1 Account Bet

Chester 4.30 - Split Stake Bet


(10) COIN OF THE REALM 13/2
£40 Each Way


(5) MIKAO 12/1 ( SAVER)
£20 Win


£100 Staked on the race

COIN OF THE REALM 7/1 - Corals -Ladbrokes -Bet365 -Totesport - Betfred -Skybet
COIN OF THE REALM 13/2 - Hills - VC - Betdirect - Blus Sq
MIKAO 14/1 - Ladbrokes - Corals Hills - Vc Bet365
MIKAO 12/1 - Stan J - Skybet - Betfred - Totesport

This is the first message this week that has excited me. Wouldnt want to artificially hype up expectation and good messages dont always mean winning days but I do like the message and the cards and my biggest problem has been an embarrasment of choice and which bets are my best. Gone with COIN OF THE REALM each way to almost full stakes but had a saver on MIKAO who "just" became the saver ahead of
the only horse that scares me other than that (Spirit of Adjisa). Taken the view that as COIN OF THE REALM has already beaten Spirit of Adjisa and has improved and
won since I should turn my attentions to MIKAO as the saver as he has significant back class and has a massive chance if he is as fit as I hope he is.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Saturday had 3 selections. I thought a winner was asking a bit but OBSERVATORY STAR won early (7/1 to 11/2) making sure we had a winning day. It was downhill after that but we couldnt lose the advantage we had. The Stewards Cup turned out to be a bit too ambitious and the 3rd selection turned out to have no chance from the draw and that was a foolish choice in hindsight. In the end though we nicked a bit on the day and I would have taken one winner from
three had you offered me that at the start of the day.


M A R K E T R A S E N

Just a couple of brief words about some of the Non Handicaps. Such a long message today so dont want to spend too long here. In the SELLING RACE at 2pm its quite
interesting that 4 year olds are 0-26 in this race - and in all other similar sellers they have a poor 1-65 record. This suggests the joint favourite Gamma Velorum and others
like Reflective Glory - Art Gallery - Moon Phase should be avoided. With Kenmore a sprinter and a doubtful stayer this should narrow it down if you want a bet. I would
imagine LIBERTY SEEKER or ALEEMDAR if the ground isnt bad should win.

I wouldnt oppose Southern Regent in the second race at 2.30. I wouldnt want to risk My Mirasol and unraced 4 year old against him. I was gobsmacked the other day when
a hurdle race was won by a son of Primo Valentino (Robert The Brave) as this sire is just not a stamina sire at all and I cant have MY MIRASOL staying this far on his debut.
You only have to look at the dam (Distinctly Blu) to see a pure sprinting pedigree as are all his siblings. He looks a non stayer to me.

In the next race a Novice Hurdle over 2m 6f all I would say is that Saltrash has a poor profile as a 7 year old with 1 run taking a step up from 16f to 22f and I would also have to oppose the Bumper runners Cilrhiwviv and Run Forest Run.

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N E W B U R Y

NEWBURY 3.50 - BLACKMORE BUILDING CONTRACTORS HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-85) 5f34y

7/2 Cheveton, 6/1 Cape Royal, Lochstar, Playful, 8/1 Judge ´n Jury, Tony The Tap, 12/1 Bahamian Ballet, Malapropism, 14/1 Espy, 16/1 Godfrey Street, Hereford Boy, 25/1 Brandywell Boy.

This was the only race I liked at Newbury and I have to go with TONY THE TAP. This race in the past has been
absolutely dominated by horses that had a very recent race and there is an astonishing record from horses that ran
in TONY THE TAP's Goodwood race 3 days ago. The winners in 2006 , 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001 all
came from that race. I think I can get CHEVETON beaten with 3 weeks break and see him as "unimpressive" from
a statistical point of view. I dont like the absences of ESPY - PLAYFUL - GODFREY STREET. I feel I can get
BRANDYWELL BOY and HEREFORD BOY beaten. I respect MALAPROPISM but he has twice failed in this
race and may just be more of a place chance than a win chance. JUDGE N JURY and CAPR ROYAL have fine
chances with a recent run but they have class 5 handicap form and TONY THE TAP has just run a blinder in a far
better race and the perfect trial race. LOCHSTAR is a huge danger despite having just 2 runs and a 430 day absence.
Whilst quick returners are brilliant in this race we did have a seasonal debut winner last year and LOCHSTAR is the
onje with pretensions to be better class. He must have had a setback but this is a horse Balding has insisted we follow
this year and says he is well handicapped and will win a big handicap and no need to elaborate on his breeding which
is purple to say the least. I would sum my feelings about this race in a few lines

