opposed RED CAPE and OBE ROYAL with the absences and CALMDOWNMAITE as he comes from a 5f claimer. I respect both CAME BACK and BAZGUY but CAME BACK comes from 5f and I cant find a 3 year old that won a similar race from a claimer. I would just consider BALLYCROY BOY as possibly being the strongest runner statistically

SOUTHWELL 2.30

Dont rule out SIMPLE JIM at 16/1 in this. I could crab about a few of these. PERRTEMPS NETWORKS can win but he has only had 1 run since April. ZAFFEU wouldnt interest me with a 253 day break as a 7 year old. FLAME CREEK is 12 now and ageing. I did not like the fact that CALCULATING had a heavy defeat just 8 days ago. EL DIEGO has just 1 run this year. SIMPLE JIM could nick a weak race like this
at 16/1. I think the lighter raced 4 year old has every chance in this.

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SOUTHWELL 3.00

SOUTHWELL HOSPITALITY AT SOUTHWELL RACECOURSE
HANDICAP (DIV II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-60) 6f

4/1 Mister Incredible, 11/2 Blakeshall Quest, 6/1 Tanley, 7/1 Dark Champion, 7/1 Night Prospector, 8/1 This Ones For Eddy, 10/1 Gone'N'Dunnett, 14/1 Meancog, 14/1 Myriola, 14/1 Varinia, 20/1 Foxy Jane, 25/1 Nautical, 33/1
Firewalker, 50/1 Orchestration.

* This is a 0-60 handicap for all aged horses
* There's been 100 similar handicaps on sand around this time
* ORCHESTRATION is out aged 7 absent 186 days
* Fillies with under 9 career starts were 1-65
* FOXY JANE fails that and has also been off 126 days
* Fillies that had a months absence had a 2-98 record in 100 races
* VARINIA is out as a 3yo filly absent 100 days
* In 100 races 3 year old fillies have a poor 4-180 record
* Those with 13 + runs were 1-84 and look vulnerable
* MYRIOLA fails that and makes little appeal
* FIREWALKER has to go as a 3yo filly from a 5f maiden
* TANLEY is a 3yo that comes from a 5f race
* 5 winners did that aged 3 but none as exposed as him
* None also came from a claimer as he has to
* NAUTICAL doesnt look ready to win at the moment
* He is a 10 year old and only 1 of the 100 winners were aged 9+
* GONE´N´DUNNETT also fails that aged 9
* Couldnt rule him out but he doesnt look particularly strong
* He was also beaten in this race last year
* DARK CHAMPION is out as an 8 year old down 2f in trip
* NIGHT PROSPECTOR is aged 8 and comes from a 5f race
* The 2007 winner (Trinculo) showed that could be done
* That said NIGHT PROSPECTOR is drawn 13
* That may not be as bad a draw as it looks
* The last 4 handicaps here over 6f all went to high draws
* Winning stalls were 12 of 13 , 8 of 12 , 13 of 13 , 14 of 14
* NIGHT PROSPECTOR might well be worth shortlisting
* BLAKESHALL QUEST is a mare aged 8
* No Mare aged 6 or more won any of the 100 races
* She has been absent 26 days and has ran twice since July
* I am not convinced she is ready to win this race
* MISTER INCREDIBLE ran well last time but I dont want him
* He has ran just one race since March and thats a poor sign
* MEANCOG is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 100 races fillies that did that were 1-71 so she is out
* THIS ONES FOR EDDY has a solid chance and was unlucky last time
* I have found several 3yo winners that were maidens as he is

SHORTLIST

* NIGHT PROSPECTOR - THIS ONES FOR EDDY
* Split your stake with a win bet on both

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