Friday May 30th

No Account Bet

Today is a Quiet one. I have thrown a poor message together today.I never felt mentally right about todays cards and I have saved plenty inreserve for Saturday almost to the point of writing off today as a day for serious betting and deliberately trying to use today as a stepping stone to peak tomorrow. No Account Bet today. Just one selection. Its an each way double. Will pay 25/1 if both win so small stakes and I can concentrate on the Flagship day on Saturday to end a Great week.

Today's Selection

Each Way Double

Goodwood 4.45 - The Snatcher

Haydock 7.40 - Monsieur Reynard

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

Already reviewed MALGURU yesterday and the main selection last night BARNEY MCGREW Won backed from 10/1 to 8/1 providing a Vintage day. White Hot form at the Moment. Not going to get carried away. Plan of attack is simple. Shorter Friday Message. Have not got much today.
Free up more time for Saturday's cards. This particular Saturday is always horrendously busy and there is far too many races and it could be a dangerous day. This year my Saturday form has been brilliant - a far cry from 2007 when I seemed to struggle on the Flagship day and excel on
the Sunday. Its been a revese this year. I want to get Saturday right this week and I know from past experience that you need plenty of extra time as this Saturday swamps you if your not too careful. I didnt have much today anyway to be honest.


GOODWOOD 4:45 - GOODWOOD AERO CLUB STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 7f

7/2 The Snatcher, 5/1 Crystal Gazer, Jo´Burg, Mason Ette, 11/2 Idle Power, Starlight Gazer, 10/1 Lunces Lad, 16/1 Out After Dark,

* This is a 0-85All aged handicap over 7f
* Goodwood has had 30 similar races in May and June
* There has been 327 similar races at all tracks since 1993
* JO'BURG has problems as a seasonal debutant
* He also comes from a 3yo handicap
* Seasonal debutants that come from 3yo handicaps are poor
* Since 1993 they have a 1-82 record
* With 4 or more runs they have a 0-78 record
* What you dont want is an exposed horse trying to overcome this
* Since 1993 there has been 2843 handicaps between 5f and 12f in May-June
* Thats 2843 handicaps in Class 3 Class 4 and Class 5 between 5f and 12f
* Look at seasonal debutants that come from 3yo handicaps
* When they had 9 or more runs they had an appaling 1-284 record
* That sole winner (1-284) was Pleasure Time a Nottingham (5f) in 1997
* He had a big draw advantage that day
* Exposed horses really struggle to overcome such factors
* Thats why statistically JO'BURG should not win this race
* MAISON ETTE and CRYSTAL GAZER have 1 thing in common
* Both are 4 year old fillies coming from 6f or shorter
* In 327 similar races Fillies aged 4 that do that are just 1-94
* Only 15 of the 327 races went to 4yo fillies anyway
* All 18 lost in Goodwoods 30 races
* No 4yo filly won with the absence CRYSTAL GAZER has either
* OUT AFTER DARK is a seasonal debutant aged 7
* Only 6 horses his age and older won first time out
* Look at seasonal debutants coming from 6f races
* In 353 races they have a 0-64 record
* OUT AFTER DARK has that to overcome
* He has also seemed to need his seasonal debut anyway
* IDLE POWER is a 10 year old that hasnt won in 21 months
* He also has to come from a 6f race
* Thats a very hard thing to do for a 10 year old
* Only 2 managed it when aged 8 or more

SHORTLIST

THE SNATCHER - LUNCES LAD - STARLIGHT GAZER

Have to be confident one of these will win. The issues are Can THE SNATCHER perform to his best at this trip. Can LUNCES LAD perform on the ground. WillSTARLIGHT GAZER be at peak fitness. Normally I dont like them with 1 race
this year and an absence but I have found winners with that profile and this horse loves soft ground and won second time out in 2007 and 2006.

Tough to split these three. Going with THE SNATCHER as my highlighted horse in an each way double. I do however feel the other option here is to bet all 3 horses in Forecasts as I think the 1st and 2nd isnt impossible

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S N A P S H O T S

Goodwood 1.55 - La Troupe is a speculative hunch

Goodwood 2.25 - Tough . Only had the following as negatives
Goodwood 2.25 - Brave Quest - Cormorant Wharf - Lunar River -Montjeu´s Melody
Goodwood 2.25 - Dispatch Box -Mtoto Girl - Palmetto Poin
Goodwood 2.25 - I would select something else but havent a clue what

Goodwood 3.00

* This is a 6f Maiden Auction race for 2 year olds
* Goodwood have had just 4 renewals of this race
* All 4 horses were Males that were either unraced or ran within 15 days
* They were all placed lst time out and had 9st or less
* If that happens today then the winner will come from these 3
* WOOLSTON FERRY - MINDER - MEASUREMENT
* Trends are tight in these races
* HEAD DOWN doesnt make my shortlist albeit from a small sample size
* WOOLSTON FERRY - MINDER - MEASUREMENT is the shortlist


Brighton 3.10 - Lodi - Valhillen look fast ground bred
Brighton 3.10 - No surprise there to see money for Lieutenant Pigeon
Brighton 3.10 - I would have selected him to win in any preview

Goodwood 3.35

I would find it hard to oppose MASTER OF ARTS despite the double penalty. He is clearly a very well handicapped Mark Prescott horse and looks so typical with a host of entries this week. I dont see LONGEVITY whose just scraped home in a maiden beating him at level weights and I would suspect he would need to be almost an 85-90 rated horse to beat him and the handicapper says he is a 70 rated horse. I suspect MASTER OF ARTS will have too much for these.

Brighton 3.45

I am quite interested in SUPER FRANK at about 12/1. He is 0-11 on turf as his wins are on sand but I see backclass on Grass thats more than good enough to win this
race. I think you can argue he went off too fast at Newmarket last time in a far better race. I think on paper you can make a really strong argument on class for him. Would have prefered to have been "mesmorised" by his last run on Video but truth is I was not and thats the sort of thing stopping him from being on the account. Several here
may not be fit like Finsbury - Pragmatist - Tipsy Prince- Lady Lorins -Valeesha.

Haydock 6.40 - I think the winner will have run within 2 weeks

Haydock 7.10 - Looks an each way double race to me with Servoca the pick
Haydock 7.10 - If he was 5/2 or bigger I would consider the e/w single

Haydock 7.40 - Only 5 renewals but I think these areas are favoured
Haydock 7.40 - You want under 9 runs - ideally 2 + this year and a lightweight
Haydock 7.40 - All 5 ran within 15 days and were 1-2-3-4 last time
Haydock 7.40 - For me its between 4 horses . I would favour 2 over the other 2
Haydock 7.40 - Monsieur Reynard and Discati picked over Espy and Helping Hand
Haydock 7.40 - MONSIEUR REYNARD looks best - fancied him a lot last time.

Towcester 8.00 - SEA EAGLE has a solid look to him and I fancy him
Towcester 8.00 - Possible e/w double horse but I think he'll win anyway

Haydock 8.10 - Bit too much strength in depth in this maiden for comfort
Haydock 8.10 - Only strong stat is oppose unraced horses like Deer Lake

Towcester 9.00 - Cordage has a weak statistical profile with 1 run
Towcester 9.00 - I would oppose him with something e/w like Thistle
Haydock 9.10 - North Parade should win this
Haydock 9.10 - Would be very surprised if Erdeli - Evelith Regent - Bocciani won
Haydock 9.10 - I think the 1st and 2nd should be North Parade - Dubai's Wonder
Haydock 9.10 - If the favourites too short for some the forecast will pay better

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