* Feel TONY THE TAP is an outstanding bet
* Worried about stall 1 - I would change that if I could
* Worried whether he is reliable enough for an account bet
* Feel at his odds he has to be a must bet
* Feel I have to save on LOCHSTAR at his price
* Andrew Balding is a statbusting trainer
* He has bust my stats before and I feel I have to save
* Cape Royal worries me and could win but I prefer mine
* I just feel he achieved far more than the other class 5 runners
* TONY THE TAP is the selection
* Saver on Lochstar

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C H E S T E R


CHESTER 2.20 - JEWSON BRITISH HEART FOUNDATION EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (2yo) 7f2y

15/8 Citizenship, 11/2 Lady Salama, 6/1 Proclaim, 7/1 Flintlock, Lucky Dan, 16/1 Game Roseanna, Ipdipdoo
Shifting Gold, Welsh Passion, 25/1 Our Apolonia, 33/1 Kristopher James, Redolini, 50/1 Talsarnau.

* This is a 7f maiden
* The favourite CITIZENSHIP is drawn 12 of 13
* Since 2003 Chester have had 65 races over this trip
* Thats in handicaps and all other races
* Stall 12 and over were 2-43
* You have to ignore one of those as it was a Flip start with no stalls
* The other race was a short head win in a bunch finish and plenty of trouble
* However when you just consider Non Handicaps the draw advantage is worse
* These races are mainly poor horses or inexperienced maidens
* Since 2002 Chester has ran 37 non handicaps over 7f
* Horses drawn 8 or more had a 1-76 record
* That was Portodora in a race where the favourite was also drawn high
* I think its best to oppose CITIZENSHIP from that draw
* I would oppose all those drawn 8 or more
* I want to oppose FLINTLOCK from Gosdens
* He has been beaten over 10 lengths last time on his 2nd start
* August has seen 213 of these maiden races
* Horses that had 2 or more runs beaten over 10 lengths in maidens struggled
* They had a dreadful 2-188 record since 1993
* When they came from 7f maidens they were just 1-99
* They have far less improvement from runs 2 to 3 than they do runs 1-2
* They have far less improvement when having already done the trip
* Thats why they rarely overcome such defeat
* SHIFTING GOLD is in the same boat with 2 runs and a heavy defeat
* IPRIPDOO is out as unraced horses are 0-36 in this race
* GAME ROSEANNA is out being by Mind Games
* That sires only has 2 juvenile winners over this far and its too much too soon
* Since 1993 there has been 213 of these 7f maidens at all tracks
* Horses that had 7 weeks or more off the track only won 5 of the 23 races
* LUCKY DAN fails that
* LUCKY DAN also comes from an Auction race
* Yes he was running well before he unseated his rider
* But that was an auction race and not a traditional maiden
* Horses that come from Auction races score a lot less than others
* LUCKY DAN was also bottomweight in that race and getting allowances
* He only had 8st 3lbs and had a 7lbs claimer
* The form hasnt worked out either
* My guess is he will need the run and lack the class
* This looks to be between 2 horses to me
* LADY SALAMA - PROCLAIM
* On their profiles I prefer LADY SALAMA
* She is drifting - 11/2 in the paper and 11/1 on Betfair
* Always a worry but it may be some feel she didnt stay 7f her last time
* I dont agree with that and feel the weights beat her
* She was conceeding a lot of weight to the other runners
* She was giving at least 8lbs to all her rivals and jockeys claims as well
* I think that was a pretty hard task for a 2yo filly with 1 previous run
* Well beaten on her debut at York but a hot race and the forms good
* The drift is a worry - but assuming shes there to do her best ....
* LADY SALAMA looks a really big price to me at 11/1
* I would suggest a bet on LADY SALAMA and saver on PROCLAIM

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CHESTER 2:50 - CHESHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL FOSTER NURSERY (CLASS 4) (2yo) 6f18y

13/8 Red Baron Dancer, 5/1 Hawkspur, 6/1 Alphabeth, 7/1 Aahaygirl, 15/2 River Dee, 12/1 Kingswinford
14/1 Impressible, 20/1 Drachenfels, 25/1 Lunar Romance.

