Monday 7th July

No Account Bet

Todays Selection

Ripon 6.50

JUST SAM 9/2



Making slow progress at the moment. Its slower than I would like but it is progress and that has to be worth something. I think today's message shows signs of a bit
of weariness and fatigue. I think I will leave tomorrow alone and Not plan a message. I will have a look and see what there is but that particular Pontefract card is always a Killer and the All Weather may not offer much. I may just do a quick analysis free email with just any selections. I do see a big advantage in waiting for the July Meeting on wednesday at Newmarket where the trends are strong. Either way consider tomorrow as a quiet day at best and possibly a no message day.

I think for all my flaws my strongest weapons come in understanding Fitness. That sounds strange for a man who drives 100 yards to the local shop but with Horses its a huge factor and JUST SAM is considerably fitter than any horse in the 6.50 at Ripon. He probably isnt as talented as the shorter priced favourite but you dont want Talent in these races. You want experience and fitness and with 2 runs in 3 days JUST SAM has a massive chance of winning today. I wont find another horse today at similar odds that has such a weak level of opposition and I Think a slight drop in trip helps him. I should probably go each way but I personally dont think I need to. JUST SAM in my opinion will win the 6.50 simply as he has a level of fitness and experience than nothing else in the race comes close to. One Quarter account bet strength and if she wins as I think she will she will pay for the next full bet.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


The saver (Patavium Prince) won in yesterdays bet with our selection Millfield in second. You should have broken level on the race. No profit but we didnt lose anything and we got the race pretty accurate. Whilst you can say that Millfied finished well an would probably have won in a few more strides had the race gone on even longer then my Negative Albaraari might have done them both and that would have been worse case scenario. In the end pleased the Negative lost and I think we staked it well in the end as we lost nothing. I dont like giving savers and I know you dont like getting them but it made sense yesterday and a score draw seemed a fair result. Hopefully the Tennis will have made some of you a nice profit/ Todays Afternoon cards look tough to me and I want to skip most of them and concentrate on the night cards.


MUSSELBURGH 3:15 - IME COST EFFECTIVE MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-5yo) 7f30y

7/4 Forrest Star, 5/2 Infinity Bond, 4/1 Billy Cadiz, 7/1 Hester Brook, 8/1 Rascasse, 33/1 Cranworth Blaze, 50/1 Cabin Gate.

This is a Maiden race over 7 furlongs. I dont see HESTER BROOK winning. Not only is he a 45 rated 4 year old who has to give weight to horses rated significantly better and he also has the problem of coming down from 12f to 7f. He really shouldnt be able to win this and I would argue against the other older horses as well. Looks a 4 horse race. BILLY CADIZ doesnt need to be anything special to win but is unraced and I would rather take him on. FORREST STAR and INFINITY BOND are very closely matched and hard to split. Personally I would prefer INFINITY BOND from that pair as a male horse. There may be one at a bigger price in RASCASSE who ran reasonably well in a race he had no chance in last time. The step down in trip should help and I note he is related to a lot of winners. Like his overall profile. May be worth a try at good odds on RASCASSE.

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MUSSELBURGH 3:45 BETFAIR BETTING AS IT SHOULD BE/LE GARCON D'OR HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-80) 5f

3/1 Handsome Cross, 7/2 Blazing Heights, 4/1 Sandwith, 5/1 Rothesay Dancer, 7/1 Windjammer, 10/1 Inspainagain,
14/1 Chookie Heiton, Lake Chini, 66/1 Mutayam, 100/1 Seafield Towers, 200/1 Mister Marmaduke.

This is a 0-76 rated handicap over 5 furlongs. HANDSOME CROSS has only ran once since September 2007 and thats a potential problem especially when you consider he is a 7 year old. I dont like once raced horses especially
in 5f sprint handicaps. There has been 385 similar handicaps in July and it says it all that only 1 horse aged 7 or more won with just the one race this season. That puts HANDSOME CROSS at a disadvantage. Trying to find the correct alternative isnt easy. I was pretty happy that for good reasons this should concern only 4 runners. These four are Blazing Heights, Sandwith, Rothesay Dancer and Windjammer. I wasnt too happy that ROTHESAY DANCER is the
only filly. She won last year but these were under different circumstances. She had ran the day before giving her a big edge. She had a lot less weight last year and met many other fillies. This year she still has a chance but not so obvious a chance. In a dilemma with BLAZING HEIGHTS. The issue is whether he is ready to win this year after 4 runs this season. I didnt think he was last time when I oppose him behind The Nifty Fox when he was 4th. That run didnt convince me he was ready to win this year especially as all his wins came September onwards. However you can argue his 4th race last season when second here in a 0-82 would be good enough to win. What I also like about BLAZING HEIGHTS is that if I am right that HANDSOME CROSS isnt fit - and right to assume Chookie Heiton wont win as a 10 year old seasonal debutant then BLAZING HEIGHTS has only a 0-76 class field to beat and he should be able to manage that. I did question if he was ready to win and I am not convinced about that and came down on the side of SANDWITH in the race.

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MUSSELBURGH 5:15 SALWICK FLYER IRISH MAFIA HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-65) 1m

7/2 Grit, Tamasou, 6/1 Bourse, 10/1 Casino Night, Habbie Heights, Willyn, 12/1 Flying Sommelier, Howards Hope, 16/1 Midnight Oasis, .

This is an 8f Handicap for 3 year olds. I was quite drawn to BOURSE with Topweight. I found weakness in a few
of his rivals based on 77 similar races. None of the 77 similar winners came via Nurseries like HOWARDS HOPE. I
think a fillly with only 4 runs stepping up in trip has plenty to prove and thats what HABBIE HEIGHTS faces
although I have found one similar winner with her profile much as they dont score well. FLYING SOMMELIER
comes from a 6f race which is a big problem MIDNIGHT OASIS looked weak with 1 run that season. None of the
really fancied runners could be seen as negatives which doesnt help much. I quite like BOURSE. Two runs ago he
moved from John Wainwright to R Johnson. On his first run for the stable he ran from bottomweight in a 0-84
handicap off a mark of 66. He now drops in class. The Handicapper has dropped him 2lbs. He is able to run here off 64 and faces a 0-62 class race which is considerably weaker class than he was just come from. He has won a similar class race this year over Course and Distance. BOURSE looks interesting.

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I didnt like much else at Musselburgh. In the Nursery at 4.15 I would have gone with the Topweight CUTTING COMMENTS in this race as he could be the class horse of the race but didnt have any negatives about his rivals that would allow me to say that with more confidence.

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WINDSOR 6.30 - FAY WATTS 25TH BIRTHDAY APPRENTICE HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 6f

6/1 Cheap Street, Makabul, Mandarin Spirit, 8/1 Bold Argument, 10/1 Blessed Place, Shot To Fame, 12/1 Memphis Man, Unlimited, 14/1 Blue Java, Hart Of Gold, Kelamon, Linda Green, 16/1 Obe Royal, 20/1 Our Fugitive, Sailor King, 25/1 The Cayterers.

* This is an Apprentice Handicap over 6 furlongs
* There has only been 10 Apprentice races like this in July
* The sample size is too small really to be very confident
* There are only 2 things that you have to have going for you in these races
* You have to be Fit and In Form
* The Following 3 statistics in these 10 races strongly suggest its important
* Horses that did not run within 15 days had a 0-63 record
* Horses that were beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 0-44 record
* Horses that were not 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out had a 0-79 record
* Several of these have absenmces I wouldnt want
* CHEAP STREET - KELAMON - SAILOR KING
* I would want at least 3 runs this season
* BLUE JAVA - THE CAYTERERS lack that
* LINDA GREEN wouldnt appeal as the only female
* OBE ROYAL didnt run well enough last time
* Several of these have ran well enough last time to consisder
* Many of these have 2-3 weeks break which is forgivable
* I felt BLESSED PLACE with a run just 6 days ago looked best
* He is probably the fittest horse in the race
* He has 12 wins to his name and a recent run is important to him
* His 12 wins came after absences of 5 4 4 2 4 4 9 7 2 7 19 and 1 days
* He has a run over Course and Distance that shows he is capable of taking this
* He was 4th here in June in a Better race than this
* That was with just 1 run this season
* Now fitter and having won for Apprentices I like him in this race
* BLESSED PLACE is the horse with most ticks in the box

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RIPON 6:50 - MARKET PLACE SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo) 1m1f170y

5/6 Lizzie Wiggins, 9/2 Jakam, Just Sam, 10/1 Carry On Cleo, 20/1 Bond Scissorsister, Spabreaksdotcom,
25/1 Templetuohy Max, 33/1 Caught In Paradise, Graze On And On, Sun In Splendour, 50/1 Caffrey Kelly,
Mchepple.

* This is a 3yo selling race just short of 10f
* There has been 19 of these races in July
* 8 of the 19 races were this renewal at Ripon
* Experience is an issue in these races
* Horses with under 5 career runs were just 1-54 in the 19 races
* All 8 Ripon winners ran at least 5 times before
* All Ripon winners had at least 3 runs that season
* Those that did not had a 0-34 record
* In this race fillies with under 7 runs were 0-25
* Clearly LIZZIE WIGGINS is the best horse in the race
* Her profile is that she is a little underraced
* She is better than JUST SAM but at a disadvantage to her
* JUST SAM has more experience
* She also has 2 runs in the last 3 days and that looks interesting
* JUST SAM could have a huge fitness advantage here
* Sample sizes are small so care is needed
* I would not be able to rule out CARRY ON CLEO
* She is impossible to rate coming from Juvenile Hurdles
* I feel a bit uncomfortable about a profile like that
* Its also her 1st run for a new stable which is another concern
* JAKAM is technically on the inexperienced side
* You can forgive him 4 runs but he hasnt run in a while either
* JUST SAM for me is comfortably the fittest horse
* I think he is great value at his current odds.