* This is a 6f Nursery
* There has been 9 renewals of this race
* There has been 129 similar races at this time of year
* I have looked at the profiles of every runner through 129 similar races
* ALPHABETH and AAHAYGIRL dont interest me
* Horses coming from 5f races when beaten heavily score very badly
* Horses like AAHAYGIRL beaten heavily in Pattern class havent won
* Horses that came from 5f maidens were reasonably ok
* However none managed to win without a 1-2-3-4 placing last time
* HAWKSPUR only just fails that but he does
* IMPRESSIBLE fails it comfortably
* KINGSWINFORD is a bit exposed to overcome a heavy defeat
* DRACHENFELS was beaten too far for me
* These horses have ideal and strong profiles
* RED BARON DANCER - RIVER DEE - LUNAR ROMANCE
* RIVER DEE is drawn 9 but that doesnt worry me
* This is a good race for high drawn horses (Stalls 9 and 10 recent wins)
* LUNAR ROMANCE is the outsider but dont count her out
* Lightweights have a strong record in the race
* She only has 7st 12lbs and a 7lbs claimer
* I fancy one of these three to win
* RED BARON DANCER - RIVER DEE - LUNAR ROMANCE
* RED BARON DANCER is the "Most likely winner"
* RIVER DEE the most interesting on paper but drifting badly
* LUNAR ROMANCE is 33/1 and good value in a small field
* Suggest a minimum stakes e/w bet
* Bottomweights are great in this race and the claimer helps as well
* LUNAR ROMANCE e/w at 33/1

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CHESTER 3:25 - CHILDRENS ADVENTURE FARM QUEENSFERRY STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f18y

3/1 Damika, 9/2 Brave Prospector, 5/1 Que Piensa Cat, 11/2 Green Manalishi, 14/1 Burnwynd Boy, Eisteddfod, Look Busy, 16/1 Aahayson, Angus Newz, 20/1 Invincible Force, Methaaly, Reverence, 25/1 Carcinetto, 66/1 Requisite.

* The Queensferry Stakes is a Listed Race over 6 furlongs
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 42 similar listed sprints like this in July and August
* I think the trends in this race are pretty poor
* Winning profiles have come from many different profiles
* I would rule out horses drawn 9 or more such as these -
* Eisteddfod - Aahayson - Reverence - Look Busy - Burnwynd Boy - Requisite
* I am against last years winner GREEN MANALISHI
* Dont like the fact he comes from a 5f race with 3 runs this year
* Horses that did that had a 0-29 in 42 similar races
* He had more runs when winning last year and a more recent run
* She also had a weaker field last year with just 2 runners rated 100+
* This year she has 8 opponents rated 100 + and a bigger field
* 3 year olds that come from 5f have a weak 1-30 record
* LOOK BUSY fails that and also has that bad draw
* I dont want INVINCIBLE FORCE coming from a 5f handicap
* Last years winner did that but he was the only one in 42 similar races
* I do think last years race was a weak renewal anyway
* CARCINETTO looks out of her depth
* METHAALY has too much to do against 100 + rivals
* Just 3 runs ago he was rated just 68
* I just feel ANGUS NEWZ lacks the class
* His defeat in listed class recently was in an inferior race
* I Would think this is between 3 horses
* DAMIKA - BRAVE PROSPECTOR - QUE PIENSA CAT
* QUE PIENSA CAT is impossible to read
* Argentinian horse now with Godolphin and just 3 career runs abroad
* QUE PIENSA CAT hasnt run in 485 days
* She would also be the least experienced past winner
* I feel inclined to oppose her because of the absence/inexperience
* She is also drifting badly suggesting she needs the race
* DAMIKA clearly has the ability to win this race
* Two problems with him
* No similar race went to a horse coming from a 7f handicap (0-13)
* He also has no Chester experience
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR comes from the same race as the 2003 winner
* I have no problem with his profile
* He has no Chester experience but My guess is he will be ok
* Most of his siblings loved this track
* I would prefer his stable to be in better form
* I just favour BRAVE PROSPECTOR as I feel he's bred to excel here

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CHESTER 4.00 - HALLIWELL JONES BMW - MILE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-95) 7f122y

9/2 Violent Velocity, 5/1 South Cape, 7/1 Barons Spy, 9/1 Guilded Warrior, 10/1 Daaweitza, Goodbye Mr Bond, The Kiddykid, 12/1 Mister Hardy, 14/1 Danzig Fox, 16/1 Medici Pearl, My Gacho, Roman Maze, Turfshuffle, 25/1 Obezyana.