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WINDSOR 7.00 + 7.30

The juvenile Maiden at 7pm isnt easy as its full of unraced horses. There has been 18 Windsor
maidens like this and unraced fillies had a poor 1-55 record in these 18 races. That would put me off the likes of IMPRESSIONIST ART and RUASGREYASME. Alternately Forced for a pickI would consider DESERT ICON or CAWDOR who just look a bit safer

In the Handicap at 7.30 I only had angles against a few and none strong against the market leaders. Horses that had weak profiles included Astania - Muharjam - Karky Schultz - Penchesco - Epsom Salts and Rondeua. Could make a case against all these. The rest all have chances for me. COOLE DODGER probably comes out as the strongest runner. He has a penalty for winning. In 151 similar races there were 27 horses that had penalties and 13 of those won. Thats a very high strike rate for a race like
this and around 7/1 he makes a bit of appeal when almost half of 27 penalised horses won.

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RIPON 7.20 + 7.50

I didnt want to oppose SWEET APPLAUSE but felt she was correctly priced at 4/5. You dont know the strength of the unraced opposition. This is an Auction race and it wont be automatic that she can give weight to some of her rivals but its hard to see which ones can stop her winning. Wouldnt want Kutanga as she is at level weights with the favourite. Lunar Romance may have a chance but rain may
not help him and unraced horses dont have a good enough record to risk against a favourite that has tasted Group class races. I think SWEET APPLAUSE is correctly priced but isnt a banker.

Not overkeen on the 7.50pm race. ROWAN RIO came out weak statistically with just 2 runs. I think there is a doubt about RED MERLIN getting the trip. RED LILY is a filly with a months absence and that wont be easy. I thought on paper PRECISION BREAK had a massive chance and was a horse you have to shortlist. I also like last weeks Account Bet winner MEZZANISI. We backed him last week at Lingfield when he won a Maiden race. Back into handicaps today I have found several similar winners and am more than happy there is no reason why he cant win. I think MEZZANISI has a good chance of winning this and he would be my choice with a saver on Precision Break possible as well.

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RIPON 8:20 - COMMERCIAL FIRST MORTGAGES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 6f

2/1 Wotashirtfull, 9/2 Maimoona, 9/1 Irish Pearl, 10/1 Piscean, 16/1 Cristal Clear, 25/1 Mey Blossom.

* This is a 0-89 handicap over 6 furlongs
* Ripon has had 15 renewals of this race but it has been upgraded
* There has been 52 of these handicaps in July at class 2 and class 3
* CRISTAL CLEAR and IRISH PEARL are fillies absent 54 and 52 days
* In 52 similar handicaps Fillies that have not ran in 31 days were 0-37
* Horses with absences dont score well when as exposed as these anyway
* MAIMOONA is also a filly absent 39 days
* Thats not going to help her but she also comes from a 5f race
* In 52 similar races no horse that came from 5f to win was as inexperienced
* If you take the 100 handicaps (6f) since 1990 in class 2-3-4
* Horses that came from 5f races that had under 5 runs were 0-18
* Only 1 filly defied a months absence in those 100 handicaps
* None came from 5f like MAIMOONA or was as inexperienced
* WOTASHIRTFULL has won 0-66 and 0-73 handicaps
* This is a better class of race though but his opposition is flawed
* WOTASHIRTFULL just gets the vote over Mamoona
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RIPON 8.50 - 8:50 BONDGATE HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 1m

11/4 San Antonio, 7/2 Aussie Blue, 9/2 Emirate Isle, 7/1 Hurlingham, 10/1 Volaticus, 14/1 Getrah, 16/1 Flashy Max
Zabougg, 20/1 Reel Buddy Blaze, Steel Grey, 25/1 Admiralcollingwood, 33/1 Kadia.

* This is a 0-70 handicap for all aged horses
* Ripon has 18 renewals of this race
* VOLATICUS is rejected aged 7 with only 1 run this season
* STEEL GREY has an absence thats unlikely to be overcome
* ADMIRALCOLLINGWOOD has to come from 6f
* Horses aged 3 won 3 of the 18 Ripon races
* The ones with under 3 runs this year struggled
* REEL BUDDY BLAZE has that to overcome
* The lightweights like FLASHY MAX also struggled
* Dont want ZABOUGG coming from a 3yo handicap
* I dont see KADIA or GETRAH as good enough
* This should be between 4 horses
* San Antonio - Aussie Blue - Emirate Isle -Hurlingham
* Not convinced EMIRATE ISLE is ready to win
* AUSSIE BLUE has just beaten SAN ANTONIO in a close finish
* At the revised weights many will see SAN ANTONIO as likely to reverse form
* I am not sure myself
* SAN ANTONIO has 10st and this race hasnt gone to many high weights
* Horses with 9st 11lbs or more had a poor 1-20 record in 18 Renewals
* That sole winner was last year but overall they havent done well
* Penalty carriers like AUSSIE BLUE have an excellent record
* I wouldnt be surprised if AUSSIE BLUE won again

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