* This is a 7f 122 yard handicap for horses rated 0-95
* Pretty inconclusive set of trends in this race
* I think all of these have some sort of problems
* I would rule out TURFSHUFFLE and ROMAN MAZE
* Neither have a fit profile
* Horses aged 3 are weak like Danzing Fox and Mister Hardy (1-29)
* No past winner had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-40)
* Daaweitza -South Cape - The Kiddykid -Mister Hardy fail that
* The 6f runners are poor like Mister Hardy - My Gacho
* Older horses aged 8 or more are weak like Goodbye Mr Bond
* Horses coming from heavy defeats like Barons Spy are poor
* 7lbs claimers are poor as well - Violent Velocity and South Cape fail that
* Medici Pearl is the only filly and has the widest draw as well
* Fillies and high numbers are fine but high drawn fillies worry me
* Only OBEZYANA who ran yesterday escaped a negative
* OBEZYANA hasnt done that well with stall 10 though
* I would be carefull with the draw here
* I wouldnt assume high numbers cant win
* This is an unusual trip here and different from any other trip
* In Apprentice races low numbers are awful in these races
* This isnt an Apprentice race but something worries me
* VIOLENT VELOCITY and SOUTH CAPE are drawn low
* However both are Apprentice ridden
* My research shows you do not want a 7lbs claimer drawn low
* I think its a Mess statistically so broadening my search
* Looking at 285 similar races in August at 7.5f and 8f since 1991
* Happy to oppose horses from 6f
* They score badly and won just 6 of the 285 races
* MISTER HARDY and MY GACHO are opposed
* Horses aged 8 or more won only 10 of the 285 races
* None had the absence ROMAN MAZE has
* Horses aged 8 that didnt run within 2 weeks were poor
* They won just 2 of the 285 races
* That puts me off GOODBYE MR BOND - THE KIDDYKID
* Since 2001 there has been 125 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more had a 1-113 record
* Feel myself wrapping myself up in knots here
* Going to make a shortlist based on a mixture of trends
* Both in this race and other similar races
* I dont see why VIOLENT VELOCITY should be favourite
* Up in class and a career high mark and didnt even win last time
* My shortlist would be these
* GUILDED WARRIOR - DAAWEITZA - OBEZYANA - SOUTH CAPE -BARONS SPY
* I like GUILDER WARRIOR a lot
* In 2 of his last 3 races at Chester and Warwick he had bad draws
* He then ran well at York last time
* He just has not been lucky with the draw again
* I will give him the benefit of the doubt and select him to win

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CHESTER 4:30 - MACMILLAN CANCER SUPPORT HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-85) 1m4f66y

9/2 Prelude, 6/1 Cheshire Prince, Penang Cinta, 7/1 Command Marshal, Crow Wood, 15/2 Coin Of The Realm, 14/1 Spirit Of Adjisa, 20/1 Bajan Parkes, Bull Market, Mikao, 33/1 Risk Runner.

* This is a 12f handicap for horses rated 0-85
* Chester has 9 renewals of this race
* There has been 171 similar races run at other tracks
* What you have here are 9 exposed horses and 2 unexposed
* COIN OF THE REALM and SPIRIT OF ADJISA are unexposed
* I think most exposed horses have issues
* COMMAND MARSHALL has to come down from 2 miles
* No winner of this race dropped in trip
* Only 3 of the 171 similar races went to horses that did that
* CROW WOOD is a 9 year old absent 506 days
* Thats a massive negative and he also has 10st weight
* In 171 races exposed horses that come from 10f races are weak
* They have a 3-60 record and none did it in this race
* PENANG CINTA - CHESHIRE PRINCE have that against them
* BULL MARKET has also has that against him
* RISK RUNNER has a nasty absence
* BAJAN PARKES has a nasty absence and ran badly last time
* My point is these are exposed horses all with various problems
* Stay with the UNEXPOSED horses here

* COIN OF THE REALM has 5 runs and won a maiden last time
* COIN OF THE REALM is the big improver
* Look at the 9 renewals of this race
* Look at how 3 year old colts got on
* When they had under 9 runs they had a 4-8 record
* This race strongly favours unexposed 3 year olds
* The record of these horses is W W W W 2 2 3 8
* Two runs ago there was a Windsor handicap
* COIN OF THE REALM was 2nd and run well
* SPIRIT OF ADJISA was 6th but missed the break
* SPIRIT OF ADJISA is better off at the weights today
* COIN OF THE REALM has since won a maiden and thats key
* He is improving at a race of knots and could improve past these
* If he does that he will improve a brilliant 3yo record
* I Have to go with COIN OF THE REALM to improve past these
* I am going each way COIN OF THE REALM
* And a win bet on MIKAO as saver
* MIKAO was 4th here last september in a listed handicap
* That was a 0-101 and far better than this race
* He has the class - loves it here - and could
* Issue with him is simple
* He is a 7 year old with 4 runs this year
* Is he fit enough to show his best - usually they want 5 + runs
* However - he didnt stay last time
* There is no way a "Tagula" could win over 14f on heavy ground
* He has dropped 12lbs in the weights this year
* He ran very well up to the 12f point last time and isnt far off full fitness
* His previous 3 races are easily put down to lack of fitness
* He has to be saved on

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